Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

AFSTGCN:Prediction for multivariate time series using an adaptive fused spatial-temporal graph convolutional network

The prediction for Multivariate Time Series(MTS)explores the interrelationships among variables at historical moments,extracts their relevant characteristics,and is widely used in finance,weather,complex industries and other fields.Furthermore,it is important to construct a digital twin system.However,existing methods do not take full advantage of the potential properties of variables,which results in poor predicted accuracy.In this paper,we propose the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(AFSTGCN).First,to address the problem of the unknown spatial-temporal structure,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph(AFSTG)layer.Specifically,we fuse the spatial-temporal graph based on the interrelationship of spatial graphs.Simultaneously,we construct the adaptive adjacency matrix of the spatial-temporal graph using node embedding methods.Subsequently,to overcome the insufficient extraction of disordered correlation features,we construct the Adaptive Fused Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional(AFSTGC)module.The module forces the reordering of disordered temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal dependencies into rule-like data.AFSTGCN dynamically and synchronously acquires potential temporal,spatial and spatial-temporal correlations,thereby fully extracting rich hierarchical feature information to enhance the predicted accuracy.Experiments on different types of MTS datasets demonstrate that the model achieves state-of-the-art single-step and multi-step performance compared with eight other deep learning models.

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels

Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.

Time Predictable Modeling Method for GPU Architecture with SIMT and Cache Miss Awareness

Graphics Processing Units(GPUs)are used to accelerate computing-intensive tasks,such as neural networks,data analysis,high-performance computing,etc.In the past decade or so,researchers have done a lot of work on GPU architecture and proposed a variety of theories and methods to study the microarchitectural characteristics of various GPUs.In this study,the GPU serves as a co-processor and works together with the CPU in an embedded real-time system to handle computationally intensive tasks.It models the architecture of the GPU and further considers it based on some excellent work.The SIMT mechanism and Cache-miss situation provide a more detailed analysis of the GPU architecture.In order to verify the GPU architecture model proposed in this article,10 GPU kernel_task and an Nvidia GPU device were used to perform experiments.The experimental results showed that the minimum error between the kernel task execution time predicted by the GPU architecture model proposed in this article and the actual measured kernel task execution time was 3.80%,and the maximum error was 8.30%.

Multiple Extreme Learning Machines Based Arrival Time Prediction for Public Bus Transport

Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where informa-tion regarding all the buses connecting in a city will be gathered,processed and accurate bus arrival time prediction will be presented to the user.Various linear and time-varying parameters such as distance,waiting time at stops,red signal duration at a traffic signal,traffic density,turning density,rush hours,weather conditions,number of passengers on the bus,type of day,road type,average vehi-cle speed limit,current vehicle speed affecting traffic are used for the analysis.The proposed model exploits the feasibility and applicability of ELM in the travel time forecasting area.Multiple ELMs(MELM)for explicitly training dynamic,road and trajectory information are used in the proposed approach.A large-scale dataset(historical data)obtained from Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is used for training.Simulations are carried out by using MATLAB R2021a.The experiments revealed that the efficiency of MELM is independent of the time of day and day of the week.It can manage huge volumes of data with less human intervention at greater learning speeds.It is found MELM yields prediction with accuracy in the range of 96.7%to 99.08%.The MAE value is between 0.28 to 1.74 minutes with the proposed approach.The study revealed that there could be regularity in bus usage and daily bus rides are predictable with a better degree of accuracy.The research has proved that MELM is superior for arrival time pre-dictions in terms of accuracy and error,compared with other approaches.

Research on Prediction of Sentiment Trend of Food Safety Public Opinion

Emotion has a nearly decisive role in behavior, which will directly affect netizens’ views on food safety public opinion events, thereby affecting the development direction of public opinion on the event, and it is of great significance for food safety network public opinion to predict emotional trends to do a good job in food safety network public opinion guidance. In this paper, the dynamic text representation method XLNet is used to generate word vectors with context-dependent dependencies to distribute the text information of food safety network public opinion. Then, the word vector is input into the CNN-BiLSTM network for local semantic feature and context semantic extraction. The attention mechanism is introduced to give different weights according to the importance of features, and the emotional tendency analysis is carried out. Based on sentiment analysis, sentiment value time series data is obtained, and a time series model is constructed to predict sentiment trends. The sentiment analysis model proposed in this paper can well classify the sentiment of food safety network public opinion, and the time series model has a good effect on the prediction of food safety network public opinion sentiment trend. .

