Assessment of early factors for identification or prediction severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy(APIP)is a rare and serious condition,and severe APIP(SAPIP)can lead to pancreatic necrosis,abscess,multiple organ dysfunction,and other adverse maternal and infant outcomes.Therefore,early identification or prediction of SAPIP is important.AIM To assess factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.METHODS The clinical data of patients with APIP were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were classified with mild acute pancreatitis or severe acute pancreatitis,and the clinical characteristics and laboratory biochemical indexes were compared between the two groups.Logical regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to assess the efficacy of the factors for identification or prediction of SAPIP.RESULTS A total of 45 APIP patients were enrolled.Compared with the mild acute pancreatitis group,the severe acute pancreatitis group had significantly increased(P<0.01)heart rate(HR),hemoglobin,neutrophil ratio(NEUT%),and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio(NLR),while lymphocytes were significantly decreased(P<0.01).Logical regression analysis showed that HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count differed significantly(P<0.01)between the groups.These may be factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.The area under the curve of HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was 0.748,0.732,0.821,and 0.774,respectively.The combined analysis showed that the area under the curve,sensitivity,and specificity were 0.869,90.5%,and 70.8%,respectively.CONCLUSION HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count can be used for early identification or prediction of SAPIP,and the combination of the four factors is expected to improve identification or prediction of SAPIP.

Carbon Emission Factors Prediction of Power Grid by Using Graph Attention Network

Advanced carbon emission factors of a power grid can provide users with effective carbon reduction advice,which is of immense importance in mobilizing the entire society to reduce carbon emissions.The method of calculating node carbon emission factors based on the carbon emissions flow theory requires real-time parameters of a power grid.Therefore,it cannot provide carbon factor information beforehand.To address this issue,a prediction model based on the graph attention network is proposed.The model uses a graph structure that is suitable for the topology of the power grid and designs a supervised network using the loads of the grid nodes and the corresponding carbon factor data.The network extracts features and transmits information more suitable for the power system and can flexibly adjust the equivalent topology,thereby increasing the diversity of the structure.Its input and output data are simple,without the power grid parameters.We demonstrated its effect by testing IEEE-39 bus and IEEE-118 bus systems with average error rates of 2.46%and 2.51%.

Predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy bleeding risks

Objective:This study aimed to identify predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PCNL)bleeding risks.With better risk stratification,bleeding in high-risk patient can be anticipated and facilitates early identification.Methods:A prospective observational study of PCNL performed at our institution was done.All adults with radio-opaque renal stones planned for PCNL were included except those with coagulopathy,planned for additional procedures.Factors including gender,co-morbidities,body mass index,stone burden,puncture site,tract dilatation size,operative position,surgeon's seniority,and operative duration were studied using stepwise multivariate regression analysis to identify the predictive factors associated with higher estimated hemoglobin(Hb)deficiency.Results:Overall,4.86%patients(n=7)received packed cells transfusion.The mean estimated Hb deficiency was 1.3(range 0-6.5)g/dL and the median was 1.0 g/dL.Stepwise multivariate regression analysis revealed that absence of hypertension(p=0.024),puncture site(p=0.027),and operative duration(p=0.023)were significantly associated with higher estimated Hb deficiency.However,the effect sizes are rather small with partial eta-squared of 0.037,0.066,and 0.038,respectively.Observed power obtained was 0.621,0.722,and 0.625,respectively.Other factors studied did not correlate with Hb difference.Conclusion:Hypertension,puncture site,and operative duration have significant impact on estimated Hb deficiency during PCNL.However,the effect size is rather small despite adequate study power obtained.Nonetheless,operative position(supine or prone),puncture number,or tract dilatation size did not correlate with Hb difference.The mainstay of reducing bleeding in PCNL is still meticulous operative technique.Our study findings also suggest that PCNL can be safely done by urology trainees under supervision in suitably selected patient,without increasing risk of bleeding.

