Decadal trends in precipitable water vapor over the Indus River Basin using ERA5 reanalysis data

Precipitable Water Vapor(PWV)constitutes a pivotal parameter within the domains of atmospheric science,and remote sensing due to its profound influence on Earth’s climate dynamics and weather patterns.It exerts a significant impact on atmospheric stability absorption and emission of radiation,thus engendering alterations in the Earth’s radiative equilibrium.As such,precise quantification of PWV holds the potential to enhance weather prognostication and fortify preparedness against severe meteorological phenomena.This study aimed to elucidate the spatial and temporal changes in seasonal and annual PWV across the Indus River Basin and its sub-basins using ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The present study used ERA5 PWV(entire atmospheric column),air temperature at 2 m(t2m)and 500 hPa(T_500hPa),evapotranspiration,and total cloud cover data from 1960 to 2021.Theil Sen slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test were used for trend analysis.Correlation and multiple regression methods were used to understand the association of PWV with other factors.The findings have unveiled the highest increase in mean PWV during the monsoon(0.40 mm/decade),followed by premonsoon(0.37 mm/decade),post-monsoon(0.27 mm/decade),and winter(0.19 mm/decade)throughout the study period.Additionally,the mean PWV exhibited the most pronounced positive trend in the sub-basin Lower Indus(LI),followed by Panjnad(P),Kabul(K),and Upper Indus(UI)across all seasons,except winter.Annual PWV has also risen in the Indus basin and its sub-basins over the last six decades.PWV exhibits a consistent upward trend up to an elevation of 3500 m within the basin which is most pronounced during the monsoon season,followed by the pre-monsoon.The escalating PWV within the basin is reasonably ascribed to increasing air temperatures,augmented evapotranspiration,and heightened cloud cover.These findings hold potential utility for pertinent authorities engaged in water resource management and planning.

Validation of the Relationship between Precipitable Water and Surface Vapor Pressure by Means of Reanalysis Data

By means of ERA-40, JRA-25, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, empirical relations between precipitable water and surface vapor pressure in spatial and temporal scale were calculated. The reliabilities of precipitable water from reanalysis data were validated based on comparing different W-e empirical relations of various reanalysis data, in order to provide basis and reference for reasonable application. The results showed that W-e empirical relation of ERA-40 was closest to that of sounding data in China, and precipitable water from ERA-40 was the most credible. The worldwide comparison among W-e empirical relations of four reanalysis data showed that there was little difference in annual mean W-e empirical relations in the middle latitudes and great differences in low and high latitudes. Seasonal mean W-e empirical relations in the middle latitudes of the northern Hemisphere had little difference in spring, autumn and winter, but great difference in summer. Therefore, the reliabilities of precipitable water from reanalysis data in spring, autumn and winter in the middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere were higher than other areas and seasons. W-e empirical relations of NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE had good stability in different years, while there was poor stability in ERA-40 and JRA-25.

Moisture Analysis of a Squall Line Case Based on Precipitable Water Vapor Data from a Ground-Based GPS Network in the Yangtze River Delta

A squall line swept eastward across the area of the Yangtze River Delta and produced gusty winds and heavy rain from the afternoon to the evening of 24 August 2002. In this papers the roles of moisture in the genesis and development of the squall line were studied. Based on the precipitable water vapor （PWV） data from a ground-based GPS network over the Yangtze River Delta in China, plus data from a Pennsylvania State University/National Atmospheric Center （PSU/NCAR） mesoscale model （MM5） simulation, initialized by three-dimensional variational （3D-VAR） assimilation of the PWV data, some interesting features are revealed. During the 12 hours prior to the squall line arriving in the Shanghai area, a significant increase in PWV indicates a favorable moist environment for a squall line to develop. The vertical profile of the moisture illustrates that it mainly increased in the middle levels of the troposphere, and not at the surface. Temporal variation in PWV is a better precursor for squall line development than other surface meteorological parameters. The characteristics of the horizontal distribution of PWV not only indicated a favorable moist environment, but also evolved a cyclonic wind field for a squall line genesis and development. The ＂＋2 mm＂ contours of the three-hourly PWV variation can be used successfully to predict the location of the squall line two hours later.

