Analysis of Precipitation Anomaly and a Failed Prediction During the Dragon-boat Rain Period in 2022

This study investigates the possible causes for the precipitation of Guangdong during dragon-boat rain period(DBRP) in 2022 that is remarkably more than the climate state and reviews the successes and failures of the prediction in2022. Features of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST) are analyzed based on several observational datasets for nearly 60 years from meteorological stations and the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data. Results show that fluctuation of the 200-h Pa westerly wind as well as the westerly jet is strengthened due to the propagation of wave energy, leading to strong updraft over southern China. Activities of a subtropical high and a shear line provide favorable conditions for the transport of moisture to Guangdong. With the support of powerful southwest winds, extreme precipitation is induced. ENSO is a good indicator of atmospheric circulation at mid-and high-levels during the DBRP in2022 but it performs badly at low levels. During recent years, the influence of ENSO on precipitation during the DBRP has decreased obviously. The SSTA of tropical southeast Atlantic(SEA) in spring may become the key indicator. During the years with warm SEA, wave trains propagate from northwest to southeast over Eurasia with energy enhancing the westerly jet, conducive to updraft over southern China and the occurrence of heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, the Rossby wave is triggered over Maritime Continent by heat sources of southern Atlantic-western Indian Ocean through the Gill response. Thus, strong transport of moisture and heavy rainfall occur.

Microphysical Characteristics of Precipitation during Pre-monsoon,Monsoon, and Post-monsoon Periods over the South China Sea

Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics over the South China Sea (SCS) are examined with onboard Parsivel disdrometer measurements collected during marine surveys from 2012 to 2016. The observed rainfall is divided into premonsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods based on the different large-scale circumstances. In addition to disdrometer data, sounding observation, FY-2E satellite, SPRINTARS (Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species), and NCEP reanalysis datasets are used to illustrate the dynamical and microphysical characteristics associated with the rainfall in different periods. Significant variations have been observed in respect of raindrops among the three periods. Intercomparison reveals that small drops (D < 1 mm) are prevalent during pre-monsoon precipitation, whereas medium drops (1?3 mm) are predominant in monsoon precipitation. Overall, the post-monsoon precipitation is characterized by the least concentration of raindrops among the three periods. But, several large raindrops could also occur due to severe convective precipitation events in this period. Classification of the precipitation into stratiform and convective regimes shows that the lg(Nw) value of convective rainfall is the largest (smallest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period, whereas the Dm value is the smallest (largest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period. An inversion relationship between the coefficient A and the exponential b of the Z?R relationships for precipitation during the three periods is found. Empirical relations between Dm and the radar reflectivity factors at Ku and Ka bands are also derived to improve the rainfall retrieval algorithms over the SCS. Furthermore, the possible causative mechanisms for the significant RSD variability in different periods are also discussed with respect to warm and cold rain processes, raindrop evaporation, convective activities, and other meteorological factors.

Periodical attenuation of Al(OH)_3 particles from seed precipitation in seeded sodium aluminate solution

Periodical attenuation of particles,which interferes seriously the normal alumina production,exists in Bayer process.In order to solve this problem,the rule of periodical attenuation of Al(OH) 3 particles was investigated by laboratory experiments under simulated industrial conditions.The results show that at higher temperature the variation period of particle size is shortened,while prolongs with more solid content.Particle size fluctuation amplitude reduces with the temperature rising but increases with the solid content increasing.Particle size distribution becomes more uniform by replenishing fine seeds,enabling the periodical fluctuation of Al(OH)3 particle size to be attenuated.Combining properly the additives with controlling the seed size is able to reduce the amplitude of periodical fluctuation and shorten the attenuation time.With unbalance of particle size distribution,the particles gradually become bigger,even inducing the decrease of the specific surface area of seeds,which is the major reason causing explosive attenuation of Al(OH)3 particles in seed precipitation process.

The Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Variation of Strong Precipitation Caused Flood and Agricultural Disaster Loss in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu Period of 2007

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation of strong precipitation caused flood and agricultural disaster loss in Huaihe River basin of Anhui Province during Meiyu period of 2007.[Method] On the basis of rainfalls of each station in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,rainfall data during Meiyu period of 2007 and flood disaster data in the same period,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of strong precipitation caused flood during Meiyu period of 2007 and its harm on agriculture were analyzed.The variation rule,distribution characteristics of strong precipitation during Meiyu period in Huaihe River basin of Anhui and its relationship with agricultural disaster loss were discussed.[Result] During Meiyu period of 2007 in Huaihe River basin of Anhui,the rainstorm was more,and the rainfall was large.The precipitation variation showed 'three-peak' trend.Rainfall in Huaihe River basin during Meiyu period of 2007 was greatly more than that homochronously in Yangtze River basin.The rain area over 400.0 mm during Meiyu period mainly located in Huaihe River basin,and the rain area over 600.0 mm mainly located from area along Huaihe River to central Huaibei.The rainfall during Meiyu period gradually decreased toward south and north by the north bank of Huaihe River as the symmetry axis.The rainfall in area along Huaihe River showed wavy distribution in east-west direction.The flood disaster loss index and disaster area of crops in Huaihe River basin of Anhui both increased as rainfall in Meiyu period.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for flood prevention,disaster reduction and agricultural flood-avoiding development in Huaihe River basin.