Predictive Factors of Renal Damage during Sickle Cell Disease at the Hematology-Oncology Department of Donka University Hospital

Introduction: Sickle cell disease, which is the most common hereditary hemoglobinopathy in the world, attacks all body systems, particularly the kidneys. The view of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of kidney damage during sickle cell disease. Materials and methods: It was a retrospective, descriptive and analytical study on files of sickle cell patients hospitalized in the Hematology-Oncology Department of Donka University Hospital during a period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019. Records of sickle cell patients with one or more renal abnormalities were retained. Sickle cell patients without kidney damage were also selected for a comparative study. Only patients without sickle cell disease were excluded. Results: Seventy-five (75) medical records were collected during the study period. From these cases, thirteen (13) records with kidney disease were observed, a frequency of 17%. The mean age of patients was 24.2 years for extremes of 10 and 65 years. The sex ratio was 1.6 in favor of men. The SSFA2 form was the most represented with 92%. 24-hour proteinuria was measured in 13 patients between whom 6 patients (46.2%) had a proteinuria level ≤ 1 g. Eight (8) patients (61.5%) were in stage 1 of chronic kidney disease. The most common type of renal involvement was tubulo-interstitial nephropathy with 8 patients (61.5%). Bivariate analysis showed that elevated serum creatinine (P 2 form of the sickness (P Conclusion: After the observation of an increased serum creatinine and urea, a predominance observation of the SSFA2 form, it should be possible to target patients for whom screening for kidney damage should henceforth be systematic.

Predictive Factors for Pre-Eclampsia: A Case-Control Study in Two Hospitals in Yaounde

Introduction: Pre-eclampsia is a major cause of maternal and prenatal morbidity and mortality, that complicates 2% to 8% of pregnancies worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive factors for pre-eclampsia in two hospitals in the city of Yaoundé. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at the Gynaecology & Obstetrics department of the Yaoundé Gynaeco-Obstetric and Paediatric Hospital (YGOPH) and the Main Maternity of the Yaoundé Central Hospital (MM-YCH) from February 1 to July 30, 2022. The cases were all pregnant women presenting with pre-eclampsia. The control group included pregnant women without pre-eclampsia. Descriptive statistics followed by logistic regression analyses were conducted with level of significance set at p-value Results: Included in the study were 33 cases and 132 controls, giving a total of 165 participants. The predictive factors for pre-eclampsia after multivariate analysis were: primiparity (aOR = 51.86, 95% CI: 3.01 - 1230.96, p = 0.045), duration of exposure to partner’s sperm Conclusion: The odds of pre-eclampsia increased with primiparity, duration of exposure to partner’s sperm < 3 months, personal history of pre-eclampsia and maternal history of pre-eclampsia. Recognition of these predictor factors would improve the ability to diagnose and monitor women likely to develop pre-eclampsia before the onset of disease for timely interventions.

Navigating breast cancer brain metastasis:Risk factors,prognostic indicators,and treatment perspectives

In this editorial,we comment on the article by Chen et al.We specifically focus on the risk factors,prognostic factors,and management of brain metastasis(BM)in breast cancer(BC).BC is the second most common cancer to have BM after lung cancer.Independent risk factors for BM in BC are:HER-2 positive BC,triplenegative BC,and germline BRCA mutation.Other factors associated with BM are lung metastasis,age less than 40 years,and African and American ancestry.Even though risk factors associated with BM in BC are elucidated,there is a lack of data on predictive models for BM in BC.Few studies have been made to formulate predictive models or nomograms to address this issue,where age,grade of tumor,HER-2 receptor status,and number of metastatic sites(1 vs>1)were predictive of BM in metastatic BC.However,none have been used in clinical practice.National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends screening of BM in advanced BC only when the patient is symptomatic or suspicious of central nervous system symptoms;routine screening for BM in BC is not recommended in the guidelines.BM decreases the quality of life and will have a significant psychological impact.Further studies are required for designing validated nomograms or predictive models for BM in BC;these models can be used in the future to develop treatment approaches to prevent BM,which improves the quality of life and overall survival.

Predictive Factors for the Occurrence of Pharyngostoma after Laryngectomy and Total Pharyngo-Laryngectomy in Yaounde and Douala

