Predictive modelling of volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures modified with waste tire-derived char:A statistical neural network approach

The goals of this study are to assess the viability of waste tire-derived char(WTDC)as a sustainable,low-cost fine aggregate surrogate material for asphalt mixtures and to develop the statistically coupled neural network(SCNN)model for predicting volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures modified with WTDC.The study is based on experimental data acquired from laboratory volumetric and Marshall properties testing on WTDCmodified asphalt mixtures(WTDC-MAM).The input variables comprised waste tire char content and asphalt binder content.The output variables comprised mixture unit weight,total voids,voids filled with asphalt,Marshall stability,and flow.Statistical coupled neural networks were utilized to predict the volumetric and Marshall properties of asphalt mixtures.For predictive modeling,the SCNN model is employed,incorporating a three-layer neural network and preprocessing techniques to enhance accuracy and reliability.The optimal network architecture,using the collected dataset,was a 2:6:5 structure,and the neural network was trained with 60%of the data,whereas the other 20%was used for cross-validation and testing respectively.The network employed a hyperbolic tangent(tanh)activation function and a feed-forward backpropagation.According to the results,the network model could accurately predict the volumetric and Marshall properties.The predicted accuracy of SCNN was found to be as high value>98%and low prediction errors for both volumetric and Marshall properties.This study demonstrates WTDC's potential as a low-cost,sustainable aggregate replacement.The SCNN-based predictive model proves its efficiency and versatility and promotes sustainable practices.

Challenges in predictive modelling of chronic kidney disease:A narrative review

The exponential rise in the burden of chronic kidney disease(CKD)worldwide has put enormous pressure on the economy.Predictive modeling of CKD can ease this burden by predicting the future disease occurrence ahead of its onset.There are various regression methods for predictive modeling based on the distribution of the outcome variable.However,the accuracy of the predictive model depends on how well the model is developed by taking into account the goodness of fit,choice of covariates,handling of covariates measured on a continuous scale,handling of categorical covariates,and number of outcome events per predictor parameter or sample size.Optimal performance of a predictive model on an independent cohort is desired.However,there are several challenges in the predictive modeling of CKD.Disease-specific methodological challenges hinder the development of a predictive model that is cost-effective and universally applicable to predict CKD onset.In this review,we discuss the advantages and challenges of various regression models available for predictive modeling and highlight those best for future CKD prediction.

Operation Efficiency Optimisation Modelling and Application of Model Predictive Control

The efficiency of any energy system can be charaterised by the relevant efficiency components in terms of performance, operation, equipment and technology(POET). The overall energy efficiency of the system can be optimised by studying the POET energy efficiency components. For an existing energy system, the improvement of operation efficiency will usually be a quick win for energy efficiency. Therefore, operation efficiency improvement will be the main purpose of this paper. General procedures to establish operation efficiency optimisation models are presented. Model predictive control, a popular technique in modern control theory, is applied to solve the obtained energy models. From the case studies in water pumping systems, model predictive control will have a prosperous application in more energy efficiency problems.

PRACTICAL AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING OF ORE DEPOSITS IN HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEMS

Over the pastfive years,we have been making efforts to develop a practical and predic- tive tool to exploreforgiantore deposits in hydrothermal systems. Towards this goal,a sig- nificant progress has been made towards a better understanding of the basic physical and chemical processes behind ore body formation and mineralization in hydrothermal systems. On the scientific developmentside,we have developed analytical solutions to answerthe fol- lowing scientific questions:(1) Can thepore- fluid pressure gradientbemaintained atthe val- ue of the lithostaticpressure gradientin the uppercrustof the Earth?and(2 ) Can convective pore- fluid flow take place in the uppercrustof the Earth ifthere is a fluid/mass leakage from the mantle to the upper crustof the Earth?On the modelling developmentside,we have developed numerical methods to model the following problems:(1) convective pore- fluid flow in two- dimensional hydrothermal systems;(2 ) coupled reactive pore- fluid flow and multiple species transport in porous media;(3) precipitation and dissolution of minerals and rock al- teration in the upper crust of the Earth;(4 ) double diffusion driven reactive flow transport in deformable fluid- saturated porous media with particular consideration of temperature- de- pendentchemical reaction rates;(5 ) pore- fluid flow patterns neargeological lenses in hydro- dynamic and hydrothermal systems;(6 ) dissipative structures for nonequilibrium chemical reactions in fluid- saturated porousmedia;(7) convectivepore- fluid flow and the related min- eralization in three- dimensional hydrothermal systems;(8) fluid- rock interaction problems associated with the rock alteration and metamorphic process in fluid- saturated hydrothermal/ sedimentary basins;and (9) various aspects of the fully coupled problem involving material deformation,pore- fluid flow,heattransferand species transport/ chemical reactionsin pore- fluid saturated porous rock masses. The above- mentioned work has significantly enriched our knowledge about the physical and chemical processes related to ore body formation and mineralization in the upper crustof the

