Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the M_s 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14：00 o＇clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of -10^4 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi＇an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.

Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China,and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Precursory Anomalies of the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake and Their Mechanical Analysis

In order to study the spatiotemporal evolution of the precursory anomalies 10 years before the Wenchuan M_S8. 0 earthquake in 2008, the epicentral distance of the precursory anomalies is calculated by using the geometric center of the rupture region and the elliptical centerline of the aftershock region. The result shows, precursor anomalies gradually increased about 2 years before the Wenchuan earthquake. The ratio of abnormal items is greater than 25% in the near source area (about twice the source scale) and 17%-24% in the remote area (about 3-5 times the source scale). There are three different stages of spatiotemporal evolution of precursory anomalies. During the α stage (including α_1 and α_2,between 700 to 3000 days before the main earthquake),the anomalies are mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest area of the Wenchuan aftershocks area. It is shown that the precursors of the far source region and the near source area have the characteristics of outward expansion. During the β stage (between 300 to 700 days before the main earthquake), the anomalies are distributed in the southwest and northern region of the aftershock region, showing a large range of anomalies. During the γ stage (including γ_1 and γ_2, 300 days before the main earthquake),the range of anomaly distribution is wide,and the anomalies are distributed in the southwest and northeast of the aftershock area. The anomalies converged to epicenter (γ_1) in the far source region and expand outwards (γ_2) in the near source region. Results of the experimental study and mechanical analysis of earthquake preparation process indicate that the three-stage characteristics of precursory anomalies in the process of earthquake preparation may be controlled by the seismogenic body,which is a form of expression in the process of earthquake preparation and a universal featureduring the earthquake preparation process,which has a certain guiding role in earthquake prediction.

The Contrast Study of Precursor Anomalies before the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake

The contrast research results show that the number of items and stations with imminent, short and medium term precursor anomalies for the Wenchuan M_S 8. 0 earthquake is less than that of the Menglian earthquake. The number of anomalies and stations associated with the Wenchuan earthquake increased in the early stage of the short-term range,as opposed to the later period for the Menglian and Lijiang earthquakes. Most of the medium term anomalies occurred two to three years before the Wenchuan earthquake,when the number of anomaly stations and items was eleven,and a great change appeared in the observation values in about half of the stations ( items ) . However,for the Menglian earthquake,medium term anomalies happened one to two years before the earthquake, the number of abnormal stations and items reached 20,and a sharp change appeared in the observation values six months to one year before the earthquake in about 30 percent of the stations or items. In the epicenter and the nearby area,the macroscopic abnormalities started 3 years before the Wenchuan earthquake and lasted intermittently until 1 month before the earthquake. Within 2 percent of the total area of the province,the macroscopic abnormalities accounted for 30 to 50 percent of the total number of anomalies of the Province. For the Xingtai,Tangshan,Haicheng,Songpan earthquakes,the macroscopic anomalies started two to three months before,or on the very day of the earthquakes. The common feature of the precursors between the Wenchuan and other strong earthquakes is the appearance of tremendous changes in a certain number of observation values of anomalies in the mid and short terms before all these earthquakes.

Detection of ULF electromagnetic emissions as a precursor to two earthquakes in China

The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.

Investigation of ionospheric TEC changes related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake based on statistic analysis and signal detection

Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility ofTEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.

Temporal variation of gravity field before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake

Absolute and relative gravity data during 1998 to 2008 were used to study gravity field and temporal variation in the North-South seismic-belt region, and their correlation with seismic activities before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The temporal variation of gravity field shows that the portentous information of the gravity field reflects the development and occurrence of earthquake more clearly. The variations of gravity field are inhomogeneous in the space-time distribution, and are associated with the development and occurrence of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, also closely connected with active fault tectonics.

