Assessment of early factors for identification or prediction severe acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis in pregnancy(APIP)is a rare and serious condition,and severe APIP(SAPIP)can lead to pancreatic necrosis,abscess,multiple organ dysfunction,and other adverse maternal and infant outcomes.Therefore,early identification or prediction of SAPIP is important.AIM To assess factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.METHODS The clinical data of patients with APIP were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were classified with mild acute pancreatitis or severe acute pancreatitis,and the clinical characteristics and laboratory biochemical indexes were compared between the two groups.Logical regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed to assess the efficacy of the factors for identification or prediction of SAPIP.RESULTS A total of 45 APIP patients were enrolled.Compared with the mild acute pancreatitis group,the severe acute pancreatitis group had significantly increased(P<0.01)heart rate(HR),hemoglobin,neutrophil ratio(NEUT%),and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio(NLR),while lymphocytes were significantly decreased(P<0.01).Logical regression analysis showed that HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count differed significantly(P<0.01)between the groups.These may be factors for early identification or prediction of SAPIP.The area under the curve of HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was 0.748,0.732,0.821,and 0.774,respectively.The combined analysis showed that the area under the curve,sensitivity,and specificity were 0.869,90.5%,and 70.8%,respectively.CONCLUSION HR,NEUT%,NLR,and lymphocyte count can be used for early identification or prediction of SAPIP,and the combination of the four factors is expected to improve identification or prediction of SAPIP.

Predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy bleeding risks

Objective:This study aimed to identify predictive factors for percutaneous nephrolithotomy(PCNL)bleeding risks.With better risk stratification,bleeding in high-risk patient can be anticipated and facilitates early identification.Methods:A prospective observational study of PCNL performed at our institution was done.All adults with radio-opaque renal stones planned for PCNL were included except those with coagulopathy,planned for additional procedures.Factors including gender,co-morbidities,body mass index,stone burden,puncture site,tract dilatation size,operative position,surgeon's seniority,and operative duration were studied using stepwise multivariate regression analysis to identify the predictive factors associated with higher estimated hemoglobin(Hb)deficiency.Results:Overall,4.86%patients(n=7)received packed cells transfusion.The mean estimated Hb deficiency was 1.3(range 0-6.5)g/dL and the median was 1.0 g/dL.Stepwise multivariate regression analysis revealed that absence of hypertension(p=0.024),puncture site(p=0.027),and operative duration(p=0.023)were significantly associated with higher estimated Hb deficiency.However,the effect sizes are rather small with partial eta-squared of 0.037,0.066,and 0.038,respectively.Observed power obtained was 0.621,0.722,and 0.625,respectively.Other factors studied did not correlate with Hb difference.Conclusion:Hypertension,puncture site,and operative duration have significant impact on estimated Hb deficiency during PCNL.However,the effect size is rather small despite adequate study power obtained.Nonetheless,operative position(supine or prone),puncture number,or tract dilatation size did not correlate with Hb difference.The mainstay of reducing bleeding in PCNL is still meticulous operative technique.Our study findings also suggest that PCNL can be safely done by urology trainees under supervision in suitably selected patient,without increasing risk of bleeding.

Predictive Factors for Pre-Eclampsia: A Case-Control Study in Two Hospitals in Yaounde

Introduction: Pre-eclampsia is a major cause of maternal and prenatal morbidity and mortality, that complicates 2% to 8% of pregnancies worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive factors for pre-eclampsia in two hospitals in the city of Yaoundé. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at the Gynaecology & Obstetrics department of the Yaoundé Gynaeco-Obstetric and Paediatric Hospital (YGOPH) and the Main Maternity of the Yaoundé Central Hospital (MM-YCH) from February 1 to July 30, 2022. The cases were all pregnant women presenting with pre-eclampsia. The control group included pregnant women without pre-eclampsia. Descriptive statistics followed by logistic regression analyses were conducted with level of significance set at p-value Results: Included in the study were 33 cases and 132 controls, giving a total of 165 participants. The predictive factors for pre-eclampsia after multivariate analysis were: primiparity (aOR = 51.86, 95% CI: 3.01 - 1230.96, p = 0.045), duration of exposure to partner’s sperm Conclusion: The odds of pre-eclampsia increased with primiparity, duration of exposure to partner’s sperm < 3 months, personal history of pre-eclampsia and maternal history of pre-eclampsia. Recognition of these predictor factors would improve the ability to diagnose and monitor women likely to develop pre-eclampsia before the onset of disease for timely interventions.

