A comprehensive evaluation method of electric power prediction models using multiple accuracy indicators is proposed.To obtain the preferred models,this paper selects a number of accuracy indicators that can reflect t...A comprehensive evaluation method of electric power prediction models using multiple accuracy indicators is proposed.To obtain the preferred models,this paper selects a number of accuracy indicators that can reflect the accuracy of single-point prediction and the correlation of predicted data,and carries out a comprehensive evaluation.First,according to Dempster-Shafer(D-S)evidence theory,a new accuracy indicator based on the relative error(RE)is proposed to solve the problem that RE is inconsistent with other indicators in the quantity of evaluation values and cannot be adopted at the same time.Next,a new dimensionless method is proposed,which combines the efficiency coefficient method with the extreme value method to unify the accuracy indicator into a dimensionless positive indicator,to avoid the conflict between pieces of evidence caused by the minimum value of zero.On this basis,the evidence fusion is used to obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of each model.Then,the principle and the process of consistency checking of the proposed method using the entropy method and the linear combination formula are described.Finally,the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed method are validated by an illustrative instance.展开更多
First, a three-tier coordinated scheduling system consisting of a distribution network dispatch layer, a microgrid centralized control layer, and local control layer in the energy internet is proposed. The multi-time ...First, a three-tier coordinated scheduling system consisting of a distribution network dispatch layer, a microgrid centralized control layer, and local control layer in the energy internet is proposed. The multi-time scale optimal scheduling of the microgrid based on Model Predictive Control（MPC） is then studied, and the optimized genetic algorithm and the microgrid multi-time rolling optimization strategy are used to optimize the datahead scheduling phase and the intra-day optimization phase. Next, based on the three-tier coordinated scheduling architecture, the operation loss model of the distribution network is solved using the improved branch current forward-generation method and the genetic algorithm. The optimal scheduling of the distribution network layer is then completed. Finally, the simulation examples are used to compare and verify the validity of the method.展开更多
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFB0901405)Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Planning Project of China(No.2020A0505100004,No.2018A050506069)Guangdong Provincial Special Fund Project for Marine Economic Development of China(No.GDNRC[2020]020)。
文摘A comprehensive evaluation method of electric power prediction models using multiple accuracy indicators is proposed.To obtain the preferred models,this paper selects a number of accuracy indicators that can reflect the accuracy of single-point prediction and the correlation of predicted data,and carries out a comprehensive evaluation.First,according to Dempster-Shafer(D-S)evidence theory,a new accuracy indicator based on the relative error(RE)is proposed to solve the problem that RE is inconsistent with other indicators in the quantity of evaluation values and cannot be adopted at the same time.Next,a new dimensionless method is proposed,which combines the efficiency coefficient method with the extreme value method to unify the accuracy indicator into a dimensionless positive indicator,to avoid the conflict between pieces of evidence caused by the minimum value of zero.On this basis,the evidence fusion is used to obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of each model.Then,the principle and the process of consistency checking of the proposed method using the entropy method and the linear combination formula are described.Finally,the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed method are validated by an illustrative instance.
基金supported by Beijing Municipal Science Technology commission research(No.Z171100000317003)
文摘First, a three-tier coordinated scheduling system consisting of a distribution network dispatch layer, a microgrid centralized control layer, and local control layer in the energy internet is proposed. The multi-time scale optimal scheduling of the microgrid based on Model Predictive Control（MPC） is then studied, and the optimized genetic algorithm and the microgrid multi-time rolling optimization strategy are used to optimize the datahead scheduling phase and the intra-day optimization phase. Next, based on the three-tier coordinated scheduling architecture, the operation loss model of the distribution network is solved using the improved branch current forward-generation method and the genetic algorithm. The optimal scheduling of the distribution network layer is then completed. Finally, the simulation examples are used to compare and verify the validity of the method.