Advantages of GNSS in Monitoring Crustal Deformation for Detection of Precursors to Strong Earthquakes

Earthquake predictions inChinahave had rare successes but suffered more tragic setbacks since the Xintai earthquake in 1966. They have developed with twists and turns under the influence of the viewpoint that earthquakes are unpredictable etc. Though the Wenchuan earthquake of M8.0 in2008 inChina and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake of M9.0 inJapan were failed to predict, the GPS observations before and after these 2 events have shown that there were precursors to these events and large earthquakes are predictable. Features of different observation techniques, data processing methods are compared and some recent studies on precursory crustal deformations are summarized, so various advantages of GPS technique in monitoring crustal deformation are emphasized. The facts show that anomalies or precursors detected from GPS observations before the great Wenchuan earthquake have been the most remarkable results of explorations on crustal movements and earthquake precursors in China. GPS is in deed an excellent observation technique for earthquake prediction.

Calculation of the parameters of georesistivi－ty anisotropy and case history of earthquake precursors

This paper has discussed the effective resistivity ellipse and the paradoxical phenomenon of anisotropy. Two cases have been discussed, namely: there are three measuring lines at arbitrary angles with one another and there are two mutually perpendicular measuring lines and an additional measurement of the transversal effective resistivity. For these cases, the paper has given the methods for quantitatively calculating the parameters of georesistivity anisotropy. The formulae given include those for calculating the azimuth (of the principal axis of minimum resistivity ρ 1, the average resistivity ( ρ 1ρ 3) 1/2 , (ρ 2ρ 3) 1/2 , and the anisotropy coefficient λ=(ρ 2/ρ 1 ) 1/2 . As a case history, the data observed by the Datong geoelectricity station have been processed with reference to the results of in situ resistivity measurement in media subjected to shear. The results of analysis have led to the following understandings. Before and after the Datong M S6.1 earthquake on October 19, 1989, the abnormal rise of NE trending georesistivity and abnormal fall of NW trending georesistivity observed at the Datong and Yangyuan stations were caused by the pure shear acting on the medium. The major principal compression was in NE direction, which made an acute angle with the strike of the seismic fault plane, and thus there was a greater shear stress but very small normal stress so that the fault was likely to slide but the earthquake was only of moderate magnitude. The states of stress in medium were the same before and after earthquake and therefore the georesistivity precursor was of the same sign as that of co seismic variations.

Comprehensive precursor anomaly research based on earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum

With the aim to the quantification of anomaly identification and extraction for observed or analyzed records, we present two statistical methods of earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum （ECRS） and sliding mean relevancy （SMR）. With ECRS method, we can obtain the abnormal confidence attribute of data in different value ranges. Based on the relevancy spectrum in different studied time-intervals, we convert the original time sequence into relevancy time sequence, and can obtain the SMR time series by using the multi-point cumulative sliding mean method. Then we can identify the seismic precursor anomaly. We test this method by taking the time sequence of r/-value in the northern Tianshan region as original data. The result shows that when the studied time-interval is 18 months, the precursor anomaly can be identified bet- ter from sliding mean relevancy. The anomaly corresponding rate is 83 percent, the earthquake corresponding rate is 86 per- cent, and the anomaly is characteristic of the middle term. To try the research on multi-parameter comprehensive application, we take the Kalpin tectonic block in Xinjiang as our studied region, and analyze the spatial and temporal abnormal characters of multi-parameter sliding extreme-value relevancy （MSER） before mid-strong earthquakes in the Kalpin block. The result indicates that ECRS and SMR sequence in different time-intervals can not only be used to identify the precursor anomaly of single-item data, but also offer the data of quantitative single-item anomaly for comprehensive earthquake analysis and prediction.

Anomaly detection of earthquake precursor data using long short-term memory networks

Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.

Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes

Despite extensive investigations,no precursor patterns for reliably predicting major earthquakes have thus far been identified.Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are highly heterogeneous and low brittle.The progressive cracking of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon:a landmark earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes(pre-shocks)always arise prior to another landmark earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period.Applying a mechanical model,magnitude constraint conditions,and case study data of 62 worldwide seismic zones,we show that two adjacent landmark earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion point and peak-stress point(rupture)of a locked segment;thus,the former is an identified precursor for the latter.Such a precursor seismicity pattern before the locked-segment rupture has definite physical meanings,and it is universal regardless of the focal depth.Because the evolution of landmark earthquakes follows a deterministic rule described by the model,they are predictable.The results of this study lay a firm physical foundation for reliably predicting the occurrence of future landmark earthquakes in a seismic zone and can greatly improve our understanding of earthquake generation mechanism.

Study on a gravity precursor mode of the M_S=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

To study the seismogeny process or the precursory behavior of the 1976 MS=7.0 Lijiang earthquake, we analyze the repeat gravity data with high precision from the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experiment Area (WYEPEA) and the related results of geology and geophysics survey in this paper. Considering the gross errors caused by observation data and model difference, we have firstly inverted the slip distribution of the main active faults with time based on the robust Bayesian least squares estimation and multi-fault dislocation model. The re-sults show that the slip changes of the faults with time from 1990 to 1997 obviously reflect the preparation process of the Lijiang earthquake. The images of main precursor mode have the characteristic of main shock-after shock type, which is agreement to the model of coupling movement between crust density and crust deformation (DD mode of coupling movement).

Reverse tracing of precursors and earthquake precursors in Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the precursors of large earthquakes in the eastern region of Taiwan by means of the reverse tracing of precursors. We discuss the parameters which are suitable for the seismic chains and intermedi- ate-term patterns in this region and obtain the threshold of the patterns. Applying the linear discriminate method to the intermediate-term patterns of seismic chains, we present an approach for exploring the precursors of large earthquakes. The results show that this method can reduce the false alarm rate for large earthquakes in this region, and the reverse tracing of precursors can be applied to the eastern region of Taiwan.

Earthquake precursors detected by astronomical observations

It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We investigate the relation between the residual anomalies and the three key factors of an earthquake. To build a network of observational sites so as to obtain data of residuals of universal time and latitude from multi-instruments would be of certain significance for determining three key factors of an earthquake, especially for positioning epicenter. The data from multi-instruments would also be valuable for studies of the variation of the vertical. It is proposed to manufacture potable and high-accuracy astrometric instruments and to build observational network to obtain anomalies of universal time and latitude in the regions with high earthquake uprising possibilities.

The synergy of earthquake precursors

The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process leading to the critical state of the system. The processes in atmosphere and ionosphere are considered from the point of view of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The intensive ionization of boundary layer of atmosphere （probably provided by radon in occasion of earthquake preparation） gives start to the synergetic sequence of coupling processes where the ionosphere and even magnetosphere are the last links in the chain of interactions. Every anomaly observed in different geophysical fields （surface temperature, latent heat flux, electromagnetic emissions, variations in ionosphere, particle precipitation, etc.） is not considered as an individual process but the part of the self-organizing process, the final goal of which is the reaching of the point of the maximum entropy. Radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake is considered as a perfect example to satisfy the formal seismological determination of the earthquake precursor. What is genetically connected with radon through the ionization process can also be regarded as a precursor. The problem of co-seismic variations of the discussed parameters of atmosphere and ionosphere is considered as well.

Establishment of the ELF Network in Yunnan and Electromagnetic Precursory Monitoring Results of the Yangbi MS5.1 Earthquake on March 27,2017

