Financial crisis prediction(FCP)received significant attention in the financial sector for decision-making.Proper forecasting of the number of firms possible to fail is important to determine the growth index and stre...Financial crisis prediction(FCP)received significant attention in the financial sector for decision-making.Proper forecasting of the number of firms possible to fail is important to determine the growth index and strength of a nation’s economy.Conventionally,numerous approaches have been developed in the design of accurate FCP processes.At the same time,classifier efficacy and predictive accuracy are inadequate for real-time applications.In addition,several established techniques carry out well to any of the specific datasets but are not adjustable to distinct datasets.Thus,there is a necessity for developing an effectual prediction technique for optimum classifier performance and adjustable to various datasets.This paper presents a novel multi-vs.optimization(MVO)based feature selection(FS)with an optimal variational auto encoder(OVAE)model for FCP.The proposed multi-vs.optimization based feature selection with optimal variational auto encoder(MVOFS-OVAE)model mainly aims to accomplish forecasting the financial crisis.For achieving this,the proposed MVOFS-OVAE model primarily pre-processes the financial data using min-max normalization.In addition,the MVOFS-OVAE model designs a feature subset selection process using the MVOFS approach.Followed by,the variational auto encoder(VAE)model is applied for the categorization of financial data into financial crisis or non-financial crisis.Finally,the differential evolution(DE)algorithm is utilized for the parameter tuning of the VAE model.A series of simulations on the benchmark dataset reported the betterment of the MVOFS-OVAE approach over the recent state of art approaches.展开更多
This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market’s major stock index and eight sectoral indices,including the industrial,financial,service,information technology,basic metals,tourism...This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market’s major stock index and eight sectoral indices,including the industrial,financial,service,information technology,basic metals,tourism,real estate investment,and chemical petrol plastic,during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis(GFC)within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis.This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors’multifractality and short-and long-term dependence.The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persis-tence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC.Second,the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak.Lastly,the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries.Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis,according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time,and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.展开更多
Topological methods are rapidly developing and are becoming more used in physics, biology and chemistry. One area of topology has showed its immense potential in explaining potential financial contagion and financial ...Topological methods are rapidly developing and are becoming more used in physics, biology and chemistry. One area of topology has showed its immense potential in explaining potential financial contagion and financial crisis in financial markets. The aforementioned method is knot theory. The movement of stock price has been marked and braids and knots have been noted. By analysing the knots and braids using Jones polynomial, it is tried to find if there exists an untrivial knot equal to unknot? After thorough analysis, possible financial contagion and financial crisis prediction are analysed by using instruments of knot theory pertaining in that sense to Jones, Laurent and Alexander polynomial. It is proved that it is possible to predict financial disruptions by observing possible knots in the graphs and finding appropriate polynomials. In order to analyse knot formation, the following approach is used: “Knot formation in three-dimensional space is considered and the equations about knot forming and its disentangling are considered”. After having defined the equations in three-dimensional space, the definition of Brownian bridge concerning formation of knots in three-dimensional space is defined. Using analogy method, the notion of Brownian bridge is translated into 2-dimensional space and the foundations for the application of knot theory in 2-dimensional space have been set up. At the same time, the aforementioned approach is innovative and it could be used in accordance with stochastic analysis and quantum finance.展开更多
Recently,Financial Technology(FinTech)has received more attention among financial sectors and researchers to derive effective solutions for any financial institution or firm.Financial crisis prediction(FCP)is an essen...Recently,Financial Technology(FinTech)has received more attention among financial sectors and researchers to derive effective solutions for any financial institution or firm.Financial crisis prediction(FCP)is an essential topic in business sector that finds it useful to identify the financial condition of a financial institution.At the same time,the development of the internet of things(IoT)has altered the mode of human interaction with the physical world.The IoT can be combined with the FCP model to examine the financial data from the users and perform decision making process.This paper presents a novel multi-objective squirrel search optimization algorithm with stacked autoencoder(MOSSA-SAE)model for FCP in IoT