Failure Prediction and Intelligent Maintenance of a Transportation Company’s Urban Fleet

The present work deals with intelligent vehicle fleet maintenance and prediction. We propose an approach based primarily on the history of failures data and on the geographical data system. The objective here is to predict the date of failures for a fleet of vehicles in order to allow the maintenance department to efficiently deploy the proper resources;we further provide specific details regarding the origins of failures, and finally, give recommendations. This study used the Société de transport de Montréal (STM)’s historical bus failure data as well as weather data from Environment Canada. We thank Facebook’s Prophet, Simple Feed-forward, and Beats algorithms (Uber), we proposed a set of computer codes that allow us to identify the 20% of buses that are responsible for the 80% of failures by mean of the failure history. Then, we deepened our study on the unreliable equipments identified during the diffusion of our computer code This allowed us to propose probable predictions of the dates of future failures. To ensure the validity of the proposed algorithm, we carried out simulations with more than 250,000 data. The results obtained are similar to the predicted theoretical values.

Evolutionary Decision-Making and Planning for Autonomous Driving Based on Safe and Rational Exploration and Exploitation

Decision-making and motion planning are extremely important in autonomous driving to ensure safe driving in a real-world environment.This study proposes an online evolutionary decision-making and motion planning framework for autonomous driving based on a hybrid data-and model-driven method.First,a data-driven decision-making module based on deep reinforcement learning(DRL)is developed to pursue a rational driving performance as much as possible.Then,model predictive control(MPC)is employed to execute both longitudinal and lateral motion planning tasks.Multiple constraints are defined according to the vehicle’s physical limit to meet the driving task requirements.Finally,two principles of safety and rationality for the self-evolution of autonomous driving are proposed.A motion envelope is established and embedded into a rational exploration and exploitation scheme,which filters out unreasonable experiences by masking unsafe actions so as to collect high-quality training data for the DRL agent.Experiments with a high-fidelity vehicle model and MATLAB/Simulink co-simulation environment are conducted,and the results show that the proposed online-evolution framework is able to generate safer,more rational,and more efficient driving action in a real-world environment.

An Efficient IIoT-Based Smart Sensor Node for Predictive Maintenance of Induction Motors

Predictive maintenance is a vital aspect of the industrial sector,and the use of Industrial Internet of Things(IIoT)sensor nodes is becoming increasingly popular for detecting motor faults and monitoring motor conditions.An integrated approach for acquiring,processing,and wirelessly transmitting a large amount of data in predictive maintenance applications remains a significant challenge.This study presents an IIoT-based sensor node for industrial motors.The sensor node is designed to acquire vibration data on the radial and axial axes of the motor and utilizes a hybrid approach for efficient data processing via edge and cloud platforms.The initial step of signal processing is performed on the node at the edge,reducing the burden on a centralized cloud for processing data from multiple sensors.The proposed architecture utilizes the lightweight Message Queue Telemetry Transport(MQTT)communication protocol for seamless data transmission from the node to the local and main brokers.The broker’s bridging allows for data backup in case of connection loss.The proposed sensor node is rigorously tested on a motor testbed in a laboratory setup and an industrial setting in a rice industry for validation,ensuring its performance and accuracy in real-world industrial environments.The data analysis and results from both testbed and industrial motors were discussed using vibration analysis for identifying faults.The proposed sensor node is a significant step towards improving the efficiency and reliability of industrial motors through realtime monitoring and early fault detection,ultimately leading to minimized unscheduled downtime and cost savings.

