Differences in spring precipitation over southern China associated with multiyear La Ni?a events

Composite analyses were performed in this study to reveal the difference in spring precipitation over southern China during multiyear La Ni?a events during 1901 to 2015. It was found that there is significantly below-normal precipitation during the first boreal spring, but above-normal precipitation during the second year. The difference in spring precipitation over southern China is correlative to the variation in western North Pacific anomalous cyclone(WNPC), which can in turn be attributed to the different sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) over the Tropical Pacific. The remote forcing of negative SSTA in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and the local air-sea interaction in the western North Pacific are the usual causes of WNPC formation and maintenance.SSTA in the first spring is stronger than those in the second spring. As a result, the intensity of WNPC in the first year is stronger, which is more likely to reduce the moisture in southern China by changing the moisture transport, leading to prolonged precipitation deficits over southern China. However, the tropical SSTA signals in the second year are too weak to induce the formation and maintenance of WNPC and the below-normal precipitation over southern China. Thus, the variation in tropical SSTA signals between two consecutive springs during multiyear La Ni?a events leads to obvious differences in the spatial pattern of precipitation anomaly in southern China by causing the different WNPC response.

Extreme Precipitation Probability over East China in Spring and Summer During the Decaying of Two Types of El Niño Events

Based on the surface-gridded daily precipitation dataset and the simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,this study investigates the variation of extreme precipitation probability over East China in spring and summer during the decaying year of East Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP)El Niño events and explores possible influencing mechanisms.The results show that for the EP El Niño,in spring,the probability of extreme precipitation is much higher in the vast majority of East China.The anticyclonic water vapor transport in the Northwest Pacific and the higher temperature in East China jointly result in a large amount of water vapor converging and ascending in East China,which is conducive to extreme precipitation events in this region.In summer,the probability of extreme precipitation events decreases,but is still high in the Yangtze River Basin,corresponding to the weak and northerly anticyclone over the Northwest Pacific and the convergence and ascending of water vapor in the Yangtze River Basin.For the CP El Niño,the most obvious probability increase of extreme precipitation events appears over Northeast China and the Yangtze River Basin in spring.These regions are featured by positive geopotential height anomalies and strong northerly wind.Meanwhile,the temperature in Northeast China is slightly lower.In summer,the probability of extreme precipitation events in most areas significantly increases.The anomalous cold high-pressure center over the north of the South China Sea is notably strong,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone expands to the west and the north.East China is mainly affected by the warm-wet southwesterly airflow,which is conducive to extreme precipitation events.The United States Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model well represents the probability distribution of extreme precipitation events and the atmospheric circulation of the EP/CP El Niño.However,compared with observations,there are some biases,such as the higher probability of extreme precipitation in Central China in summer under the EP El Niño.

Assessment of the Application of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM Satellite Precipitation Products for Extreme Dry and Wet Events Monitoring in Togo (2001-2019)

Togo’s economy is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Therefore, anomalies in precipitation can have a significant impact on crop yields, affecting food production and security. Thus, monitoring anomalous climate conditions in Togo through the combination of precipitation satellite-based data and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) help anticipate the development of drought scenarios or excessive rainfall, allowing farmers to adjust their strategies and minimize losses. Continuous and adequate spatial monitoring of these climate anomalies provided by satellite-based products can be central to an effective early warning system (EWS) implementation in Togo. Precipitation satellite-based products have been presented invaluable tools for assessing droughts and , offering timely and comprehensive data that supports a wide range of applications. In this study, we applied the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rainfall product, a unified satellite global precipitation product developed by NASA, to identify and characterize the severity of dry and wet climate events in Togo during the period from 2001 to 2019. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), as the main index recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to monitor drought wide world, was selected as the reference index to monitor dry and wet climate events across Togo regions. The results show two distinct major climate periods in Togo in the timeframe analyzed (2001-2019), one dominated by wet events from 2008 to 2010, and a second marked by severe and extreme dry events from 2013 to 2015;MERG rainfall and SPI combination were able to capture these events consistently.

