An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Population Mobility Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Economic Growth-Based on the SPVAR Model

Based on the inter-provincial panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019,and incorporating geospatial factors,a spatial panel vector autoregressive(SPVAR)model consisting of population mobility,industrial structure upgrading,and economic growth is constructed.The space-time impulse response function is used to analyze the space-time conduction of exogenous variables on the impact of three endogenous variables.The study found that first,the population influx barely benefited the industrial structure upgrading and economic growth.Second,the upgrading of the industrial structure would aggravate the population mobility in the province,causing low-level laborers to leave the province in shortterm,but in long-term,there would be influx of talents.Third,the economic growth in developed regions plays a significant role in promoting the industrial development of their province and population-rich provinces,but it has less impact on provinces with high-level industrial structure.Finally,policy recommendations are provided in regard to the benign interaction among population mobility,industrial structure upgrading,and economic growth in addition to clarifying the idea of economic development,implementing correct population policies,and promoting the coordinated regional development.

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Human Capital Structure and Economic Growth:From the Perspective of New Structural Economics

The Chinese economy has achieved remarkable development over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up.However,with the narrowing of potential for efficiency improvement from resources reallocation and changes in population age structure,the Chinese economy has moved from high-speed growth to high-quality development.In this setting,understanding factor endowment and comparative advantages of the economy from a perspective of human capital structure so as to enhance industrial structure adaptability by riding the trend is of significance for cultivating new driving force for economic development.This paper,following a theoretical paradigm of new structural economics,demonstrates how human capital structure matches industrial structure and the presence of optimal human capital structure using mathematical deduction.On this basis,national level panel data and instrumental variables are adopted for generalized method of moments,the results of which shows that there are varied impacts on economic growth in light of different human capital structure characteristics.The proportions of high-level human capital and medium-level human capital boost economic development,while that of low-level human capital has an inhibitory effect on economic growth.The policy implication of this study is that large economies should diversify efforts as per different human capital structure characteristics in terms of development need of tapping growth impetus from human capital structure improvement.It is of equal importance to raise the proportion of high and medium human capital in order to stimulate economic growth and to cut the proportion of low human capital that hinders economic development.

A research on the evolvement of industrial structure and economic growth of He'nan Province,China

This paper, based on the investigation of the statistics in the years of 1980-2005, using Shift-Share Method model, studies systematically the relation between the evolution of industrial structure and regional economic growth in five economic regions in He＇nan to offer the foundation of policy for optimizing the industrial structure and promoting regional economic development in phase, and thereby comes to the conclusions： （1） the industrial structure level of He＇nan, in comparison with the evolution of the industrial structure across the country, remains low, but yet the evolutional tendency of industrial structure in He＇nan complies with the Clark taw of the industrial structure evolution; （2） the spatial difference of He＇nan industrial structure evolution is comparatively large, （3） the evolution of industrial structure in He nan that influences economic growth can be categorized into three types： in eastern and southern regions, the shift-share of the industrial structure is negative, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative, in western and central regions, the shift.share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is positive; in northern regions; the shift-share of the industrial structure is positive, and the shift-share model of competitiveness is negative： （4） the evolution of industriai structure influences greatly the development of the regional economy of He nan As the results of the researches shown, it can innovation of He＇nan tra：ditional industry with high-tech the vast development of the tertiary industry, the expansion of He＇nan overall level o industrial structure, the growth of deep-processing manufacturing of agricultural products, and the increase of He＇nan agricultural products subsidiary value Will be the strategic choices of the rearrangement of He＇nan industrial structure.

The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China:from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.

A Study on Investment Structure of Fixed Assets and Regional Economic Growth

Nowadays,it has been in the period of rapidly developing China’s economy.Since the financial crisis in 2008,China has paid more and more attention to investing in fixed assets,and the growth rate of investing in fixed asset is also rising.However,when promoting regional economic growth,if we only pay attention to the total amount of fixed asset investment,there will inevitably exist some blindness and lack of sustainability.Therefore,the study between the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth is quite important.China has a vast territory and many regions.The investment structure of fixed assets in different regions is also different,so the influence on economic growth is also different.This paper analyzes the investment structure of fixed assets and regional economic growth,and help realize the rapid growth of regional economy by recognizing the current situation of China's investment structure of fixed assets.

