Changes in the Proportion of Precipitation Occurring as Rain in Northern Canada during Spring–Summer from 1979–2015

Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio（RPR） in northern Canada during the spring–summer season（March–July）from 1979–2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring–summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring–summer mean temperature [0.4℃–1℃（10 yr）^（-1）] and the RPR [2%–6%（10 yr）^（-1）] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979–2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.

Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.

Variable and Robust East Asian Monsoon Rainfall Response to El Nio over the Past 60 Years(1957–2016)

Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Nio decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer（June–July-August） 2016 does not show significant anomalies, suggesting that — over East Asia（EA） — seasonal mean anomalies have limited value in representing hydrological hazards. Scrutinizing season-evolving precipitation anomalies associated with 16 El Nio episodes during 1957–2016 reveals that, over EA, the spatiotemporal patterns among the four categories of El Nio events are quite variable, due to a large range of variability in the intensity and evolution of El Nio events and remarkable subseasonal migration of the rainfall anomalies. The only robust seasonal signal is the dry anomalies over central North China during the El Nio developing summer. Distinguishing strong and weak El Nio impacts is important. Only strong El Nio events can persistently enhance EA subtropical frontal precipitation from the peak season of El Nio to the ensuing summer, by stimulating intense interaction between the anomalous western Pacific anticyclone（WPAC） and underlying dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, thereby maintaining the WPAC and leading to a prolonged El Nio impact on EA. A weak El Nio may also enhance the post-El Nio summer rainfall over EA, but through a different physical process： the WPAC re-emerges as a forced response to the rapid cooling in the eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the skillful prediction of rainfall over continental EA requires the accurate prediction of not only the strength and evolution of El Nio, but also the subseasonal migration of EA rainfall anomalies.

Analysis of Precipitation Resource and Weather Modification Potential in Anyang

Using ground water vapor pressure and precipitation data at four times of one day during 1985- 2014 in each county（ city） of Anyang,precipitable water at each station was calculated,and temporal-spatial distribution of atmospheric maximum precipitable water and its change trend over the years in the city were analyzed. Results showed that atmospheric maximum precipitable water in Anyang City had the characteristics of summer far more than winter,autumn slightly higher than spring,west and south more,and east and north less,and presented the increasing trend year by year. We further analyzed the characteristic of monthly rainfall enhancement potential in each county,and mean in whole year was 80%. In spring and winter,rainfall enhancement potential in the west was bigger than east,while rainfall enhancement potential in the east was bigger than west in summer and autumn. The research provides reference basis for rationally carrying out artificial rainfall work,which could effectively ease uneven temporal-spatial distribution problem of water resource in Anyang City.

Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Beijing During 21-22 July2012 Based on High Resolution Model Analyses and Forecasts

The heaviest rainfall over 61 yr hit Beijing during 21-22 July 2012.Characterized by great rainfall amount and intensity,wide range,and high impact,this record-breaking heavy rainfall caused dozens of deaths and extensive damage.Despite favorable synoptic conditions,operational forecasts underestimated the precipitation amount and were late at predicting the rainfall start time.To gain a better understanding of the performance of mesoscale models,verification of high-resolution forecasts and analyses from the WRFbased BJ-RUCv2.0 model with a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km is carried out.The results show that water vapor is very rich and a quasi-linear precipitation system produces a rather concentrated rain area.Moreover,model forecasts are first verified statistically using equitable threat score and BIAS score.The BJ-RUCv2.0forecasts under-predict the rainfall with southwestward displacement error and time delay of the extreme precipitation.Further quantitative analysis based on the contiguous rain area method indicates that major errors for total precipitation（〉 5 mm h^（-1）） are due to inaccurate precipitation location and pattern,while forecast errors for heavy rainfall（〉 20 mm h^（-1）） mainly come from precipitation intensity.Finally,the possible causes for the poor model performance are discussed through diagnosing large-scale circulation and physical parameters（water vapor flux and instability conditions） of the BJ-RUCv2.0 model output.

Fundamental Characteristics of Tropical Rain Cell Structures as Measured by TRMM PR

Rain cells are the most elementary unit of precipitation system in nature.In this study,fundamental geometric and physical characteristics of rain cells over tropical land and ocean areas are investigated by using 15-yr measurements of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Precipitation Radar(PR).The rain cells are identified with a minimum bounding rectangle(MBR)method.The results indicate that about 50%of rain cells occur at length of about 20 km and width of 15 km.The proportion of rain cells with length>200 km and width>100 km is less than1%.There is a a log-linear relationship between the mean length and width of rain cells.Usually,for the same horizontal geometric parameters,rain cells tend to be square horizontally and lanky vertically over land,while vertically squatty over ocean.The rainfall intensity of rain cells varies from 0.4 to 10 mm h-1 over land to 0.4–8 mm h-1 over ocean.Statistical results indicate that the occurrence frequency of rain cells decreases as the areal fraction of convective precipitation in rain cells increases,while such frequency remains almost invariant when the areal fraction of stratiform precipitation varies from 10%to 80%.The relationship between physical and geometric parameters of rain cells shows that the mean rain rate of rain cells is more frequently associated with the increase of their area,with the increasing rate over land greater than that over ocean.The results also illustrate that heavy convective rain rate prefers to occur in larger rain cells over land while heavy stratiform rain rate tends to appear in larger rain cells over ocean.For the same size of rain cells,the areal fraction and the contribution of convective precipitation are about10%–15%higher over land than over ocean.