Introduction and Aims: Pharyngostoma or pharyngo-cutaneous fistula is a frequent complication of totals laryngectomies and pharyngo-laryngectomies. Its incidence varies from one series to another from 13% to 58%. Multiple risk factors are known. The data from our environment concerning this condition are few. Thus, in order to contribute to the study of this complication in our environment, we proposed to carry out this study, whose objective was to determine the predictive factors for the occurrence of pharyngo-cutaneous fistula or pharyngostoma after total laryngectomy and total pharyngo-laryngectomy in Yaounde and Douala. Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted in the 5 Ear-Nose-Throat (ENT) department of hospital in the city of Yaounde and Douala. The study took place between January 2009 and December 2020. All patients who underwent total laryngectomy or total pharyngo-laryngectomy with a follow-up of at least one month were included in the study. Incomplete records were excluded, as well as those of patients who died before one month of postoperative follow-up. Results: We selected 48 cases of total laryngectomies (TL) and total pharyngo-laryngectomies (TPL), and identified 37 cases of pharyngostoma. 45 men (93.8%) and 3 women (6.3%). The mean age was 56.4 years with extremes ranging from 37 to 86 years. Smoking and alcoholism were noted in 75% and 79.2% of our patients respectively. A tracheotomy before TL and TPL was found in 41.7%. 100% of the tumours found were T3 or T4. The surgery was in 34 cases (70.8%) TL and in 14 cases (29.2%) TPL. Pharyngostomas were observed in 37 cases among 48 patients operated on, i.e. a frequency of 77.1%. The average delay of appearance was 7 to 14 days. We had spontaneous healing with pressure dressing and nasogastric tube feeding in 35 patients (77.8%) and two patients benefited from pectoralis major flap treatment;the healing time was 21 to 30 days. We did not find any correlation between gender, age, tumour site of origin and locoregional extension and the occurrence of pharyngostoma. Preoperative tracheotomy and radiotherapy were not significant risk factors for the occurrence of pharyngostoma. However, preoperative anaemia (p = 0.02), LTP (p = 0.02), early complications (p 0.001) and lack of continuous saliva aspiration postoperatively (p = 0.03) were statistically significant predictors of pharyngostoma in univariate analysis. Conclusion: Pharyngostoma is the most common postoperative complication after TL and TPL. In our setting, the main associated risk factors identified were: preoperative anaemia, LTP, early complications and failure to continuously aspirate saliva postoperatively.

Diabetes mellitus in patients with type 1 autoimmune pancreatitis at diagnosis and after corticosteroid therapy

Background:A high prevalence of diabetes mellitus(DM)coexisting with autoimmune pancreatitis(AIP)is observed.However,evidence on the circumstances under which corticosteroid therapy(CST)for AIP improves or worsens DM is scarce.This study aimed to demonstrate and identify predictors of DM control under the influence of CST.Methods:Patients diagnosed with type 1 AIP were enrolled from a prospectively maintained cohort and were classified into three groups according to the chronology in which AIP and DM were diagnosed:pre-existing DM(pDM),concurrent DM(cDM),and non-DM(nDM).The responses of DM to CST were assessed when corticosteroid was ceased or tapered to a maintenance dose and classified as‘improvement’and‘non-improvement’(including‘no change’and‘exacerbation’).Results:Among 101 patients with type 1 AIP,52(51.5%)patients were complicated with DM at the time of AIP diagnosis,with 36 patients in the cDM group and 16 patients in the pDM group.The incidences of diffuse pancreatic swelling(72.2%)and pancreatic body/tail involvement(91.7%)were significantly higher in the cDM group than in both the pDM and nDM groups.Of the 52 patients with DM,CST was administered in 48 cases.Multivariate logistic analysis identified that elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase(GGT)level at AIP diagnosis[odds ratio(OR)=0.032,95%confidence interval(CI):0.003-0.412,P=0.008]and pancreatic atrophy after CST(OR=0.027,95%CI:0.003-0.295,P=0.003)were negatively associated with DM control improvement.Conclusions:Patients with diffuse pancreatic swelling and pancreatic body/tail involvement in pancreatitis tended to be complicated with cDM at AIP diagnosis.CST exerted a beneficial effect on the clinical course of DM in nearly half of the AIP patients complicated with DM at diagnosis,particularly in those without elevated serum GGT levels at diagnosis and who did not experience pancreatic atrophy after CST.