Predictive modeling for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with abdominal malignancies using synthetic minority oversampling technique

BACKGROUND Postoperative delirium,particularly prevalent in elderly patients after abdominal cancer surgery,presents significant challenges in clinical management.AIM To develop a synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)-based model for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal cancer patients.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we analyzed data from 611 elderly patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor surgery at our hospital between September 2020 and October 2022.The incidence of postoperative delirium was recorded for 7 d post-surgery.Patients were divided into delirium and non-delirium groups based on the occurrence of postoperative delirium or not.A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium.The SMOTE technique was applied to enhance the model by oversampling the delirium cases.The model’s predictive accuracy was then validated.RESULTS In our study involving 611 elderly patients with abdominal malignant tumors,multivariate logistic regression analysis identified significant risk factors for postoperative delirium.These included the Charlson comorbidity index,American Society of Anesthesiologists classification,history of cerebrovascular disease,surgical duration,perioperative blood transfusion,and postoperative pain score.The incidence rate of postoperative delirium in our study was 22.91%.The original predictive model(P1)exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862.In comparison,the SMOTE-based logistic early warning model(P2),which utilized the SMOTE oversampling algorithm,showed a slightly lower but comparable area under the curve of 0.856,suggesting no significant difference in performance between the two predictive approaches.CONCLUSION This study confirms that the SMOTE-enhanced predictive model for postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal tumor patients shows performance equivalent to that of traditional methods,effectively addressing data imbalance.

Prediction of treatment response to antipsychotic drugs for precision medicine approach to schizophrenia:randomized trials and multiomics analysis

Background:Choosing the appropriate antipsychotic drug(APD)treatment for patients with schizophrenia(SCZ)can be challenging,as the treatment response to APD is highly variable and difficult to predict due to the lack of effective biomarkers.Previous studies have indicated the association between treatment response and genetic and epigenetic factors,but no effective biomarkers have been identified.Hence,further research is imperative to enhance precision medicine in SCZ treatment.Methods:Participants with SCZ were recruited from two randomized trials.The discovery cohort was recruited from the CAPOC trial(n=2307)involved 6 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,Quetiapine,Aripiprazole,Ziprasidone,and Haloperidol/Perphenazine(subsequently equally assigned to one or the other)groups.The external validation cohort was recruited from the CAPEC trial(n=1379),which involved 8 weeks of treatment and equally randomized the participants to the Olanzapine,Risperidone,and Aripiprazole groups.Additionally,healthy controls(n=275)from the local community were utilized as a genetic/epigenetic reference.The genetic and epigenetic(DNA methylation)risks of SCZ were assessed using the polygenic risk score(PRS)and polymethylation score,respectively.The study also examined the genetic-epigenetic interactions with treatment response through differential methylation analysis,methylation quantitative trait loci,colocalization,and promoteranchored chromatin interaction.Machine learning was used to develop a prediction model for treatment response,which was evaluated for accuracy and clinical benefit using the area under curve(AUC)for classification,R^(2) for regression,and decision curve analysis.Results:Six risk genes for SCZ(LINC01795,DDHD2,SBNO1,KCNG2,SEMA7A,and RUFY1)involved in cortical morphology were identified as having a genetic-epigenetic interaction associated with treatment response.The developed and externally validated prediction model,which incorporated clinical information,PRS,genetic risk score(GRS),and proxy methylation level(proxyDNAm),demonstrated positive benefits for a wide range of patients receiving different APDs,regardless of sex[discovery cohort:AUC=0.874(95%CI 0.867-0.881),R^(2)=0.478;external validation cohort:AUC=0.851(95%CI 0.841-0.861),R^(2)=0.507].Conclusions:This study presents a promising precision medicine approach to evaluate treatment response,which has the potential to aid clinicians in making informed decisions about APD treatment for patients with SCZ.Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry(https://www.chictr.org.cn/),18 Aug 2009 retrospectively registered:CAPOC-ChiCTR-RNC-09000521(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9014),CAPEC-ChiCTRRNC-09000522(https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=9013).