Enhancing Fire Detection Performance Based on Fine-Tuned YOLOv10

In recent years,early detection and warning of fires have posed a significant challenge to environmental protection and human safety.Deep learning models such as Faster R-CNN(Faster Region based Convolutional Neural Network),YOLO(You Only Look Once),and their variants have demonstrated superiority in quickly detecting objects from images and videos,creating new opportunities to enhance automatic and efficient fire detection.The YOLO model,especially newer versions like YOLOv10,stands out for its fast processing capability,making it suitable for low-latency applications.However,when applied to real-world datasets,the accuracy of fire prediction is still not high.This study improves the accuracy of YOLOv10 for real-time applications through model fine-tuning techniques and data augmentation.The core work of the research involves creating a diverse fire image dataset specifically suited for fire detection applications in buildings and factories,freezing the initial layers of the model to retain general features learned from the dataset by applying the Squeeze and Excitation attention mechanism and employing the Stochastic Gradient Descent(SGD)with a momentum optimization algorithm to enhance accuracy while ensuring real-time fire detection.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fire prediction approach,where the YOLOv10 small model exhibits the best balance compared to other YOLO family models such as nano,medium,and balanced.Additionally,the study provides an experimental evaluation to highlight the effectiveness of model fine-tuning compared to the YOLOv10 baseline,YOLOv8 and Faster R-CNN based on two criteria:accuracy and prediction time.

Performance Degradation Prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Based on CEEMDAN-KPCA and DA-GRU Networks

In order to improve the performance degradation prediction accuracy of proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC),a fusion prediction method(CKDG)based on adaptive noise complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMDAN),kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and dual attention mechanism gated recurrent unit neural network(DA-GRU)was proposed.CEEMDAN and KPCA were used to extract the input feature data sequence,reduce the influence of random factors,and capture essential feature components to reduce the model complexity.The DA-GRU network helps to learn the feature mapping relationship of data in long time series and predict the changing trend of performance degradation data more accurately.The actual aging experimental data verify the performance of the CKDG method.The results show that under the steady-state condition of 20%training data prediction,the CKDA method can reduce the root mean square error(RMSE)by 52.7%and 34.6%,respectively,compared with the traditional LSTM and GRU neural networks.Compared with the simple DA-GRU network,RMSE is reduced by 15%,and the degree of over-fitting is reduced,which has higher accuracy.It also shows excellent prediction performance under the dynamic condition data set and has good universality.

Multi-dimension and multi-modal rolling mill vibration prediction model based on multi-level network fusion

Mill vibration is a common problem in rolling production,which directly affects the thickness accuracy of the strip and may even lead to strip fracture accidents in serious cases.The existing vibration prediction models do not consider the features contained in the data,resulting in limited improvement of model accuracy.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional multi-modal cold rolling vibration time series prediction model(MDMMVPM)based on the deep fusion of multi-level networks.In the model,the long-term and short-term modal features of multi-dimensional data are considered,and the appropriate prediction algorithms are selected for different data features.Based on the established prediction model,the effects of tension and rolling force on mill vibration are analyzed.Taking the 5th stand of a cold mill in a steel mill as the research object,the innovative model is applied to predict the mill vibration for the first time.The experimental results show that the correlation coefficient(R^(2))of the model proposed in this paper is 92.5%,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is 0.0011,which significantly improves the modeling accuracy compared with the existing models.The proposed model is also suitable for the hot rolling process,which provides a new method for the prediction of strip rolling vibration.