Nomogram to predict severe retinopathy of prematurity in Southeast China

AIM:To define the predictive factors of severe retinopathy of prematurity(ROP)and develop a nomogram for predicting severe ROP in southeast China.METHODS:Totally 554 infants diagnosed with ROP hospitalized in the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and hospitalized in Taizhou Women and Children’s Hospital were included.Clinical data and 43 candidate predictive factors of ROP infants were collected retrospectively.Logistic regression model was used to identify predictive factors of severe ROP and to propose a nomogram for individual risk prediction,which was compared with WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model.RESULTS:Infants from the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University(n=478)were randomly allocated into training(n=402)and internal validation group(n=76).Infants from Taizhou Women and Children’s Hospital were set as external validation group(n=76).Severe ROP were found in 52 of 402 infants,12 of 76 infants,and 7 of 76 infants in training group,internal validation group,and external validation group,respectively.Birth weight[odds ratio(OR),0.997;95%confidence interval(CI),0.996-0.999;P<0.001],multiple births(OR,1.885;95%CI,1.013-3.506;P=0.045),and non-invasive ventilation(OR,0.288;95%CI,0.146-0.570;P<0.001)were identified as predictive factors for the prediction of severe ROP,by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.For predicting severe ROP based on the internal validation group,the areas under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was 78.1(95%CI,64.2-92.0)for the nomogram,32.9(95%CI,15.3-50.5)for WINROP model,70.2(95%CI,55.8-84.6)for Digirop-Birth model.In external validation group,AUC of the nomogram was also higher than that of WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model(80.2 versus 51.1 and 63.4).The decision curve analysis of the nomogram demonstrated better clinical efficacy than that of WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model.The calibration curves demonstrated a good consistency between the actual severe ROP incidence and the predicted probability.CONCLUSION:Birth weight,multiple births,and noninvasive ventilation are independent predictors of severe ROP.The nomogram has a good ability to predict severe ROP and performed well on internal validation and external validation in southeast China.

Predictors of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Following Traumatic Injuries

Objective After traumatic injury in pregnant women,providing timely and appropriate management for high-risk patients is crucial for both pregnant women and fetuses.This study aimed to identify risk factors that predict adverse pregnancy outcomes after traumatic injury.Methods A retrospective cohort study including 317 pregnant patients who experienced trauma was conducted.The collected data included general demographics,injury mechanisms and adverse pregnancy outcomes.Patients were divided into two subgroups based on the absence or presence of trauma-related adverse pregnancy outcomes.Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to estimate the associations between clinical variables and adverse pregnancy outcomes.Results A total of 41(12.93%)patients experienced adverse pregnancy outcomes within the first 24 h post-trauma.This study revealed that age>35 years(OR=14.995,95%CI:5.024–44.755,P<0.001),third trimester trauma(OR=3.878,95%CI:1.343–11.204,P=0.012),abdominal pain(OR=3.032,95%CI:1.221–7.527,P=0.017),vaginal bleeding(OR=3.226,95%CI:1.093–9.523,P=0.034),positive scan in focused assessment with sonography for trauma(FAST)positive(OR=8.496,95%CI:2.825–25.555,P<0.001),9≤injury severity score(ISS)<16(OR=3.039,95%CI:1.046–8.835,P=0.041)and ISS≥16(OR=5.553,95%CI:1.387–22.225,P=0.015)increased the probability of posttraumatic adverse pregnancy outcomes.Maternal age,gestational age at delivery,vaginal bleeding and positive FAST results were risk factors for abnormal delivery.Conclusion Advanced maternal age,third trimester,and positive FAST results should alert multidisciplinary trauma teams to closely monitor patients to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Periodontitis:An often-neglected complication of diabetes

The bidirectional association between type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)and periodontitis is now well established,resulting in periodontal disease being considered as the 6th major complication of diabetes mellitus(DM)after cardiovascular disease,eye disease,neuropathy,nephropathy,and peripheral vascular disease.DM can worsen the virulence and invasiveness of pathogenic oral microbial flora aggravating the local inflammation and infection in those with periodontal disease.On the other hand,the chemical and immunological mediators released into the circulation as part of periodontal inflammation worsen the systemic insulin resistance with worsening of T2DM.Periodontitis if undiagnosed or left untreated can also result in eventual tooth loss.A study by Xu et al in the World Journal of Diabetes examined the predictive factors associated with periodontitis in Chinese patients with T2DM.The prevalence of periodontitis was found to be 75.7%in this study.Based on logistic regression analysis,the predictive factors for higher risk were low tooth brushing frequency[odds ratio(OR)=4.3],high triglycerides(TG;OR=3.31),high total cholesterol(TC;OR=2.87),higher glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c;OR=2.55),and higher age(OR=1.05)while higher education level was protective(OR=0.53).However,the most influential variables were HbA1c followed by age,TC,TG,low education level,brushing frequency,and sex on the random forest model(this model showed higher sensitivity for predicting the risk).A good understanding of the predictors for periodontitis in T2DM patients is important in prevention,early detection of susceptible patients,and intervention to improve periodontal health and enable long-term glycaemic control as observed by Xu et al.