Establishment of predictive models and determinants of preoperative gastric retention in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography

BACKGROUND Study on influencing factors of gastric retention before endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)background:With the wide application of ERCP,the risk of preoperative gastric retention affects the smooth progress of the operation.The study found that female,biliary and pancreatic malignant tumor,digestive tract obstruction and other factors are closely related to gastric retention,so the establishment of predictive model is very important to reduce the risk of operation.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 190 patients admitted to our hospital for ERCP preparation between January 2020 and February 2024.Patient baseline clinical data were collected using an electronic medical record system.Patients were randomly matched in a 1:4 ratio with data from 190 patients during the same period to establish a validation group(n=38)and a modeling group(n=152).Patients in the modeling group were divided into the gastric retention group(n=52)and non-gastric retention group(n=100)based on whether gastric retention occurred preoperatively.General data of patients in the validation group and identify factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients.A predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients was constructed,and calibration curves were used for validation.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was analyzed to evaluate the predictive value of the model.RESULTS We found no statistically significant difference in general data between the validation group and modeling group(P>0.05).The comparison of age,body mass index,hypertension,and diabetes between the two groups showed no statistically significant difference(P>0.05).However,we noted statistically significant differences in gender,primary disease,jaundice,opioid use,and gastrointestinal obstruction between the two groups(P<0.05).Mul-tivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gender,primary disease,jaundice,opioid use,and gastrointestinal obstruction were independent factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients(P<0.05).The results of logistic regression analysis revealed that gender,primary disease,jaundice,opioid use,and gastroin-testinal obstruction were included in the predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients.The calibration curves in the training set and validation set showed a slope close to 1,indicating good consistency between the predicted risk and actual risk.The ROC analysis results showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the predictive model for preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients in the training set was 0.901 with a standard error of 0.023(95%CI:0.8264-0.9567),and the optimal cutoff value was 0.71,with a sensitivity of 87.5 and specificity of 84.2.In the validation set,the AUC of the predictive model was 0.842 with a standard error of 0.013(95%CI:0.8061-0.9216),and the optimal cutoff value was 0.56,with a sensitivity of 56.2 and specificity of 100.0.CONCLUSION Gender,primary disease,jaundice,opioid use,and gastrointestinal obstruction are factors influencing preoperative gastric retention in ERCP patients.A predictive model established based on these factors has high predictive value.

NUMERICAL GEODYNAMIC MODELLING OF COUPLED MECHANO-THERMO-HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES AND ITS APPLICATION IN PREDICTIVE EXPLORATION IN THE FENGHUANGSHAN ORE FIELD, TONGLING

Mineralisation is the result of the coupled multi-geodynamic processes in the crust. The coupled mechano-thermo-hydrological （MTH） processes are the basic physical processes that govern the location of the hydrothermal mineralization, which can be simulated in the computer by using of the numerical codes, such as FLAC. The numerical modeling results can be used not only to explain the features of existing ore deposits, but also to predict the fhvorable mineralization locations. This paper has summarized the basic equations describing coupled MHT processes in the water-saturated porous rocks, the principles of FLAC, and its application to the MHT processes related to copper mineralization in the Fenghuangshan ore field. We used the FLAC to simulate the syn-deformation cooling and fluid flowing evolution after the intrusion was emplaced and solidified. The modeling results suggest a most prospective exploration area where the subsequent exploration supported the prediction and the test bore hole disclosed the high quality copper ore bodies in the target, demonstrating a positive role of the numerical MTH modeling in facilitating predictive ore discovery.

Validation and performance of three scoring systems for predicting primary non-function and early allograft failure after liver transplantation

Background: Primary non-function(PNF) and early allograft failure(EAF) after liver transplantation(LT) seriously affect patient outcomes. In clinical practice, effective prognostic tools for early identifying recipients at high risk of PNF and EAF were urgently needed. Recently, the Model for Early Allograft Function(MEAF), PNF score by King's College(King-PNF) and Balance-and-Risk-Lactate(BAR-Lac) score were developed to assess the risks of PNF and EAF. This study aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of these three scores for predicting PNF and EAF. Methods: A retrospective study included 720 patients with primary LT between January 2015 and December 2020. MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and the net reclassification improvement(NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement(IDI) analyses. Results: Of all 720 patients, 28(3.9%) developed PNF and 67(9.3%) developed EAF in 3 months. The overall early allograft dysfunction(EAD) rate was 39.0%. The 3-month patient mortality was 8.6% while 1-year graft-failure-free survival was 89.2%. The median MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac scores were 5.0(3.5–6.3),-2.1(-2.6 to-1.2), and 5.0(2.0–11.0), respectively. For predicting PNF, MEAF and King-PNF scores had excellent area under curves(AUCs) of 0.872 and 0.891, superior to BAR-Lac(AUC = 0.830). The NRI and IDI analyses confirmed that King-PNF score had the best performance in predicting PNF while MEAF served as a better predictor of EAD. The EAF risk curve and 1-year graft-failure-free survival curve showed that King-PNF was superior to MEAF and BAR-Lac scores for stratifying the risk of EAF. Conclusions: MEAF, King-PNF and BAR-Lac were validated as practical and effective risk assessment tools of PNF. King-PNF score outperformed MEAF and BAR-Lac in predicting PNF and EAF within 6 months. BAR-Lac score had a huge advantage in the prediction for PNF without post-transplant variables. Proper use of these scores will help early identify PNF, standardize grading of EAF and reasonably select clinical endpoints in relative studies.

