Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy ...Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis...Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.展开更多
According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yu...According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino's quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the p...85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.展开更多
Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of c...Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric(SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan's rain season.Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan.The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called "West Wind Drift" in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru(cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.展开更多
Based on an analysis of the circulation in May associated with the interannual variation of the onset of Yunnan’s rainy season, this study examined the rela-tionship between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the onset timi...Based on an analysis of the circulation in May associated with the interannual variation of the onset of Yunnan’s rainy season, this study examined the rela-tionship between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the onset timing of the rainy sea-son by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observational precipitation data for 1961-2010. The results indicated that, on an interannual time scale, intense Asian summer monsoon and an active EU-pattern wave train circulation in its positive phase, associated with a cold cyclonic cell covering the western part of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ), jointly contributed to the onset of the rainy season in May. Otherwise, the onset might be suppressed. The cold cyclonic cell over East Asia likely led to the southward shift and enhancement of EASWJ as well as its secondary circulation around the jet entrance, which could provide a favorable dynamic and thermal condition for rainfalls in Yunnan as was revealed in previous studies on 10 - 30-day time scale. Further examination showed that the preceding wintertime AO played a significant role in the timing of the onset of the rainy season before the mid-1980s’ by mostly modulating the wave-train-like circulation over East Asia in May. During that time period, when the AO index of the previous winter was positive (negative), Yunnan’s rainy season tended to begin earlier (later) than normal. Correspond-ingly, the precipitation in May was also closely linked to wintertime AO.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation rule of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data from three observatories (Liuzhi,...[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation rule of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data from three observatories (Liuzhi, Panxian and Shuicheng) of Liupanshui City from May to September during 1960-2009, the interannual, interdecadal variation and mutation characteristics of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years were analyzed by using the linear tendency estimation, sliding T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. [Result] The rainfall in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years presented the decline trend, and the linear tendency rate was -15.4 mm/10 a. The precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics. It was the obvious rainless period in the metaphase of 1960s, and the precipitation was comparatively more in late 1960s. It was the relatively rainless period in the whole 1970s. From late 1970s to late 1980s, the precipitation in the rainy season entered into the pluvial period, and it was the period when the precipitation was the most in recent 50 years. The precipitation was relatively less from late 1980s to metaphase of 1990s. It was the pluvial period in the middle and late periods of 1990s, and it was the rainless period when entered into the 21st century. The sliding T-test showed that the precipitation mutation point in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years was in 2002. The wavelet analysis showed that the precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the significant multiple time scale characteristic. In the interdecadal scale, the precipitation had the significant 16-year periodic oscillation which stably existed in 50 years. In the interannual scale, the precipitation had the quasi-8-year periodic oscillation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the accurate forecast of drought and flood disasters, disaster prevention and reduction in the city.展开更多
The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results in...The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.展开更多
The quantitative reconstruction of the length of the rainy season and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is crucial for revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon, as well ...The quantitative reconstruction of the length of the rainy season and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is crucial for revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon, as well as its ecological and environmental effects. Accurately determining the start and end times of the rainy season on the Plateau remains challenging.This study determined the start and end times of the rainy season in different locations on the Plateau by identifying precipitation inflection points. We calculated the duration and precipitation amount of the rainy season and established a transfer function between the modern pollen assemblages and them. Then, we reconstructed the rainy season variations in Kusai Lake(northern TP) and Jiang Co(central TP) during the past two millennia. The results showed that, the rainy season precipitation in Kusai Lake recorded five periods of high precipitation: AD 580–680, 1000–1100, 1200–1450, 1550–1780, and 1920–present, corresponding to the stages with long rainy season. The rainy season precipitation sequence in Jiang Co recorded four periods of high precipitation: AD 80–500, 800–950, 1250–1450, and 1780–present, which is consistent with the long rainy season before AD 1000 but unclear afterward. Spatially, rainy season precipitation on the Plateau exhibited four patterns: “wet in both north and south” may be related to abnormally strong summer monsoons;“dry in both north and south” likely associated with weak Westerly wind and weak summer monsoon;“wet in the south and dry in the north” linked to strong summer monsoon and weak Westerly wind;and “dry in the south and wet in the north” connected to weak summer monsoon and strong Westerly wind. This study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the rainy season onset and end, duration, and precipitation amount on the Plateau over the past two millennia. It provides natural background support for further understanding the coupling between Westerly wind and Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Base...In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Based on the international general definition method of extreme precipitation threshold: percentile method (95%), the extreme precipitation thresholds in flood season before and after South China are defined respectively. The total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season before and after 1979-2014 are calculated in this paper. The change trend of the two indicators is basically the same, and the two indicators have obvious interannual variation and an upward trend. According to the results of wavelet analysis of extreme precipitation frequency, the frequency of extreme precipitation in the first flood season mainly has a period of 3 - 5 years, while the frequency of extreme precipitation in the later flood season has a significant period of 6 - 8 years. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation before and after the flood season shows that the extreme precipitation in the former flood season is mainly distributed in the central part of Guangdong, the northeast of Guangxi and the western part of Fujian, and the extreme precipitation in the latter flood season mainly occurs in the southern coastal area. The results show that there are different tropical SST regions affecting the extreme precipitation in South China. The former flood season is mainly the tropical Indian Ocean warm SST, and the latter flood season is mainly the tropical Pacific warm SST. The tropical Indian Ocean SST stimulates the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which brings the southwest warm and humid air flow into South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the first flood season of South China;the tropical Pacific SST stimulates the cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which reduces the water vapor outflow caused by the seasonal northward jump of the subtropical high in South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the later flood season of South China.展开更多
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to inves...The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42030605)National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)。
文摘Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.
