In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heav...In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heavy rainfall over South China.Two heavy rainfall episodes are selected during the months of April-June 2008-15,which represent the collaboration between the synoptic and quasi-biweekly disturbances and the synoptic and quasi-monthly disturbances,respectively.Results show that the first heavy rainfall episode takes place in a southwesterly anomalous flow associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea(SCS)at the quasi-biweekly scale with 15.1%variance contributions,and at the synoptic scale in a convergence zone between southwesterly and northeasterly anomalous flows associated with a southeastward-moving anticyclonic anomaly on the leeside of the Yungui Plateau and an eastwardpropagating anticyclonic anomaly from higher latitudes with 35.2%variance contribution.In contrast,the second heavy rainfall episode takes place in southwest-to-westerly anomalies converging with northwest-to-westerly anomalies at the quasi-monthly scale with 23.2%variance contributions to the total rainfall variance,which are associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and an eastward-propagating cyclonic anomaly over North China,respectively.At the synoptic scale,it occurs in south-to-southwesterly anomalies converging with a cyclonic anomaly on the downstream of the Yungui Plateau with 49.3%variance contributions.In both cases,the lower-tropospheric mean south-to-southwesterly flows provide ample moisture supply and potentially unstable conditions;it is the above synoptic,quasi-biweekly or quasimonthly disturbances that determine the general period and distribution of persistent heavy rainfall over South China.展开更多
A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolutio...A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective ceils are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature （θe） air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θe air. The cold outflow is weak （wind speed ≤ 5 m s-1）, which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2-3℃ and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands （of about 50-kin length） that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.展开更多
The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen...The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.展开更多
This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of c...This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of convection evolution in a high-impact heavy-rainfall event over coastal areas of South China during the pre-summer rainy season. An ensemble of 40 deterministic forecast experiments(40 DADF) with data assimilation(DA) is conducted, in which the DA starts at the same time but lasts for different time spans(up to 2 h) and with different time intervals of 6, 12, 24, and 30 min. The reference experiment is conducted without DA(NODA).To show more clearly the impact of radar DA on mesoscale convective system(MCS)forecasts, two sets of 60-member ensemble experiments(NODA EF and exp37 EF) are performed using the same 60-member perturbed-ensemble initial fields but with the radar DA being conducted every 6 min in the exp37 EF experiments from 0200 to0400 BST. It is found that the DA experiments generally improve the convection prediction. The 40 DADF experiments can forecast a heavy-rain-producing MCS over land and an MCS over the ocean with high probability, despite slight displacement errors. The exp37 EF improves the probability forecast of inland and offshore MCSs more than does NODA EF. Compared with the experiments using the longer DA time intervals, assimilating the radial-velocity observations at 6-min intervals tends to produce better forecasts. The experiment with the longest DA time span and shortest time interval shows the best performance.However, a shorter DA time interval(e.g., 12 min) or a longer DA time span does not always help. The experiment with the shortest DA time interval and maximum DA window shows the best performance, as it corrects errors in the simulated convection evolution over both the inland and offshore areas. An improved representation of the initial state leads to dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are more conducive to earlier initiation of the inland MCS and longer maintenance of the offshore MCS.展开更多
基金supported by Special project for Key Technology Development of Meteorological Forecast Operation [Grant No. YBGJXM (2019) 04-03]the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507403)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41475043)the National Basic Research (973) Program of China (Grant Nos. 2014CB441402 and 2015CB954102)
