Owing to overcoming the characteristics that there are many economic and technical indexes which are fuzzy and incompatibility to each other in evaluating investment project,a new method is proposed.The method is base...Owing to overcoming the characteristics that there are many economic and technical indexes which are fuzzy and incompatibility to each other in evaluating investment project,a new method is proposed.The method is based on the matter-element analysis and combined with the concepts of fuzzy mathematics,which is called the method of fuzzy matter-element analysis.It constructs the compound fuzzy matter element with the investment projects,evaluation factors and their fuzzy value.Through establishing the best subjection degree (fuzzy value),complex fuzzy matter element of relational coefficient and weight aggregation of fuzzy matter-element model,the writer achieves on optimum order of the investment projects according to the calculated relational degree and finds the best project.In this paper,the calculation of weight adopts the analytical hierarchy process method(AHP).Through the actual example,it shows that the model is simple and its calculation is reliable.It is very significant for the engineering evaluated bid and investment decision.展开更多
Unbalanced bidding is a cash flow management strategy that is recognized as an illegal/disqualifying practice by public owners;and unethical practice by most private owners. This practice provides the awarded bidder w...Unbalanced bidding is a cash flow management strategy that is recognized as an illegal/disqualifying practice by public owners;and unethical practice by most private owners. This practice provides the awarded bidder with unjustified advantages at the expense of the owner. Unfortunately, limited tools and techniques are currently available to identify and detect unbalanced bids during the evaluation process. This paper presents an innovative detection tool to identify unbalanced bids in unit price contracts during the bid evaluation process. The proposed technique develops BMDI graphs to visualize total markup variation patterns during the project lifetime to detect unbalanced bids. The proposed method also uses Monte Carlo simulation to take in consideration the impact of cost uncertainties and risks. An illustrative example was presented to show the capabilities and features of the proposed method in determining the status of submitted bids during the evaluation process.展开更多
随着“双碳”目标的提出,以风电为代表的可再生能源参与电力现货市场已是大势所趋。但由于具有不确定性和波动性,风电在市场中常处于不利地位。风电与具有灵活调节能力的光热电站(Concentrated Solar Power,CSP)联合能够减少实时出力偏...随着“双碳”目标的提出,以风电为代表的可再生能源参与电力现货市场已是大势所趋。但由于具有不确定性和波动性,风电在市场中常处于不利地位。风电与具有灵活调节能力的光热电站(Concentrated Solar Power,CSP)联合能够减少实时出力偏差,进而降低不平衡成本。基于此,本文针对风电—CSP电站联合参与现货市场的运行策略开展研究。首先,对风电—CSP电站联合参与现货市场的机理进行分析,在此基础上,以经济性最优为目标,综合考虑供电收益、冬季供暖收益和不平衡惩罚等因素,提出了考虑冬季供暖的风电—CSP电站联合参与电力现货市场运行策略,并基于Shapley值法对联盟收益进行分配,最后分析了储热容量对联盟收益的影响。算例表明所提联合运行策略能够充分利用CSP电站灵活性,显著提高双方收益,减少弃风损失。展开更多
负荷聚合商(load aggregator,LA)集成需求侧资源参与双重市场(能量市场和备用市场)投标,需要根据市场运营规则对具有不同行为特性的需求侧资源优化组合。文章考虑双重市场对响应资源的技术要求,从负荷削减量和响应时间2个方面体现需求...负荷聚合商(load aggregator,LA)集成需求侧资源参与双重市场(能量市场和备用市场)投标,需要根据市场运营规则对具有不同行为特性的需求侧资源优化组合。文章考虑双重市场对响应资源的技术要求,从负荷削减量和响应时间2个方面体现需求侧资源的不确定性,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论,考虑备用市场响应超时的违约风险,制定其在双重市场的资源集成优化投标策略,以响应电量不足期望评估聚合商参与双重市场的响应可靠性。算例分析不同风险偏好系数下聚合商利润与风险的动态关系,优化需求侧资源的容量配置,为聚合商双重市场的投标和风险度量提供参考。展开更多
基金Project supported by the National High-Tech Research and Development program of China (863 Program ) (No.2 0 0 2 AA2 Z42 5 1-2 10 0 41) Postdoctoral Scientific Foundation of Northeast Agricultural U niversity. (No. 2 40 0 0 9) and postdoctoral Scien
文摘Owing to overcoming the characteristics that there are many economic and technical indexes which are fuzzy and incompatibility to each other in evaluating investment project,a new method is proposed.The method is based on the matter-element analysis and combined with the concepts of fuzzy mathematics,which is called the method of fuzzy matter-element analysis.It constructs the compound fuzzy matter element with the investment projects,evaluation factors and their fuzzy value.Through establishing the best subjection degree (fuzzy value),complex fuzzy matter element of relational coefficient and weight aggregation of fuzzy matter-element model,the writer achieves on optimum order of the investment projects according to the calculated relational degree and finds the best project.In this paper,the calculation of weight adopts the analytical hierarchy process method(AHP).Through the actual example,it shows that the model is simple and its calculation is reliable.It is very significant for the engineering evaluated bid and investment decision.
文摘Unbalanced bidding is a cash flow management strategy that is recognized as an illegal/disqualifying practice by public owners;and unethical practice by most private owners. This practice provides the awarded bidder with unjustified advantages at the expense of the owner. Unfortunately, limited tools and techniques are currently available to identify and detect unbalanced bids during the evaluation process. This paper presents an innovative detection tool to identify unbalanced bids in unit price contracts during the bid evaluation process. The proposed technique develops BMDI graphs to visualize total markup variation patterns during the project lifetime to detect unbalanced bids. The proposed method also uses Monte Carlo simulation to take in consideration the impact of cost uncertainties and risks. An illustrative example was presented to show the capabilities and features of the proposed method in determining the status of submitted bids during the evaluation process.
文摘随着“双碳”目标的提出,以风电为代表的可再生能源参与电力现货市场已是大势所趋。但由于具有不确定性和波动性,风电在市场中常处于不利地位。风电与具有灵活调节能力的光热电站(Concentrated Solar Power,CSP)联合能够减少实时出力偏差,进而降低不平衡成本。基于此,本文针对风电—CSP电站联合参与现货市场的运行策略开展研究。首先,对风电—CSP电站联合参与现货市场的机理进行分析,在此基础上,以经济性最优为目标,综合考虑供电收益、冬季供暖收益和不平衡惩罚等因素,提出了考虑冬季供暖的风电—CSP电站联合参与电力现货市场运行策略,并基于Shapley值法对联盟收益进行分配,最后分析了储热容量对联盟收益的影响。算例表明所提联合运行策略能够充分利用CSP电站灵活性,显著提高双方收益,减少弃风损失。
文摘负荷聚合商(load aggregator,LA)集成需求侧资源参与双重市场(能量市场和备用市场)投标,需要根据市场运营规则对具有不同行为特性的需求侧资源优化组合。文章考虑双重市场对响应资源的技术要求,从负荷削减量和响应时间2个方面体现需求侧资源的不确定性,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)理论,考虑备用市场响应超时的违约风险,制定其在双重市场的资源集成优化投标策略,以响应电量不足期望评估聚合商参与双重市场的响应可靠性。算例分析不同风险偏好系数下聚合商利润与风险的动态关系,优化需求侧资源的容量配置,为聚合商双重市场的投标和风险度量提供参考。