基金Knowledge Innovation Program of CAS, No.KZCX3-SW-321-3Key Project of the Ministry of Education of China, No.01JAZJD770008
文摘According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino's quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.
基金973 Program(2015CB453202)Specific Project on Public Fields(GYHY201406024)+2 种基金Key National Natural Science Foundation of China(41330425)Third-level Talent Training Project of the Fourth"333 project"in Jiangsu ProvincePriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)
文摘85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41075072,41065004)National Natural Science Foundation of China-Yunnan Province Joint Foundation(U0833602)+2 种基金Specialized Project for Forecasters in Yunnan Province(YB201202)Project for Fourth Program of Undergraduates in Yunnan Province(ynuy201154)Integration and Demonstration of Techniques for Mitigating and Controlling Eruptive Disasters in Southwest China,a project of National Science and Technology Support for the 12th Five-Year Economic Development(2012BAD20B06)
文摘Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric(SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan's rain season.Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan.The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called "West Wind Drift" in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru(cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.
文摘Based on an analysis of the circulation in May associated with the interannual variation of the onset of Yunnan’s rainy season, this study examined the rela-tionship between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the onset timing of the rainy sea-son by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observational precipitation data for 1961-2010. The results indicated that, on an interannual time scale, intense Asian summer monsoon and an active EU-pattern wave train circulation in its positive phase, associated with a cold cyclonic cell covering the western part of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ), jointly contributed to the onset of the rainy season in May. Otherwise, the onset might be suppressed. The cold cyclonic cell over East Asia likely led to the southward shift and enhancement of EASWJ as well as its secondary circulation around the jet entrance, which could provide a favorable dynamic and thermal condition for rainfalls in Yunnan as was revealed in previous studies on 10 - 30-day time scale. Further examination showed that the preceding wintertime AO played a significant role in the timing of the onset of the rainy season before the mid-1980s’ by mostly modulating the wave-train-like circulation over East Asia in May. During that time period, when the AO index of the previous winter was positive (negative), Yunnan’s rainy season tended to begin earlier (later) than normal. Correspond-ingly, the precipitation in May was also closely linked to wintertime AO.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation rule of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data from three observatories (Liuzhi, Panxian and Shuicheng) of Liupanshui City from May to September during 1960-2009, the interannual, interdecadal variation and mutation characteristics of precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years were analyzed by using the linear tendency estimation, sliding T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis method. [Result] The rainfall in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years presented the decline trend, and the linear tendency rate was -15.4 mm/10 a. The precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics. It was the obvious rainless period in the metaphase of 1960s, and the precipitation was comparatively more in late 1960s. It was the relatively rainless period in the whole 1970s. From late 1970s to late 1980s, the precipitation in the rainy season entered into the pluvial period, and it was the period when the precipitation was the most in recent 50 years. The precipitation was relatively less from late 1980s to metaphase of 1990s. It was the pluvial period in the middle and late periods of 1990s, and it was the rainless period when entered into the 21st century. The sliding T-test showed that the precipitation mutation point in the rainy season in Liupanshui City in recent 50 years was in 2002. The wavelet analysis showed that the precipitation in the rainy season in Liupanshui City had the significant multiple time scale characteristic. In the interdecadal scale, the precipitation had the significant 16-year periodic oscillation which stably existed in 50 years. In the interannual scale, the precipitation had the quasi-8-year periodic oscillation. [Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the accurate forecast of drought and flood disasters, disaster prevention and reduction in the city.
基金Mechanisms for important climatic catastrophes in China and theoretic study of the predic-tion" a project first set off in the "Plan for developing key national fundamental research" Project 97D033Q of Application Fund by the Science and Technology F
文摘The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41830322,42202217&T2192954)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA2007010103)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No 2021M703195)。
文摘The quantitative reconstruction of the length of the rainy season and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is crucial for revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of the Westerlies and Asian summer monsoon, as well as its ecological and environmental effects. Accurately determining the start and end times of the rainy season on the Plateau remains challenging.This study determined the start and end times of the rainy season in different locations on the Plateau by identifying precipitation inflection points. We calculated the duration and precipitation amount of the rainy season and established a transfer function between the modern pollen assemblages and them. Then, we reconstructed the rainy season variations in Kusai Lake(northern TP) and Jiang Co(central TP) during the past two millennia. The results showed that, the rainy season precipitation in Kusai Lake recorded five periods of high precipitation: AD 580–680, 1000–1100, 1200–1450, 1550–1780, and 1920–present, corresponding to the stages with long rainy season. The rainy season precipitation sequence in Jiang Co recorded four periods of high precipitation: AD 80–500, 800–950, 1250–1450, and 1780–present, which is consistent with the long rainy season before AD 1000 but unclear afterward. Spatially, rainy season precipitation on the Plateau exhibited four patterns: “wet in both north and south” may be related to abnormally strong summer monsoons;“dry in both north and south” likely associated with weak Westerly wind and weak summer monsoon;“wet in the south and dry in the north” linked to strong summer monsoon and weak Westerly wind;and “dry in the south and wet in the north” connected to weak summer monsoon and strong Westerly wind. This study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the rainy season onset and end, duration, and precipitation amount on the Plateau over the past two millennia. It provides natural background support for further understanding the coupling between Westerly wind and Asian summer monsoon.
文摘In the study, the summer extreme precipitation in South China is divided into early rainy season (MJ) and late rainy season (JA). The percentile method (95%) is used to define the extreme precipitation threshold. Based on the international general definition method of extreme precipitation threshold: percentile method (95%), the extreme precipitation thresholds in flood season before and after South China are defined respectively. The total amount and frequency of extreme precipitation in flood season before and after 1979-2014 are calculated in this paper. The change trend of the two indicators is basically the same, and the two indicators have obvious interannual variation and an upward trend. According to the results of wavelet analysis of extreme precipitation frequency, the frequency of extreme precipitation in the first flood season mainly has a period of 3 - 5 years, while the frequency of extreme precipitation in the later flood season has a significant period of 6 - 8 years. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation before and after the flood season shows that the extreme precipitation in the former flood season is mainly distributed in the central part of Guangdong, the northeast of Guangxi and the western part of Fujian, and the extreme precipitation in the latter flood season mainly occurs in the southern coastal area. The results show that there are different tropical SST regions affecting the extreme precipitation in South China. The former flood season is mainly the tropical Indian Ocean warm SST, and the latter flood season is mainly the tropical Pacific warm SST. The tropical Indian Ocean SST stimulates the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which brings the southwest warm and humid air flow into South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the first flood season of South China;the tropical Pacific SST stimulates the cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea, which reduces the water vapor outflow caused by the seasonal northward jump of the subtropical high in South China, resulting in the increase of extreme precipitation in the later flood season of South China.
基金Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2009CB421406)Scientific Research Fund of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (2012X035)
文摘The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in a regional climate model configuration to simulate past precipitation climate of China during the rainy season (May-September) of 1981-2000, and to investigate potential future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) changes in precipitation over China relative to the reference period 1981-2000. WRF is run with initial conditions from a coupled general circulation model, i.e., the high-resolution version of MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). WRF reproduces the observed distribution of rainy season precipitation in 1981-2000 and its interannual variations better than MIROC. MIROC projects increases in rainy season precipitation over most parts of China and decreases of more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan and central Tibet by the mid-21st century. WRF projects decreases in rainfall over southern Tibetan Plateau, Southwest China, and northwestern part of Northeast China, and increases in rainfall by more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 2041-2060. MIROC projects further increases in rainfall over most of China by the end of the 21st century, although simulated rainfall decreases by more than 25 mm over parts of Taiwan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and central Tibet. WRF projects increased rainfall of more than 100 mm along the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and decreased rainfall over Southwest China, and southern Tibetan Plateau by the end of the 21st century.