A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. U...A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.展开更多
In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that ...In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),and another one with low area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreating phase of the EASM. Besides, a new way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day(2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compared to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is low in weak years and high in strong years, which is relevant to the differences of correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and indentifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205040)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902)the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest,China(Grant No.GYHY201306021)
文摘A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4157508241530531+1 种基金41605048)Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(GYHY201306021)
文摘In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),and another one with low area-weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreating phase of the EASM. Besides, a new way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day(2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compared to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is low in weak years and high in strong years, which is relevant to the differences of correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and indentifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.