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography

BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography(2D-SWE)can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)predictions.AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC.METHODS A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital.The patients were divided into the modeling group(n=720)and the control group(n=164).The study included conventional ultrasound,2D-SWE,and preoperative laboratory tests.Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for RESULTS In the modeling group analysis,maximal elasticity(Emax)of tumors and their peripheries,platelet count,cirrhosis,and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies.These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77(95%confidence interval:0.73-0.81)with 84%sensitivity and 61%specificity.The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts,as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P=0.683 and P=0.658,respectively).Additionally,the mean elasticity(Emean)of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion(MVI)in malignant liver tumors(P=0.003).Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count(P=0.002),Emax of tumors(P=0.033),Emean of tumors(P=0.042),Emax at tumor periphery(P<0.001),and Emean at tumor periphery(P=0.003).CONCLUSION 2D-SWE’s hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions,correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.

Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control:lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020,an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health.To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios,the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics(CHIME)was used.With increasing social distancing,the epidemiological curve flattened,and its peak shifted to the right.The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset;however,subsequently,it fell below all predicted trends.Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.

Analysis of risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in patients with prostate cancer after castration and the construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.

Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Modelling analysis embodies drastic transition among global potential natural vegetations in face of changing climate

Potential natural vegetation(PNV)is a valuable reference for ecosystem renovation and has garnered increasing attention worldwide.However,there is limited knowledge on the spatio-temporal distributions,transitional processes,and underlying mechanisms of global natural vegetation,particularly in the case of ongoing climate warming.In this study,we visualize the spatio-temporal pattern and inter-transition procedure of global PNV,analyse the shifting distances and directions of global PNV under the influence of climatic disturbance,and explore the mechanisms of global PNV in response to temperature and precipitation fluctuations.To achieve this,we utilize meteorological data,mainly temperature and precipitation,from six phases:the Last Inter-Glacial(LIG),the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid Holocene(MH),the Present Day(PD),2030(20212040)and 2090(2081–2100),and employ a widely-accepted comprehensive and sequential classification sy–stem(CSCS)for global PNV classification.We find that the spatial patterns of five PNV groups(forest,shrubland,savanna,grassland and tundra)generally align with their respective ecotopes,although their distributions have shifted due to fluctuating temperature and precipitation.Notably,we observe an unexpected transition between tundra and savanna despite their geographical distance.The shifts in distance and direction of five PNV groups are mainly driven by temperature and precipitation,although there is heterogeneity among these shifts for each group.Indeed,the heterogeneity observed among different global PNV groups suggests that they may possess varying capacities to adjust to and withstand the impacts of changing climate.The spatio-temporal distributions,mutual transitions and shift tendencies of global PNV and its underlying mechanism in face of changing climate,as revealed in this study,can significantly contribute to the development of strategies for mitigating warming and promoting re-vegetation in degraded regions worldwide.

Quantitative prediction model for the depth limit of oil accumulation in the deep carbonate rocks:A case study of Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin

With continuous hydrocarbon exploration extending to deeper basins,the deepest industrial oil accumulation was discovered below 8,200 m,revealing a new exploration field.Hence,the extent to which oil exploration can be extended,and the prediction of the depth limit of oil accumulation(DLOA),are issues that have attracted significant attention in petroleum geology.Since it is difficult to characterize the evolution of the physical properties of the marine carbonate reservoir with burial depth,and the deepest drilling still cannot reach the DLOA.Hence,the DLOA cannot be predicted by directly establishing the relationship between the ratio of drilling to the dry layer and the depth.In this study,by establishing the relationships between the porosity and the depth and dry layer ratio of the carbonate reservoir,the relationships between the depth and dry layer ratio were obtained collectively.The depth corresponding to a dry layer ratio of 100%is the DLOA.Based on this,a quantitative prediction model for the DLOA was finally built.The results indicate that the porosity of the carbonate reservoir,Lower Ordovician in Tazhong area of Tarim Basin,tends to decrease with burial depth,and manifests as an overall low porosity reservoir in deep layer.The critical porosity of the DLOA was 1.8%,which is the critical geological condition corresponding to a 100%dry layer ratio encountered in the reservoir.The depth of the DLOA was 9,000 m.This study provides a new method for DLOA prediction that is beneficial for a deeper understanding of oil accumulation,and is of great importance for scientific guidance on deep oil drilling.