Navigating breast cancer brain metastasis:Risk factors,prognostic indicators,and treatment perspectives

In this editorial,we comment on the article by Chen et al.We specifically focus on the risk factors,prognostic factors,and management of brain metastasis(BM)in breast cancer(BC).BC is the second most common cancer to have BM after lung cancer.Independent risk factors for BM in BC are:HER-2 positive BC,triplenegative BC,and germline BRCA mutation.Other factors associated with BM are lung metastasis,age less than 40 years,and African and American ancestry.Even though risk factors associated with BM in BC are elucidated,there is a lack of data on predictive models for BM in BC.Few studies have been made to formulate predictive models or nomograms to address this issue,where age,grade of tumor,HER-2 receptor status,and number of metastatic sites(1 vs>1)were predictive of BM in metastatic BC.However,none have been used in clinical practice.National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends screening of BM in advanced BC only when the patient is symptomatic or suspicious of central nervous system symptoms;routine screening for BM in BC is not recommended in the guidelines.BM decreases the quality of life and will have a significant psychological impact.Further studies are required for designing validated nomograms or predictive models for BM in BC;these models can be used in the future to develop treatment approaches to prevent BM,which improves the quality of life and overall survival.

Predictive Factors for the Occurrence of Pharyngostoma after Laryngectomy and Total Pharyngo-Laryngectomy in Yaounde and Douala

Introduction and Aims: Pharyngostoma or pharyngo-cutaneous fistula is a frequent complication of totals laryngectomies and pharyngo-laryngectomies. Its incidence varies from one series to another from 13% to 58%. Multiple risk factors are known. The data from our environment concerning this condition are few. Thus, in order to contribute to the study of this complication in our environment, we proposed to carry out this study, whose objective was to determine the predictive factors for the occurrence of pharyngo-cutaneous fistula or pharyngostoma after total laryngectomy and total pharyngo-laryngectomy in Yaounde and Douala. Patients and Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted in the 5 Ear-Nose-Throat (ENT) department of hospital in the city of Yaounde and Douala. The study took place between January 2009 and December 2020. All patients who underwent total laryngectomy or total pharyngo-laryngectomy with a follow-up of at least one month were included in the study. Incomplete records were excluded, as well as those of patients who died before one month of postoperative follow-up. Results: We selected 48 cases of total laryngectomies (TL) and total pharyngo-laryngectomies (TPL), and identified 37 cases of pharyngostoma. 45 men (93.8%) and 3 women (6.3%). The mean age was 56.4 years with extremes ranging from 37 to 86 years. Smoking and alcoholism were noted in 75% and 79.2% of our patients respectively. A tracheotomy before TL and TPL was found in 41.7%. 100% of the tumours found were T3 or T4. The surgery was in 34 cases (70.8%) TL and in 14 cases (29.2%) TPL. Pharyngostomas were observed in 37 cases among 48 patients operated on, i.e. a frequency of 77.1%. The average delay of appearance was 7 to 14 days. We had spontaneous healing with pressure dressing and nasogastric tube feeding in 35 patients (77.8%) and two patients benefited from pectoralis major flap treatment;the healing time was 21 to 30 days. We did not find any correlation between gender, age, tumour site of origin and locoregional extension and the occurrence of pharyngostoma. Preoperative tracheotomy and radiotherapy were not significant risk factors for the occurrence of pharyngostoma. However, preoperative anaemia (p = 0.02), LTP (p = 0.02), early complications (p 0.001) and lack of continuous saliva aspiration postoperatively (p = 0.03) were statistically significant predictors of pharyngostoma in univariate analysis. Conclusion: Pharyngostoma is the most common postoperative complication after TL and TPL. In our setting, the main associated risk factors identified were: preoperative anaemia, LTP, early complications and failure to continuously aspirate saliva postoperatively.