The Relationship Analysis between The Economic Growth and The Industrial Structure in Shandong Province

There is a close relationship between the economic growth and the transformation of industrial structure.This paper states the current situation of the economic growth and the industrial structure in Shandong Province,and analyses the relationship between them.Finally it proposes countermeasures which can help achieve a coordinated development of the economic growth and the industrial structure in Shandong Province.

Supply-Side Structural Reforms and China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.

China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

Chinese and US S&T Innovation Policies and Their Effects on Economic Growth Potentials

Since the eruption of the recent global financial crisis, major countries have been pushing forward structural reforms with science and technology （S＆T） innovation at the heart. Since taking office, US President Donald Trump has adopted an ＂America First＂ strategy but has yet to specify a clear S＆T innovation policy. However, Trump＇s current policies have already affected S＆T innovation and his planned budget cuts will impact US growth potentials. Compared with the US, China is steadily implementing its innovation-driven development strategy with significant improvement in S＆ T innovation that increasingly supports economic growth. To spur future economic growth, China should steadfastly follow its S＆T innovation strategy, promote the utilization of S＆T innovation results, boost its economic growth potentials and make the most of global innovation resources.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of regional sustainable economic growth drivers of China

Intellectual capital(IC)has become a universal performance indicator for the socioeconomic development of countries and regions.Based on a review ofnational intellectualcapital(NIC)and regional intellectualcapital(RIC)evaluation literature,we used the regional intellectualcapitalindicator(RICI)as a model for China’s RIC evaluation to indirectly understand China’s potential economic growth drivers.Specifically,we collected statisticaldata of31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2004 to 2016to measure RICI and analyze its dynamic characteristics from temporal and spatial perspectives.In this paper,Delphi analysis was used to construct RICI model,and cluster analysisand exploratory spatial data analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of RICI in China.The results showedthat RICI,which represents China’s overall economic growth drivers,increases annuallyand is consistent with economic developmentlevelduring the study period.Regarding the geo-spatial space,RICI follows the trend of“high in the east and low in the west”,gradually decreasing from eastern to western China.ForRIC structure,the shape of the radar chart of IC structure located in the eastern coastal areas is usually biased towards strong external relational capital,while that in western China is generally biased towards structural capital.For spatial correlation,China’s RICI has dependence on geographical adjacent space and economic space.Our research can provide policy suggestions for the sustainable development of regional economy from an IC perspective.

Thailand's economic growth and structural development projections in the context of environmental control

Projections for 20 years of economic growth and change in the structure of the Thai economy were made for 180 sectors using a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model to compare the following four scenarios:(1) standard growth with infinite supply of factors,(2) finite land supply,(3) fixed use of agricultural chemicals,and(4) combined finite land supply with fixed use of agricultural chemicals.The computable projections suggest that the economic cost of hypothetical environmental control in agriculture is small and further weakened by urbanization.The computed structural development points to efficiency improvements specific to sectors to return the economy to balanced growth.

Double dividend of carbon intensity:environmental-quality improvement and sustainable economic growth

This paper established an equilibrium model including representative household,government,and eight industries,and two different environmental policy tools such as carbon intensity and carbon cap were added into the model.The paper points out that the carbon intensity policy imposed on major high-emission industries achieved double dividend of environmentalquality improvement and sustainable economic growth under the condition of proper constraint target.This result supports the environmental Porter hypothesis.This paper finds out that the double dividend is due to the fact that environmental governance policy leads to the rising price of resources and demand of labors,resulting in an effective redistribution of production factors among industries and sustainable economic growth.Furthermore,this paper estimates the marginal effect of economic structure on carbon emission and carbon intensity and provides targeted suggestions.

Testing the relationship between financial sector output,employment and economic growth in North Cyprus

Sound and efficient functioning of financial systems is critical to the economic prosperity of any economy.This paper investigates the tripartite relationship between financial sector output,employment and economic growth in North Cyprus.Using relevant time series data analysis(within the framework of structural breaks and VECM),we found that financial sector output in North Cyprus is sensitive to both internal and external shocks in that its economy is well linked with the global economy,in spite of the political isolation sustained since the bifurcation of Cyprus into North and South.The study further documents evidence of the neutrality hypothesis in the finance-growth nexus.The underlying variables were weakly connected in the short-run.However,economic growth responded to the short-run shocks and handled the equilibrating process of reverting to the long-run trend and thus,the demand following hypothesis is confirmed in the long-run.