A method for establishing a bearing residual life prediction model for process enhancement equipment based on rotor imbalance response analysis

A rotating packed bed is a typical chemical process enhancement equipment that can strengthen micromixing and mass transfer.During the operation of the rotating packed bed,the nonreactants and products irregularly adhere to the wire mesh packing in the rotor,thus resulting in an imbalance in the vibration of the rotor,which may cause serious damage to the bearing and material leakage.This study proposes a model prediction for estimating the bearing residual life of a rotating packed bed based on rotor imbalance response analysis.This method is used to determine the influence of the mass on the imbalance in the vibration of the rotor on bearing damage.The major influence on rotor vibration was found to be exerted by the imbalanced mass and its distribution radius,as revealed by the results of orthogonal experiments.Through implementing finite element analysis,the imbalance response curve for the rotating packed bed rotor was obtained,and a correlation among rotor imbalance mass,distribution radius of imbalance mass,and bearing residue life was established via data fitting.The predicted value of the bearing life can be used as the reference basis for an early safety warning of a rotating packed bed to effectively avoid accidents.

Prediction Model-based Multi-objective Optimization for Mix-ratio Design of Recycled Aggregate Concrete

The prediction model for mechanical properties of RAC was established through the Bayesian optimization-based Gaussian process regression(BO-GPR)method,where the input variables in BO-GPR model depend on the mix ratio of concrete.Then the compressive strength prediction model,the material cost,and environmental factors were simultaneously considered as objectives,while a multi-objective gray wolf optimization algorithm was developed for finding the optimal mix ratio.A total of 730 RAC datasets were used for training and testing the predication model,while the optimal design method for mix ratio was verified through RAC experiments.The experimental results show that the predicted,testing,and expected compressive strengths are nearly consistent,illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Assessing recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis Brelated hepatocellular carcinoma by a predictive model based on sarcopenia

BACKGROUND Sarcopenia may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)following hepatectomy.But traditional single clinical variables are still insufficient to predict recurrence.We still lack effective prediction models for recent recurrence(time to recurrence<2 years)after hepatectomy for HCC.AIM To establish an interventable prediction model to estimate recurrence-free survival(RFS)after hepatectomy for HCC based on sarcopenia.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 283 hepatitis B-related HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for the first time,and the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine was measured by preoperative computed tomography.94 of these patients were enrolled for external validation.Cox multivariate analysis was per-formed to identify the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in training cohort.A nomogram model was developed to predict the RFS of HCC patients,and its predictive performance was validated.The predictive efficacy of this model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia[Hazard ratio(HR)=1.767,95%CI:1.166-2.678,P<0.05],alpha-fetoprotein≥40 ng/mL(HR=1.984,95%CI:1.307-3.011,P<0.05),the maximum diameter of tumor>5 cm(HR=2.222,95%CI:1.285-3.842,P<0.05),and hepatitis B virus DNA level≥2000 IU/mL(HR=2.1,95%CI:1.407-3.135,P<0.05)were independent risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence of HCC.Based on the sarcopenia to assess the RFS model of hepatectomy with hepatitis B-related liver cancer disease(SAMD)was established combined with other the above risk factors.The area under the curve of the SAMD model was 0.782(95%CI:0.705-0.858)in the training cohort(sensitivity 81%,specificity 63%)and 0.773(95%CI:0.707-0.838)in the validation cohort.Besides,a SAMD score≥110 was better to distinguish the high-risk group of postoperative recurrence of HCC.CONCLUSION Sarcopenia is associated with recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related HCC.A nutritional status-based prediction model is first established for postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B-related HCC,which is superior to other models and contributes to prognosis prediction.

Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy:Current status and future perspectives

Postoperative pancreatic fistula(POPF)is a frequent complication after pancre-atectomy,leading to increased morbidity and mortality.Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research.Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy,predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical,surgical,and radiological parameters,have been documented,their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations.As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be pro-gressively reported,their external validation is eagerly anticipated.Conversely,POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage,warranting urgent need for further development and validation.The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance.Moreover,there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient-or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF.In the future,prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies,such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics,may further refine predictive models.Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification,clinical decision-making,and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancre-atectomy.