Diabetes mellitus in patients with type 1 autoimmune pancreatitis at diagnosis and after corticosteroid therapy

Background:A high prevalence of diabetes mellitus(DM)coexisting with autoimmune pancreatitis(AIP)is observed.However,evidence on the circumstances under which corticosteroid therapy(CST)for AIP improves or worsens DM is scarce.This study aimed to demonstrate and identify predictors of DM control under the influence of CST.Methods:Patients diagnosed with type 1 AIP were enrolled from a prospectively maintained cohort and were classified into three groups according to the chronology in which AIP and DM were diagnosed:pre-existing DM(pDM),concurrent DM(cDM),and non-DM(nDM).The responses of DM to CST were assessed when corticosteroid was ceased or tapered to a maintenance dose and classified as‘improvement’and‘non-improvement’(including‘no change’and‘exacerbation’).Results:Among 101 patients with type 1 AIP,52(51.5%)patients were complicated with DM at the time of AIP diagnosis,with 36 patients in the cDM group and 16 patients in the pDM group.The incidences of diffuse pancreatic swelling(72.2%)and pancreatic body/tail involvement(91.7%)were significantly higher in the cDM group than in both the pDM and nDM groups.Of the 52 patients with DM,CST was administered in 48 cases.Multivariate logistic analysis identified that elevated serum gamma-glutamyl transferase(GGT)level at AIP diagnosis[odds ratio(OR)=0.032,95%confidence interval(CI):0.003-0.412,P=0.008]and pancreatic atrophy after CST(OR=0.027,95%CI:0.003-0.295,P=0.003)were negatively associated with DM control improvement.Conclusions:Patients with diffuse pancreatic swelling and pancreatic body/tail involvement in pancreatitis tended to be complicated with cDM at AIP diagnosis.CST exerted a beneficial effect on the clinical course of DM in nearly half of the AIP patients complicated with DM at diagnosis,particularly in those without elevated serum GGT levels at diagnosis and who did not experience pancreatic atrophy after CST.

Nomogram to predict severe retinopathy of prematurity in Southeast China

AIM:To define the predictive factors of severe retinopathy of prematurity(ROP)and develop a nomogram for predicting severe ROP in southeast China.METHODS:Totally 554 infants diagnosed with ROP hospitalized in the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University and hospitalized in Taizhou Women and Children’s Hospital were included.Clinical data and 43 candidate predictive factors of ROP infants were collected retrospectively.Logistic regression model was used to identify predictive factors of severe ROP and to propose a nomogram for individual risk prediction,which was compared with WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model.RESULTS:Infants from the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children’s Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University(n=478)were randomly allocated into training(n=402)and internal validation group(n=76).Infants from Taizhou Women and Children’s Hospital were set as external validation group(n=76).Severe ROP were found in 52 of 402 infants,12 of 76 infants,and 7 of 76 infants in training group,internal validation group,and external validation group,respectively.Birth weight[odds ratio(OR),0.997;95%confidence interval(CI),0.996-0.999;P<0.001],multiple births(OR,1.885;95%CI,1.013-3.506;P=0.045),and non-invasive ventilation(OR,0.288;95%CI,0.146-0.570;P<0.001)were identified as predictive factors for the prediction of severe ROP,by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.For predicting severe ROP based on the internal validation group,the areas under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was 78.1(95%CI,64.2-92.0)for the nomogram,32.9(95%CI,15.3-50.5)for WINROP model,70.2(95%CI,55.8-84.6)for Digirop-Birth model.In external validation group,AUC of the nomogram was also higher than that of WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model(80.2 versus 51.1 and 63.4).The decision curve analysis of the nomogram demonstrated better clinical efficacy than that of WINROP model and Digirop-Birth model.The calibration curves demonstrated a good consistency between the actual severe ROP incidence and the predicted probability.CONCLUSION:Birth weight,multiple births,and noninvasive ventilation are independent predictors of severe ROP.The nomogram has a good ability to predict severe ROP and performed well on internal validation and external validation in southeast China.

Predictors of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Following Traumatic Injuries