Inversion Precipitable Water Vapor by GPS Observation of CMONOC

In this study, we have processed the GPS （Global Position System） and meteorological data from about 220 stations of CMONOC （Crustal Movement Observation Network of China in short） observed in 2014 by GAMIT software. The comparison result of ZTD （zenith total delay） calculated by GPS data and IGS （International GNSS （Global Navigation Satellite System） Service） ZTD product shows that the tropospheric delay based on calculation of CMONOC project data is accurate and reliable. Meanwhile, the PWV （precipitable water vapor） correlation coefficients between GPS observation and upper air sounding is close to 1, which proves that GPS observation data generated in CMONOC project applied to the weather forecast research is feasible. In addition, we make an isoline image for PWV distribution per hour on all stations covered the whole Chinese land area using interpolation algorithms. We observe obvious feature that the precipitable water in north and western area is less than south and east area all over this year. High latitudes area may be dry and low latitudes area is wet.

The Error Analysis for the Remote Sensing of Water Vapor Data by Ground Based GPS in Tengchong, Yunnan Province

Due to its special observation principle, GPS remote sensing atmospheric precipitation has the advantages of high time resolution and no weather conditions, and has been widely used in the research field of atmospheric precipitation. Using ground-based GPS precipitate water vapor data (GPS-PWV) and radiosonde-precipitate water vapor data (RS-PWV) that integrated by Radiosonde data, the error between GPS-PWV and RS-PWV in Tengchong is analyzed on its distribution of wet and dry seasons, also the difference between 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC. Results show that the RMSE of GPS-PWV and RS-PWV on both 00:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC are less than 5 mm, they correspond with each other well and their correlation coefficient is above 0.95, additionally, GPS-PWV value is stable than RS-PWV value. On the whole, the value of GPS-PWV is slightly larger than RS-PWV. And the mean absolute error between them has higher values, 4.5 mm in 2011 and 4.7 mm in 2012 from May to October (local rainy season) and lower values, 2.8 mm in 2011 and 3.1 mm in 2012 in November to April (local dry season). Besides, the mean absolute error in the morning seems has a difference with its component in the evening. Specifically, it is bigger on 12:00 UTC than on 00:00 UTC and the mean absolute errors on 12:00 UTC of two years are 27% and 11% larger than errors on 00:00 UTC respectively. The correlation of mean absolute error and surface vapor pressure, surface air temperature is examined in this study as well. We achieved that the correlation coefficient between mean absolute error and surface vapor pressure, surface air temperature equals 0.32, 0.37 separately. Diverse characters of mean absolute error under different precipitation conditions are also discussed. The outcome is that the mean absolute error has a higher value on rainy days and a lower value on clear days. However, during the precipitation periods, it appears that the mean absolute error and the rainfall situation don’t agree with each other well, it is likely to change randomly.

REMOTE SENSING OF WATER VAPOR CONTENT USING GROUND-BASED GPS DATA

Spatial and temporal resolution of water vapor content is useful in improving the accuracy of short_term weather prediction.Dense and continuously tracking regional GPS arrays will play an important role in remote sensing atmospheric water vapor content.In this study,a piecewise linear solution method was proposed to estimate the precipitable water vapor (PWV) content from ground_based GPS observations in Hong Kong.To evaluate the solution accuracy of the water vapor content sensed by GPS,the upper air sounding data (radiosonde) that are collected locally was used to calculate the precipitable water vapor during the same period.One_month results of PWV from both ground_based GPS sensing technique and radiosonde method are in agreement within 1～2 mm.This encouraging result will motivate the GPS meteorology application based on the establishment of a dense GPS array in Hong Kong.

Variational Assimilation of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Hourly Rainfall Observations for a Meso-βScale Heavy Precipitation Event During the 2002 Mei-Yu Season

Recent advances in Global Positioning System （GPS） remote sensing technology allow for a direct estimation of the precipitable water vapor （PWV） from delayed signals transmitted by GPS satellites, which can be assimilated into numerical models with four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation. A mesoscale model and its 4DVAR system are used to access the impacts of assimilating GPS-PWV and hourly rainfall observations on the short-range prediction of a heavy rainfall event on 20 June 2002. The heavy precipitation was induced by a sequence of meso-β-scale convective systems （MCS） along the mei-yu front in China. The experiments with GPS-PWV assimilation cluster and also eliminated the erroneous rainfall successfully simulated the evolution of the observed MCS systems found in the experiment without 4DVAR assimilation. Experiments with hourly rainfall assimilation performed similarly both on the prediction of MCS initiation and the elimination of erroneous systems, however the MCS dissipated much sooner than it did in observations. It is found that the assimilation-induced moisture perturbation and mesoscale low-level jet are helpful for the MCS generation and development. It is also discovered that spurious gravity waves may post serious limitations for the current 4DVAR algorithm, which would degrade the assimilation efficiency, especially for rainfall data. Sensitivity experiments with different observations, assimilation windows and observation weightings suggest that assimilating GPS-PWV can be quite effective, even with the assimilation window as short as 1 h. On the other hand, assimilating rainfall observations requires extreme cautions on the selection of observation weightings and the control of spurious gravity waves.

