Resilience assessment and optimization method of city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period

The post-earthquake emergency period,which is a sensitive time segment just after an event,mainly focuses on saving life and restoring social order.To improve the seismic resilience of city road networks,a resilience evaluation method used in the post-earthquake emergency period is proposed.The road seismic damage index of a city road network can consider the influence of roads,bridges and buildings along the roads,etc.on road capacity after an earthquake.A function index for a city road network is developed,which reflects the connectivity,redundancy,traffic demand and traffic function of the network.An optimization model for improving the road repair order in the post-earthquake emergency period is also developed according to the resilience evaluation,to enable decision support for city emergency management and achieve the best seismic resilience of the city road network.The optimization model is applied to a city road network and the results illustrate the feasibility of the resilience evaluation and optimization method for a city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period.

Geospatial Analysis of Flood Vulnerability Levels Based on Physical Characteristics and Resilience Capacity of Peri-Urban Settlements in Nigeria

Flooding is becoming a yearly reoccurring event in many communities and cities in Nigeria, leading to the destruction of properties and deaths;hence, we must take measures to either prepare for the impact or curb the occurrence. The study identified flood vulnerability levels of communities in Isoko North LGA based on physical environmental domains such as land use, elevation, and proximity to river channel (drainage) using geospatial techniques. Also, attributes that could contribute to the resilience capacity building of the communities were assessed. From the study, 73.93% of the entire area is moderately and highly vulnerable to flood, while among the communities, seventeen (17) are categorized as moderately vulnerable, and four (4) are lowly vulnerable. The overall resilience capacity of the communities indicated can build a substantial capacity towards community resilience (3.02, 0.06). However, there is a need to encourage collaboration with stakeholders to improve mitigation action and enhance various shortcomings toward resilience capacity building.

Can Integrated Water Resources Management Increase Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change Adaptation? A Critical Review

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is now a global paradigm. While conceptions of IWRM principles vary between contexts, it primarily aims to ensure more coordinated management between different aspects of water issues such as water quality, land management and habitat protection. However, one increasingly significant cross-cutting management issue is climate change adaptation which presents multiple problems for IWRM approaches. This paper therefore seeks to gauge the extent to which IWRM principles can, and indeed are, enhancing the adaptive capacity of water management through reducing vulnerability and increasing the resilience of social-ecological systems. A review of research into vulnerability and resilience to date suggests that IWRM has significant potential for supporting some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity. However, despite IWRM being promoted as an attractive approach, our assessment argues that IWRM, as currently practiced, cannot readily enhance flexibility and adaptability, which is required for climate change adaptation. Normative recommendations for future policy are then provided.

Measurement and influencing factors of urban traffic ecological resilience in developing countries: A case study of 31 Chinese cities

An urban traffic ecosystem is a spatial structure composed of air,population,vehicles,roads,green spaces,and regions.Traffic ecological resilience is a critical issue in high-quality urban development.From the perspective of system optimization,it is important to study the level of urban traffic ecological resilience and analyze its influencing factors.In this study,we evaluated traffic ecological resilience,characterized its spatio-temporal differentiation,and explored its influencing factors by constructing a system of urban traffic ecological resilience and by analyzing the environmental protection and urban construction data in 31 Chinese cities during 2011-2018.By conducting Kernel density analysis,standard deviation ellipse,comprehensive weight determination,panel data regression analysis,andχ2test,we found that traffic ecological resilience was low on the whole and exhibited the temporal trend of“decreasing first and then increasing”and the spatial characteristic of“high in the east,second in the middle,and low in the west”.The cities with high traffic ecological resilience density values were located in Southeast China and tended to move from northwest to southeast.Governance capability,market activity,technological innovation capability,opening degree,and financial resources had significant effects on urban traffic ecological resilience.Finally,we gave some suggestions for improving the urban traffic ecological resilience in Chinese cities as well as other developing countries in the world.