Objective After traumatic injury in pregnant women,providing timely and appropriate management for high-risk patients is crucial for both pregnant women and fetuses.This study aimed to identify risk factors that predict adverse pregnancy outcomes after traumatic injury.Methods A retrospective cohort study including 317 pregnant patients who experienced trauma was conducted.The collected data included general demographics,injury mechanisms and adverse pregnancy outcomes.Patients were divided into two subgroups based on the absence or presence of trauma-related adverse pregnancy outcomes.Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to estimate the associations between clinical variables and adverse pregnancy outcomes.Results A total of 41(12.93%)patients experienced adverse pregnancy outcomes within the first 24 h post-trauma.This study revealed that age>35 years(OR=14.995,95%CI:5.024–44.755,P<0.001),third trimester trauma(OR=3.878,95%CI:1.343–11.204,P=0.012),abdominal pain(OR=3.032,95%CI:1.221–7.527,P=0.017),vaginal bleeding(OR=3.226,95%CI:1.093–9.523,P=0.034),positive scan in focused assessment with sonography for trauma(FAST)positive(OR=8.496,95%CI:2.825–25.555,P<0.001),9≤injury severity score(ISS)<16(OR=3.039,95%CI:1.046–8.835,P=0.041)and ISS≥16(OR=5.553,95%CI:1.387–22.225,P=0.015)increased the probability of posttraumatic adverse pregnancy outcomes.Maternal age,gestational age at delivery,vaginal bleeding and positive FAST results were risk factors for abnormal delivery.Conclusion Advanced maternal age,third trimester,and positive FAST results should alert multidisciplinary trauma teams to closely monitor patients to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Periodontitis:An often-neglected complication of diabetes

The bidirectional association between type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)and periodontitis is now well established,resulting in periodontal disease being considered as the 6th major complication of diabetes mellitus(DM)after cardiovascular disease,eye disease,neuropathy,nephropathy,and peripheral vascular disease.DM can worsen the virulence and invasiveness of pathogenic oral microbial flora aggravating the local inflammation and infection in those with periodontal disease.On the other hand,the chemical and immunological mediators released into the circulation as part of periodontal inflammation worsen the systemic insulin resistance with worsening of T2DM.Periodontitis if undiagnosed or left untreated can also result in eventual tooth loss.A study by Xu et al in the World Journal of Diabetes examined the predictive factors associated with periodontitis in Chinese patients with T2DM.The prevalence of periodontitis was found to be 75.7%in this study.Based on logistic regression analysis,the predictive factors for higher risk were low tooth brushing frequency[odds ratio(OR)=4.3],high triglycerides(TG;OR=3.31),high total cholesterol(TC;OR=2.87),higher glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c;OR=2.55),and higher age(OR=1.05)while higher education level was protective(OR=0.53).However,the most influential variables were HbA1c followed by age,TC,TG,low education level,brushing frequency,and sex on the random forest model(this model showed higher sensitivity for predicting the risk).A good understanding of the predictors for periodontitis in T2DM patients is important in prevention,early detection of susceptible patients,and intervention to improve periodontal health and enable long-term glycaemic control as observed by Xu et al.

Prognostic factors and predictors of postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization benefit in patients with resected hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) has improved overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).However,the prognostic and predictive factors remain unclear.AIM To assess the prognostic factors and the predictors of PA-TACE benefit for OS in patients with resected HCC.METHODS Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the potential prognostic factors for OS.In order to assess the predictive factors of PA-TACE benefit,the interaction variables between treatments for each subgroup were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.RESULTS A total of 378 patients (PA-TACE vs surgery alone,189:189) from three centerswere included after a propensity-score 1:1 matching analysis.Compared to the group receiving surgery alone,PA-TACE prolonged the OS rate in patients with resected HCC (P <0.001).The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system and ferritinto-hemoglobin ratio (FHR) were used as the prognostic factors for OS in both groups.Age (P=0.023) and microscopic vascular invasion (MVI)(P=0.002) were also identified in the PA-TACE group,while gender (P=0.027),hepatitis B virus(P=0.034) and albumin-bilirubin grade (P=0.027) were also selected in the surgery alone group.In addition,PA-TACE resulted in longer OS than surgery alone across subgroups [all hazard ratios (PA-TACE-to-surgery alone)<1].Notably,a significantly prolonged OS following PA-TACE was observed in patients with high FHR (P=0.038) and without MVI (P=0.048).CONCLUSION FHR and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages were regarded as prognostic factors for OS.Moreover,high FHR and the absence of MVI were important predictive factors,which can be used to assist clinicians in selecting which patients could achieve a better OS with PA-TACE.