Local Officials' Tactical Adjustment of Economic Growth Targets under China's Coordinated Regional Development Policy

This paper intends to examine Chinese local officials' behavior for economic growth after the central government's implementation of economic restructuring policy.Theoretically,this paper has demonstrated that when the central government credibly shifts its priority from overall national growth to regional economic restructuring,it will adopt an economic policy in favor of less developed region and local government officials will tactically adjust growth targets accordingly;when the restructuring policy has reached a wide enough coverage of benefit,officials of developed region will relatively lower growth targets for their respective jurisdictions.Empirically,this paper employs the growth targets laid out in the provincial Government Work Reports between 2001 and 2012 and the growth targets set in the five-year plans for the period between 1996 and 2015,and has discovered that changes of inter-provincial gaps are dominated by growth targets;after the central government has launched the program of regional economic restructuring on a full scale,developed provinces start to lower growth targets set for their respective jurisdictions.This paper's discoveries are robust and provide an explanation to the new tendency of China's economic growth in recent years,i.e.,economic growth of eastern region slows down,interprovincial gaps narrow and the central government has adopted the policy of coordinated regional development in favor of inland regions.

Will Tertiary Industry Be the Drivin Force of China＇s Economic Growth？

Based on the analysis of inner motive of industrial structure evolution in developed countries after Worm War II and the contribution of primary, secondary and tertiary industries to economic growth at similar economic development stage as China is, this paper argues that the rising proportion of tertiary industry in developed countries after World War II is mainly caused by the price hikes in tertiary industry. During a similar economic development stage as China is, the secondary industry in both the U.S. and Japan contributed more than 60% to economic growth, thus became the driving force in real sense. This paper analyzes the change of industrial structure after 1978 and points out the gap in industrial structure when calculated by fixed price and current year＇s price. From 1978 to 2009, China＇s industrial priority was mainly transferred from primary industry to tertiary industry infixed price terms but shifted from primary industry to secondary industry in terms of current year＇s price. With a contribution rate of 68.8%, China＇s secondary industry is the chief driver of economic growth since 1978 and will continue to be so till 2020. As the tertiary industry can hardly be such a driver, the increase in tertiary industry proportion is insignificant to real economic growth, so it is not necessary for China to put tertiary industry as the starting point of industrial upgrading. Instead, China shall try every means to improve the international competitiveness of secondary industry so as to promote the qualitative and rapid growth of Chinese economy by tapping into its quality-oriented demographic dividend.

The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth

In endogenous growth theories, with the endogeneity of technology and its inclusion into the model, the new technologies produced by individuals equipped with knowledge, skills, and experience by using this technology were regarded as the human capital investments of countries. Later, the effects of human capital on economic growth became a significant topic in the empirical literature. In this study, initially the basic approaches to human capital were theoretically investigated. Then, the relationships between human capital and economic growth were analyzed with cointegration and causality tests by using the data of Turkey for the period 1961-2011. Our findings revealed a dual causality relationship between human capital and economic growth variables.

Nexus Between Financial Liberalization, Balance Of Payment And Economic Growth In Nigeria

The objectives of this paper are to examine the nexus between financial liberalization,balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria.The scope of this study due to data availability,especially on measures of balance of payment,covers the period of 1986-2017.This study adopts econometrics techniques of analysis by using Panel Unit Root Tests and Co-integration analysis which is used to determine the long run relationship among economic variables.To test the co-integration relationship this study followed the system proposed by Pedroni(1991)who expands the Engle and Granger[9]two stage technique to heterogeneous board information structure.The study adopts annual time series secondary data for the period of 1986 to 2017.Balance of payment,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness,Real Gross Domestic Product growth,and Term of Trade,all data used were obtained from the World Development Indicators.The findings of this study revealed that an increase in exchange rate,interest rate,inflation rate,and trade openness have negatively affect economic growth.Hence,changes or movements in these variables do not necessarily prompt the liberalization decision in the real sector.Therefore,the need to address balance of payment is important,in accordance with the low rate of development in Nigeria.We therefore,recommend that government should monitor both Fiscal and Monetary policies’variables that can significantly influence economic growth in Nigeria.That is,adequate balance of payment that can encourage appropriate financial liberalization should be put in place with,Official Exchange Rate,Inflation rate(%),Balance of trade,Trade openness.