Case Study: Reviewing Methods of Assessing Community Adaptive Capacity for Jefferson County, Texas

With the increased attention on community sustainability and resilience, different poles have developed voicing similarities and/or differences of the two concepts. This study quantifies adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, Texas, one of the coastal communities at the Gulf of Mexico having some of the worse adverse effects. Review of existing methods is presented. Analyses were conducted for the last ten years: from 2005 to 2014. Interestingly, statistical analyses showed that the County’s socio-economic profile or indicators have not changed throughout the ten years, but the environmental, institutional, and infrastructure indicators have. Focusing on one location magnifies the adaptive capacity of Jefferson County, the temporal aspect of both perspectives, and the relevance of existing methods to this community with its peculiarities. Future assessments need to be based on primary data collected through participatory engagement of all stakeholders. This calls for attempts to quantify adaptive capacity using the comparatively more challenging deductive reasoning, which would allow for incorporation of more risks and thus higher readiness.

A Nationwide Approach on Measuring Households’ Resilience by Constructing Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Rural Bangladesh

This study developed households’ Climate Resilient Livelihoods Index (CRLI) in Bangladesh. CRLI indicators were selected based on the Adequacy of Human livelihood conditions for Well-being and Development (AHEAD) framework and FAO resilience tools. The study was designed on cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 26,925 rural households. At first, we performed logistic regression to gauge the significance and intensity of different livelihood indicators on any specific livelihood indicator. Secondly, we scored each household with the set criteria of different livelihoods accessibility, if any households fulfill the set criteria was “scored 1” and if not “scored 0”. After scoring the households, eight different scores for each household were summed up to construct a composite score of “CRLI”. If any household scored 0 - 2 was considered as low resilient, if any household scored 3 - 5 was considered as moderate resilient and if any household scored 6 - 8 was considered as highly resilient. Additionally, we used ArcMap to visualize the percentage of households in districts with different resilience categories. Findings revealed that nationally 1.7% of households were low resilient, 60% of households were moderate resilient and only 11.48% of households were high resilient. More specifically, only 1.7% of households failed to secure any of the climate-resilient livelihood indicators, and only 0.06% of households secured all of them. Findings also revealed that food secured households had better adaptive capacity due to ensuring access to basic services, more financial capabilities, lower dependency ratio, and physical connectivity. In contrast, households with social safety net coverage had food insecurity, less financial ability, higher dependency ratio, lower education, and income sources. Among 64 counties, Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Chuadanga, Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Narail, Kurigram, Sunamganj, Jamalpur, and Netrokona were the most vulnerable in terms of low CRLI. On the other hand, more than 25% of high resilient households were located in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Munshiganj counties. These findings would propel the government to devise appropriate steps in terms of more investment in area-specific local communities for enhancing regional resilience.

组织韧性:城市社区风险治理的机制优化

面对复杂多变、日益严峻的风险挑战,组织韧性是城市社区提升风险防治能力与实现可持续发展的重要方面。如何整合城市社区组织关系、制度规范、社会资源和集群文化以有效提升组织韧性,在应对各种风险挑战和冲击时快速适应、恢复以至在新的基础上实现跃升,成为我国城市高质量发展和社会治理现代化的重要命题。基于组织韧性视角,应以城市社区风险的有效防范与治理为出发点,从组织架构、组织制度、组织技术和组织文化等多元维度系统地探索组织韧性赋能城市社区风险治理的具体路径,并通过采取具有针对性的措施提升城市社区自组织结构、过程、能力和治理模式方面的韧性,从而夯实城市应急治理的制度根基。

新发展阶段中国经济发展的韧性:评价、影响因素及其维护策略

经济发展韧性是长期发展视角下经济体适应变革、持续演进和稳定发展的素质和潜力的综合体现。基于对经济发展韧性内涵的理论阐释,从基础韧性、规模韧性、结构韧性、创新韧性和制度韧性5个方面确立经济发展韧性评价维度,测算2000—2021年的中国经济发展韧性指数及各分项维度指数,并进一步分析中国经济发展韧性的空间差异。研究结果表明,中国经济发展韧性在时间维度上呈现出稳步提升的演化趋势,在空间维度上不同地区间和各个地区内的经济发展韧性差异呈现出先扩大后缩小的基本特征。结合中国经济发展韧性的影响因素和演化趋势,提出新发展阶段中国经济发展韧性的维护策略。

档案韧性治理:动因之问、理论之思和策略之析

档案治理是档案事业发展的重要方式。时代变局和治理升级要求档案治理理论创新。引入韧性治理理论并提出“档案韧性治理”概念,论述其在发展韧性、参与韧性、结构韧性和能力韧性四重维度的特征。基于档案韧性治理,从提升档案治理韧性方面提出档案治理现代化的新路径:形成动态机制,稳固持续发展韧性;完善保障机制,增强社会参与韧性;强化协调机制,联通体系结构韧性;落实聚合机制,夯实治理能力韧性。

自复位支撑钢框架抗震性能评估与损伤演化分析

为研究自复位耗能(SCED)支撑失效前后支撑钢框架结构的抗震韧性及损伤演化规律,设计了一单榀三层自复位支撑钢框架(SCBSF)并对其进行精细化有限元模拟,探究了支撑第二刚度和摩擦力在考虑支撑失效时对结构宏观响应和关键构件损伤状态的影响规律。结果表明,在地震作用下,SCED支撑作为SCBSF第一道抗震防线,激活工作后为结构提供了稳定的耗能与卓越的复位能力,相比屈曲约束支撑(BRB)框架残余变形角最大减小了84.9%,显著降低结构震后修复成本;支撑达到最大行程破坏失效后,结构层间变形加剧,框架梁和柱塑性耗能占比增加了92.33%,主体结构损伤值增加了48.45%,结构的抗震性能与韧性水平明显降低。参数分析结果表明,提升支撑的第二刚度和摩擦力能有效降低结构响应,但具有较大第二刚度和摩擦力的支撑框架仍抵抗不了强震作用时,可能导致更多的支撑失效破坏,结构损伤加剧。因此,设计SCED支撑时,需要适当提高支撑第二刚度和摩擦力,建议第二刚度取值为第一刚度的7/50~4/25,支撑摩擦力与预压力比值取为1~1.2;提升支撑第二刚度相比提升摩擦力对结构损伤值控制效果更好,随着地震动强度增大,摩擦力与第二刚度对结构抗震性能的影响逐渐减小。

生态水文系统支撑城市韧性安全建设的若干思考

近40年城市生态水文学应用研究的重要进展,特别是区域水循环要素的优化调控,有效地支撑了韧性安全城市建设。在城市生态水文系统理念的指导下,北美、欧洲和中国相继出现了低影响开发、水框架指令、海绵城市与气候适应型城市建设。全球变化和人为活动相互作用产生了复杂的城市生态水文过程,自然水循环模式已转变为“自然-社会”相互作用的二元水循环模式。面对全球变化,韧性安全城市的建设更加关注对气候变化的减缓和适应,特别是对极端天气气候事件的适应能力。我国长期持续大规模的城市开发建设,强烈影响和改变着区域水循环关键要素,城市地下空间开发利用和地面沉降面临着极端天气气候情境下的灾害风险。因此,地学基础条件及其韧性构成了城市韧性安全底座的基础。基于二元水循环关键要素调控设计的减缓和适应对策,在新一轮气候适应型城市建设中发挥了重要作用。“气候变化—区域二元水循环—水平衡调控—灾害风险”“遥感大数据—台站网小数据—传递函数—云孪生”,可作为一种地球大数据支撑韧性城市建设与可持续发展的技术框架和方法组合。上海作为长江流域的龙头和海陆交互敏感区域,城市韧性安全还面临着海平面上升的考验。在气候变化情景下区域二元水循环关键要素调控,可作为地学服务上海地下空间安全及城市韧性安全的一个策略。

考虑韧性的两阶段应急物资供应链决策优化

为保障应急物资供应能力、降低供应链中断风险,使应急物资供应链在遭受自然灾害冲击时快速恢复到正常状态,将韧性概念引入应急物资供应链的决策中,在政企联合的基础上,采用多源采购和产能储备的组合韧性策略提升应急物资供应链的韧性。以供应链的总需求满足率最大化和总成本最小化为目标,构建一个均衡供应链韧性与成本的两阶段双目标混合整数优化模型,解决灾前政府的实物储备及灾后不同情境下应急物资的生产与分配问题;以洪涝灾害为背景,通过算例分析、对比分析和灵敏度分析验证了模型的有效性及可行性。结果表明:均衡韧性与成本的应急物资供应链模型的总需求满足率可达95.75%,比传统供应链模型提升15.30百分点,且总成本仅增加0.52%,比同等条件下仅以成本为导向的供应链的总需求满足率提升15.65百分点,且总成本仅增加3.70%;多源采购策略和产能储备策略二者同时采用比分别单独采用,能更大程度地保证应急物资供应链在平稳运行的基础上,既高效应对自然灾害又花费较低的成本。

中国粮食体系韧性:水平测度及动态演进

分析粮食体系韧性理论内涵的基础上,从风险抵抗能力、适应调整能力和创新转型能力三个维度构建粮食体系韧性综合评价指标体系,基于2011—2021年中国31个省份数据,采用熵值法、Moran’s I指数、Kernel核密度、空间Markov链、Dagum基尼系数等方法对中国粮食体系韧性进行测度与评价。研究发现:中国粮食体系韧性提升明显,但整体水平较低,粮食主销区粮食体系韧性较高;中国粮食体系韧性分维度指数值从高到低依次是风险抵抗能力、创新转型能力和适应调整能力。中国粮食体系韧性具有显著的空间正相关性,多数省份位于高—高集聚区和低—低集聚区,空间集聚程度逐渐降低。中国粮食体系韧性水平在波动中上升,具有一定的梯度效应,但极化效应较弱;相邻地区空间滞后水平的提升能够增加本地区向上转移的概率。中国粮食体系韧性的区域差异明显但存在一定的收敛趋势,组间差异及超变密度是粮食体系韧性发展不平衡不充分的主要原因。

数字经济发展提升了出口贸易韧性吗?——基于跨国面板数据的经验研究

世界百年之未有的大变局下,全球经济发展不确定性显著增加了国际贸易风险,提升出口贸易韧性是对冲贸易风险冲击的关键。数字经济的快速发展为重塑出口贸易韧性提供了良好机遇。利用2008—2018年47个主要国家面板数据,度量其数字经济发展和出口贸易韧性水平,并基于工具变量法识别两者的因果效应。研究发现,数字经济发展提升了国家出口贸易韧性,且该影响存在异质性。就机制而言,创新能力与生产能力是数字经济影响出口贸易韧性的两个渠道,成本效应会削弱数字经济对出口贸易韧性的正向影响,生产结构多样化则会强化数字经济对出口贸易韧性的积极作用。研究为丰富数字经济发展的对外贸易效应提供经验证据,也为探寻出口贸易韧性的提升路径给予政策参考。

肠造口患儿家庭复原力的调查研究

目的探讨肠造口患儿家庭复原力现状,并分析其影响因素。方法采用方便抽样法,选取2021年10月至2023年10月于解放军总医院第七医学中心儿科医学部住院的132例肠造口患儿及其照顾者为研究对象。采用一般资料及疾病资料调查问卷、家庭复原力问卷(Family Resilience Questionnaire,FRQ)、肠造口患儿家庭主要照顾者照护能力测评量表、简易应对方式问卷(Simple Coping Style Questionnaire,SCSQ)对其进行调查。统计学方法采用独立样本t检验、单因素方差分析、Pearson相关性分析和多元线性回归分析。结果132例肠造口患儿FRQ总分为(75.34±15.47)分。单因素分析结果显示,患儿性别、手术次数、病程、营养状态、医疗费用支付方式的FRQ得分比较,差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。肠造口患儿家庭主要照顾者照护能力测评量表总分为(126.38±29.09)分,应对倾向均分为(16.54±8.68)分。Pearson相关性分析结果显示,肠造口患儿家庭复原力与主要照顾者照护能力测评量表、应对倾向得分均呈正相关(r值分别为0.561、0.438,P值均<0.01)。多元线性回归分析结果显示,手术次数、病程、营养状态、主要照顾者照护能力和应对倾向是肠造口患儿家庭复原力的主要影响因素(P值均<0.05)。结论肠造口患儿家庭复原力处于中等水平,建议医护人员针对家庭复原力影响因素积极引导家长提升家庭复原力水平,促进肠造口患儿疾病康复。