Factors affecting recurrence after surgery for Crohn's disease

Although in Crohn's disease post-operative recurrence is common, the determinants of disease recurrence remain speculative. The aim of this study was to examine factors affecting post-operative recurrence of Crohn's disease. A Medline-based literature review was carried out. The following factors were investigated: age at onset of disease, sex, family history of Crohn's disease,smoking, duration of Crohn's disease before surgery,prophylactic medical treatment (corticosteroids, 5-amino salicylic acid [5-ASA] and immunosuppressants),anatomical site of involvement, indication for surgery (perforating or non-perforating disease), length of resected bowel, anast-omotic technique, presence of granuloma in the specimen, involvement of disease at the resection margin, blood transfusions and postoperative complications. Smoking significantly increases the risk of recurrence (risk is approximately twice as high), especially in women and heavy smokers. Quitting smoking reduces the post-operative recurrence rate. A number of studies have shown a higher risk when the duration of the disease before surgery was short. There were, however, different definitions of 'short' among the studies. Prophylactic cortic-osteroids therapy is not effective in reducing the post-operative recurrence. A number of randomized controlled trials offered evidence of the efficacy of 5-ASA (mesalazine) in reducing post-operative recurrence. Recently, the thera-peutic efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs (azathioprine and 6-mercaptopurine) in the prevention of post-operative recurrence has been investigated and several studies have reported that these drugs might help prevent the recurrence. Further clinical trials would be necessary to evaluate the prophylactic efficacy of immunosuppressants.Several studies showed a higher recurrence rate in patients with perforating disease than in those with non-perforating disease. However, evidence for differing recurrence rates in perforating and non-perforating diseases is inconclusive.A number of retrospective studies reported that a stapled functional end-to-end anastomosis was associated with a lower recurrence rate compared with other types of anastomosis. However, prospective randomized studies would be necessary to draw a definite conclusion. Many studies found no difference in the recurrence rates between patients with radical resection and non-radical resection. Therefore, minimal surgery including strictureplasty has been justified in the management of Crohn's disease. In this review, the following factors do not seem to be predictive of post-operative recurrence:age at onset of disease, sex, family history of Crohn's disease, anatomical site of disease, length of resected bowel, presence of granuloma in the specimen, blood transfusions and post-operative complications. The most significant factor affecting post-operative recurrence of Crohn's disease is smoking. Smoking significantly increases the risk of recurrence. A short disease duration before surgery seems, albeit to a very minor degree, to be associated with a higher recurrence rate. 5-ASA has been shown with some degree of confidence to lead to a lower recurrence rate. The prophylactic efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs should be assessed in future.A wider anastomotic technique after resection may reduce the post-operative recurrence rate, though this should be investigated with prospective randomized controlled trials.

Predictive factors of survival in patients treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell esophageal carcinoma

AIM： The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive factors of survival in patients with locally advanced squamous cell esophageal carcinoma （LASCOC） treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy （CRT） regimen based on the 5FU/CDDP combination. METHODS： All patients with LASCOC treated with a definitive CRT using the 5FU/CDDP combination between 1994 and 2000 were retrospectively included. Clinical complete response （CCR） to CRT was assessed by esophageal endoscopy and C-F-scan 2 mo after CRT completion. Prognostic factors of survival were assessed using univariate and multivariate analysis by the Cox regression model. RESULTS： A total of 116 patients were included in the study. A CCR to CRT was observed in 86/116 （74.1%）. The median survival was 20 mo （range 2-114） and the 5-year survival was 9.4%. Median survival of responder patients to CRT was 25 mo （range 3-114） as compared to 9 mo （range 2-81） in non-responder patients （P 〈 0.001）. In univariate analysis, survival was associated with CCR （P 〈 0.001）, WHO performance status 〈 2 （P = 0.01）, tumour length 〈 6 cm （P = 0.045） and weight loss 〈 10% was in limit of significance （P = 0.053）. In multivariate analysis, survival was dependant to CCR （P 〈 0.0001）, weight loss 〈 10% （P = 0.034） and WHO performance 〈 2 （P = 0.046）. CONCLUSION： Our results suggest that survival in patients with LASCOC b＇eated with definitive CRT was correlated to CCR, weight loss and WHO performance status.