environment.The MOSSA-SAE model encompasses different subprocesses namely preprocessing,class imbalance handling,parameter tuning,and classification.Primarily,the MOSSA-SAE model allows the IoT devices such as smartphones,laptops,etc.,to collect the financial details of the users which are then transmitted to the cloud for further analysis.In addition,SMOTE technique is employed to handle class imbalance problems.The goal of MOSSA in SMOTE is to determine the oversampling rate and area of nearest neighbors of SMOTE.Besides,SAE model is utilized as a classification technique to determine the class label of the financial data.At the same time,the MOSSA is applied to appropriately select the‘weights’and‘bias’values of the SAE.An extensive experimental validation process is performed on the benchmark financial dataset and the results are examined under distinct aspects.The experimental values ensured the superior performance of the MOSSA-SAE model on the applied dataset.展开更多
This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, d...This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the depth of market integration changed significantly between the pre-crisis period and the crisis and post-crisis period. Graphical models of both return and volatility spillovers are presented for each period. We conclude that graphical models are a useful tool in the analysis of multivariate time series where tracing the flow of causality is important.展开更多
The subprime mortgage crunch that had simmered throughout 2007 erupted into a global financial crisis in mid-September 2008. To deal with the globally raging crisis, governments worldwide unveiled massive bailout plan...The subprime mortgage crunch that had simmered throughout 2007 erupted into a global financial crisis in mid-September 2008. To deal with the globally raging crisis, governments worldwide unveiled massive bailout plans. Up till now governments have been ratcheting up the size of bailouts and the extent of direct intervention as the financial crisis is spreading and the economic recession is deepening. Meanwhile, governments worldwide are also making tough policy choices among bailout and economic stimulus options. Government decisions made in this unprecedented global financial crisis are, in our opinion, replete with contradictions and mistakes. It is fully understandable that a government may make imperfect decisions when it takes on an unprecedented challenge without adequate preparation. Severely underestimating the nature and magnitude of the crisis and lacking a global macro-perspective and an overall framework and guideline when designing bailout packages, have, however, affected the impact of bailouts and created pitfalls that may come back to haunt the economies in the future.展开更多
In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis ignited the international financial crisis which caused a big shock, leading to the great recession and triggering a series of economic, social, and political crises that had a...In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis ignited the international financial crisis which caused a big shock, leading to the great recession and triggering a series of economic, social, and political crises that had a profound impact on the world economy and international politics. Under the pressure of the big crisis, the countries concerned have strengthened financial supervision, and the international community is committed to global governance. However, the corresponding measures are just stirring the hot soup to stop it from boiling. As the main culprit of the financial monopoly is capital, its strength and power have been strengthened instead of being weakened. Greed and speculation have been continuously strengthened instead of being contained. In this way, it is very likely that the measures to solve the old crisis will be the very cause of a new crisis.展开更多
The mortgage loan has evolved from a local lending instrument into a major global security and its role is unparallel to other financial instruments in the process of financial globalization.This paper explains how te...The mortgage loan has evolved from a local lending instrument into a major global security and its role is unparallel to other financial instruments in the process of financial globalization.This paper explains how technology and financial innovation transformed the mortgage loan from a local security into a premier global security traded worldwide.It examines the fundamental flaws of this process and why it does not work in regards to mortgage lending and the re-securitization products that were created through financial innovation.The findings show that regulation was unable to keep pace with financial innovation,which created an environment where actors in the financial service sector were able to behave geographically irresponsibly by using information asymmetries to their advantage by participating in moral hazard activities and engaging in other immoral and unethical business practices that were centered around localized geography,which ultimately contributed to the global financial crisis.It also examines the roll of financial innovation in regard to the Lehman Brothers Mini-Bond in Hong and its role as a driving force behind China's newly emerging shadow banking sector.It concludes with a policy recommendation and its implication for China's continued economic development.展开更多