An Ordinal Multi-Dimensional Classification(OMDC)for Predictive Maintenance

Predictive Maintenance is a type of condition-based maintenance that assesses the equipment's states and estimates its failure probability and when maintenance should be performed.Although machine learning techniques have been frequently implemented in this area,the existing studies disregard to the nat-ural order between the target attribute values of the historical sensor data.Thus,these methods cause losing the inherent order of the data that positively affects the prediction performances.To deal with this problem,a novel approach,named Ordinal Multi-dimensional Classification(OMDC),is proposed for estimating the conditions of a hydraulic system's four components by taking into the natural order of class values.To demonstrate the prediction ability of the proposed approach,eleven different multi-dimensional classification algorithms(traditional Binary Relevance(BR),Classifier Chain(CC),Bayesian Classifier Chain(BCC),Monte Carlo Classifier Chain(MCC),Probabilistic Classifier Chain(PCC),Clas-sifier Dependency Network(CDN),Classifier Trellis(CT),Classifier Dependency Trellis(CDT),Label Powerset(LP),Pruned Sets(PS),and Random k-Labelsets(RAKEL))were implemented using the Ordinal Class Classifier(OCC)algorithm.Besides,seven different classification algorithms(Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Support Vector Machine(SVM),k-Nearest Neighbour(kNN),Decision Tree(C4.5),Bagging,Random Forest(RF),and Adaptive Boosting(AdaBoost))were chosen as base learners for the OCC algorithm.The experimental results present that the proposed OMDC approach using binary relevance multi-dimensional classification methods predicts the conditions of a hydraulic system's multiple components with high accuracy.Also,it is clearly seen from the results that the OMDC models that utilize ensemble-based classification algorithms give more reliable prediction performances with an average Hamming score of 0.853 than the others that use traditional algorithms as base learners.

Pavement performance model for road maintenance and repair planning: a review of predictive techniques

This paper provides a review of predictive analytics for roads,identifying gaps and limitations in current methodologies.It explores the implications of these limitations on accuracy and application,while also discussing how advanced predictive analytics can address these challenges.The article acknowledges the transformative shift brought about by technological advancements and increased computational capabilities.The degradation of pavement surfaces due to increased road users has resulted in safety and comfort issues.Researchers have conducted studies to assess pavement condition and predict future changes in pavement structure.Pavement Management Systems are crucial in developing prediction performance models that estimate pavement condition and degradation severity over time.Machine learning algorithms,artificial neural networks,and regression models have been used,with strengths and weaknesses.Researchers generally agree on their accuracy in estimating pavement condition considering factors like traffic,pavement age,and weather conditions.However,it is important to carefully select an appropriate prediction model to achieve a high-quality prediction performance system.Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each model enables informed decisions for implementing prediction models that suit specific needs.The advancement of prediction models,coupled with innovative technologies,will contribute to improved pavement management and the overall safety and comfort of road users.

Condition-Based Maintenance Decision-Making for Equipment

At present, condition monitoring and fault diagnosis technology and their application in engineering have been widely studied. Relatively little attention has been paid to condition-based maintenance decision-making for equipment. In this paper,based on the decision-making policy in traditional condition-based maintenance,the connotation of condition-based maintenance for equipment was defined, and its characteristics were analyzed.Working contents of condition-based maintenance for equipment were provided,which were divided into three stages. The influence factors in condition-based maintenance for equipment were analyzed. The key links of equipment maintenance contents and decision-making process were proposed. The condition-based maintenance decision-making policy presented in this paper can provide a practical reference for equipment maintenance.

A Study on Maintenance Management and Maintenance Decision-Making Methods

By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the main popular maintenance modes, this paper analyses the relationship between maintenance modes, and gives a model of maintenance decision-making. The model can be used in enterprises to minimize life cycle cost (LCC).

Performance prediction of expressway pavement in high maintenance level areas based on cosine deterioration equation: A case study of Zhejiang Province in China

Accurate prediction of performance decay law is an important basis for long-term planning of maintenance strategy.The statistical regression prediction model is the most widely employed method to calculate pavement performance due to its advantages such as the small amount of calculation and good accuracy,but the traditional prediction model seems not applicable to the high maintenance level areas with excellent pavement conditions.In this paper,the service life and the cumulative number of the axle load were determined as the independent variables of prediction models of pavement performance.The pavement condition index(PCI)and rutting depth index(RDI)were selected as maintenance decision control indexes to establish the unified prediction model of PCI and RDI respectively by applying the cosine deterioration equation.Results reveal that the deterioration law of PCI presents an anti-S type or concave type and the deterioration law of RDI shows an obvious concave type.The prediction model proposed in this study added the pavement maintenance standard factor d,which brings the model parameterα(reflecting the road life)and the deterioration equations are more applicable than the traditional standard equations.It is found that the fitting effects of PCI and RDI prediction models with different traffic grades are relatively similar to the actual service state of the pavements.