Evolution and predictive factors of thyroid disorder due to interferon alpha in the treatment of hepatitis C

AIM： To study predictive factors of thyroid dysfunction associated with interferon-alpha （IFNa） therapy in chronic hepatitis C （CHC） and to describe its long-term evolution in a large population without previous thyroid dysfunction. METHODS： We performed a follow-up of thyroid function and detection of thyroid antibodies in 301 patients treated for CHC with IFNα from 1999 to 2004. RESULTS： Thyroid disorder developed in 30/301 （10%） patients with a mean delay of 6 ± 3.75 mo： 13 patients had hyperthyroidism, 11 had hypothyroidism, and 6 had biphasic evolution. During a mean follow-up of 41.59 ± 15.39 mo, 9 patients with hyperthyroidism, 3 with hypothyroidism, and 4 with biphasic evolution normalized thyroid function in 7.88 ± 5.46 mo. Recovery rate of dysthyroidism was not modified by treatment discontinuation, but was better for patients with negative thyroid antibodies before antiviral treatment （P = 0.02）. Women had significantly more dysthyroidism （P = 0.05）. Positive thyroid peroxidase and thyroglobulin antibodies were more frequent before antiviral treatment in patients who developed dysthyroidism （P 〈 0.0003 and P = 0.0003, respectively）. In a multivariate model, low fibrosis was found to be a predictive factor of dysthyroidism （P = 0.039）.CONCLUSION： In this monocentric population of CHC, dysthyroidism, especially hyperthyroidism, developed in 10% of patients, Low fibrosis was found to be a predictive factor of dysthyroidism, Thyroid disorder recovered in 16/30 patients （53%） and recovery was better in the non-autoimrnune form,

Predictive factors of endoscopic submucosal dissection procedure time for gastric superficial neoplasia

AIM:To identify the determinants of endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD) operation time.METHODS:This investigation was conducted as a single-center,prospective study in which ESD was performed by the same endoscopist at the Chinese PLA General Hospital.A total of 173 patients underwent ESD operations performed by Dr.Lu from July 2007 to December 2011,and 183 lesions were enrolled.Patient gender,age,tumor location,gross type,tumor size,pathological type and adhesions were recorded prospectively.The order of treatment represented the experience of the operator.Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to evaluate the relationships between these factors and ESD procedure time.RESULTS:Univariate analysis showed the ESD time was closely related to the gender(P = 0.0210),tumor size(P < 0.0001),location(P < 0.0001),gross type(P < 0.0001) and adhesion(P = 0.0010).The surgical proficiency level was associated with ESD time in unit area(P < 0.0001).Multivariate analysis revealed that the ESD time was positively correlated with tumor size(P < 0.0001),adhesion(P < 0.0001) and location(P < 0.0001),but negatively correlated with surgical proficiency level(P = 0.0046).CONCLUSION:Large tumor size,adjacency to the cardia,and adhesion are predictors of a long ESD time,whereas high surgical proficiency level predicts a short ESD time.

Total and not bevacizumab-bound vascular endothelial growth factor as potential predictive factors to bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in colorectal cancer

AIM: To identify suitable biomarkers of response to bevacizumab(BV)- it remains an open question. The measurement of serum vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF) has been proposed as a predictive factor for this drug, even if literature data are contradictory. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the role of BV, total and not BV-bound VEGF and angiopoietin-2(Ang-2) serum levels as potential predictive factors of response for BV in combination with an oxaliplatinbased chemotherapy. BV, Ang-2, total and not BVbound VEGF levels were measured at baseline, before 2^(nd) and 5^(th) cycle of oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy in 20 consecutive metastatic colorectal cancer patients. RESULTS: Results were correlated to response to treatment. Variability in BV levels have been found, with decreased level in less responding patients. In particular, the concentration of BV increased of 3.96 ± 0.69 folds in serum of responsive patients after 3 more cycles of therapy compared to those with stable or progressive disease with a 0.72 ± 0.25 and 2.10 ± 0.13 fold increase, respectively. The determination of free and total VEGF demonstrated that the ratio between the two values, evaluated immediately before the 2^(nd) and the 5^(th) cycle of therapy, decreased from 26.65% ± 1.33% to 15.50% ± 3.47% in responsive patients and from 53.41% ± 4.75 to 34.95% ± 2.88% in those with stable disease. Conversely, in those with progression of disease, the ratio showed the opposite behavior coming up from 25.99% ± 5.23% to 51.71% ± 5.28%. The Ang-2 levels did not show any relationship. CONCLUSION: Our data show that the ratio of not BV-bound VEGF to total VEGF serum and BV plasma concentrations for predicting the response to BV plus oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy could be a promising biomarker of response to BV.

Prognostic factors and predictors of postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization benefit in patients with resected hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) has improved overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).However,the prognostic and predictive factors remain unclear.AIM To assess the prognostic factors and the predictors of PA-TACE benefit for OS in patients with resected HCC.METHODS Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the potential prognostic factors for OS.In order to assess the predictive factors of PA-TACE benefit,the interaction variables between treatments for each subgroup were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.RESULTS A total of 378 patients (PA-TACE vs surgery alone,189:189) from three centerswere included after a propensity-score 1:1 matching analysis.Compared to the group receiving surgery alone,PA-TACE prolonged the OS rate in patients with resected HCC (P <0.001).The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system and ferritinto-hemoglobin ratio (FHR) were used as the prognostic factors for OS in both groups.Age (P=0.023) and microscopic vascular invasion (MVI)(P=0.002) were also identified in the PA-TACE group,while gender (P=0.027),hepatitis B virus(P=0.034) and albumin-bilirubin grade (P=0.027) were also selected in the surgery alone group.In addition,PA-TACE resulted in longer OS than surgery alone across subgroups [all hazard ratios (PA-TACE-to-surgery alone)<1].Notably,a significantly prolonged OS following PA-TACE was observed in patients with high FHR (P=0.038) and without MVI (P=0.048).CONCLUSION FHR and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages were regarded as prognostic factors for OS.Moreover,high FHR and the absence of MVI were important predictive factors,which can be used to assist clinicians in selecting which patients could achieve a better OS with PA-TACE.

Factors Related to Prognosis of Refractory Glaucoma with Diode Laser Transscleral Cyclophotocoagulation Treatment

Objective To evaluate the predictive factors of refractory glaucoma treated with diode laser transscleral cyclophotocoagulation(TSCP) in a midterm observation.Methods Fifty-four consecutive patients(54 eyes) with refractory glaucoma were enrolled and underwent TSCP(power of 1.5-2.0 W,exposure time of 2 seconds and 20-50 applications).Patients were regularly followed up for 12 months.Intraocular pressure(IOP) was measured before TSCP treatment and at each follow-up visit.Patients were divided into the sensitive and insensitive groups according to the effect of a single treatment of TSCP on IOP.The success rate was defined as the percentage of eyes achieving an IOP between 5 and 21 mm Hg following TSCP therapy at their final follow up visit.Difference of age between the sensitive and insensitive groups was evaluated with Independent-samples T test and that of gender distribution of two groups was evaluated with Fisher's exact test.The success rate of different types of glaucoma to TSCP was calculated.Results A total of 32 patients were sensitive to TSCP(sensitive group) and 22 patients were insensitive to TSCP(insensitive group).The success rates of female(77.8%,14/18) and cases being over 50 years(71.4%,20/28) were higher than those of male(50.0%,18/36) and ones being under 50 years(46.2%,12/26)(all P>0.05).The age of the sensitive and insensitive groups was 56.0±15.5 and 46.4±15.4 years,respectively(P=0.029).The age(P=0.029) and gender distribution(P=0.046) of the two groups had significant difference.The success rate of neovascular glaucoma,primary angle-closure glaucoma,primary open angle glaucoma,traumatic glaucoma,uveitic glaucoma,and secondary glaucoma after silicone oil injection to TSCP was 57.1%,100.0%,50.0%,20.0%,81.8%,and 0%,respectively.Conclusion Age,gender,and type of glaucoma appear to be associated with effect of TSCP on IOP control.

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-instent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction

AIM To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents(SEMSs). METHODS This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP) procedures between the two groups.RESULTS The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices(ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve(sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. CONCLUSION A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement.

On indexing in the Web of Science and predicting journal impact factor

We discuss what document types account for the calculation of the journal impact factor （JIF） as published in the Journal Citation Reports （JCR）. Based on a brief review of articles discussing how to predict JIFs and taking data differences between the Web of Science （WoS） and the JCR into account, we make our own predictions. Using data by cited-reference searching for Thomson Scientific＇s WoS, we predict 2007 impact factors （1Fs） for several journals, such as Nature, Science, Learned Publishing and some Library and Information Sciences journals. Based on our colleagues＇ experiences we expect our predictions to be lower bounds for the official journal impact factors. We explain why it is useful to derive one＇s own journal impact factor.