Climate Change Characteristics and Return Periods of Heavy Precipitation in the Northeast Side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.

Analysis on Change Tendency of the Precipitation Resource during Growth Period of the Conventional Crops in Plain Area before Taihang Mountains

[Objective] The aim was to study change tendency of the precipitation resource during growth period of the conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains. [ Method] Based on daily precipitation data at Shijiazhuang meteorological station in recent 51 years, average rainfall dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops was obtained. Precipitation tendency dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains was analyzed by Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. [ Result] Seen from rainfall during growth pedods of the different crops, rainfall was the least during the growth period of winter wheat, followed by summer corn. Rainfall during growth peri- ods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato, rice and legumes was more. Under different guaranteed rates, precipitation change also had difference. Rainfall change during growth periods of the wheat and corn was bigger, and rainfall change during growth period of the rice was smaller. Change degree of the precipitation during growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree and legumes was equivalent, while precipitation change during growth period of the potato was the biggest. Seen from change tendency of the precipitation during growth periods of the different crops, precipitation in the growth period of winter wheat was increasing at a speed of 0.62 mm/a. However, precipitation in growth periods of the other crops had a decreasing tendency. Precipitation in the growth periods of summer corn and legumes decreased at the same speed which was 2.11 mm/a, while precipitation in growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato and rice decreased insignificantly. [ Con dusion] The study laid foundation for determination of the agricultural irrigation water and provided theoretical reference for regional agricultural water-saving.

The Variation Rule and Anomaly Features of the Available Precipitation in the Growth Period of Crops in the Middle and Southern Part of Ningxia

[ Objective] The aim was to study the available precipitation and its abnormal characteristics during the growth period of crops in the mid- dle and southern part of Ningxia. [ Methed] Through Takahashi＇s evaporation equation, linear trend analysis, Mann -Kendall, Lepage, wavelet analysis, the characteristics of available precipitation and its abnormal characteristics during its growth period in Ningxia were analyzed based on monthly precipitation （March- September）, temperature, and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data in 9 observation stations from 1961 to 2010. E Result l In recent 50 years, the available precipitation during the growth period of crops in central drought area and south hilly area varied a lot, more in the south and less in the north. The available precipitation in these two areas was reducing and varied a lot in different ages. The available precipitation was less in the middle drought region after 1970s and in the southern hilly region after 1990s and the available precipitation in middle drought area changed significantly. The available precipitation in the two areas appeared in July, August, and September, above 76% of general growth period, while that in March, April and May was 14% lower than that in growth period. No abrupt changes in central drought area and south hilly area. There were the periods of 5 -7 a and 2 -3 a oscillations in the middle drought region, 2 -3 a and 10 -12 a oscillations in the southern hilly region. There were negative anomaly field at 500hPa height in high-precipitation years between the Baikal and the China＇s northwestern, and there were positive anomaly field in low-precipitation years. [ Cenclusion] The study provided reference for the reasonable utilization of available water resources in cen- tral and south Ningxia.

Simulation of pre-precipitation in Ni_(75)Al_(14)Mo_(11) alloy by microscopic phase-field model

The early precipitation process of Ni（75）Al（14）Mo（11） alloy was simulated by microscopic phase-field model at different temperatures.The microstructure of the alloy,the precipitation time of Llo structure and occupation probability of the three kinds of atoms were investigated.It is indicated that the non-stoichiometric Ll0（Ⅰ/Ⅱ） phases are found in the precipitation process.With the temperature increasing,the appearance time of Ll0 is brought forward.The Ll0（Ⅱ） structure always precipitates earlier than the Ll0（Ⅰ） structure.Compared with lower temperature,higher temperature brings the formation time of Ll0 phase forward and makes Ll0 phase have a higher order degree.But lower temperature shortens the process time of the Ll0 phase to the Ll2 phase.Al and Mo atoms tend to occupy γ site,Ni atom tends to occupy a and β sites.At the same temperature,Al atom has stronger occupation ability than Mo atom in the same site.Ni,Al and Mo collectively form the composited Ll2 structure.