Reliability-based Maintenance Optimization under Imperfect Predictive Maintenance

The reliability-based maintenance optimization model has been focused by the engineers and scholars but it has never been solved effectively to formulate the effect of a maintenance action on the optimization model. In existing works, the system reliability was assumed to be increased to 1 after a predictive maintenance. However, it is very difficult in the most practical systems. Therefore, a new reliability-based maintenance optimization model under imperfect predictive maintenance (PM) is proposed in this paper. In the model, the system reliability is only restored to R i (0<R i <1, i∈N, N is natural number set) after the ith PM. The system uptimes and the corresponding probability in two cases whether there is an unexpected fault in one cycle are derived respectively and the system expected uptime model is given. To formulate the system expected downtime, the probability of each imperfect PM number in one cycle is calculated. Then, the system expected total time model is obtained. The total expected long-term operation cost is composed of the expected maintenance cost, the expected loss due to the downtime and the expected additional cost due to the occurrence of an unexpected failure. They are modeled respectively in this work. Jointing the system expected total time and long-term operation cost in one cycle, the expected long-term operation cost per time could be computed. Then, the proposed maintenance optimization model is formulated where the objective function is to minimize the expected long-term operation cost per time. The results of numerical example show that the proposed model could scheme the optimal maintenance actions for the considered system when the required parameters are given and the optimal solution of the proposed model is sensitive to the parameters of effective age model and insensitive to other parameters. The proposed model effectively solves the problem of evaluating the effect of an imperfect PM on the system reliability and presents a more practical optimization method for the reliability-based maintenance strategy than the existing works.

A Dynamic Maintenance Strategy for Multi-Component Systems Using a Genetic Algorithm

In multi-component systems,the components are dependent,rather than degenerating independently,leading to changes inmaintenance schedules.In this situation,this study proposes a grouping dynamicmaintenance strategy.Considering the structure of multi-component systems,the maintenance strategy is determined according to the importance of the components.The strategy can minimize the expected depreciation cost of the system and divide the system into optimal groups that meet economic requirements.First,multi-component models are grouped.Then,a failure probability model of multi-component systems is established.The maintenance parameters in each maintenance cycle are updated according to the failure probability of the components.Second,the component importance indicator is introduced into the grouping model,and the optimization model,which aimed at a maximum economic profit,is established.A genetic algorithm is used to solve the non-deterministic polynomial(NP)-complete problem in the optimization model,and the optimal grouping is obtained through the initial grouping determined by random allocation.An 11-component series and parallel system is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy,and the influence of the system structure and the parameters on the maintenance strategy is discussed.

A Risk-Averse Remaining Useful Life Estimation for Predictive Maintenance

Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is an advanced technique for system maintenance scheduling.Most of existing RUL prediction methods are only interested in the precision of RUL estimation;the adverse impact of overestimated RUL on maintenance scheduling is not of concern.In this work,an RUL estimation method with risk-averse adaptation is developed which can reduce the over-estimation rate while maintaining a reasonable under-estimation level.The proposed method includes a module of degradation feature selection to obtain crucial features which reflect system degradation trends.Then,the latent structure between the degradation features and the RUL labels is modeled by a support vector regression(SVR)model and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network,respectively.To enhance the prediction robustness and increase its marginal utility,the SVR model and the LSTM model are integrated to generate a hybrid model via three connection parameters.By designing a cost function with penalty mechanism,the three parameters are determined using a modified grey wolf optimization algorithm.In addition,a cost metric is proposed to measure the benefit of such a risk-averse predictive maintenance method.Verification is done using an aero-engine data set from NASA.The results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed RUL estimation method and the predictive maintenance strategy.

Condition-Based Diagnostic Approach for Predicting the Maintenance Requirements of Machinery

Wise maintenance-procedures are essential for achieving high industrial productivities and low energy expenditure. A major part of the energy used in any production process is expended during the maintenance of the employed equipment. To ensure plant reliability and equipment availability, a condition-based maintenance policy has been developed in this investigation. In particular, this project explored the use of vibration parameters in the diagnosis of equipment failure. A computer-based diagnostic tool employing an artificial neural-network (ANN) was developed to analyse the ensuing machinery faults, their causes and consequences. For various categories of this type of machinery, a vibration-severity chart (ISO 12372 / BS 4675: 1971) appropriately colour coded according to defined mechanical faults, was used in training of the ANN. The model was validated using data obtained from a centrifugal pump on full load and fed into the program written in Visual Basic. The results revealed that, for centrifugal pumps within 15 to 300kw power range, vibration-velocity amplitude of between 0.9 and 2.7mm/s was within acceptable limits. When the values rose to between 2.8 and 7.0mm/s, closer monitoring and improved understanding of the equipment condition was needed. The evolved diagnostic and prognostic model is applicable for other rotary equipment that is used within the same power limits.

Clinical study of predicting the occurrence and development of coronary heart disease by FT3 level in maintenance hemodialysis patients

Objective:To investigate the clinical significance of FT3 level in predicting the occurrence and development of coronary heart disease in maintenance hemodialysis patients.Methods:95 Patients who underwent maintenance hemodialysis in our hospital from January 2016 to December 2017 were selected as subjects. According to whether has coronary heart disease was divided into coronary heart disease group and non coronary heart disease group, the difference of FT3 level and related laboratory indexes was observed. ROC curve analysis and COX multiple factor risk regression were used to analyze the predictive value of FT3 level on the occurrence and development of heart disease in MHD patients.Results:The concentration of FT3, Hb and ALB in CHD group was lower than that of non-CHD group (P<0.05), and the content of TG, TC, LDL-C, Hcy and Hs-CRP were significantly higher than that of non-CHD group (P<0.05). FT3 was positively correlated with Hb and ALB (T=0.821, 0.809,P<0.05), and was negatively correlated with TG, TC, LDL-C, Hcy and Hs-CRP (T=- 0.814, - 0.843, - 0.904, - 0.806, - 0.912,P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area of AUC of FT3 was the highest, 0.864 (95%, CI:0.803~0.935), the sensitivity and specificity was 86.5% and 89.3% respectively. The area of combined diagnosis of AUC was 0.904 (95%CI:0.867~0.976), the sensitivity and specificity was 85.6% and 94.5%, respectively. After analyzing the COX risk regression model and correcting the above laboratory indicators, FT3 is an independent risk factor (HR: 0.58, 95%, CI: 0.41~0.72,P<0.05) for the adverse prognosis of MHD patients with coronary heart disease.Conclusion:It is of high clinical value to predict the development of coronary heart disease in MHD patients by FT3 level, and its mechanism may be related to the reduction of thyroxine synthesis, inflammatory reaction and atherosclerosis.

Predictive Maintenance of Manned Spacecraft Through Remaining Useful Life Estimation Technique

Manned spacecraft pose challenges in terms of extremely high safety and reliability, and with the growth of system complexity and longer on-orbit operation time, the traditional management mode, such as monitoring the threshold of parameter passively, is difficult to meet the required safety standards. Predictive maintenance, which analyzes the system heath trend and estimates remaining useful life(RUL) to establish maintenance strategies ahead of time before failure occurs, is a new mode to approach maintenance tasks. Here, a predictive maintenance strategy for complex manned spacecraft is proposed based on the remaining useful life estimation technique. Firstly, a health index is established based on an abundance of telemetry data, reflecting the system's current health state. Secondly, we map the health index to the remaining useful life through system degradation modelling, taking into consideration both the system's stochastic deterioration and uncertainty. The maintenance and management strategies are then made based on the calculated distribution of RUL time. Finally, a case study on Chinese space station energy system predictive maintenance is presented.

