Relationship between the Late Spring NAO and Summer Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY OVER SOUTH CHINA IN THE LAST 50 YEARS

This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western Guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000, the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper. Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains （above 25mm/day） in the annual rainfall has increased, while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years. In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s, both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China, especially in the northern China. By moving t test, the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained. The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years. Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country＇s average.

The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s

Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide.Southwest China(SWC)is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation,underdevelopment,and fragile ecosystems.Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations,the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970 s.Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly,but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly,whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events.Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant,about 60%of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation.Furthermore,there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation,with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region.The results carry important implications for policymakers,who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.

Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China

The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.

Estimation of Return Level for Maximum Daily and Hourly Precipitation in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, Using the Extreme Value Theory

The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.

The Variation of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Shandong Province during 1961-2008

We drew on data of daily average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature and precipitation from 78 meteorological stations during 1961-2008 of Shandong Province,analyzed the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation events.The results showed that although extreme cold days decreased by 0.23 d/a on average,after the average temperature steadily passed 10 ℃ in spring,it would still appear 1-2 days of frost,wheat and fruit trees would still suffer frozen injury every year in the central Shandong and the inland of Shandong Peninsula.Although the number of annual extreme hot days has an increasing trend obviously in Shandong and increased by 0.19 days a year.After 2000,aimed at the days of daily maximum temperature ≥ 35 ℃,the mean value and standard deviation of daily maximum temperature in summer decreased comparing with the normal year in West Shandong,and decreased by 1-3 days.In recent 50 years,the extreme precipitation trend increased,but not statistically significant.The number of light rain days has a decreasing trend and decreased by 0.17 days every year,in contrast,the frequency of downpour has an increasing trend.

Projection on precipitation frequency of different intensities and precipitation amount in the Lancang-Mekong River basin in the 21st century

In the Lancang‒Mekong River basin(LMRB),agriculture,dominating the local economy,faces increasing challenges in water supply under climate change.The projection of future precipitation in this basin is essential for understanding the challenges.In this study,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model was applied to project the LMRB precipitation.Comparing with the historical period(1986e2005),we analyzed the changes of both the projected precipitation amount and the frequency of rainless(<0.1 mm d1),light rain(0.1e10 mm d1),moderate rain(10e25 mm d1),heavy rain(25e50 mm d1),rainstorm(50e100 mm d1),and heavy rainstorm(>100 mm d1)for three periods,namely the near-term(2016e2035),mid-term(2046e2065),and long-term(2080e2099).The results indicate that the precipitation amount during the wet season(AprileOctober)is expected to increase in most areas of the basin for the three periods.As for the precipitation during the dry season(NovembereMarch),an increase is projected in most areas for the near-term,while an increase in the lower reach of the basin and a decrease in the upper and middle reach for the mid-term and long-term.The precipitation reduction is expected to be greatest in Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,and Yunnan province of China for the mid-term.The frequency of precipitation in different intensities has prominent regional and temporal differences.During the wet season,the days of rainless and light rain are expected to decrease in the middle reach,whereas the days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm increase.This feature is especially strong in southern Thailand,southern Laos and Cambodia in the near-term and in Laos and Thailand for the mid-term and long-term.During the dry season,there are projected increasing rainless days and decreasing days of precipitation for the other intensities in the middle reach,and opposite in the rest area of the basin.These projected precipitation changes have potential various impact in different parts of the basin.The middle reach would likely face increasing flood risks because of more days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm,as well as more precipitation.Yunnan,Myanmar,Thailand and Laos would probably be the center of drought threatens during the dry season due to the increment of rainless days and the precipitation reduction.Besides,the seawater intrusion during the dry season in the near-term and mid-term would be more serious as a result of the precipitation decrease in southern Vietnam.

Decadal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Days over Northwest China from 1963 to 2012

Daily precipitation data from 153 meteorological stations over Northwest China during summer from 1963 to 2012 were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme summer precipitation frequency.The results show that the extreme precipitation frequency was regional dependent.Southern Gansu,northern Qinghai,and southern Shaanxi provinces exhibited a high extreme precipitation frequency and were prone to abrupt changes in the frequency.Northwest China was further divided into three sub-regions（northern,central,and southern） based on cluster analysis of the 50-yr extreme precipitation frequency series for each meteorological station.The extreme precipitation frequency changes were manifested in the northern region during the late 1970 s and in the central region from the end of the 1980 s to the 1990 s.The southern region fluctuated on a timescale of quasi-10 yr.This study also explored the mechanism of changes in extreme precipitation frequency.The results demonstrate that stratification stability,atmospheric water vapor content,and upward motion all affected the changes in extreme precipitation frequency.

Precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland during 1960–2014

Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland（MCM） during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows：（1） During the last four decades of the 20^（th） century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^（st） century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.（2） The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.（3） On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.（4） The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.

Intra-Annual Variability of Diurnal Cycle Precipitation over China from 1960–2000

Characteristics of diurnal cycle precipitation over China are investigated using twice-daily observations by the China Meteorological Administration during 1960–2000. Characteristics investigated include nighttime/daytime precipitation amount(PA), intensity, and frequency. Geographically, the region is separated into western and eastern China by the 110°E longitude. Our analysis shows that there generally is more night-time than daytime precipitation in western China, particularly in the Sichuan Basin. Over eastern China, the opposite holds true, particularly along the southeast coast. Regional average monthly daytime and night-time precipitation peaks in the same month for both western and eastern China. Over western China, monthly night-time precipitation is always greater than that during daytime, but the night-time precipitation frequency(PF) is only greater in non-summer(June–August) months. Over eastern China, daytime precipitation is greater than that in the night-time during the warm season(May–August) in both amount and frequency. The night-day difference(night-time minus daytime) in PA over western China is mainly influenced by precipitation intensity, while over eastern China the night-day difference in rainfall amount is mostly driven by PF.

Study on the Characteristics of Changes in Air Temperature and Precipitation in Shenyang in Recent 50 Years

Based on the data of monthly average air temperature,extreme maximum,minimum air temperature and precipitation of Shenyang from 1960 to 2009,the climate changes and its characteristics in Shenyang in recent 50 years were comprehensively analyzed and studied.The results showed that the increasing trend of air temperature in recent 50 years was obvious.With the rising of the air temperature,the precipitation in Shenyang City showed a decreasing trend.

Century-long variability and trends in daily precipitation characteristics at three Finnish stations

Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south(Kaisaniemi),centre(Kajaani) and north(Sodankyl€a). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation(0 mm < daily precipitation long-term 50 th percentile of daily precipitation more than 0 mm) significantly( p < 0.05) decreased over time,with the highest rate in northern Finland. These decreasing trends might be the result of significant increases in frequency of days with very light precipitation at all the stations, with the highest and lowest rates in northern and southern Finland, respectively. Ratio of annual total precipitation to number of precipitation days also declined in Finland over 1908e2008, with a decreasing north to south gradient. However, annual duration indices of daily precipitation revealed no statistically significant trends at any station. Daily precipitation characteristics showed significant relationships with various well-known atmospheric circulation patterns(ACPs). In particular, the East Atlantic/West Russia(EA/WR)pattern in summer was the most influential ACP negatively associated with different daily precipitation intensity, frequency and duration indices at all three stations studied.

Modeling Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Establishing Climate Change Existence in Uyo-Nigeria Using Non-Stationary Approach

This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.

Decadal Variations of Extreme Tropical Cyclones Influencing China during 1949-2009

Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.

Obtaining More Information about Precipitation Biases over East Asia from Hourly-Scale Evaluation of Model Simulation

The hourly summer precipitation simulations over East Asia by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM)high-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)runs(T255,~50 km)were evaluated based on the merged hourly precipitation product released by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA).The results show that the simulation biases are closely related to the topography,with the precipitation amount and frequency overestimated(underestimated),and duration of precipitation events being longer(shorter),over the western high-altitude(eastern plain)regions of China.Six regions with large discrepancies were further analyzed.In terms of the frequency-intensity structure,the overestimation of precipitation frequency is mainly due to the excessive simulated weak precipitation over the four regions with positive biases:the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau(STP),the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau(NETP),the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau(EPTP),and the mountainous area of North China(NCM);while the underestimation of frequency is mainly due to the insufficient precipitation with moderate intensity over the two regions with negative biases:lower reaches of the Yangtze River(LYR)and the South China coast(SCC).Based on the duration-diurnal structure analysis,two kinds of precipitation events with different natures can be distinguished.The long-duration night to early morning precipitation events have a significant contribution to the precipitation amount biases for all the six key regions,and this kind of precipitation mainly affects the precipitation diurnal variation over the mountainous areas or steep terrain.Although the short-duration afternoon precipitation events only have a greater contribution to the precipitation amount biases over the SCC region,this kind of precipitation affects the diurnal variation over the NCM region and the two key regions with negative biases.Such a detailed hourly-scale evaluation is helpful for enriching the understanding of simulation biases and to further improve model performance.