Analysis of Heavy Precipitation Event in Northeast China from August 1 to 5, 2023

This study delves into the multiple weather systems and their interaction mechanisms that caused the severe rainfall event in Northeast China in early August 2023. The analysis reveals that the atmospheric circulation in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent exhibited a significant “two troughs and two ridges” structure, with Northeast China located precisely in the peripheral region of the subtropical high, significantly influenced by its marginal airflows. Additionally, the residual circulation of Typhoon “Doksuri” interacting with the subtropical high and upper-level troughs significantly increased the rainfall intensity and duration in the region. In particular, the continuous and powerful transport of the southwest jet provided the necessary moisture and unstable conditions for the generation and development of convective systems. The rainfall event resulted in nearly 40,000 people affected and crop damage covering an area of approximately 4000 hectares, demonstrating the severity of extreme weather. The study emphasizes that strengthening meteorological monitoring and early warning systems, as well as formulating and improving emergency response mechanisms, are crucial for reducing potential disaster losses caused by heavy rainfall. Future research can further explore the interaction mechanisms among weather systems, limitations of data sources, and the connection between long-term trends of heavy rainfall events and global climate change.

Review of precipitation strengthening in ultrahigh-strength martensitic steel

Martensite is an important microstructure in ultrahigh-strength steels,and enhancing the strength of martensitic steels often involves the introduction of precipitated phases within the martensitic matrix.Despite considerable research efforts devoted to this area,a systematic summary of these advancements is lacking.This review focuses on the precipitates prevalent in ultrahigh-strength martensitic steel,primarily carbides(e.g.,MC,M_(2)C,and M_(3)C)and intermetallic compounds(e.g.,Ni Al,Ni_(3)X,and Fe_(2)Mo).The precipitation-strengthening effect of these precipitates on ultrahigh-strength martensitic steel is discussed from the aspects of heat treatment processes,microstructure of precipitate-strengthened martensite matrix,and mechanical performance.Finally,a perspective on the development of precipitation-strengthened martensitic steel is presented to contribute to the advancement of ultrahigh-strength martensitic steel.This review highlights significant findings,ongoing challenges,and opportunities in the development of ultrahigh-strength martensitic steel.

Multi-decadal Changes of the Impact of El Niño Events on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

Precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has an important effect on the water supply and demand of the downstream population.Involving recent climate change,the multi-decadal variations of the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events on regional climate were observed.In this work,the authors investigated the changes in summer precipitation over TP during 1950-2019.At the multi-decadal scale,the authors found that the inhabiting impact of El Niño events on the TP summer precipitation has strengthened since the late 1970s.The main factor contributing to this phenomenon is the significant amplification in the decadal amplitude of El Niño during 1978-2019 accompanied by a discernible escalation in the frequency of El Niño events.This phenomenon induces anomalous perturbations in sea surface temperatures(SST)within the tropical Indo-Pacific region,consequently weakening the atmospheric vapor transport from the western Pacific to the TP.Additionally,conspicuous anomalies in subsidence motion are observed longitudinally and latitudinally across the TP which significantly contributes to a curtailed supply of atmospheric moisture.These results bear profound implications for the multi-decadal prediction of the TP climate.

Prediction and stratification for the surgical adverse events after minimally invasive esophagectomy:A two-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND Minimally invasive esophagectomy(MIE)is a widely accepted treatment for esophageal cancer,yet it is associated with a significant risk of surgical adverse events(SAEs),which can compromise patient recovery and long-term survival.Accurate preoperative identification of high-risk patients is critical for improving outcomes.AIM To establish and validate a risk prediction and stratification model for the risk of SAEs in patients with MIE.METHODS This retrospective study included 747 patients who underwent MIE at two centers from January 2019 to February 2024.Patients were separated into a train set(n=549)and a validation set(n=198).After screening by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression,multivariate logistic regression analyzed clinical and intraoperative variables to identify independent risk factors for SAEs.A risk stratification model was constructed and validated to predict the probability of SAEs.RESULTS SAEs occurred in 10.2%of patients in train set and 13.6%in the validation set.Patients with SAE had significantly higher complication rate and a longer hospital stay after surgery.The key independent risk factors identified included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,a history of alcohol consumption,low forced expiratory volume in the first second,and low albumin levels.The stratification model has excellent prediction accuracy,with an area under the curve of 0.889 for the training set and an area under the curve of 0.793 for the validation set.CONCLUSION The developed risk stratification model effectively predicts the risk of SAEs in patients undergoing MIE,facilitating targeted preoperative interventions and improving perioperative management.

Improving the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China Using a CycleGAN-based Deep Learning Bias Correction Method

Accurate seasonal precipitation forecasts,especially for extreme events,are crucial to preventing meteorological hazards and their potential impacts on national development,social activity,and security.However,the intensity of summer precipitation is often largely underestimated in many current dynamic models.This study uses a deep learning method called Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks(CycleGAN)to improve the seasonal forecasts for June-JulyAugust precipitation in southeastern China by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS 1.0).The results suggest that the CycleGAN-based model significantly improves the accuracy in predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of summer precipitation compared to the traditional quantile mapping(QM)method.Using the unpaired bias-correction model,we can also obtain advanced forecasts of the frequency,intensity,and duration of extreme precipitation events over the dynamic model predictions.This study expands the potential applications of deep learning models toward improving seasonal precipitation forecasts.

A Machine Learning-Based Observational Constraint Correction Method for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction

Seasonal precipitation has always been a key focus of climate prediction.As a dynamic-statistical combined method,the existing observational constraint correction establishes a regression relationship between the numerical model outputs and historical observations,which can partly predict seasonal precipitation.However,solving a nonlinear problem through linear regression is significantly biased.This study implements a nonlinear optimization of an existing observational constrained correction model using a Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)machine learning algorithm based on output from the Beijing National Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)and station observations to improve the prediction of summer precipitation in China.The model was trained using a rolling approach,and LightGBM outperformed Linear Regression(LR),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Categorical Boosting(CatBoost).Using parameter tuning to optimize the machine learning model and predict future summer precipitation using eight different predictors in BCC-CSM,the mean Anomaly Correlation Coefficient(ACC)score in the 2019–22 summer precipitation predictions was 0.17,and the mean Prediction Score(PS)reached 74.The PS score was improved by 7.87%and 6.63%compared with the BCC-CSM and the linear observational constraint approach,respectively.The observational constraint correction prediction strategy with LightGBM significantly and stably improved the prediction of summer precipitation in China compared to the previous linear observational constraint solution,providing a reference for flood control and drought relief during the flood season(summer)in China.

Atmospheric neutron single event effects for multiple convolutional neural networks based on 28-nm and 16-nm SoC

The single event effects(SEEs)evaluations caused by atmospheric neutrons were conducted on three different convolutional neural network(CNN)models(Yolov3,MNIST,and ResNet50)in the atmospheric neutron irradiation spectrometer(ANIS)at the China Spallation Neutron Source(CSNS).The Yolov3 and MNIST models were implemented on the XILINX28-nm system-on-chip(So C).Meanwhile,the Yolov3 and ResNet50 models were deployed on the XILINX 16-nm Fin FET Ultra Scale+MPSoC.The atmospheric neutron SEEs on the tested CNN systems were comprehensively evaluated from six aspects,including chip type,network architecture,deployment methods,inference time,datasets,and the position of the anchor boxes.The various types of SEE soft errors,SEE cross-sections,and their distribution were analyzed to explore the radiation sensitivities and rules of 28-nm and 16-nm SoC.The current research can provide the technology support of radiation-resistant design of CNN system for developing and applying high-reliability,long-lifespan domestic artificial intelligence chips.

First observation results of Macao Science Satellite-1 on lightning-induced electron precipitation

The Medium-energy Electron Spectrometers(MES)is a space-borne instrument onboard Macao Science Satellite-1(MSS-1)dedicated to monitoring the typical charged particle radiation characteristics in the satellite orbit and the process of their occurrence and development,including short bursts of lightning-induced electron precipitation(LEP).This paper presents the first results of the LEP measurements by the MSS-1.47 LEP events are identified with the routine operation for 3 months since satellite launch,all within the range of 1.5<L<3.0(where L represents the McIlwain L-parameter),and the causative lightning discharges are definitively geo-located for these LEP events.The LEP events occur within<1 s of the causative lightning and consist of 40–300 keV electrons.A preliminary observation result indicates that,with medium-energy electron detectors,MSS-1can present in-situ observations of large regions of enhanced background precipitation and reveal their fine spatiotemporal characteristics and spectral signatures.The collaborative VLF ground-based measurements at the Great Wall Station,Antarctica also have a good correspondence with LEP measurements of MSS-1.The observations also imply that lightning activity has a modulation effect on the energetic electron energy-spatial structure.

A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North China

Recently,heavy precipitation(HP)events have occurred frequently in North China(NC),causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities.However,the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited.Combining year-to-year increment(DY)method and sliding correlations,we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs)in NC during 1982–2022,utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST)in the Indian Ocean(SST_IO),February snow depth over North Asia(SDE_NA),and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE_NC).The SST_IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern.The SDE_NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia.The MSDE_NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies.This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs,with a correlation coefficient(CC)of 0.81(0.65)between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly).The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs_anomaly years(PSSE)is 100%.Moreover,in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022,the PSSE for HPDs_anomaly is as high as 100%,along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14.For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022,the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs_DY(HPDs_anomaly)is 0.93(0.83),together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82)and agreement index(0.89).Specifically,the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015,2016,2017,2021,and 2022,reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

Triglyceride-glucose related indices as predictors for major adverse cardiovascular events and overall mortality in type-2 diabetes mellitus patients

BACKGROUND Recent studies have indicated that triglyceride glucose(TyG)-waist height ratio(WHtR)and TyG-waist circumference(TyG-WC)are effective indicators for evaluating insulin resistance.However,research on the association in TyG-WHtR,TyG-WC,and the risk and prognosis of major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs)in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)cases are limited.AIM To clarify the relation in TyG-WHtR,TyG-WC,and the risk of MACEs and overall mortality in T2DM patients.METHODS Information for this investigation was obtained from Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes(ACCORD)/ACCORD Follow-On(ACCORDION)study database.The Cox regression model was applied to assess the relation among TyG-WHtR,TyG-WC and future MACEs risk and overall mortality in T2DM cases.The RCS analysis was utilized to explore the nonlinear correlation.Subgroup and interaction analyses were conducted to prove the robustness.The receiver operating characteristic curves were applied to analysis the additional predicting value of TyG-WHtR and TyG-WC.RESULTS After full adjustment for confounding variables,the highest baseline TyG-WHtR cohort respectively exhibited a 1.353-fold and 1.420-fold higher risk for MACEs and overall mortality,than the lowest quartile group.Similarly,the highest baseline TyG-WC cohort showed a 1.314-fold and 1.480-fold higher risk for MACEs and overall mortality,respectively.Each 1 SD increase in TyG-WHtR was significantly related to an 11.7%increase in MACEs and a 14.9%enhance in overall mortality.Each 1 SD increase in TyG-WC corresponded to an 11.5%in MACEs and a 16.6%increase in overall mortality.Including these two indexes in conventional models significantly improved the predictive power for MACEs and overall mortality.CONCLUSION TyG-WHtR and TyG-WC were promising predictors of MACEs and overall mortality risk in T2DM cases.

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Liaoning Province

Daily precipitation amounts from 1961 to 2005 in 35 observation stations in Liaoning Province were selected in order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events.By dint of EOF,REOF,mean-square-error and other ways,the changes in different regions of extreme precipitation and distribution were reflected.The analysis showed that,extreme precipitation in Liaoning Province could be divided into three areas,which were western Liaoning mountains and parts of northern areas,eastern Liaoning mountainous,near-coastal areas of Liaohe River Plain.In the relatively large precipitation areas,extreme precipitation threshold was also higher,and vice versa.The lower frequency of extreme precipitation events had a greater contribution to total precipitation;extreme precipitation,total precipitation and total rain days had the greatest changes in the summer,and the least changes in the winter;number of days of extreme precipitation changes in each season were not great;the change of extreme precipitation was not obvious in the long term.

基于改进Event模型的通用航空器碰撞风险分析

随着通用航空的发展,空中交通流量将持续扩大,航空器碰撞风险增加。对Event模型进行改进,将拼接四棱锥碰撞盒代替原长方体碰撞盒,曲面间隔层代替平面间隔层,建立通用航空器碰撞风险模型。最后将塞斯纳172及运5B通用航空器作为实例对所建模型进行验证,结果表明,在两组均采用广义帕累托分布的条件下,改进后Event模型碰撞风险值分别为改进前的31.65%、14.98%,碰撞风险值较改进前大大减少,结果精度更高,能更好地评估交叉航路碰撞风险。

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.

Responses of gross primary productivity to different sizes of precipitation events in a temperate grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China

Changes in the sizes of precipitation events in the context of global climate change may have profound impacts on ecosystem productivity in arid and semiarid grasslands. However, we still have little knowledge about to what extent grassland productivity will respond to an individual precipitation event. In this study, we quantified the duration, the maximum, and the time-integrated amount of the response of daily gross primary productivity (GPP) to an individual precipitation event and their variations with different sizes of precipitation events in a typical temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia, China. Results showed that the duration of GPP-response (τR) and the maximum absolute GPP-response (GPPmax) increased linearly with the sizes of precipitation events (Pes), driving a corresponding increase in time-integrated amount of the GPP-response (GPPtotal) because variations of GPPtotal were largely explained by τR and GPPmax. The relative contributions of these two parameters to GPPtotal were strongly Pes-dependent. The GPPmax contributed more to the variations of GPPtotal when Pes was relatively small (<20 mm), whereas τR was the main driver to the variations of GPPtotal when Pes was relatively large. In addition, a threshold size of at least 5 mm of precipitation was required to induce a GPP-response for the temperate steppe in this study. Our work has important implications for the modeling community to obtain an advanced understanding of productivity-response of grassland ecosystems to altered precipitation regimes.

Complex patterns of precipitation and extreme events during 1951-2011 in Sichuan Basin, Southwestern China

Sichuan Basin is located in southwestern China and affected by a complex water vapor （WV） sources. Here, the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and extreme events are investigated by six indices of World Meteorology Organization Commission, including annual precipitation total （AP）, maximum daily precipitation （Maxld）, intensity of rainfall over 1 mm/d （IR1）, maximum and mean consecutive dry days （Max CDD, Mean CDD） and coefficient of variance. Based on 24 daily precipitation time series from 1951 to 2o11, Mann-Kendall test is employed to quantify the significant level of these indices, from which the classification of precipitation change and its spatial patterns are obtained. Meanwhile, the probability distributions of these indices are identified by L-moment analysis and the Goodness-of-fit test, and the corresponding values are calculated by theoretical model at different return periods. The results reveal that the western basin displays normal drought： less AP and precipitation intensity while longer drought. The southern basin shows normal increase： larger AP and precipitation intensity but shorter CDD. However, in hilly region of the central basin and the transition zone between basin and mountains, precipitation changes abnormally： increasing both drought （one or both of Mean CDD and MaxCDD） and precipitation intensity （one or both of Maxld and trend of AP is. Probability IR1） no matter what the distribution models also demonstrate the complex patterns： a negative correlation between Maxld and Max CDD in the west （R2≥0.61） while a positive correlation in the east （R2≥0.41） at all return periods. These patterns are induced by the changes in WV sources and the layout of local terrain. The increase of WV in summer and decrease in spring leads to the heavier rainfall and longer drought respectively. The large heat island effect of the basin contributes to a lower temperature in transition zones and more precipitation in the downwind area. These results are helpful in reevaluating the risk regionally and making better decisions on water resources management and disaster prevention.

Spatial-temporal Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Northwest China During 1961-2010

Using the daily precipitation data of 118 meteorological stations in Northwest China from January 1, 1961 to December 31,2010, we analyzed extreme precipitation events from prime precipitation data by applying R-language Climate Index （RClimDex）. The spatial-temporal change characteristics in the past 50 years have been examined using the method of trend analysis, Mann-Kendall and the spatial analysis module of Arcgis9.2. The results show that the spatial distribution of the indices for extreme precipitation in Northwest China is greatly influenced by geographic location, atmospheric circulation and topography, and the spatial difference of extreme precipitation events is very evident, while the indices reduce from the southeast to the northwest except Consecutive Dry Days （CDD）. In Xinjiang region, high values appear in Tianshan Mountains and decrease towards the south and north respectively. In the past 50 years, the temporal variation tendency of the indices for extreme precipitation in Northwest China has a great spatial distinction. It shows that the variation tendency is opposite between the east （decrease） and the west （increase）, and CDD has a decreasing tendency while other indices increase. For each region, it is found that the indices for extreme precipitation in Xinjiang and Qinghai Province shows an increasing trend, and it is remarkable in Tianshan Mountains, the north of Xinjiang and the northeast of Qinghai Province. The temporal variation tendency of the indices for extreme precipitation in Ningxia, Shaanxi and Gansu has a large spatial distinction. The stations which have an increasing tend are mainly found in the north of Ningxia, south of Shaanxi and Hexi Corridor of Gansu. However, the south of Ningxia, north of Shaanxi and Longnan of Gansu Province mainly present a decreasing trend. The temporal variation tendency of the indices for extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia is not obvious. Overall, the east part of Northwest China has a dry tendency, while the west part has an opposite trend.

Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China

The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.