In this paper, the characteristics of thunderstorms in Zibo City were ana- lyzed. The thunderstorms could be divided into cold-front thunderstorm, upper trough （shear line） type thunderstorm and cold-vortex thunders...In this paper, the characteristics of thunderstorms in Zibo City were ana- lyzed. The thunderstorms could be divided into cold-front thunderstorm, upper trough （shear line） type thunderstorm and cold-vortex thunderstorm. We also screened out the atmosphere parameters that were highly correlated to the occurrence of thunder/ lightning. They were treated as the predictors. Each possible influencing factor was analyzed on the lightning day correspondingly. Their threshold values were also de- termined. Among them, the parameter that had the highest neutralizing capacity was treated as negative index. For different type of thunderstorm weather, the negative index was different. The application of negative indexes was also discussed. We hope to provide a valuable basis for the accurate forecasting of thunder/lightning.展开更多
Mineralization distributions are very heterogeneous in nature. As large orsuperlarge mineral deposits are quite rare whether in time or in space, it is difficult to detectall the largest mineral deposits in a region i...Mineralization distributions are very heterogeneous in nature. As large orsuperlarge mineral deposits are quite rare whether in time or in space, it is difficult to detectall the largest mineral deposits in a region in a limited period of time owing to the restriction oftechnology and exploration degrees-this is called 'not all discovered'. However, all discoveredlarge, especially superlarge, mineral deposits generally have a complete census in the geologicalliteratures. On the other hand, not all discovered small mineral deposits are recorded in thegeological literatures because for economic reasons people have not much interest in them-this iscalled 'not all recorded'. This practice often results in the observation truncations, that is, thedata points near the two ends in an observable population, which is obtained by fitting a power lawsize-frequency distribution to discovered mineral deposits in a given region, show concave-downdeparture from the correlation line fitted. The authors suggest that the size and number ofundiscovered deposits may be forecast by fitting a fractal size distribution to discovered mineraldeposit sizes between the upper and lower truncation observations and then extrapolating thescale-independent area to deposit sizes larger than the upper truncation limit. Based on thestatistical results obtained by the fractal size-frequency distributions of 394 discovered golddeposits with sizes greater than 2 t Au in China and 83 known gold deposits with sizes over 0.3 t Auin the Jiaodong area of China, the authors forecast according to the present commercial standardsfor gold ores that the total resources of undiscovered gold deposits ranging in tonnage from 50 to2000 t Au are more than 4500 tin China, and that in the Jiaodong area of China the total resourcesof potential gold deposits with sizes in the range of 30 to 650 t Au are about 700 t.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main inf...[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.展开更多
A potential energy framework for assessment of grid vulnerability was presented.In the framework,the branch potential energy function model was constructed.Two indexes,current vulnerability and forecasting vulnerabili...A potential energy framework for assessment of grid vulnerability was presented.In the framework,the branch potential energy function model was constructed.Two indexes,current vulnerability and forecasting vulnerability,were calculated.The current vulnerability was used to identify the current vulnerable area through calculating the distance between the current transmitted power and initial transmitted power;and the forecast vulnerability under variation of power injection was used to predict the vulnerable area of next step and verify the current vulnerable area.Numerical simulation was performed under variant operating conditions with IEEE-30 bus system,which shows that almost area of 90% overlaps between current vulnerable area and forecasting vulnerable area,the overlapped area is termed as inherent vulnerable area of grid.When considering N-1 contingency,the assessment results of this method proposed agree with those of optimal power flow.When considering N-2 contingency,optimal power flow fails to obtain correct results,while the method based on energy framework gives reliable results.展开更多
Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with ...Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.展开更多
Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions wa...Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.展开更多
This study explores the potential of assimilating data from multiple instruments onboard high-altitude,longendurance unmanned aircraft to improve hurricane analyses and forecasts.A recent study found a signifi cant po...This study explores the potential of assimilating data from multiple instruments onboard high-altitude,longendurance unmanned aircraft to improve hurricane analyses and forecasts.A recent study found a signifi cant positive impact on analyses and forecasts of Hurricane Karl when an ensemble Kalman fi lter was used to assimilate data from the High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profi ler(HIWRAP),a new Doppler radar onboard the NASA Global Hawk(GH)unmanned airborne system.The GH can also carry other useful instruments,including dropsondes and the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer(HIRAD),which is a new radiometer that estimates large swaths of wind speeds and rainfall at the ocean surface.The primary fi nding is that simultaneously assimilating data from HIWRAP and the other GH-compatible instruments results in further analysis and forecast improvement for Karl.The greatest improvement comes when HIWRAP,HIRAD,and dropsonde data are simultaneously assimilated.展开更多
文摘In this paper, the characteristics of thunderstorms in Zibo City were ana- lyzed. The thunderstorms could be divided into cold-front thunderstorm, upper trough （shear line） type thunderstorm and cold-vortex thunderstorm. We also screened out the atmosphere parameters that were highly correlated to the occurrence of thunder/ lightning. They were treated as the predictors. Each possible influencing factor was analyzed on the lightning day correspondingly. Their threshold values were also de- termined. Among them, the parameter that had the highest neutralizing capacity was treated as negative index. For different type of thunderstorm weather, the negative index was different. The application of negative indexes was also discussed. We hope to provide a valuable basis for the accurate forecasting of thunder/lightning.