The current financial crisis is an inevitable result of the financial system accommodating a new banking business model, which endeavors to benefit, with increased innovation in financial products, from the incentives...The current financial crisis is an inevitable result of the financial system accommodating a new banking business model, which endeavors to benefit, with increased innovation in financial products, from the incentives and distortions created by the global macro liquidity policies. The failure of regulatory and supervising institutions to keep up with those innovations has undoubtedly compounded the magnitude of the debt and credit crisis.展开更多
Financial crisis started from America and soon spread all over the world.How did this happen? What government has done to rescue the economy and what should we do to help? Is financial crisis inevitable? These questio...Financial crisis started from America and soon spread all over the world.How did this happen? What government has done to rescue the economy and what should we do to help? Is financial crisis inevitable? These questions have bothered me for a long time.However,if we use a macroeconomist eye to view the world,all the questions seemed clear and crystal.展开更多
Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international fi nancial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and a...Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international fi nancial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as "world factory" determines that fi nancial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects: heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis, Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from "world factory" into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.展开更多
The Asian financial crisis has increasingly shown its in-fluence on the utilization of foreign direct investment inShanghai. To further explain this, the main factors thatplay important roles in the decision of foreig...The Asian financial crisis has increasingly shown its in-fluence on the utilization of foreign direct investment inShanghai. To further explain this, the main factors thatplay important roles in the decision of foreign direct in-vestment in Shanghai are analyzed. The extent of influ-ence is measured according to the changes of those decis-ive factors. A simple linear regression model is intro-duced to help the analysis.展开更多
In 2018, US President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly criticized the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, breaking the long-established precedent for presidents to refrain from intervening i...In 2018, US President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly criticized the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, breaking the long-established precedent for presidents to refrain from intervening in monetary policy and putting the independence of the Federal Reserve into question. However, this is only the latest development of a longer process: since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been gradually losing its independence, in a quiet and perhaps permanent way. There are several reasons for this trend: the Federal Reserve’s performance during the financial crisis undermined its credibility, the consolidation of political factors arranged against its independence, and the consequences of the financial crisis weakened the economic foundation for its independence. Trump’s rise to power has only strengthened these factors, bringing an additional loss of independence, which will have a profound impact on the economy, society, and politics.展开更多
To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting mo...To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.展开更多
The root causes of subprime crisis are analyzed based on the introduction of the definition and features of subprime mortgage loans:firstly,a loose financial supervision and regulation environment leads to weak risk a...The root causes of subprime crisis are analyzed based on the introduction of the definition and features of subprime mortgage loans:firstly,a loose financial supervision and regulation environment leads to weak risk awareness;secondly,the highly complex financial products enlarge the risk. Taking into account that our rural finance is characterized by vast territory,scattered distribution of population,small economic scale and insufficient mortgage,it is pointed out that rural finance has different development rules and patterns from urban finance. On the basis of introducing that there is an insufficient amount of formal finance in our rural finance and our informal finance is under a long-term suppression,the great significance of financial innovation to rural finance is discussed:firstly,it effectively increases financial supply;secondly,it gradually regulates and develops the informal finance. The enlightenment of subprime crisis to our rural financial innovation is explored:firstly,financial innovation is the driving force of rural financial development;secondly,to strengthen risk awareness is a prerequisite for financial innovation;thirdly,a flexible and effective supervision and regulation system is an effective approach to preventing financial risks.展开更多
To analyze the production and marketing of China automobile in Year 2009,and also the development of China automobile and steel cord in those 11 years.The single-element regression mathematics model was set up to anal...To analyze the production and marketing of China automobile in Year 2009,and also the development of China automobile and steel cord in those 11 years.The single-element regression mathematics model was set up to analyze the steel cord demand and automobile production.It predicted that automobile production would up to 15 170 000,16 690 000 and 18 360 000 respectively from 2010 to 2012,with the confidence as of 95%,the steel cord consumption in those three years will be 1 180 000 - 1 370 000 t, 1 320 000 - 1 520 000 t and 1 470 000 - 1 680 000 t.As to the policy of China stimulation,The role of Chinese tire has converted from the export-oriented to domestic consumer smoothly,so the effect of US special protectionist tariffs is limited in China.展开更多
As financial derivatives have exploded like bombs,one ofter another,capital injections by the U.S.and European governments are becoming gradually ineffective.These rescue measures will fail to revese the banding crisi...As financial derivatives have exploded like bombs,one ofter another,capital injections by the U.S.and European governments are becoming gradually ineffective.These rescue measures will fail to revese the banding crisis,and even worse,may plunge the global economy from deflation into a cycle of inflation during recession.Ultimately,economic collapse and hyperinflation may occur simultaneously.In response to this grave possibility,China should unite first stakeholders in demanding the U.S.government strictly distinguish two kinds of debts in its rescue package:The first are bonds such as U.S.pension funds,3A grade bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae,and U.S.government bonds held by other countries,These are creditor’s rights,which should be guaranteed with top priority.The second kind are debts deriving from the speculation at financial institutions such as highly leveraged derivatives,which have reached astronomical figures.Attempts to rescue such bad debts will only lead to hyperinflation.展开更多
文摘Financial crisis prediction(FCP)received significant attention in the financial sector for decision-making.Proper forecasting of the number of firms possible to fail is important to determine the growth index and strength of a nation’s economy.Conventionally,numerous approaches have been developed in the design of accurate FCP processes.At the same time,classifier efficacy and predictive accuracy are inadequate for real-time applications.In addition,several established techniques carry out well to any of the specific datasets but are not adjustable to distinct datasets.Thus,there is a necessity for developing an effectual prediction technique for optimum classifier performance and adjustable to various datasets.This paper presents a novel multi-vs.optimization(MVO)based feature selection(FS)with an optimal variational auto encoder(OVAE)model for FCP.The proposed multi-vs.optimization based feature selection with optimal variational auto encoder(MVOFS-OVAE)model mainly aims to accomplish forecasting the financial crisis.For achieving this,the proposed MVOFS-OVAE model primarily pre-processes the financial data using min-max normalization.In addition,the MVOFS-OVAE model designs a feature subset selection process using the MVOFS approach.Followed by,the variational auto encoder(VAE)model is applied for the categorization of financial data into financial crisis or non-financial crisis.Finally,the differential evolution(DE)algorithm is utilized for the parameter tuning of the VAE model.A series of simulations on the benchmark dataset reported the betterment of the MVOFS-OVAE approach over the recent state of art approaches.
文摘This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market’s major stock index and eight sectoral indices,including the industrial,financial,service,information technology,basic metals,tourism,real estate investment,and chemical petrol plastic,during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis(GFC)within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis.This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors’multifractality and short-and long-term dependence.The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persis-tence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC.Second,the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak.Lastly,the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries.Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis,according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time,and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.
文摘Topological methods are rapidly developing and are becoming more used in physics, biology and chemistry. One area of topology has showed its immense potential in explaining potential financial contagion and financial crisis in financial markets. The aforementioned method is knot theory. The movement of stock price has been marked and braids and knots have been noted. By analysing the knots and braids using Jones polynomial, it is tried to find if there exists an untrivial knot equal to unknot? After thorough analysis, possible financial contagion and financial crisis prediction are analysed by using instruments of knot theory pertaining in that sense to Jones, Laurent and Alexander polynomial. It is proved that it is possible to predict financial disruptions by observing possible knots in the graphs and finding appropriate polynomials. In order to analyse knot formation, the following approach is used: “Knot formation in three-dimensional space is considered and the equations about knot forming and its disentangling are considered”. After having defined the equations in three-dimensional space, the definition of Brownian bridge concerning formation of knots in three-dimensional space is defined. Using analogy method, the notion of Brownian bridge is translated into 2-dimensional space and the foundations for the application of knot theory in 2-dimensional space have been set up. At the same time, the aforementioned approach is innovative and it could be used in accordance with stochastic analysis and quantum finance.
文摘Recently,Financial Technology(FinTech)has received more attention among financial sectors and researchers to derive effective solutions for any financial institution or firm.Financial crisis prediction(FCP)is an essential topic in business sector that finds it useful to identify the financial condition of a financial institution.At the same time,the development of the internet of things(IoT)has altered the mode of human interaction with the physical world.The IoT can be combined with the FCP model to examine the financial data from the users and perform decision making process.This paper presents a novel multi-objective squirrel search optimization algorithm with stacked autoencoder(MOSSA-SAE)model for FCP in IoT environment.The MOSSA-SAE model encompasses different subprocesses namely preprocessing,class imbalance handling,parameter tuning,and classification.Primarily,the MOSSA-SAE model allows the IoT devices such as smartphones,laptops,etc.,to collect the financial details of the users which are then transmitted to the cloud for further analysis.In addition,SMOTE technique is employed to handle class imbalance problems.The goal of MOSSA in SMOTE is to determine the oversampling rate and area of nearest neighbors of SMOTE.Besides,SAE model is utilized as a classification technique to determine the class label of the financial data.At the same time,the MOSSA is applied to appropriately select the‘weights’and‘bias’values of the SAE.An extensive experimental validation process is performed on the benchmark financial dataset and the results are examined under distinct aspects.The experimental values ensured the superior performance of the MOSSA-SAE model on the applied dataset.
文摘This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the depth of market integration changed significantly between the pre-crisis period and the crisis and post-crisis period. Graphical models of both return and volatility spillovers are presented for each period. We conclude that graphical models are a useful tool in the analysis of multivariate time series where tracing the flow of causality is important.
文摘The subprime mortgage crunch that had simmered throughout 2007 erupted into a global financial crisis in mid-September 2008. To deal with the globally raging crisis, governments worldwide unveiled massive bailout plans. Up till now governments have been ratcheting up the size of bailouts and the extent of direct intervention as the financial crisis is spreading and the economic recession is deepening. Meanwhile, governments worldwide are also making tough policy choices among bailout and economic stimulus options. Government decisions made in this unprecedented global financial crisis are, in our opinion, replete with contradictions and mistakes. It is fully understandable that a government may make imperfect decisions when it takes on an unprecedented challenge without adequate preparation. Severely underestimating the nature and magnitude of the crisis and lacking a global macro-perspective and an overall framework and guideline when designing bailout packages, have, however, affected the impact of bailouts and created pitfalls that may come back to haunt the economies in the future.
文摘In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis ignited the international financial crisis which caused a big shock, leading to the great recession and triggering a series of economic, social, and political crises that had a profound impact on the world economy and international politics. Under the pressure of the big crisis, the countries concerned have strengthened financial supervision, and the international community is committed to global governance. However, the corresponding measures are just stirring the hot soup to stop it from boiling. As the main culprit of the financial monopoly is capital, its strength and power have been strengthened instead of being weakened. Greed and speculation have been continuously strengthened instead of being contained. In this way, it is very likely that the measures to solve the old crisis will be the very cause of a new crisis.
基金Under the auspices of International Centre for China Development Studies,the University of Hong Kong
文摘The mortgage loan has evolved from a local lending instrument into a major global security and its role is unparallel to other financial instruments in the process of financial globalization.This paper explains how technology and financial innovation transformed the mortgage loan from a local security into a premier global security traded worldwide.It examines the fundamental flaws of this process and why it does not work in regards to mortgage lending and the re-securitization products that were created through financial innovation.The findings show that regulation was unable to keep pace with financial innovation,which created an environment where actors in the financial service sector were able to behave geographically irresponsibly by using information asymmetries to their advantage by participating in moral hazard activities and engaging in other immoral and unethical business practices that were centered around localized geography,which ultimately contributed to the global financial crisis.It also examines the roll of financial innovation in regard to the Lehman Brothers Mini-Bond in Hong and its role as a driving force behind China's newly emerging shadow banking sector.It concludes with a policy recommendation and its implication for China's continued economic development.
文摘The current financial crisis is an inevitable result of the financial system accommodating a new banking business model, which endeavors to benefit, with increased innovation in financial products, from the incentives and distortions created by the global macro liquidity policies. The failure of regulatory and supervising institutions to keep up with those innovations has undoubtedly compounded the magnitude of the debt and credit crisis.
文摘Financial crisis started from America and soon spread all over the world.How did this happen? What government has done to rescue the economy and what should we do to help? Is financial crisis inevitable? These questions have bothered me for a long time.However,if we use a macroeconomist eye to view the world,all the questions seemed clear and crystal.
文摘Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international fi nancial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as "world factory" determines that fi nancial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects: heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis, Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from "world factory" into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.
文摘The Asian financial crisis has increasingly shown its in-fluence on the utilization of foreign direct investment inShanghai. To further explain this, the main factors thatplay important roles in the decision of foreign direct in-vestment in Shanghai are analyzed. The extent of influ-ence is measured according to the changes of those decis-ive factors. A simple linear regression model is intro-duced to help the analysis.
文摘In 2018, US President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly criticized the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, breaking the long-established precedent for presidents to refrain from intervening in monetary policy and putting the independence of the Federal Reserve into question. However, this is only the latest development of a longer process: since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been gradually losing its independence, in a quiet and perhaps permanent way. There are several reasons for this trend: the Federal Reserve’s performance during the financial crisis undermined its credibility, the consolidation of political factors arranged against its independence, and the consequences of the financial crisis weakened the economic foundation for its independence. Trump’s rise to power has only strengthened these factors, bringing an additional loss of independence, which will have a profound impact on the economy, society, and politics.
文摘To establish a financial early-warning model with high accuracy of discrimination and achieve the aim of long-term prediction, principal component analysis (PCA), Fisher discriminant, together with grey forecasting models are used at the same time. 110 A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange are selected as research samples. And 10 extractive factors with 89.746% of all the original information are determined by applying PCA, which obtains the goal of dimension reduction without information loss. Based on the index system, the early-warning model is constructed according to the Fisher rules. And then the GM(1,1) is adopted to predict financial ratios in 2004, according to 40 testing samples from 2000 to 2003. Finally, two different methods, a self-validated and a forecasting-validated, are used to test the validity of the financial crisis warning model. The empirical results show that the model has better predictability and feasibility, and GM(1,1) contributes to the ability to make long-term predictions.
文摘The root causes of subprime crisis are analyzed based on the introduction of the definition and features of subprime mortgage loans:firstly,a loose financial supervision and regulation environment leads to weak risk awareness;secondly,the highly complex financial products enlarge the risk. Taking into account that our rural finance is characterized by vast territory,scattered distribution of population,small economic scale and insufficient mortgage,it is pointed out that rural finance has different development rules and patterns from urban finance. On the basis of introducing that there is an insufficient amount of formal finance in our rural finance and our informal finance is under a long-term suppression,the great significance of financial innovation to rural finance is discussed:firstly,it effectively increases financial supply;secondly,it gradually regulates and develops the informal finance. The enlightenment of subprime crisis to our rural financial innovation is explored:firstly,financial innovation is the driving force of rural financial development;secondly,to strengthen risk awareness is a prerequisite for financial innovation;thirdly,a flexible and effective supervision and regulation system is an effective approach to preventing financial risks.
文摘To analyze the production and marketing of China automobile in Year 2009,and also the development of China automobile and steel cord in those 11 years.The single-element regression mathematics model was set up to analyze the steel cord demand and automobile production.It predicted that automobile production would up to 15 170 000,16 690 000 and 18 360 000 respectively from 2010 to 2012,with the confidence as of 95%,the steel cord consumption in those three years will be 1 180 000 - 1 370 000 t, 1 320 000 - 1 520 000 t and 1 470 000 - 1 680 000 t.As to the policy of China stimulation,The role of Chinese tire has converted from the export-oriented to domestic consumer smoothly,so the effect of US special protectionist tariffs is limited in China.
文摘As financial derivatives have exploded like bombs,one ofter another,capital injections by the U.S.and European governments are becoming gradually ineffective.These rescue measures will fail to revese the banding crisis,and even worse,may plunge the global economy from deflation into a cycle of inflation during recession.Ultimately,economic collapse and hyperinflation may occur simultaneously.In response to this grave possibility,China should unite first stakeholders in demanding the U.S.government strictly distinguish two kinds of debts in its rescue package:The first are bonds such as U.S.pension funds,3A grade bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae,and U.S.government bonds held by other countries,These are creditor’s rights,which should be guaranteed with top priority.The second kind are debts deriving from the speculation at financial institutions such as highly leveraged derivatives,which have reached astronomical figures.Attempts to rescue such bad debts will only lead to hyperinflation.