Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province ar...Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.展开更多
The epicenter intensity of Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with MS6. 0 was Ⅶ degrees; no fatalities but many residential buildings and public facilities were moderately damaged during the earthquake. Traffic and water conse...The epicenter intensity of Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with MS6. 0 was Ⅶ degrees; no fatalities but many residential buildings and public facilities were moderately damaged during the earthquake. Traffic and water conservation facilities were damaged to a certain extent but after emergency repair,production and life in the disaster area were not influenced. According to a sample survey of the earthquake filed,this earthquake caused direct economic loss of approximately 678. 46 million yuan( RMB),and the reconstruction funds required will be about 1. 20349 billion yuan( RMB).展开更多
Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthqua...Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.展开更多
For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on t...For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the city. In this paper, GIS is applied to 'the information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in Shanghai City (Baoshan experiment region)'. We introduce to the structure and effect of each functional module in this information system. This information system consists of 7 functional modules:background information of seismology and geology, subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake, subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence, information query, maintenance and management of system, help, quit. The key parts of this information system are the subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake and the subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence. Also, this paper introduces to the application of technology of color infra-red aerial photograph remote sensing to this information system.展开更多
ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information syst...ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information system for emergency decisions on protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in cities .The information system mainly includes a subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake (which includes input of seismic information,distribution of earthquake intensity,evaluation of seismic fragility on all social factors and etc.) and a subsystem for the decisive information of seismic emergency(which mainly includes project of disaster relief,project of personnel evacuation,dangerous degree warning for the dangerous articlesstoring places and protection measures against them,assistant decision on fire due to earthquake,location of headquarter for providing disaster relief,and etc.). It is thought that the data investigation and collection about all kinds of buildings(including lifeline engineering)are the most important and difficult work as establishing this system.展开更多
In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from...In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.展开更多
An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic loss...An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of disaster losses are expected to provide a preliminary scientific reference for governments to carry out the targeted deployment of emergency rescue and post-disaster reconstruction.展开更多
Restoring lifeline services to an urban neighborhood impacted by a large disaster is critical to the recovery of the city as a whole.Since cities are comprised of many dependent lifeline systems,the pattern of the res...Restoring lifeline services to an urban neighborhood impacted by a large disaster is critical to the recovery of the city as a whole.Since cities are comprised of many dependent lifeline systems,the pattern of the restoration of each lifeline system can have an impact on one or more others.Due to the often uncertain and complex interactions between dense lifeline systems and their individual operations at the urban scale,it is typically unclear how different patterns of restoration will impact the overall recovery of lifeline system functioning.A difficulty in addressing this problem is the siloed nature of the knowledge and operations of different types of lifelines.Here,a city-wide,multi-lifeline restoration model and simulation are provided to address this issue.The approach uses the Graph Model for Operational Resilience,a data-driven discrete event simulator that can model the spatial and functional cascade of hazard effects and the pattern of restoration over time.A novel case study model of the District of North Vancouver is constructed and simulated for a reference magnitude 7.3 earthquake.The model comprises municipal water and wastewater,power distribution,and transport systems.The model includes 1725 entities from within these sectors,connected through 6456 dependency relationships.Simulation of the model shows that water distribution and wastewater treatment systems recover more quickly and with less uncertainty than electric power and road networks.Understanding this uncertainty will provide the opportunity to improve data collection,modeling,and collaboration with stakeholders in the future.展开更多
This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics...This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.展开更多
The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable elsewhere.In a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Unive...The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable elsewhere.In a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Universidad de Los Andes, Venezuela, the present study uses the Hazus 2.1 software to simulate earthquake loss estimations for Venezuela. Population totals and demographic distributions were developed using Oak Ridge National Labs Landscan 2008 population data and the census 2011 for Venezuela. The accuracy of the model was further enhanced for Me′rida State, located in western Venezuela, by collecting, incorporating, and developing region and specific inventories including soil maps, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility studies, demographic data, and building inventory information. We used USGS Shake Maps scenarios for two potential earthquake events with peak ground accelerations proposed within Performance Based Seismic Engineering of Buildings, VISION 2000 recommendations. The region has not witnessed an earthquake with a magnitude greater than M 7 in the last120 years. Given the historical record of seismicity and the seismotectonics in the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the potential implications from moderate to large earthquakes in Me′rida State, Venezuela.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40301003), the Open Project Program of Key Laboratory of Re-sources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture.
文摘Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.
文摘The epicenter intensity of Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with MS6. 0 was Ⅶ degrees; no fatalities but many residential buildings and public facilities were moderately damaged during the earthquake. Traffic and water conservation facilities were damaged to a certain extent but after emergency repair,production and life in the disaster area were not influenced. According to a sample survey of the earthquake filed,this earthquake caused direct economic loss of approximately 678. 46 million yuan( RMB),and the reconstruction funds required will be about 1. 20349 billion yuan( RMB).
文摘Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.
基金Science and Technology Development Fund Item of Shanghai !(962512006).
文摘For meeting the need of rapid development of economy in Shanghai and the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the mega city, it is necessary to build a information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in the city. In this paper, GIS is applied to 'the information system for emergence decision on the protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in Shanghai City (Baoshan experiment region)'. We introduce to the structure and effect of each functional module in this information system. This information system consists of 7 functional modules:background information of seismology and geology, subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake, subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence, information query, maintenance and management of system, help, quit. The key parts of this information system are the subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake and the subsystem for the decisive information on earthquake emergence. Also, this paper introduces to the application of technology of color infra-red aerial photograph remote sensing to this information system.
文摘ith urban reformation and opening becoming deeper,the work of protection against earthquake and disaster reduction would be more important.In this paper,some ideas are suggested about establishing the information system for emergency decisions on protection against earthquake and disaster reduction in cities .The information system mainly includes a subsystem for rapid evaluation of damage loss from earthquake (which includes input of seismic information,distribution of earthquake intensity,evaluation of seismic fragility on all social factors and etc.) and a subsystem for the decisive information of seismic emergency(which mainly includes project of disaster relief,project of personnel evacuation,dangerous degree warning for the dangerous articlesstoring places and protection measures against them,assistant decision on fire due to earthquake,location of headquarter for providing disaster relief,and etc.). It is thought that the data investigation and collection about all kinds of buildings(including lifeline engineering)are the most important and difficult work as establishing this system.
文摘In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all the social wealthes are classified according to their structural type and occupational use. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required by this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected disaster earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government to rescue and relief the earthquake disaster. This paper proposes a simple estimation method of earthquake loss based on macroscopic economical index of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population distribution data. A preliminary nonlinear relation among hazard loss, seismic intensity and social wealth was developed by means of some earthquake disaster records during 1980～1995. This method was applied to analyze several assumed earthquakes. The preliminary analysis results show that the new method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake loss.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB0204701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41922024&42204054)the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology(Grant No.2022B1212010002).
文摘An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of disaster losses are expected to provide a preliminary scientific reference for governments to carry out the targeted deployment of emergency rescue and post-disaster reconstruction.
文摘Restoring lifeline services to an urban neighborhood impacted by a large disaster is critical to the recovery of the city as a whole.Since cities are comprised of many dependent lifeline systems,the pattern of the restoration of each lifeline system can have an impact on one or more others.Due to the often uncertain and complex interactions between dense lifeline systems and their individual operations at the urban scale,it is typically unclear how different patterns of restoration will impact the overall recovery of lifeline system functioning.A difficulty in addressing this problem is the siloed nature of the knowledge and operations of different types of lifelines.Here,a city-wide,multi-lifeline restoration model and simulation are provided to address this issue.The approach uses the Graph Model for Operational Resilience,a data-driven discrete event simulator that can model the spatial and functional cascade of hazard effects and the pattern of restoration over time.A novel case study model of the District of North Vancouver is constructed and simulated for a reference magnitude 7.3 earthquake.The model comprises municipal water and wastewater,power distribution,and transport systems.The model includes 1725 entities from within these sectors,connected through 6456 dependency relationships.Simulation of the model shows that water distribution and wastewater treatment systems recover more quickly and with less uncertainty than electric power and road networks.Understanding this uncertainty will provide the opportunity to improve data collection,modeling,and collaboration with stakeholders in the future.
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-Resolution Imaging Technology (2022B1212010002)Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0203)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (KQTD20170810111725321)
文摘This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk.
文摘The focus of the Hazus earthquake model has been largely U.S. centric due to a lack of standardized building-infrastructure data formats applicable elsewhere.In a combined effort between FEMA Region VIII and the Universidad de Los Andes, Venezuela, the present study uses the Hazus 2.1 software to simulate earthquake loss estimations for Venezuela. Population totals and demographic distributions were developed using Oak Ridge National Labs Landscan 2008 population data and the census 2011 for Venezuela. The accuracy of the model was further enhanced for Me′rida State, located in western Venezuela, by collecting, incorporating, and developing region and specific inventories including soil maps, liquefaction and landslide susceptibility studies, demographic data, and building inventory information. We used USGS Shake Maps scenarios for two potential earthquake events with peak ground accelerations proposed within Performance Based Seismic Engineering of Buildings, VISION 2000 recommendations. The region has not witnessed an earthquake with a magnitude greater than M 7 in the last120 years. Given the historical record of seismicity and the seismotectonics in the region, it becomes increasingly important to understand the potential implications from moderate to large earthquakes in Me′rida State, Venezuela.