长江经济带城市韧性水平与旅游环境承载力交互胁迫及协同响应

以长江经济带为研究对象,构建城市韧性与旅游环境承载力综合评价指标体系并测度其发展水平,运用双指数函数验证其交互胁迫效应,借助哈肯模型测度协同发展态势,利用VAR模型判断互动响应关系,结果表明:①区域整体两大系统水平均有所提升,东部处于“翘楚”地位,中、西部实现对东部的“追赶”,但存在低水平趋同与城市韧性不足的困境。②交互胁迫关系证实,长江经济带城市韧性水平与旅游环境承载力具有相互胁迫约束效应且存在时空异质性,城市韧性水平越高的地区,旅游环境承载力压力越大。③区域协同水平在时间维度呈现由失调向协同转化的利好态势,空间分异特征呈现由“东部领衔”到“西部崛起”再到“中部追赶”的动态演化过程,稳态均衡收敛趋势增强。④区域脉冲响应差异显著,江苏、上海分别对城市韧性与旅游环境承载力冲击的起伏波动较大;中部两大系统的脉冲响应均呈现“先波动后平稳”特征;西部两大系统的脉冲响应表现出较为突出的起伏。

老年人独处能力与抑郁症状:心理韧性的中介和居住方式的调节作用

目的:考察老年人独处能力与抑郁症状的关系及其内在机制。方法:采用独处能力量表(CBAS)、心理韧性量表简版(CD-RISC-10)、流调中心抑郁自评量表(CES-D10),对1057名55岁及以上的老年人进行测查。结果:(1)老年人独处能力显著负向预测抑郁症状(β=-0.17,P<0.001);(2)心理韧性在独处能力与抑郁症状之间起部分中介作用,中介效应值为-0.06,中介效应占比为33.53%;(3)不同的居住方式调节了中介模型的前半段路径(β独居=0.17,P<0.05)和直接路径(β子女=-0.17,P<0.05;β子&配=-0.16,P<0.05)。结论:无论与谁居住,独处能力均可以通过增强其心理韧性来降低晚年抑郁风险;对于独居空巢老年人,独处能力对其心理韧性的促进作用更显著,一定程度上补偿了亲密关系缺失的不利影响;而对于与子女居住、与子女和配偶共同居住的老年人,高独处能力有助于直接缓解其抑郁症状。

Isolating higher yielding and more stable rice genotypes in stress environments: fine-tuning a selection method using production and resilience score indices

In Asia, the rice crop sustains millions of people. However, growing demand for this crop needs to be met while simultaneously reducing its water consumption to cope with the effects of climate change. Lowland cropping systems are the most common and productive but have particularly high water requirements. High-yielding rice genotypes adapted to drier environments(such as rainfed or aerobic rice ecosystems) are needed to increase the water use efficiency of cropping. Identifying these genotypes requires fast and more accurate selection methods. It is hypothesized that applying a new quantitative selection method(the score index selection method), can usefully compare rice yield responses over different years and stress intensities to select genotypes more rapidly and efficiently. Applying the score index to previously published rice yield data for 39 genotypes grown in no-stress and two stress environments, identified three genotypes(ARB 8, IR55419-04 and ARB 7) with higher and stable yield under moderate to severe stress conditions. These genotypes are postulated to be better adapted to stress environment such as upland and aerobic environments. Importantly, the score index selection method offers improved precision than the conventional breeding selection method in identifying genotypes that are well-suited to a range of stress levels within the target environment.

基于PPRR理论的自然灾害冲击下基层社区应急治理能力研究

基层社区作为社会治理的终端,其应急治理韧性化发挥着减缓灾害冲击的“软垫效应”。随着城市化规模扩大、进程加快和灾害场景演化,城市社区面临的系统性风险增加,应急治理暴露出一些短板和弱项,全国各大城市纷纷采取措施强化基层的应急能力建设。本文依据PPRR理论构建自然灾害冲击下基层社区全流程的应急治理能力评价体系,以成都市为例综合分析基层社区应急治理中存在的问题,从社区处置救援能力、应急基础资源保障、监测预警排查能力和灾后总结改善四个方面,提出促进基层社区防灾减灾实现高效能应急治理的对策建议。