Safety of Dams： A Pathological Approach of Qualitative and Quantitative Risks

Dams are critical and essential elements in any infrastructure and, in front of accidents occurred in many countries, it is extremely important to know the risk of these structures. Inserted in this context, it was found in the technical literature, methods and tools capable of measuring the exposure value by means of indicators. In the study, the highlights were 12 methods of qualitative, semiquantitative and quantitative risk analysis, representing an overview of risk analysis methods available in the literature with potential use in dams, that it has been done into electronic spreadsheets. The case study is performed on a sample of concrete dam and earth/rockfill built and operated by Eletrobr^s Furnas Company, supported by documentary research, projects, field inspections and interviews with experts. After applying the methods and the analysis thereof, has been prepared the Eletrobras Fumas dam risk analysis method which is characterized by adapting the criteria analyzed to the reality of the company＇s dams and it was also performed the portfolio risk analysis of 18 dams. In spite of the variety and subjectivity of qualitative and semiquantitative methods, the results show that they tend to converge on the analysis of dam based on risk. The application methodology demonstrates the feasibility assessment stage, covering the preliminary analysis for portfolio dams, followed by formal and individual risk analyzes for the most critical structures. These results confirm the applicability of risk analysis techniques, contributing to the consolidation of this toot as fundamental in the dam safety.

QFII in China Security Market： Status Quo and Investment Strategy

This paper firstly introduces the definition and features of QFII, and then mainly analyzes the QFII＇s portfolio performance and investment yield, as welt as stock market. And at last, it refers to the impacts of QFII＇s companies and supervision systems in China security market. the investment ideas and strategies of QFII in China investment styles and strategies on investors, listed

How to Construct a Lower Risk FOF Based on Correlation Network? The Method of Principal Component Risk Parity Asset Allocation

In order to build a low-risk Fund of Funds(FOF), from the perspective of correlation, the principal component factor is used to improve the traditional risk parity model. Principal component analysis is used to decompose the underlying assets and generate unrelated principal component factors,and then the authors can construct a principal component risk parity portfolio. The proposed empirical results based on China’s mutual fund market show that the performance of principal component risk parity portfolio(PCRPP) is better than that of equal weight portfolio(EWP) and traditional risk parity portfolio(RPP). That is to say, not only the PCRPP in this paper has much lower risk than EWP and RPP, but also slightly better than EWP and RPP in terms of average return. Moreover, the study of dividing the underlying assets shows that the PCRPP in this paper is not sensitive to the underlying assets. The PCRPP in this paper is better than EWP and RPP for both the better performing funds and the worse performing funds. In addition, the empirical results on dynamic portfolio adjustments show that it is not appropriate to adjust asset allocation too frequently when the expected rate of return is calculated using the arithmetic mean.

The Convergence of Set-Valued Scenario Approach for Downside Risk Minimization

Scenario approach is a widely used tool in portfolio risk management,however,it often runs into dilemma when determining the distribution of asset returns with insufficient information,which will be used to simulate the scenarios.Also the quality of generated scenarios are not guaranteed even when the distribution of asset returns is known exactly.A set-valued scenario approach was proposed by Zhu,et al.(2015)as a possible remedy.As a necessary supplement of the results proposed by Zhu,et al.(2015),this paper theoretically investigates the convergent property of the numerical solution based on the set-valued scenario approach under the condition that the underlying distribution is known.