文摘In this study,power spectral analysis and bandpass filtering of daily meteorological fields are performed to explore the roles of synoptic to quasi-monthly disturbances in influencing the generation of pre-summer heavy rainfall over South China.Two heavy rainfall episodes are selected during the months of April-June 2008-15,which represent the collaboration between the synoptic and quasi-biweekly disturbances and the synoptic and quasi-monthly disturbances,respectively.Results show that the first heavy rainfall episode takes place in a southwesterly anomalous flow associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea(SCS)at the quasi-biweekly scale with 15.1%variance contributions,and at the synoptic scale in a convergence zone between southwesterly and northeasterly anomalous flows associated with a southeastward-moving anticyclonic anomaly on the leeside of the Yungui Plateau and an eastwardpropagating anticyclonic anomaly from higher latitudes with 35.2%variance contribution.In contrast,the second heavy rainfall episode takes place in southwest-to-westerly anomalies converging with northwest-to-westerly anomalies at the quasi-monthly scale with 23.2%variance contributions to the total rainfall variance,which are associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and an eastward-propagating cyclonic anomaly over North China,respectively.At the synoptic scale,it occurs in south-to-southwesterly anomalies converging with a cyclonic anomaly on the downstream of the Yungui Plateau with 49.3%variance contributions.In both cases,the lower-tropospheric mean south-to-southwesterly flows provide ample moisture supply and potentially unstable conditions;it is the above synoptic,quasi-biweekly or quasimonthly disturbances that determine the general period and distribution of persistent heavy rainfall over South China.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201406013 and GYHY201406003)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91437104)National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB417202)
文摘A long-lived, quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system （MCS） producing extreme ramtall （maximum of 542 mm） over the eastern coastal area of Guangdong Province on 20 May 2015 is analyzed by using high-resolution surface observations, sounding data, and radar measurements. New convective ceils are continuously initiated along a mesoscale boundary at the surface, leading to formation and maintenance of the quasi-linear-shaped MCS from about 2000 BT 19 to 1200 BT 20 May. The boundary is originally formed between a cold dome generated by previous convection and southwesterly flow from the ocean carrying higher equivalent potential temperature （θe） air. The boundary is subsequently maintained and reinforced by the contrast between the MCS-generated cold outflow and the oceanic higher-θe air. The cold outflow is weak （wind speed ≤ 5 m s-1）, which is attributable to the characteristic environmental conditions, i.e., high humidity in the lower troposphere and weak horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere. The low speed of the cold outflow is comparable to that of the near surface southerly flow from the ocean, resulting in very slow southward movement of the boundary. The boundary features temperature contrasts of 2-3℃ and is roughly 500-m deep. Despite its shallowness, the boundary appears to exert a profound influence on continuous convection initiation because of the very low level of free convection and small convection inhibition of the near surface oceanic air, building several parallel rainbands （of about 50-kin length） that move slowly eastward along the MCS and produce about 80% of the total rainfall. Another MCS moves into the area from the northwest and merges with the local MCS at about 1200 BT. The cold outflow subsequently strengthens and the boundary moves more rapidly toward the southeast, leading to end of the event in 3 h.
基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA05080100"135"strategic Research Project of IGSNRR,CAS,No.2012ZD001Basic Research Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology,No.2011FY120300
文摘The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41405050,91437104&41461164006)the Public Welfare Scientific Research Projects in Meteorology(Grant No.GYHY201406013)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB441402)
文摘This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of convection evolution in a high-impact heavy-rainfall event over coastal areas of South China during the pre-summer rainy season. An ensemble of 40 deterministic forecast experiments(40 DADF) with data assimilation(DA) is conducted, in which the DA starts at the same time but lasts for different time spans(up to 2 h) and with different time intervals of 6, 12, 24, and 30 min. The reference experiment is conducted without DA(NODA).To show more clearly the impact of radar DA on mesoscale convective system(MCS)forecasts, two sets of 60-member ensemble experiments(NODA EF and exp37 EF) are performed using the same 60-member perturbed-ensemble initial fields but with the radar DA being conducted every 6 min in the exp37 EF experiments from 0200 to0400 BST. It is found that the DA experiments generally improve the convection prediction. The 40 DADF experiments can forecast a heavy-rain-producing MCS over land and an MCS over the ocean with high probability, despite slight displacement errors. The exp37 EF improves the probability forecast of inland and offshore MCSs more than does NODA EF. Compared with the experiments using the longer DA time intervals, assimilating the radial-velocity observations at 6-min intervals tends to produce better forecasts. The experiment with the longest DA time span and shortest time interval shows the best performance.However, a shorter DA time interval(e.g., 12 min) or a longer DA time span does not always help. The experiment with the shortest DA time interval and maximum DA window shows the best performance, as it corrects errors in the simulated convection evolution over both the inland and offshore areas. An improved representation of the initial state leads to dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are more conducive to earlier initiation of the inland MCS and longer maintenance of the offshore MCS.