Significant impacts of the TRMM satellite orbit boost on climatological records of tropical precipitation

With the unprecedented spaceborne precipitation radar(PR),the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite has collected high-quality precipitation measurements for over ten years.The TRMM/PR data are nowadays extensively exploited in numerous meteorological and hydrological fields.Yet an artificial orbit boost of the TRMM satellite in August 2001 modulated the observation parameters,which inevitably affects climatological applications of the PR data and needs to be clarified.This study investigates the orbit boost effects of the TRMM satellite on the PR-derived precipitation characteristics.Both the potential impacts on precipitation frequency(PF) and precipitation intensity(PI) are carefully analyzed.The results show that the total PF decreases by 8.3% and PI increases by 4.0% over the tropics after the orbit boost.Such changes significantly exceed the natural variabilities and imply the strong effects of orbit boost on precipitation characteristics.The impacts on stratiform precipitation and convective precipitation are inconsistent,which is attributed to their distinct precipitation features.Further analysis reveal that the increased PI of stratiform precipitation is mainly due to the decreased frequencies of light precipitation,while the semi-constant PI of convective precipitation is caused by the concurrently decreased frequencies of light and heavy precipitation.A modification is applied to the post-boost PR precipitation data to retrieve the actual trends of tropical precipitation characteristics.It is found that the PI of total-precipitation approximately keeps invariable from 1998 to 2005.The total PF has no obvious trend over tropical oceans but decreases considerably over tropical lands.

Forced Decadal Changes in Summer Precipitation Characteristics over China:The Roles of Greenhouse Gases and Anthropogenic Aerosols

We investigated the decadal changes in the different types of summer mean precipitation over China across the mid-1990 s based on observational datasets.The spatial variations in the observed decadal changes were estimated by comparing the present day(PD)time period of 1994–2011 with an earlier period of 1964–1981.The summer total precipitation increased in southern China and decreased in northern China from the early period to the PD.The increases of precipitation in southern China were due to increases in the frequency of heavy and moderate rainfall,whereas the decreases over northern China were mainly due to decreases in the frequency of moderate and light rainfall.Based on a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled with a multilevel mixed-layer ocean model,we found that the increase of precipitation frequency forced by greenhouse gases is the main reason of increasing precipitation over southern and northeastern China,while the decrease of frequency caused by anthropogenic aerosol(AA)induces the decreasing precipitation over northern China.The water vapor flux convergence and water vapor flux strengthen in southern China and northeastern China by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.This distribution is also conducive to precipitation in most of southern China and northeastern China.Under the control of weakened southwesterly winds and 850-h Pa divergence,precipitation decreases over northern and southwestern China by AA.

广东省2024年4月气候概况及极端性分析

2024年4月,广东省平均气温创历史4月新高,4月降水为有气象记录以来最多,但空间分布不均,呈北多南少。月内出现2次冷空气过程,同时先后出现了1981年以来最强的3轮4月份强降水过程,具有强对流明显、暴雨区重叠、累积雨量大、极端性显著的特点。

基于地区线性矩法的四川省24 h极值降雨频率分析

为探究四川省24 h极值降雨在不同重现期不同频率下的时空分布特征,采用地区线性矩法划分四川省水文气象一致区,确定最优拟合线型,并验证地区线性矩法在站点稀疏地区的适用性,随后估计四川省24 h不同重现期降雨频率值,分析其时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为40个水文气象一致区,经线型拟合优度检验,主要线型为GLO、GEV和GNO,其中川西高原地区的最优线型大多为GLO,盆地区域的最优线型大多为GEV。(2)地区线性矩法在站点相对稀疏的川西高原地区具有良好的适用性。(3)四川省内不同地区24 h极值降雨空间分布十分不均,同一重现期下不同地区降雨频率估计值的最大值可达最小值的10倍。