Predicting factors for the need of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for suicide attempts by cardiac medication:a single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND:Severe poisoning due to the overdosing of cardiac drugs can lead to cardiovascular failure.In order to decrease the mortality rate,the most severe patients should be transferred as quickly as possible to an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(ECMO)center.However,the predictive factors showing the need for venous-arterial ECMO(VA-ECMO)had never been evaluated.METHODS:A retrospective,descriptive,and single-center cohort study.All consecutive patients admitted in the largest ICU of Reunion Island(Indian Ocean)between January 2013 and September 2018 for beta-blockers(BB),calcium channel blockers(CCB),renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system blockers,digoxin or anti-arrythmic intentional poisonings were included.ECMO implementation was the primary outcome.RESULTS:A total of 49 consecutive admissions were included.Ten patients had ECMO,39 patients did not have ECMO.Three patients in ECMO group died,while no patients in the conventional group died.The most relevant ECMO-associated factors were pulse pressure and heart rate at first medical contact and pulse pressure,heart rate,arterial lactate concentration,liver enzymes and left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)at ICU-admission.Only pulse pressure at first medical contact and LVEF were significant after logistic regression.CONCLUSION:A transfer to an ECMO center should be considered for a pulse pressure<35 mmHg at first medical contact or LVEF<20%on admission to ICU.

Predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment after scleral buckling

AIM： To evaluate predictive factors for postoperative visual function of primary chronic rhegmatgenous retinal detachment （RRD） after sclera buckling （SB）. METHODS： Totally 48 patients （51 eyes） with primary chronic RRD were included in this prospective interventional clinical cases study, which underwent SB alone from June 2008 to December 2014. Age, sex, symptoms duration, detached extension, retinal hole position, size, type, fovea on/off, proliferative vitreoretinopathy （PVR）, posterior vitreous detachment （PVD）, baseline best corrected visual acuity （BCVA）, operative duration, follow up duration, final BCVA were measured. Pearson correlation analysis, Spearman correlation analysis and multivariate linear stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better final visual acuity. Student＇s t-test, Wilcoxon twosample test, Chi-square test and logistic stepwise regression were used to confirm predictive factors for better vision improvement. RESULTS： Baseline BCVA was 0.8313±0.6911 IogMAR and final BCVA was 0.4761 ±0.4956 IogMAR. Primary surgical success rate was 92.16% （47/51）. Correlation analyses revealed shorter symptoms duration （r =0.3850, P=0.0053）, less detached area （r=0.5489, P〈0.0001）, fovea （r=0.4605, P=0.0007）, no PVR （r=0.3138, P= 0.0250）, better baseline BCVA （r=0.7291, P〈0.0001）, shorter operative duration （r=0.3233, P=0.0207） and longer follow up （r=-0.3358, P=0.0160） were related with better final BCVA, while independent predictive factors were better baseline BCVA [partial R-square （PR2） = 0.5316, P〈0.0001], shorter symptoms duration （PR2= 0.0609, P=0.0101）, longer follow up duration （PR2=0.0278, P =0.0477） and shorter operative duration （PR2=0.0338, P=0.0350）. Patients with vision improvement took up 49.02% （25/51）. Univariate and multivariate analyses both revealed predictive factors for better vision improvement were better baseline vision [odds ratio （OR） =50.369, P= 0.0041] and longer follow up duration （OR=1.144, P= 0.0067）. CONCLUSION： Independent predictive factors for better visual outcome of primary chronic RRD after SB are better baseline BCVA, shorter symptoms duration, shorter operative duration and longer follow up duration, while independent predictive factors for better vision improvement after operation are better baseline vision and longer follow up duration.

Factors predicting upstaging from clinical N0 to pN2a/N3a in breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND With sentinel node metastasis in breast cancer(BC)patients,axillary lymph node(ALN)dissection is often omitted from cases with breast-conserving surgery.Omission of lymph node dissection reduces the invasiveness of surgery to the patient,but it also obscures the number of metastases to non-sentinel nodes.The possibility of finding≥4 lymph nodes(pN2a/pN3a)preoperatively is important given the ramifications for postoperative treatment.AIM To search for clinicopathological factors that predicts upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a.METHODS Patients who were sentinel lymph node(SLN)-positive and underwent ALN dissection between September 2007 and August 2018 were selected by retrospective chart review.All patients had BC diagnosed preoperatively as N0 with axillary evaluation by fluorodeoxyglucose(FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography and ultrasound (US)examination. When suspicious FDG accumulation was found in ALN, the presence of metastasiswas reevaluated by second US. We examined predictors of upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a.RESULTSAmong 135 patients, we identified 1-3 ALNs (pN1) in 113 patients and ³4 ALNs (pN2a/pN3a) in22 patients. Multivariate analysis identified the total number of SLN metastasis, the maximaldiameter of metastasis in the SLN (SLNDmax), and FDG accumulation of ALN as predictors ofupstaging to pN2a/pN3a.CONCLUSIONWe identified factors involved in upstaging from N0 to pN2a/pN3a. The SLNDmax and numberof SLN metastasis are predictors of ≥ 4 ALNs (pN2a/pN3a) and predictors of metastasis to nonsentinelnodes, which have been reported in the past. Attention should be given to axillaryaccumulations of FDG, even when faint.