This paper summarizes the layout of the Yunnan seismic ELF electromagnetic observation network,site selection,ELF electromagnetic instrument system,data processing and other construction. The principle and method of using the ELF electromagnetic wave technique to monitor and predict earthquakes are expounded. The long term monitoring of ELF electromagnetic fields is carried out in the Yunnan earthquake prone area,and at the same time,the changes in electrical parameters and spatial electromagnetic fields of the regional crustal medium structure are monitored. The functions such as automatic,quasi real time, remote monitoring, network monitoring, data processing specialization, data service,data sharing and industrialization of the ELF electromagnetic observation data have been realized. In order to capture the deep electromagnetic precursory information of the earthquakes,service for earthquake prediction research,which has broad application prospects and development potential. Through the research of the seismicity of Yunnan in the trial run period of the project,the preliminary results of the extreme low frequency electromagnetic observation of the Yunnan earthquake in recent years are given. The electromagnetic precursors and the electromagnetic effects of the Yangbi earthquake are recorded. In the 3-month period before the earthquake,the power spectrum of the electric and magnetic fields,the apparent resistivity and the impedance phase in the observed signals are all abnormal,and gradually increased with time. The maximum value is reached 20 days before the earthquake,and an earthquake occurs when the change is restored to normal.

Nucleation of earthquakes and its implication to precursors

The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of the eruptive processes. Thus, it is needed to discuss how to exactly translate the word 'nucleation' into Chinese in different fields. The basic concept of earthquake nucleation refers to microcrack concentration in rock. It causes local weakening and instability of the rock. The narrow sense of nucleation theory of friction constitutive is significant in friction of fault surfaces, but should not abuse everywhere unconditionally. In terms of thermodynamics, nucleation actually means the variety processes of multiple state parameters of rock. The nucleation is a project that covers multiple courses. In this paper, the studies of damage theory, fracture, earthquake rupture dynamics and constitutive of friction and their implication to earthquake nucleation are remarked. The recently developments are introduced, including the influence of tectonic on the earthquake nucleation process, the method of measuring medium anisotropy, especially shear wave splitting led by concentration and orientation of microcracks. and the experimental study of remote sensing of infrared and microwave radiation related to the nucleation, etc. This paper also discusses the characteristic of large earthquake nucleation, and the implication of above studies to precursors of Strong earthquakes.

Ionospheric precursors of strong earthquakes observed using six GNSS stations data during continuous five years(2011-2015)

This study reports the morphological characteristics of anomalous variations in Global Navigation Satellite System Total Electron Content(GNSS-TEC) prior to the strong local earthquakes(EQ) that occurred during the period of 2011-2015.We have analyzed 20 earthquakes of magnitude M> 5.6.A statistical technique is implemented on the data of six GNSS stations located in Tashkent,Kitab,and Maidanak in Uzbekistan,and Islamabad,Multan,Quetta in Pakistan.The results show continuous anomalous variations in TEC during 24 h befo re the occupancy of local earthquakes.It is shown that the precursors before the occurrence of strong earthquakes,in particular of magnitude 5.7,7.7,7.5,7.8 and 7.3 are detected near Eastern Uzbekistan(26 May 2013),Southwestern Pakistan(24 September 2013),Hindukush region of Afghanistan(26 October 2015),and Central Nepal(25 April 2015) and(12 May 2015),respectively.The ionospheric anomalies appearing before the strong earthquakes at six GNSS stations are registered in 14cases(70%) out of 20 selected EQs.It is depicted that anomalies referred to as ionospheric precursors appeared about 1-7 days prior to the occurrence of strong earthquakes.

Study on the Criterion of the Correlation between Deformation Precursors and Earthquakes

The relationship between pre-seismic anomalous changes and earthquakes is one of the most basic information to comprehend the process of earthquake preparation and conduct earthquake prediction research.However,few researchers have carried out relevant investigations for a long time.In this paper,the distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies before the Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed,and the widespread distribution area is discussed.Based on previous studies,we improve the relationship between anomaly duration t and magnitude M by introducing distance D.The new model is characterized by lower magnitude fitting error,making it possible to establish the correlation between deformation precursors and earthquakes.The correlation standard between precursors and earthquakes here is defined as Niu's criterion,which is applied to analyze and interpret the relationship between the shortterm anomalies of Hongliuxia fault leveling and the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes.