Analysis of risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in patients with prostate cancer after castration and the construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND Cancer patients often suffer from severe stress reactions psychologically,such as anxiety and depression.Prostate cancer(PC)is one of the common cancer types,with most patients diagnosed at advanced stages that cannot be treated by radical surgery and which are accompanied by complications such as bodily pain and bone metastasis.Therefore,attention should be given to the mental health status of PC patients as well as physical adverse events in the course of clinical treatment.AIM To analyze the risk factors leading to anxiety and depression in PC patients after castration and build a risk prediction model.METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed on the data of 120 PC cases treated in Xi'an People's Hospital between January 2019 and January 2022.The patient cohort was divided into a training group(n=84)and a validation group(n=36)at a ratio of 7:3.The patients’anxiety symptoms and depression levels were assessed 2 wk after surgery with the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale(SAS)and the Selfrating Depression Scale(SDS),respectively.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting negative mood,and a risk prediction model was constructed.RESULTS In the training group,35 patients and 37 patients had an SAS score and an SDS score greater than or equal to 50,respectively.Based on the scores,we further subclassified patients into two groups:a bad mood group(n=35)and an emotional stability group(n=49).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative Visual Analogue Scale(VAS)score were independent risk factors affecting a patient's bad mood(P<0.05).In the training and validation groups,patients with adverse emotions exhibited significantly higher risk scores than emotionally stable patients(P<0.0001).The area under the curve(AUC)of the risk prediction model for predicting bad mood in the training group was 0.743,the specificity was 70.96%,and the sensitivity was 66.03%,while in the validation group,the AUC,specificity,and sensitivity were 0.755,66.67%,and 76.19%,respectively.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed aχ^(2) of 4.2856,a P value of 0.830,and a C-index of 0.773(0.692-0.854).The calibration curve revealed that the predicted curve was basically consistent with the actual curve,and the calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good discrimination and accuracy.Decision curve analysis showed that the model had a high net profit.CONCLUSION In PC patients,marital status,castration scheme,and postoperative pain(VAS)score are important factors affecting postoperative anxiety and depression.The logistic regression model can be used to successfully predict the risk of adverse psychological emotions.

Development and application of hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model based on clinical characteristics and liver related indexes

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is difficult to diagnose with poor therapeutic effect,high recurrence rate and has a low survival rate.The survival of patients with HCC is closely related to the stage of diagnosis.At present,no specific serolo-gical indicator or method to predict HCC,early diagnosis of HCC remains a challenge,especially in China,where the situation is more severe.AIM To identify risk factors associated with HCC and establish a risk prediction model based on clinical characteristics and liver-related indicators.METHODS The clinical data of patients in the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College from 2016 to 2020 were collected,using a retrospective study method.The results of needle biopsy or surgical pathology were used as the grouping criteria for the experimental group and the control group in this study.Based on the time of admission,the cases were divided into training cohort(n=1739)and validation cohort(n=467).Using HCC as a dependent variable,the research indicators were incorporated into logistic univariate and multivariate analysis.An HCC risk prediction model,which was called NSMC-HCC model,was then established in training cohort and verified in validation cohort.RESULTS Logistic univariate analysis showed that,gender,age,alpha-fetoprotein,and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II,gamma-glutamyl transferase,aspartate aminotransferase and hepatitis B surface antigen were risk factors for HCC,alanine aminotransferase,total bilirubin and total bile acid were protective factors for HCC.When the cut-off value of the NSMC-HCC model joint prediction was 0.22,the area under receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of NSMC-HCC model in HCC diagnosis was 0.960,with sensitivity 94.40%and specificity 95.35%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.966,with sensitivity 90.00%and specificity 94.20%in validation cohort.In early-stage HCC diagnosis,the AUC of NSMC-HCC model was 0.946,with sensitivity 85.93%and specificity 93.62%in training cohort,and AUC was 0.947,with sensitivity 89.10%and specificity 98.49%in validation cohort.CONCLUSION The newly NSMC-HCC model was an effective risk prediction model in HCC and early-stage HCC diagnosis.

Machine learning for carbonate formation drilling: Mud loss prediction using seismic attributes and mud loss records

Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.