Predictive Factors of Complications of Vaginal Delivery on Scarred Uterus at the YaoundéGynaeco-Obstetric and Paediatric Hospital

Objective: This study was aimed at identifying predictive factors of complications during vaginal delivery on scarred uterus. Methodology: During 9 months, from October 1st, 2015 to June 30th, 2016, a case control study was carried out at the Yaoundé Gynaeco-Obstetric and Pediatric Hospital. Eighty nine women each with a single scarred uterus who presented with complications during delivery (cases) were compared to eighty nine others who had a successfully trial of scar (control) during the study period. Data were analyzed using the CSPro version 6.0 and SPSS version 20.0 softwares with statistical significance set at P Results: We recruited 2 groups of 89 women, aged 17 to 40 years, with an average age of 29.05 years. The majority of women with complications were married (50.6%) and unemployed (42.8%). Following univariate analysis, predictive factors of complications were: prematurity (OR = 7.4), post-term (OR = 13.7), no history of vaginal delivery on scarred uterus (OR = 4.3), inter-pregnancy spacing period greater than 60 months (five years) (OR = 2.9), History of caesarian delivery indicated for cephalo-pelvic disproportion (OR = 6.6), less than four ante-natal consultations (OR = 3.6), antenatal consultations done in a Health Centre (OR = 2.7), ante-natal follow up conducted by a nurse (OR = 2.4;IC = [1.2 - 4.7]), referral from a different health unit (OR = 4.4, IC = 2.0 - 9.4), a Bishop score less than 7 on admission (OR = 12.4, IC = 5.6 - 27.4), a meconium stained amniotic fluid (OR = 9.9;CI = [3.6 - 26.8]). After logistic regression, the retained factors associated with complications were post-term (aOR = 34.5), absence of vaginal birth after caesarian delivery, (aOR = 11.7), previous caesarean section indicated for cephalo-pelvic disproportion (aOR = 6.1), a bishop score less than 7 (aOR = 12.0), meconium stained amniotic fluid (aOR = 13.6). Conclusion: Predictive factors of complications can help anticipate negative obstetric outcomes.

Carbon Emission Factors Prediction of Power Grid by Using Graph Attention Network

Advanced carbon emission factors of a power grid can provide users with effective carbon reduction advice,which is of immense importance in mobilizing the entire society to reduce carbon emissions.The method of calculating node carbon emission factors based on the carbon emissions flow theory requires real-time parameters of a power grid.Therefore,it cannot provide carbon factor information beforehand.To address this issue,a prediction model based on the graph attention network is proposed.The model uses a graph structure that is suitable for the topology of the power grid and designs a supervised network using the loads of the grid nodes and the corresponding carbon factor data.The network extracts features and transmits information more suitable for the power system and can flexibly adjust the equivalent topology,thereby increasing the diversity of the structure.Its input and output data are simple,without the power grid parameters.We demonstrated its effect by testing IEEE-39 bus and IEEE-118 bus systems with average error rates of 2.46%and 2.51%.

Prediction model for mercury transfer from soil to corn grain and its cross-species extrapolation

In this study the transfer characteristics of mercury（Hg） from a wide range of Chinese soils to corn grain（cultivar Zhengdan 958） were investigated. Prediction models were developed for determining the Hg bioconcentration factor（BCF） of Zhengdan 958 from soil, including the soil properties, such as p H, organic matter（OM） concentration, cation exchange capacity（CEC）, total nitrogen concentration（TN）, total phosphorus concentration（TP）, total potassium concentration（TK）, and total Hg concentration（THg）, using multiple stepwise regression analysis. These prediction models were applied to other non-model corn cultivars using a cross-species extrapolation approach. The results indicated that the soil p H was the most important factor associated with the transfer of Hg from soil to corn grain. Hg bioaccumulation in corn grain increased with the decreasing p H. No significant differences were found between two prediction models derived from different rates of Hg applied to the soil as HgCl2. The prediction models established in this study can be applied to other non-model corn cultivars and are useful for predicting Hg bioconcentration in corn grain and assessing the ecological risk of Hg in different soils.

Predictive factors associated with malignancy of intraductal papillary mucinous pancreatic neoplasms

AIM:To identify preoperative predictive factors associated with malignancy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms(IPMNs) of the pancreas.METHODS:Between April 1995 and April 2010,129 patients underwent surgical resection for IPMNs at our institute and had confirmed pathologic diagnoses.The medical records were retrospectively reviewed and immunohistochemical staining for mucin(MUC) in pancreatic tissues was performed.RESULTS:Univariate analysis showed that the following five variables were closely associated with malignant IPMNs preoperatively:absence of extrapancreatic malignancy;symptoms;tumor size > 4 cm;main pancreaticduct(MPD) size > 7 mm;and lymph node enlargement on preoperative computed tomography(CT).Multivariate analysis revealed that the following two factors were significantly associated with malignant IPMNs preoperatively:MPD size > 7 mm [odds ratio(OR) = 2.50];and lymph node enlargement on preoperative CT(OR = 3.57).No significant differences in the expression of MUC1,MUC2 and MUC5AC were observed between benign and malignant IPMNs.CONCLUSION:MPD size > 7 mm and preoperative lymph node enlargement on CT are useful predictive factors associated with malignancy of IPMNs.

Predictive factors associated with carcinoid syndrome in patients with gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors

AIM To discover unknown factors associated with carcinoid syndrome(CS) with the goal of earlier diagnosis of CS.METHODS In this retrospective case-control study using United States administrative claims, patients(≥ 18 years) newly-diagnosed with gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors(GI NETs) without CS(controls) were exactly matched to patients with CS(cases) based on NET diagnosis date at a 3-to-1 ratio. Study index date was first CS diagnosis(controls: same distance from NET diagnosis as cases). The most observed conditions, excluding CS-associated symptoms/diagnoses, during the year before index date were assessed. Forwardstepwise logistic regression models were used to derive predictors, and were validation within another claims database. RESULTS In the development database, 1004 patients with GI NETs were identified; 251(25%) had CS and 753(75%) were controls. In the validation database, 724 patients with GI NETs were identified; 181(25%) had CS and 543(75%) were controls. A total of 33 common diagnoses(excluding conditions already known to be associated with CS) in the development database were entered in forward step-wise logistic regression models. In the final, validated logistic regression model, three factors prior to CS diagnosis were found consistently associated with higher risks for CS, including liver disorder [odds ratio(95%CI): 3.38(2.07-5.51)], enlargement of lymph nodes [2.13(1.10-4.11)], and abdominal mass [3.79(1.87-7.69)].CONCLUSION GI NET patients with CS were 2-4 times as likely to have preexisting diagnoses(i.e., liver disorder, enlarged lymph nodes, abdominal mass) than non-CS patients.

A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

AIM：To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1（IGF-1）and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity（ROP）and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels.METHODS：The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants.IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life,1st,2nd,3rd and4th week of life was analyzed.The score was established after logistic regression analysis,considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP.A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated.RESULTS：Birth weights（BW）,gestational weeks（GW）and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower,respiratory distress syndrome（RDS）,bronchopulmonarydysplasia（BPD）and necrotizing enterocolitis（NEC）were more frequent,the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP（P〈0.05）.Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP.Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW（〈1250 g）,presence of intraventricular hemorrhage（IVH）and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP.Afterwards,the scoring system was validated on 107 infants.The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%,74.7%and 79.8%while positive predictive values were 76.3%,65.5%and71.6%respectively.CONCLUSION：In addition to BW〈1250 g and IVH,formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP.Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

Calculation of b value and its application in earthquake prediction

The improved calculation method of b value is presented in tills paper. The method can enlarge the role of earthquake occurrence frequency in b value calculation and thus increase the b value variation amplitude. In this case,the combination structure variation between earthquake magnitudes and corresponding frequencies could be shown clearly. According to the calculation and analysis for limited mainshocks in the complete seismicity data of selected monitored area with assigned consistent lowest magnitude, the precursor anomaly features, quantitative indexes and the calculation formula of relative subject function of b value variation have been preliminarily worked out. The prediction in short period (from 1 to 3 months) for damage earthquakes in the monitored area mentioned above can be put forward on the basis of the results of quantitative calculation and analysis.