Methodologies on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and determining the net energy contents of feed ingredients in swine:a review of recent work

In the past two decades, a considerable amount of research has focused on the determination of the digestible(DE) and metabolizable energy(ME) contents of feed ingredients fed to swine. Compared with the DE and ME systems, the net energy(NE) system is assumed to be the most accurate estimate of the energy actually available to the animal. However, published data pertaining to the measured NE content of ingredients fed to growing pigs are limited. Therefore, the Feed Data Group at the Ministry of Agricultural Feed Industry Centre(MAFIC) located at China Agricultural University has evaluated the NE content of many ingredients using indirect calorimetry. The present review summarizes the NE research works conducted at MAFIC and compares these results with those from other research groups on methodological aspect. These research projects mainly focus on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and its impact on the determination, prediction, and validation of the NE content of several ingredients fed to swine. The estimation of maintenance energy is affected by methodology, growth stage,and previous feeding level. The fasting heat production method and the curvilinear regression method were used in MAFIC to estimate the NE requirement for maintenance. The NE contents of different feedstuffs were determined using indirect calorimetry through standard experimental procedure in MAFIC. Previously generated NE equations can also be used to predict NE in situations where calorimeters are not available. Although popular, the caloric efficiency is not a generally accepted method to validate the energy content of individual feedstuffs. In the future,more accurate and dynamic NE prediction equations aiming at specific ingredients should be established, and more practical validation approaches need to be developed.

An estimation method for direct maintenance cost of aircraft components based on particle swarm optimization with immunity algorithm

A particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm improved by immunity algorithm (IA) was presented. Memory and self-regulation mechanisms of IA were used to avoid PSO plunging into local optima. Vaccination and immune selection mechanisms were used to prevent the undulate phenomenon during the evolutionary process. The algorithm was introduced through an application in the direct maintenance cost (DMC) estimation of aircraft components. Experiments results show that the algorithm can compute simply and run quickly. It resolves the combinatorial optimization problem of component DMC estimation with simple and available parameters. And it has higher accuracy than individual methods, such as PLS, BP and v-SVM, and also has better performance than other combined methods, such as basic PSO and BP neural network.

Are there new approaches for diagnosis, therapy guidance and outcome prediction of sepsis?

Beside many efforts to improve outcome, sepsis is still one of the most frequent causes of death in critically ill patients. It is the most common condition with high mortality in intensive care units. The complexity of the septic syndrome comprises immunological aspects- i.e.,sepsis induced immunosuppression- but is not restricted to this fact in modern concepts. So far, exact mechanisms and variables determining outcome and mortality stay unclear. Since there is no typical risk profile, early diagnosis and risk stratification remain difficult, which hinders rapid and effective treatment initiation. Due to the heterogeneous nature of sepsis, potential therapy options should be adapted to the individual. Biomarkers like C-reactive protein and procalcitonin are routinely used as complementary tools in clinical decision-making. Beyond the acute phase proteins, a wide bunch of promising substances and non-laboratory tools with potential diagnostic and prognostic value is under intensive investigation. So far, clinical decision just based on biomarker assessment is not yet feasible. However, biomarkers should be considered as a complementary approach.

Equipment Maintenance Mode Based on Network Environment

Aimed at the actuality of Peoplep's Liberation Army(PLA) army equipment maintenance, this paper develops equipment maintenance mode based on network,and focuses on the design of maintenance decision-making system. Analyzing maintenance weight is applied to making decision of repair level.The purpose of the research is introducing basic concept and setting up an equipment maintenance mode using military network.Maintenance mode based on network can reduce the costs,enhance the maintenance efficiency, and save the human resource and finance.

A Fuzzy Logic-Based Modeling Method of Deciding Maintenance Policies

To make equipment maintenance policies more suitable to real operations, a fuzzy logic-based modeling method of deciding maintenance policies was proposed in this paper. Five maintenance policies which are built with downtime and breakdown frequency as decision criteria are discussed. To decide efficiently maintenance policies, the decision criteria are divided into low, medium, and high levels. On the basis of the levels, fuzzy sets and membership functions of the decision criteria are established with a fuzzy logic theory. A fuzzy logic algorithm of solving overall degree of satisfaction is presented to select the most efficient maintenance policy for equipment. Finally, the modeling method is tested. Experiment results show that the proposed method can solve efficiently problems of the traditional decision-making bias, and it is more valid and practical than the method of traditional decision-making grid (DMG).