Predicting Users’ Latent Suicidal Risk in Social Media: An Ensemble Model Based on Social Network Relationships

Suicide has become a critical concern,necessitating the development of effective preventative strategies.Social media platforms offer a valuable resource for identifying signs of suicidal ideation.Despite progress in detecting suicidal ideation on social media,accurately identifying individuals who express suicidal thoughts less openly or infrequently poses a significant challenge.To tackle this,we have developed a dataset focused on Chinese suicide narratives from Weibo’s Tree Hole feature and introduced an ensemble model named Text Convolutional Neural Network based on Social Network relationships(TCNN-SN).This model enhances predictive performance by leveraging social network relationship features and applying correction factors within a weighted linear fusion framework.It is specifically designed to identify key individuals who can help uncover hidden suicidal users and clusters.Our model,assessed using the bespoke dataset and benchmarked against alternative classification approaches,demonstrates superior accuracy,F1-score and AUC metrics,achieving 88.57%,88.75%and 94.25%,respectively,outperforming traditional TextCNN models by 12.18%,10.84%and 10.85%.We assert that our methodology offers a significant advancement in the predictive identification of individuals at risk,thereby contributing to the prevention and reduction of suicide incidences.

Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of pre-hospital delay in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND Acute myocardial infarction(AMI)is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the blockage of coronary arteries that leads to ischemic necrosis of the myocardium.Timely medical contact is critical for successful AMI treatment,and delays increase the risk of death for patients.Pre-hospital delay time(PDT)is a significant challenge for reducing treatment times,as identifying high-risk patients with AMI remains difficult.This study aims to construct a risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients and develop targeted strategies for effective and prompt care,ultimately reducing PDT and improving treatment outcomes.AIM To construct a nomogram model for forecasting pre-hospital delay(PHD)likelihood in patients with AMI and to assess the precision of the nomogram model in predicting PHD risk.METHODS A retrospective cohort design was employed to investigate predictive factors for PHD in patients with AMI diagnosed between January 2022 and September 2022.The study included 252 patients,with 180 randomly assigned to the development group and the remaining 72 to the validation group in a 7:3 ratio.Independent risk factors influencing PHD were identified in the development group,leading to the establishment of a nomogram model for predicting PHD in patients with AMI.The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the development and validation groups.RESULTS Independent risk factors for PHD in patients with AMI included living alone,hyperlipidemia,age,diabetes mellitus,and digestive system diseases(P<0.05).A characteristic curve analysis indicated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.787(95%confidence interval:0.716–0.858)and 0.770(95%confidence interval:0.660-0.879)in the development and validation groups,respectively,demonstrating the model's good discriminatory ability.The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed no statistically significant disparity between the anticipated and observed incidence of PHD in both development and validation cohorts(P>0.05),indicating satisfactory model calibration.CONCLUSION The nomogram model,developed with independent risk factors,accurately forecasts PHD likelihood in AMI individuals,enabling efficient identification of PHD risk in these patients.

Nomogram for predicting the risk of anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns

BACKGROUND Post-burn anxiety and depression affect considerably the quality of life and recovery of patients;however,limited research has demonstrated risk factors associated with the development of these conditions.AIM To predict the risk of developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns using a nomogram model.METHODS We enrolled 675 patients with burns who were admitted to The Second Affiliated Hospital,Hengyang Medical School,University of South China between January 2019 and January 2023 and met the inclusion criteria.These patients were randomly divided into development(n=450)and validation(n=225)sets in a 2:1 ratio.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the risk factors associated with post-burn anxiety and depression dia-gnoses,and a nomogram model was constructed.RESULTS Female sex,age<33 years,unmarried status,burn area≥30%,and burns on the head,face,and neck were independent risk factors for developing post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns.The nomogram model demonstrated predictive accuracies of 0.937 and 0.984 for anxiety and 0.884 and 0.923 for depression in the development and validation sets,respectively,and good predictive per-formance.Calibration and decision curve analyses confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.CONCLUSION The nomogram model predicted the risk of post-burn anxiety and depression in patients with non-mild burns,facilitating the early identification of high-risk patients for intervention and treatment.

Navigating breast cancer brain metastasis:Risk factors,prognostic indicators,and treatment perspectives

In this editorial,we comment on the article by Chen et al.We specifically focus on the risk factors,prognostic factors,and management of brain metastasis(BM)in breast cancer(BC).BC is the second most common cancer to have BM after lung cancer.Independent risk factors for BM in BC are:HER-2 positive BC,triplenegative BC,and germline BRCA mutation.Other factors associated with BM are lung metastasis,age less than 40 years,and African and American ancestry.Even though risk factors associated with BM in BC are elucidated,there is a lack of data on predictive models for BM in BC.Few studies have been made to formulate predictive models or nomograms to address this issue,where age,grade of tumor,HER-2 receptor status,and number of metastatic sites(1 vs>1)were predictive of BM in metastatic BC.However,none have been used in clinical practice.National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends screening of BM in advanced BC only when the patient is symptomatic or suspicious of central nervous system symptoms;routine screening for BM in BC is not recommended in the guidelines.BM decreases the quality of life and will have a significant psychological impact.Further studies are required for designing validated nomograms or predictive models for BM in BC;these models can be used in the future to develop treatment approaches to prevent BM,which improves the quality of life and overall survival.

A male-ABCD algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction in HBs Ag carriers

Objective: Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) development among hepatitis B surface antigen(HBs Ag) carriers shows gender disparity, influenced by underlying liver diseases that display variations in laboratory tests. We aimed to construct a risk-stratified HCC prediction model for HBs Ag-positive male adults.Methods: HBs Ag-positive males of 35-69 years old(N=6,153) were included from a multi-center populationbased liver cancer screening study. Randomly, three centers were set as training, the other three centers as validation. Within 2 years since initiation, we administrated at least two rounds of HCC screening using Bultrasonography and α-fetoprotein(AFP). We used logistic regression models to determine potential risk factors,built and examined the operating characteristics of a point-based algorithm for HCC risk prediction.Results: With 2 years of follow-up, 302 HCC cases were diagnosed. A male-ABCD algorithm was constructed including participant's age, blood levels of GGT(γ-glutamyl-transpeptidase), counts of platelets, white cells,concentration of DCP(des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin) and AFP, with scores ranging from 0 to 18.3. The area under receiver operating characteristic was 0.91(0.90-0.93), larger than existing models. At 1.5 points of risk score,26.10% of the participants in training cohort and 14.94% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk, with sensitivity of identifying HCC remained 100%. At 2.5 points, 46.51% of the participants in training cohort and 33.68% in validation cohort were recognized at low risk with 99.06% and 97.78% of sensitivity, respectively. At 4.5 points, only 20.86% of participants in training cohort and 23.73% in validation cohort were recognized at high risk,with positive prediction value of 22.85% and 12.35%, respectively.Conclusions: Male-ABCD algorithm identified individual's risk for HCC occurrence within short term for their HCC precision surveillance.

A risk prediction score model for predicting occurrence of post-PCI vasovagal reflex syndrome： a single center study in Chinese population

Background The vasovagal reflex syndrome （VVRS） is common in the patiems undergoing percutaneous coronary intervemion （PCI） However, prediction and prevention of the risk for the VVRS have not been completely fulfilled. This study was conducted to develop a Risk Prediction Score Model to identify the determinants of VVRS in a large Chinese population cohort receiving PCI. Methods From the hos- pital electronic medical database, we idemified 3550 patients who received PCI （78.0% males, mean age 60 years） in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 1, 2000 to August 30, 2016. The multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic 01OC） analysis were performed. Results The adverse events of VVRS in the patients were significantly increased after PCI procedure than before the operation （all P 〈 0.001）. The rate of VVRS [95% confidence interval （CI）] in patients receiving PCI was 4.5% （4.1%-5.6%）. Compared to the patients suffering no VVRS, incidence of VVRS involved the following factors, namely female gender, primary PCI, hypertension, over two stems im- plantation in the left anterior descending （LAD）, and the femoral puncture site. The multivariate analysis suggested that they were independ- ent risk factors for predicting the incidence of VVRS （all P 〈 0.001）. We developed a risk prediction score model for VVRS. ROC analysis showed that the risk prediction score model was effectively predictive of the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI （c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI： 0.72-0.79, P 〈 0.001）. There were decreased evems of VVRS in the patients receiving PCI whose diastolic blood pressure dropped by more than 30 mmHg and heart rate reduced by 10 times per minute （AUC： 0.84, 95% CI： 0.81-0.87, P 〈 0.001）. Conclusion The risk prediction score is quite efficient in predicting the incidence of VVRS in patients receiving PCI. In which, the following factors may be in- volved, the femoral puncture site, female gender, hypertension, primary PCI, and over 2 stents implanted in LAD.

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

Hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heaW burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.

Prediction of presence and severity of coronary artery disease using prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China scoring system

BACKGROUND Coronary artery disease(CAD)is one of the leading causes of death and disease burden in China and worldwide.A practical and reliable prediction scoring system for CAD risk and severity evaluation is urgently needed for primary prevention.AIM To examine whether the prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China(China-PAR)scoring system could be used for this purpose.METHODS A total of 6813 consecutive patients who underwent diagnostic coronary angiography were enrolled.The China-PAR score was calculated for each patient and CAD severity was assessed by the Gensini score(GS).RESULTS Correlation analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between China-PAR and GS(r=0.266,P<0.001).In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis,the cut-off values of China-PAR for predicting the presence and the severity of CAD were 7.55%with a sensitivity of 55.8%and specificity of 71.8%[area under the curve(AUC)=0.693,95%confidence interval:0.681 to 0.706,P<0.001],and 7.45%with a sensitivity of 58.8%and specificity of 67.2%(AUC=0.680,95%confidence interval:0.665 to 0.694,P<0.001),respectively.CONCLUSION The China-PAR scoring system may be useful in predicting the presence and severity of CAD.

Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine.

A Readmission Risk Prediction Model for Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors and establish a risk prediction model by investigating the readmission of elderly patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)within 1 year after discharge.Methods:A total of 480 CHD patients,who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University from October 2019 to December 2020,were included in this study.A general data scale,mental health status scale,the Clinical Frailty Scale,Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index,as well as the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Evaluation Scale were used to collect data.According to the number of readmissions due to CHD within 1 year after discharge,the patients were divided into two groups:the readmission group(n=212)and the no readmission group(n=268).General data,laboratory examination indicators,frailty,mental health status,sleep status,as well as family intimacy and adaptability were compared between the two groups.Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for the readmission of these patients,and R software was used to construct a line diagram model for predicting readmission of elderly patients with CHD.Results:Five factors including body mass index(OR=1.045),low density lipoprotein(OR=1.123),frailty(OR=1.946),mental health(OR=1.099),as well as family intimacy and adaptability(OR=0.928)were included to construct the risk prediction model for the readmission of elderly patients with CHD within 1 year after discharge.The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve for predicting readmission of elderly patients with CHD was 0.816;Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed X2=1.456 and P=0.989;the maximum Youden index corresponding to the predicted value of risk was 0.526.The results showed that the model could accurately predict the risk of readmission in elderly patients with CHD within 1 year after discharge.Conclusion:This study constructed a line diagram model based on five independent risk factors of the readmission of elderly patients with CHD:body mass index,low density lipoprotein,frailty,mental health status,as well as family intimacy and adaptability.This model has good discrimination,accuracy,and predictive efficiency,providing reference for the early prevention and intervention of readmission in elderly patients with CHD recurrence.

Risk Prediction of Aortic Dissection Operation Based on Boosting Trees

During the COVID-19 pandemic,the treatment of aortic dissection has faced additional challenges.The necessary medical resources are in serious shortage,and the preoperative waiting time has been significantly prolonged due to the requirement to test for COVID-19 infection.In this work,we focus on the risk prediction of aortic dissection surgery under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.A general scheme of medical data processing is proposed,which includes five modules,namely problem definition,data preprocessing,data mining,result analysis,and knowledge application.Based on effective data preprocessing,feature analysis and boosting trees,our proposed fusion decision model can obtain 100%accuracy for early postoperative mortality prediction,which outperforms machine learning methods based on a single model such as LightGBM,XGBoost,and CatBoost.The results reveal the critical factors related to the postoperative mortality of aortic dissection,which can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of clinical operation plans and help to effectively avoid risks in advance.

Deep Learning-Based Prediction of Traffic Accidents Risk for Internet of Vehicles

With the increasing number of vehicles,traffic accidents pose a great threat to human lives.Hence,aiming at reducing the occurrence of traffic accidents,this paper proposes an algorithm based on a deep convolutional neural network and a random forest to predict accident risks.Specifically,the proposed algorithm includes a feature extractor and a feature classifier,where the former extracts key features using a convolutional neural network and the latter outputs a probability value of traffic accidents using a random forest with multiple decision trees,which indicates the degree of accident risks.Simulations show that the proposed algorithm can achieve higher performance in terms of the Area Under the Curve(AUC)of the Receiver Characteristic Operator as well as accuracy than the existing algorithms based on the Adaboost or the pure convolutional neural networks.

Risk prediction of common bile duct stone recurrence based on new common bile duct morphological subtypes

Stones in the common bile duct(CBD) are reported worldwide, and this condition is majorly managed through endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP). CBD stone recurrence is an important issue after endoscopic stone removal. Therefore, it is essential to identify its risk factors to determine the necessity of regular follow-up in patients who underwent endoscopic removal of CBD stones. The authors identified that the S and polyline morphological subtypes of CBD were associated with increased stone recurrence. New morphological subtypes of CBD presented by the authors can be important risk predictors of recurrence after endoscopic stone removal. Furthermore, the new morphological subtypes of CBD may predict the risk of residual CBD stones or technical difficulty in CBD stone removal. Further studies with a large sample size and longer follow-up durations are warranted to examine the usefulness of the newly identified morphological subtypes of CBD in predicting the outcomes of ERCP for CBD stone removal.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Model on Adult Emergency Department Patients for Early Identification of Fulminant Myocarditis

Objective It is difficult to predict fulminant myocarditis at an early stage in the emergency department.The objective of this study was to construct and validate a simple prediction model for the early identification of fulminant myocarditis.Methods A total of 61 patients with fulminant myocarditis and 160 patients with acute myocarditis were enrolled in the training and internal validation cohorts.LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression were selected to develop the prediction model.The selection of the model was based on overall performance and simplicity.A nomogram based on the optimal model was built,and its clinical usefulness was evaluated by decision curve analysis.The predictive model was further validated in an external validation group.Results The resulting prediction model was based on 4 factors:systolic blood pressure,troponin I,left ventricular ejection fraction,and ventricular wall motion abnormality.The Brier scores of the final model were 0.078 in the training data set and 0.061 in the internal testing data set,respectively.The C-indexes of the training data set and the testing data set were 0.952 and 0.968,respectively.Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram model developed based on the 4 predictors above had a positive net benefit for predicting probability thresholds.In the external validation cohort,the model also showed good performance(Brier score=0.007,and C-index=0.989).Conclusion We developed and validated an early prediction model consisting of 4 clinical factors(systolic blood pressure,troponin I,left ventricular ejection fraction,and ventricular wall motion abnormality)to identify potential fulminant myocarditis patients in the emergency department.

The Anzhen Risk Scoring System for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection:A Prospective Observational Study Protocol

Introduction:Acute type A aortic dissection(ATAAD)is a catastrophic disease with fatal outcomes.Malperfusion syndrome(MPS)is a serious complication of ATAAD,with an incidence of 20–40%.Many studies have shown that MPS is the main risk factor for poor ATAAD prognosis.However,a risk scoring system for ATAAD based on MPS is lacking.Here,we designed a risk scoring system for ATAAD to assess mortality through quantitative assessment of relevant organ malperfusion and subsequently develop rational treatment strategies.Methods and analysis:This was a prospective observational study.Patients’perioperative clinical data were col-lected to establish a database of ATAAD(N≥3000)and determine whether these patients had malperfusion complica-tions.The Anzhen risk scoring system was established on the basis of organ malperfusion by using a random forest survival model and a logistics model.The better method was then chosen to establish a revised risk scoring system.Ethics and dissemination:This study received ethical approval from the Ethics Committees of Beijing Anzhen Hospital,Capital Medical University(KS2019034-1).Patient consent was waived because biological samples were not collected,and no patient rights were violated.Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and in peer-reviewed publications.

Risk factors of concurrent urinary sepsis in patients with diabetes mellitus comorbid with upper urinary tract calculi

BACKGROUND Urinary sepsis is frequently seen in patients with diabetes mellitus(DM)complicated with upper urinary tract calculi(UUTCs).Currently,the known risk factors of urinary sepsis are not uniform.AIM To analyze the risk factors of concurrent urinary sepsis in patients with DM complicated with UUTCs by logistic regression.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 384 patients with DM complicated with UUTCs treated in People’s Hospital of Jincheng between February 2018 and May 2022.The patients were screened according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,and 204 patients were enrolled.The patients were assigned to an occurrence group(n=78)and a nonoccurrence group(n=126).Logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for urinary sepsis,and a risk prediction model was established.RESULTS Gender,age,history of lumbago and abdominal pain,operation time,urine leukocytes(U-LEU)and urine glucose(U-GLU)were independent risk factors for patients with concurrent urinary sepsis(P<0.05).Risk score=0.794×gender+0.941×age+0.901×history of lumbago and abdominal pain-1.071×operation time+1.972×U-LEU+1.541×U-GLU.The occurrence group had notably higher risk scores than the nonoccurrence group(P<0.0001).The area under the curve of risk score for forecasting concurrent urinary sepsis in patients was 0.801,with specificity of 73.07%,sensitivity of 79.36%and Youden index of 52.44%.CONCLUSION Sex,age,history of lumbar and abdominal pain,operation time,ULEU and UGLU are independent risk factors for urogenic sepsis in diabetic patients with UUTC.