Empirical model for mean temperature and assessment of precipitable water vapor derived from GPS

The estimation of Precipitable Water Vapor （PWV） derived from Global Positioning System （GPS） data at the IGS site WUHN is assessed by comparing with PWV obtained from radiosonde data （No.57494） in Wuhan. The applicability of Saastamoinen （SAAS）, Hopfield and Black models used for estimating Zenith Hydrostatic Delay （ZHD） and Zenith Wet Delay （ZWD） and different models is verified in the estimation of GPS-derived PWV for the applied area. The experimental results demonstrated that ： 1 ） the precision of PWV estimated from Black model used for calculating ZHD （ ZHDs ） is lower than that of SAAS （ ZHDsAAs ） model and Hopfield model （ZHDn） with the RMS of 4. 16 ram; 2） the RMS of PWV estimated from SAAS model used for calculating ZWD （SAAS） is 3.78 ram; 3 ） the well-known Bevis model gives similar accuracy compared with the site-specific models for Tm in terms of surface temperature （ Ts ） and surface pressure （Ps）, which can reach the accuracy inside 1 mm in the GPS-derived PWV estimates.

Change Features of GPS/MET Precipitable Water Vapor in Different Precipitation in Lianyungang

Based on the GPS/MET water vapor monitoring data and conventional meteorological data at Lianyungang station from April to July, 2015, the relationship between precipitable water vapor and real precipitation was studied. According to different precipitation, change trends of precipitable water vapor in convective precipitation and steady precipitation were analyzed. Results showed that necessary condition of precipitation generation was high precipitable water vapor value in the air. Precipitable water vapor change presented wave-shape and phased characters. In convection precipitation, precipitable water vapor changed frequently and had larger change amplitude, while its change was slow in steady precipi- tation. The appearing time of the maximum values of rainfall intensity and precipitable water vapor was not necessarily consistent, but it was known that severe rainfall usually began at the high-value stage of precipitable water vapor, and high-value stage of precipitable water vapor often corresponded to higher precipitation probability. In addition, precipitable water vapor showed different characteristics in the above two different precipitation, and these results could provide a reference for precipitation forecast.

APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF ASSIMILATING RADAR-RETRIEVED WATER VAPOR IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF RAINFALL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA

A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.

基于GPS水汽观测网的一次冀中平原短时强降水的水汽特征分析

为深入研究强降水天气过程的水汽特征,利用地面常规气象观测资料和区域自动站资料、GPS可降水量以及ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)再分析资料,对2021年7月5-6日发生在冀中平原的一次强降水天气过程的水汽变化情况进行详细分析。结果表明:(1)此次天气过程出现在高空槽前和低空切变区内,强盛的中低空西南气流和水汽通量辐合为冀中平原提供了良好的水汽条件;(2)强降水出现时段集中在GPS可降水量峰值前后1 h内,当GPS可降水量跃升至40mm以上,且2~3h的增幅超过4.5mm时,降水强度迅速增大,或短时强降水突现,而当2h内GPS可降水量的降幅超过7.5 mm时,降水强度明显减弱。当GPS可降水量持续低于35 mm时,降水基本结束;(3)GPS可降水量数值的变化与降水强度有显著的对应关系,同时其空间分布差异也在一定程度上指示了强降水的开始、结束和落区。

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE QUALITY CONTROL METHOD FOR GUANGDONG GPS/PWV DATA AND ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN ITS ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.

Water Vapor Retrievals from Near-infrared Channels of the Advanced Medium Resolution Spectral Imager Instrument onboard the Fengyun-3D Satellite

Water vapor plays a key role in weather, climate and environmental research on local and global scales. Knowledge about atmospheric water vapor and its spatiotemporal variability is essential for climate and weather research. Because of the advantage of a unique temporal and spatial resolution, satellite observations provide global or regional water vapor distributions. The advanced Medium Resolution Spectral Imager (MERSI) instrument-that is, MERSI-II-onboard the Fengyun-3D (FY-3D) meteorological satellite, has been one of the major satellite sensors routinely providing precipitable water vapor (PWV) products to the community using near-infrared (NIR) measurements since June 2018. In this paper, the major updates related to the production of the NIR PWV products of MERSI-II are discussed for the first time. In addition, the water vapor retrieval algorithm based on the MERSI-II NIR channels is introduced and derivations are made over clear land areas, clouds, and sun-glint areas over the ocean. Finally, the status and samples of the MERSI-II PWV products are presented. The accuracy of MERSI-II PWV products is validated using ground-based GPS measurements. The results show that the accuracies of the water vapor products based on the updated MERSI-II instrument are significantly improved compared with those of MERSI, because MERSI-II provides a better channel setting and new calibration method. The root- mean-square error and relative bias of MERSI-II PWV products are typically 1.8-5.5 mm and −3.0% to −14.3%, respectively, and thus comparable with those of other global remote sensing products of the same type.

塔里木盆地及其周边地区大气可降水量分布及其与降水关系的研究

利用2018年7月至2022年6月塔里木盆地及其周边地区17部地基GPS水汽探测仪遥感的大气可降水量(PWV)资料、 14个地面气象站逐时和逐日降水资料,分析了塔里木盆地西部(区域A)和东部(区域B)PWV分布特征及其与降水关系。结果表明:(1)研究区年平均PWV高值区主要集中于盆地北部和盆地西南部平原地区,海拔超过1300 m站点的PWV年平均值与海拔成反比,低于1300 m的低海拔地区PWV年平均值在10~12 mm。夏季测站PWV平均值是春、秋季节的2倍。(2)区域A和区域B PWV月变化呈单峰型分布,分别在8月和7月达到峰值。区域A有、无降水日PWV均在23:00(北京时,下同)达到日峰值。区域B有、无降水日PWV日峰值出现时间相差5 h,分别出现在11:00和17:00。(3)区域A和区域B多数测站ΔPWV(PWV与PWV月平均值差值)峰值分别在降水开始前0~1 h和降水开始时刻前后1 h出现。春季区域B降水前PWV跃变程度较区域A更剧烈,夏季各区域σPWV(PWV与PWV月平均值倍数)提前降水开始时刻1 h、 5~6 h达到1~1.8倍的天气过程较其余时次偏多。秋季和冬季区域BσPWV分别集中在1.4~2.0倍和1.6~2.4倍。(4)海拔高于1400 m测站的5-6月、 7-8月PWV值达到10~20 mm和15~25 mm,对应降水结束时刻。海拔低于1400 m测站5-8月降水结束时刻PWV值逐渐由15~25 mm增至25~35 mm。

地基BDS/GNSS水汽监测在水利领域的研究进展与展望

地球上几乎所有的水汽都集中在对流层,水汽含量对全球气温、降水等气象要素都有很大的影响,在一定程度上可以影响地球气候变化,在全球范围内调节热量平衡.对对流层水汽监测、水资源管理、极端天气预警和气候变化研究等具有十分重要的作用.在北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, BDS)/GNSS技术持续发展和完善的过程中,BDS/GNSS大气可降水量反演(precipitable water vapor,PWV)逐渐成为一种新型的水汽探测技术,相较于传统水汽探测技术可实现对水汽高精度、近实时的监测.本文对BDS/GNSS PWV反演的发展历程及研究现状进行了系统地综述,阐明其反演原理与方法,主要从高精度水汽监测、降水短临预报、气候变化及旱涝监测方面分析地基BDS/GNSS水汽监测在水利领域中的应用与发展方向.

用GPS可降水量资料对一次大—暴雨过程的分析

利用2 0 0 2年9月1 0～2 0日GPS的可降水量资料与实况降水场做了分析比较,结果表明,每30分钟的可降水量连续观测资料对实际降水预报有着一定的指导意义。首先,可降水量第一次达到及最后一次出现50mm的时间与实际降水的开始、结束时间有着较好的对应关系,而可降水量≥50mm的持续时间越长,实际降水量也就越大,反之则相反;其次,可降水量的3小时及2 4小时变化对预报未来降水区域和雨量分布有着一定的指示作用;最后,可降水量在降水过程中不同阶段的趋势变化反映了50 0hPa流场、70 0hPa水汽通量场的变化,这为实际降水预报中水汽的来源及输送提供了更有利的依据。

GPS遥感的大气可降水量与局地降水关系的初步分析

该文利用 2 0 0 2年“973”项目安徽GPS外场试验和 2 0 0 0年北京GPS/VAPOR试验积累的资料对GPS遥感的大气可降水量与局地降水之间关系进行了定量分析。结果表明 :在降水前后 ,GPS遥感的大气可降水量有很大的变化 ;在 2 0 0 2年入梅前后 ,其变化甚至大于 30mm ;在海拔高的山区台站 ,2hGPS遥感的大气可降水量增量和本站是否发生降水关系密切 ;多数情况下 ,降水出现在GPS遥感的大气可降水量迅速增加的 3～ 4h内 ;每小时降水量峰值和GPS遥感的大气可降水量增量的大小有关。

地面GPS探测大气可降水量的初步结果

地面全球定位系统 （ Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ） 探测大气可降水量时空分布的可行性和可靠性研究，对地面 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 用于提高预报降水和恶劣天气的准确性和气候变化的研究具有重要作用。收集了覆盖于全国的２３ 个站和我国周边的６ 个国际 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 服务 （ Ｉ Ｇ Ｓ） 基准站为期６ ｄ 的 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 观测资料， 组成了一个 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 气象学的区域性地面实验网， 进行了我国首次 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 气象学试验。归算用的软件是在美国麻省理工学院 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 分析软件 Ｇ Ａ Ｍ Ｉ Ｔ 基础上发展起来的上海天文台 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 精密定轨定位软件 Ｓ Ｈ Ａ Ｇ Ａ Ｐ。为了提高对流层天顶延迟的监测精度和分辨率， 我们采用了分段的参数估计和随机过程相结合的估算方法来处理对流层延迟， 由此获得了分辨率分别为２ ｈ 和３０ ｍｉｎ ， 精度好于１ ｃｍ 的天顶延迟量。通过天顶干延迟和天顶湿延迟的分离和天顶湿延迟到可降水量的转换， 得到了精度为１ ～２ ｍ ｍ 的可降水量的计算结果。将这些结果与实测探空仪资料计算的结果相比较， 两者基本符合。试验的结果初步验证了地面 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ 观测为气象服务的可行性和可靠性。同时指出了今后地面 Ｇ Ｐ Ｓ

应用GPS资料反演南极大气可降水量的试验分析

本文研究的主要内容是从对流层天顶延迟来反演大气中的可降水量。利用我国长城和中山两站 1 998、1 999、2 0 0 0年参加全南极GPS国际联测所取得的南极地区的GPS数据 ,组成各期GPS网 ;采用高精度的GAMIT/GLOBK软件进行基线解算和网平差处理 ,使用多种数据处理方案 ,得到各时段两站对流层的天顶总延迟值 ,采用了Saastamonien和Hopfield两种模型分别进行天顶静力学延迟的解算来分离天顶静力学延迟。从两站的历史气象资料出发 ,通过回归计算得到适合两站 1、2月份的转换系数K ;然后进行天顶湿延迟至可降水量的转换 ,结合现场的气象资料进行对比分析。各期数据均取得了较为满意的结果。

2002年台风Ramasun影响华东沿海期间可降水量的GPS观测和分析

介绍了 2 0 0 2年建成的长江三角洲地区GPS (全球定位系统 )网对台风Ramasun影响华东沿海地区时可降水量的探测 ,指出GPS探测的可降水量 (PWV)与加密探空资料所计算的可降水量具有高度的一致性。通过对多站GPS资料时间序列的分析 ,揭示了在台风影响过程中PWV的三个阶段的变化特征 :在台风降水产生前PWV都有一个急升的过程 ,PWV的急升时间长短、升幅、量值大小反映了水汽累积情况 ,它与台风过程降水总量、每小时降水量大小有较好的对应关系 ;PWV急升达到峰值后进入高值波动阶段 ,一般在达到峰值后 7～ 1 0小时开始出现明显的降水 ,在这一阶段中PWV时间序列的波动和空间分布特征与台风降水的短时变化和螺旋雨带演变有较好的对应关系 ;PWV的急降则反映台风降水即将结束。