Analytical Modeling of Disaster-induced Load Loss for Preventive Allocation of Mobile Power Sources in Urban Power Networks

Continuous power supply of urban power networks(UPNs)is quite essential for the public security of a city be-cause the UPN acts as the basis for other infrastructure net-works.In recent years,UPN is threatened by extreme weather events.An accurate modeling of load loss risk under extreme weather is quite essential for the preventive action of UPN.Con-sidering the forecast intensity of a typhoon disaster,this paper proposes analytical modeling of disaster-induced load loss for preventive allocation of mobile power sources(MPSs)in UPNs.First,based on the topological structure and fragility model of overhead lines and substations,we establish an analytical load loss model of multi-voltage-level UPN to quantify the spatial dis-tribution of disaster-induced load loss at the substation level.Second,according to the projected load loss distribution,a pre-ventive allocation method of MPS is proposed,which makes the best use of MPS and dispatches the limited power supply to most vulnerable areas in the UPN.Finally,the proposed meth-od is validated by the case study of a practical UPN in China.

Challenges and countermeasures for developing countries in addressing loss and damage caused by climate change

Loss and damage caused by extreme climate events have attracted increasing attention.The 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(hereinafter referred to as the Convention)has agreed to adopt Loss and Damage Fund agreement,which identified the source of funding and the funds to be entrusted to the World Bank.However,there is still ambiguous that how to allocate the funds could accelerate the effectiveness of meeting the needs for developing countries.Pre-disaster prevention and preparedness is one of the most effective measures to deal with loss and damage,which closely related to adaptation.Previous studies rarely analyzed quantitatively the financial needs of pre-disaster prevention and preparedness relating to adaptation to reduce loss and damage.Based on the official reports submitted by countries under the Convention,this study analyzes the annual change in the total financial support provided by developed countries to developing countries,the proportion of pre-disaster prevention and preparedness in the adaptation needs of developing countries,and the progress in raising the current annual funding target of 100 billion USD for developed countries,to reveal the financial and technical challenges facing by developing countries on addressing loss and damage.The results show that by 2030,the total adaptation financial needs of developing countries are estimated to be about 3.8 trillion USD,of which pre-disaster prevention matters account for about 9%.Therefore,by 2030,developing countries will need about 342 billion USD in pre-disaster prevention and preparedness finance to withstand loss and damage.In addition,developing countries face a lack of technical methods to quantify information about their needs.Based on the above analysis,this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions,including strengthening the allocation amount of loss and damage fund on pre-disaster warning,prevention and control actions,and establishing track modalities on the finance provided by developed countries to developing countries based on the principles of the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities(CBDR-RC),to provide favorable guarantee for accelerating the effectiveness of international climate governance.