文摘Mineralization distributions are very heterogeneous in nature. As large orsuperlarge mineral deposits are quite rare whether in time or in space, it is difficult to detectall the largest mineral deposits in a region in a limited period of time owing to the restriction oftechnology and exploration degrees-this is called 'not all discovered'. However, all discoveredlarge, especially superlarge, mineral deposits generally have a complete census in the geologicalliteratures. On the other hand, not all discovered small mineral deposits are recorded in thegeological literatures because for economic reasons people have not much interest in them-this iscalled 'not all recorded'. This practice often results in the observation truncations, that is, thedata points near the two ends in an observable population, which is obtained by fitting a power lawsize-frequency distribution to discovered mineral deposits in a given region, show concave-downdeparture from the correlation line fitted. The authors suggest that the size and number ofundiscovered deposits may be forecast by fitting a fractal size distribution to discovered mineraldeposit sizes between the upper and lower truncation observations and then extrapolating thescale-independent area to deposit sizes larger than the upper truncation limit. Based on thestatistical results obtained by the fractal size-frequency distributions of 394 discovered golddeposits with sizes greater than 2 t Au in China and 83 known gold deposits with sizes over 0.3 t Auin the Jiaodong area of China, the authors forecast according to the present commercial standardsfor gold ores that the total resources of undiscovered gold deposits ranging in tonnage from 50 to2000 t Au are more than 4500 tin China, and that in the Jiaodong area of China the total resourcesof potential gold deposits with sizes in the range of 30 to 650 t Au are about 700 t.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the first spring soaking rain weather and its precipitation enhancement potential forecast in Jinzhou area in 2010. [Method] From the weather situation characteristics, main influence system, forecast service, artificial precipitation enhancement operation and so on, the first spring soaking rain weather process in Jinzhou area in 2010 was summarized comprehensively. [Result] The weather situation characteristics of soaking rain were that the high-altitude cold air was weak, and the low-level warm wet airflow was obvious. The main influence systems were the high-altitude trough, the high-altitude shear line and the ground Mongolian cyclone. The ground inverted trough system advanced northward and got through with the same phase of Mongolian cyclone, which provided the certain energy and water vapor for the precipitation in Jinzhou area. It was one of key reasons for generating the soaking rain. The numerical forecast product played the certain guidance role in the forecast service work. The situation field forecast was accurate, but the precipitation forecast deviation was big. Therefore, the forecast service couldn’t depend on the numerical forecast product simply and totally, and should combine with the actual monitoring data to analyze and apply comprehensively. [Conclusion] The research played the safeguarding role in carrying out the large-scale artificial precipitation enhancement operation successfully in the whole area of Jinzhou.
基金Project(51007006) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20090185120023) supported by the Ph.D Programs Foundation for New Teacher of Ministry of Education of China
文摘A potential energy framework for assessment of grid vulnerability was presented.In the framework,the branch potential energy function model was constructed.Two indexes,current vulnerability and forecasting vulnerability,were calculated.The current vulnerability was used to identify the current vulnerable area through calculating the distance between the current transmitted power and initial transmitted power;and the forecast vulnerability under variation of power injection was used to predict the vulnerable area of next step and verify the current vulnerable area.Numerical simulation was performed under variant operating conditions with IEEE-30 bus system,which shows that almost area of 90% overlaps between current vulnerable area and forecasting vulnerable area,the overlapped area is termed as inherent vulnerable area of grid.When considering N-1 contingency,the assessment results of this method proposed agree with those of optimal power flow.When considering N-2 contingency,optimal power flow fails to obtain correct results,while the method based on energy framework gives reliable results.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275099,41275012,41205073)
文摘Based on the conventional ground observational data,a numerical simulation and moist potential vorticity( MPV) analysis has been carried on heavy rainfall event over Jiangxi province from 19 June to 20 June 2010,with a meso-scale rainstorm model. The results show that this rare rainstorm is a typical heavy rainfall over Meiyu front. The cold air flow behind North China vortex joined up the southwestern flow located in the northwest part of the strong and stable subtropical high,thus the cold air and warm air converged and maintained over the northern part of Hunan and Jiangxi province. The simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar to the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location,intensity and center of heavy rainfall. By moist potential vorticity analysis,it is found that the distribution characteristic of MPV which heavy rainfall happens ahead has an obvious indication for precipitation forecast. The vertical overlapping of the positive and negative MPV1 areas is favorable to the generation and development of rainstorm. This zone is also the conjoint area of convective instability and baroclinic instability.
基金Supported by Agricultural Poor-helping Monopoly of Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science (40641002)
文摘Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.
基金Funding for this work came the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Investigation under NASA’s Earth Venture Programfrom the NASA New Investigator Program
文摘This study explores the potential of assimilating data from multiple instruments onboard high-altitude,longendurance unmanned aircraft to improve hurricane analyses and forecasts.A recent study found a signifi cant positive impact on analyses and forecasts of Hurricane Karl when an ensemble Kalman fi lter was used to assimilate data from the High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profi ler(HIWRAP),a new Doppler radar onboard the NASA Global Hawk(GH)unmanned airborne system.The GH can also carry other useful instruments,including dropsondes and the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer(HIRAD),which is a new radiometer that estimates large swaths of wind speeds and rainfall at the ocean surface.The primary fi nding is that simultaneously assimilating data from HIWRAP and the other GH-compatible instruments results in further analysis and forecast improvement for Karl.The greatest improvement comes when HIWRAP,HIRAD,and dropsonde data are simultaneously assimilated.