Variation Characteristics and Tendency of Precipitation in Chaoyang Area between 1908 and 2008

According to the precipitation sequence of Beijing City from 1900 to 1958,the precipitation sequence of Chengde City were revised and extended.Then the precipitation sequence of Chaoyang City were revised and extended with the precipitation sequence of Chengde City to form 100-years precipitation sequence of Chaoyang.The results showed that the 100-years precipitation sequence of Chaoyang indicated a decreasing trend and obvious periodic variation with the change of age.That is,a 10-year rainy period (approximately 525.0 mm) appeared every 30 a,while the 30-year drought period was approximately 460.0 mm,65.0 mm lower than the former.Moreover,an obviously heavy drought lasting for 2-4 a appeared every 20 a.

Change trend analysis of ammonia nitrogen in Nenjiang River main stream under fluctuating precipitation

将2004-2010年嫩江流域沿途13个气象站的降水量作为径流的主要考察因子，以嫩江最下游的自沙滩水环境监测站获得的氨氮监测数据为流域总体氨氮污染水平表征，分析了降水波动对嫩江流域氨氮污染变化的影响。结果表明，嫩江流域在年度内的氨氮质量浓度以枯水期最高，平均为（0．99±0．48）mg／L，在丰水期最低，平均为（O．58±0．08）mg／L。从年际总体变化趋势来看，2004-2010年嫩江流域氨氮浓度总体呈增加趋势。降水量的年内分布格局对嫩江流域氨氮浓度的影响在不同时期略有差别。在平水期，降水量变化对氨氮浓度的影响不显著；但在枯水期、丰水期，降水量的波动对氨氮浓度有较显著（Sig．〈O．05）的影响。从年尺度上看，随降水量增加，嫩江流域中氨氮浓度总体呈下降趋势。

The interannual periodicity of precipitation and its links to the large-scale circulations over the Third Pole

To understand the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation(P)in the Third Pole region(centered on the Tibetan Plateau-TP),it is necessary to quantify the interannual periodicity of P and its relationship with large-scale circulations.In this study,Morlet wavelet transform was used to detect significant(p<0.05)periodic characteristics in P data from meteorological stations in four climate domains in the Third Pole,and to reveal the major large-scale circulations that triggered the variability of periodic P,in addition to bringing large amounts of water vapour.The wavelet transform results were as follows.(1)Significant quasiperiodicity varied from 2 to 11 years.The high-frequency variability mode(2 to 6 years quasi-periods)was universal,and the low-frequency variability mode(7 to 11 years quasi-periods)was rare,occurring mainly in the westerlies and Indian monsoon domains.(2)The majority of periods were base periods(53%),followed by two-base periods.Almost all stations in the Third Pole(95%)showed one or two periods.(3)Periodicity was widely detected in the majority of years(84%).(4)The power spectra of P in the four domains were dominated by statistically significant high-frequency oscillations(ie.,with short periodicity).(5)Large-scale circulations directly and indirectly influenced the periodic P variability in the different domains.The mode of P variability in the different domains was influenced by interactions between large-scale circulation features and not only by the dominant circulation and its control of water vapour transport.The results of this study will contribute to better understanding of the causal mechanisms associated with P variability,which is important for hydrological science and waterresourcemanagement.

Climatic trends of different intensity heavy precipitation events concentration in China

Based on 740 stations of daily precipitation datasets in China, the precipitationconcentration degree （PCD） and precipitation-concentration period （PCP） of different intensity durative precipitation events were calculated to analyze their statistical characteristics, mainly including spatial and temporal distributions, variations and climatic trends of the two parameters of the durative heavy precipitation events in China. It is proved that these two parameters of heavy rainfall can display the temporal inhomogeneity in the precipitation field. And it is also found that there is a good positive relationship between the precipitation-concentration degree and annual rainfall amount in the Eastern and Central China. This method can be anolied in flood assessment and climate change fields.

Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

SIMULATING THE RESPONSE OF NON-UNIFORMITY OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER CHINA TO CO_2 INCREASING BY MIROC_HIRES MODEL

The response of non-uniformity of precipitation extremes over China to doubled CO2has been analyzed using the daily precipitation simulated by a coupled general circulation model,MIROC_Hires.The major conclusions are as follows:under the CO2increasing scenario(SRES A1B),the climatological precipitation extremes are concentrated over the southern China,while they are uniformly distributed over the northern China.For interannual variability,the concentration of precipitation extremes is small over the southern China,but it is opposite over the northern China.The warming effects on the horizontal and vertical scales are different over the northern and southern part of China.Furthermore,the atmospheric stability is also different between the two parts of China.The heterogeneous warming is one of the possible reasons for the changes in non-uniformity of precipitation extremes over China.