Exploring reservoir computing:Implementation via double stochastic nanowire networks

Neuromorphic computing,inspired by the human brain,uses memristor devices for complex tasks.Recent studies show that self-organizing random nanowires can implement neuromorphic information processing,enabling data analysis.This paper presents a model based on these nanowire networks,with an improved conductance variation profile.We suggest using these networks for temporal information processing via a reservoir computing scheme and propose an efficient data encoding method using voltage pulses.The nanowire network layer generates dynamic behaviors for pulse voltages,allowing time series prediction analysis.Our experiment uses a double stochastic nanowire network architecture for processing multiple input signals,outperforming traditional reservoir computing in terms of fewer nodes,enriched dynamics and improved prediction accuracy.Experimental results confirm the high accuracy of this architecture on multiple real-time series datasets,making neuromorphic nanowire networks promising for physical implementation of reservoir computing.

An Integrated Analysis of Yield Prediction Models:A Comprehensive Review of Advancements and Challenges

The growing global requirement for food and the need for sustainable farming in an era of a changing climate and scarce resources have inspired substantial crop yield prediction research.Deep learning(DL)and machine learning(ML)models effectively deal with such challenges.This research paper comprehensively analyses recent advancements in crop yield prediction from January 2016 to March 2024.In addition,it analyses the effectiveness of various input parameters considered in crop yield prediction models.We conducted an in-depth search and gathered studies that employed crop modeling and AI-based methods to predict crop yield.The total number of articles reviewed for crop yield prediction using ML,meta-modeling(Crop models coupled with ML/DL),and DL-based prediction models and input parameter selection is 125.We conduct the research by setting up five objectives for this research and discussing them after analyzing the selected research papers.Each study is assessed based on the crop type,input parameters employed for prediction,the modeling techniques adopted,and the evaluation metrics used for estimatingmodel performance.We also discuss the ethical and social impacts of AI on agriculture.However,various approaches presented in the scientific literature have delivered impressive predictions,they are complicateddue to intricate,multifactorial influences oncropgrowthand theneed for accuratedata-driven models.Therefore,thorough research is required to deal with challenges in predicting agricultural output.

New prediction of chaotic time series based on local Lyapunov exponent

A new method of predicting chaotic time series is presented based on a local Lyapunov exponent, by quantitatively measuring the exponential rate of separation or attraction of two infinitely close trajectories in state space. After recon- structing state space from one-dimensional chaotic time series, neighboring multiple-state vectors of the predicting point are selected to deduce the prediction formula by using the definition of the locaI Lyapunov exponent. Numerical simulations are carded out to test its effectiveness and verify its higher precision over two older methods. The effects of the number of referential state vectors and added noise on forecasting accuracy are also studied numerically.

Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption

The chaotic characteristics and maximum predictable time scale of the observation series of hourly water consumption in Hangzhou were investigated using the advanced algorithm presented here is based on the conventional Wolf's algorithm for the largest Lyapunov exponent. For comparison, the largest Lyapunov exponents of water consumption series with one-hour and 24-hour intervals were calculated respectively. The results indicated that chaotic characteristics obviously exist in the hourly water consumption system; and that observation series with 24-hour interval have longer maximum predictable scale than hourly series. These findings could have significant practical application for better prediction of urban hourly water consumption.

Numerical Prediction Methods for Clock Deviation Based on Two-Way Satellite Time and Frequency Transfer Data

Three functional models, polynomial, spectral analysis, and modified AR model, are studied and compared in fitting and predicting clock deviation based on the data sequence derived from two-way satellite time and frequency transfer. A robust equivalent weight is applied, which controls the significant influence of outlying observations. Some conclusions show that the prediction precision of robust estimation is better than that of LS. The prediction precision calculated from smoothed observations is higher than that calculated from sampling observations. As a count of the obvious period variations in the clock deviation sequence, the predicted values of polynomial model are implausible. The prediction precision of spectral analysis model is very low, but the principal periods can be determined. The prediction RMS of 6-hour extrapolation interval is Ins or so, when modified AR model is used.

Travel time prediction model of freeway based on gradient boosting decision tree

To investigate the travel time prediction method of the freeway, a model based on the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) is proposed. Eleven variables (namely, travel time in current period T i , traffic flow in current period Q i , speed in current period V i , density in current period K i , the number of vehicles in current period N i , occupancy in current period R i , traffic state parameter in current period X i , travel time in previous time period T i -1 , etc.) are selected to predict the travel time for 10 min ahead in the proposed model. Data obtained from VISSIM simulation is used to train and test the model. The results demonstrate that the prediction error of the GBDT model is smaller than those of the back propagation (BP) neural network model and the support vector machine (SVM) model. Travel time in current period T i is the most important variable among all variables in the GBDT model. The GBDT model can produce more accurate prediction results and mine the hidden nonlinear relationships deeply between variables and the predicted travel time.

A PSO-SVM Model for Short-Term Travel Time Prediction Based on Bluetooth Technology

The accurate prediction of travel time along roadway provides valuable traffic information for travelers and traffic managers. Aiming at short-term travel time forecasting on urban arterials,a prediction model( PSOSVM) combining support vector machine( SVM) and particle swarm optimization( PSO) is developed. Travel time data collected with Bluetooth devices are used to calibrate the proposed model. Field experiments show that the PSO-SVM model 's error indicators are lower than the single SVM model and the BP neural network( BPNN) model. Particularly,the mean-absolute percentage error( MAPE) of PSO-SVM is only 9. 453 4 %which is less than that of the single SVM model( 12. 230 2 %) and the BPNN model( 15. 314 7 %). The results indicate that the proposed PSO-SVM model is feasible and more effective than other models for shortterm travel time prediction on urban arterials.

Generalized unscented Kalman filtering based radial basis function neural network for the prediction of ground radioactivity time series with missing data

On the assumption that random interruptions in the observation process are modeled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables, we firstly generalize two kinds of nonlinear filtering methods with random interruption failures in the observation based on the extended Kalman filtering （EKF） and the unscented Kalman filtering （UKF）, which were shortened as GEKF and CUKF in this paper, respectively. Then the nonlinear filtering model is established by using the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） prototypes and the network weights as state equation and the output of RBFNN to present the observation equation. Finally, we take the filtering problem under missing observed data as a special case of nonlinear filtering with random intermittent failures by setting each missing data to be zero without needing to pre-estimate the missing data, and use the GEKF-based RBFNN and the GUKF-based RBFNN to predict the ground radioactivity time series with missing data. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction results of GUKF-based RBFNN accord well with the real ground radioactivity time series while the prediction results of GEKF-based RBFNN are divergent.

STUDY ON THE PREDICTION METHOD OF LOW-DIMENSION TIME SERIES THAT ARISE FROM THE INTRINSIC NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

The prediction methods and its applications of the nonlinear dynamic systems determined from chaotic time series of low-dimension are discussed mainly. Based on the work of the foreign researchers, the chaotic time series in the phase space adopting one kind of nonlinear chaotic model were reconstructed. At first, the model parameters were estimated by using the improved least square method. Then as the precision was satisfied, the optimization method was used to estimate these parameters. At the end by using the obtained chaotic model, the future data of the chaotic time series in the phase space was predicted. Some representative experimental examples were analyzed to testify the models and the algorithms developed in this paper. ne results show that if the algorithms developed here are adopted, the parameters of the corresponding chaotic model will be easily calculated well and true. Predictions of chaotic series in phase space make the traditional methods change from outer iteration to interpolations. And if the optimal model rank is chosen, the prediction precision will increase notably. Long term superior predictability of nonlinear chaotic models is proved to be irrational and unreasonable.

Time series online prediction algorithm based on least squares support vector machine

Deficiencies of applying the traditional least squares support vector machine （LS-SVM） to time series online prediction were specified. According to the kernel function matrix＇s property and using the recursive calculation of block matrix, a new time series online prediction algorithm based on improved LS-SVM was proposed. The historical training results were fully utilized and the computing speed of LS-SVM was enhanced. Then, the improved algorithm was applied to timc series online prediction. Based on the operational data provided by the Northwest Power Grid of China, the method was used in the transient stability prediction of electric power system. The results show that, compared with the calculation time of the traditional LS-SVM（75 1 600 ms）, that of the proposed method in different time windows is 40-60 ms, proposed method is above 0.8. So the improved method is online prediction. and the prediction accuracy（normalized root mean squared error） of the better than the traditional LS-SVM and more suitable for time series online prediction.