Phenomena of Periodic Precipitaion in Rare Earth-Cholate Diffusion Systems

The precipitate patterns were studied in rare earthcholate diffusion systems. The corresponding precipitates were characterized by Forie Transformed Infrared(FTIR) and Extended XRay Absorption Fine Structure(EXAFS) spectroscopy. The experimental results indicate that rare earth ions tend to produce periodic precipitation, and the pattern precipitates are just the corresponding rare earth cholate complexes.

Study on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration Degree in Guangxi under the Background of Global Climate Becoming Warm

Based on the daily precipitation data of 87 meteorological observation stations in Guangxi during 1961-2008,the variation characteristics of precipitation concentration degree(PCD) in Guangxi were counted and analyzed by using Monte Carlo test method.The results showed that the climate warming in most areas of Guangxi was very obvious,and the annual precipitation concentration degree increased gradually from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.The precipitation concentration period was from the middle of April to the end of August and delayed from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.In the background which the global climate became warm,the annual precipitation in most areas of Guangxi had the trend which the precipitation concentrated strengthening.It was said that the probability of flood disaster had the increase trend.The precipitation concentration period had the earlier trend,which was more obvious in the north than in the south of Guangxi.The rainstorm concentration degree in the northwest of Guangxi and few parts had the decrease trend and had the increase trend in other areas.It was said that the probabilities of flood and mud-rock flow disasters increased.The rainstorm concentration periods in most areas had the later trend.

Characteristics and Cause Analysis of Variations in Light Precipitation Events in the Central and Eastern Tibetan Plateau,China,During 1961–2019

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)is one of the most sensitive areas and is more susceptible to climate change than other regions in China.The TP also experiences extremely frequent light precipitation events compared to precipitation of other intensities.However,the definition,influencing factors,and characteristics of light precipitation in the TP have not been accurately explained.This study investigated the variation characteristics of light precipitation with intensities(Pre)of 0.1-10.0 mm/d based on climate data from 53 meteorological stations over the central and eastern TP from 1961 to 2019.For detailed analysis,light precipitation events were classified into five grades:G1[0.1-2.0 mm/d),G2[2.0-4.0 mm/d),G3[4.0-6.0 mm/d),G4[6.0-8.0 mm/d),and G5[8.0-10.0 mm/d).The results showed that both the amount of precipitation and number of precipitation days had increased significantly at rates of 4.0-6.0 mm/10 yr and 2.0-4.0 d/10 yr,respectively,and most precipitation events were of low intensity(0.1≤Pre<2.0 mm/d).Light precipitation events mainly occurred in the southeast of the study area,and it showed an increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast.Abrupt changes in light precipitation primarily occurred in the 1980 s.A comprehensive time series analysis using the Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet was performed to characterize the abrupt changes and cycles of light precipitation.During the study period,the main periods of light precipitation corresponded to the 6 yr cycle,with obvious periodic oscillation characteristics,and this cycle coexisted with cycles of other scales.Significant correlations were observed between the amount of light precipitation and temperature over the study area.The findings will enhance our understanding of changes in light precipitation in the TP and provide Scientific basis for the definition of light precipitation in the future.

Analysis of Intra-annual Heterogeneous Characteristics of Precipitation in Shaoguan City

Based on the daily precipitation data between 1965 and 2009 from 8 rainfall stations in Shaoguan City,the indexes of precipitation concentration degree（ PCD） and precipitation concentration period（ PCP） were calculated. And then inverse distance weighted（ IDW） interpolation method was used to analyze the heterogeneous distribution characteristics of inter-annual precipitation by introducing the spatial distribution of annual mean values,variable coefficients,correlation coefficients with annual precipitation,change trends and composite analysis. The results showed that PCD was mainly decreasing from southeast to northwest in spatial distribution,long-term average annual values of PCP were distributed in the first ten days of June at most region. Annual precipitation increased as PCD increased in southern region,but the change trend was the opposite in northern region. Annual precipitation increased as PCP lagged in most region. PCD and PCP mainly appeared upward trend. Composite analysis of PCD in more-precipitation years was similar to less-precipitation years in spatial distribution,but the PCD in less-precipitation years was higher.Seen from the mean in the whole region,PCP in more-precipitation years lagged about 20 days behind those in less-precipitation years. The research can provide basis for the production of agriculture and industry as well as disaster prevention and reduction.

近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析

以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。

近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程气候特征及长期变化规律

【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标,对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别,并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律。【结果】结果表明:(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现,平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次,主要出现在5—9月,尤以6—7月为集中发生时段。区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日,末次结束日期为9月17日。平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站,持续时间1.3 d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d。(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2~3 a和8 a左右的变化周期,年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4~6 a和8~11 a周期变化。(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前,末次结束日期无明显变化,发生期显著变长;发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势,但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势。(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象。【结论】研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑。