Temporal-spatial Distribution and Short-range Prediction Indicators of Hail Weather in East Central Haixi Prefecture of Qinghai Province

[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss the temporal-spatial distribution and short-range prediction indicators of hail weather in east central Haixi Prefecture of Qinghai Province. [Method] Using hail data of six stations in east central Haixi Prefecture from 1960 to 2010, the temporal and spatial distribution of hail weather was analyzed firstly. Afterwards, based on the high-altitude factual data of 30 case studies of hail during 2006 -2010, its high-altitude and ground weather situation and physical quantity field were studied to summarize short-term circulation pattern and shod- range prediction characteristics of hail weather. [ Result] In east central Haixi, hail appeared from April to September, and it was most frequently from May to August. Meanwhile, hail was frequent from 14：00 to 20：00. Among the six stations, hail was most frequent in Tianjun but least frequent in Wulan. Moreover, hail disaster mainly occurred in Wulan and Tianjun. In addition, there were three typos of circulation pattern of hail weather at 500 hPa. Hail mainly occurred under the effect of northwest airflow, and it had shortwave trough, cold center or trough, jet stream core or one of the three. Hail appeared frequently under the situation of upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, and abundant water vapor and water vapor flux convergence at low levels were important conditions for hailing. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for improving the accuracy of hail forecast.

Research progress on the electrophysiological indicators to predict the efficacy of vagus nerve stimulation for drug-refractory epilepsy

Vagus nerve stimulation(VNS)is an important treatment option for drug-refractory epilepsy(DRE),with well-established efficacy and safety in clinical practice for more than 20 years.However,it is very difficult to find the optimal electrophysiological indicators for the effectiveness of VNS on DRE because the mechanism of action is unknown.In this review,we provide an update of the potential applications of VNS outcomes in patients with drug-resistant epilepsy.Electroencephalographic(EEG)activity,event-related potentials,EEG synchronization levels,magnetoencephalographic,laryngeal muscle evoked potentials,and heart rate variability are potential biomarkers for VNS outcomes in people with DRE.

Prediction of the geological indicators in TBM tunnel based on optimized proportion of surrounding rock grades

With tunnel boring machine being used in underground engineering,accurate geological indicators have been the important basis for tunnel boring machine(TBM)construction.Back propagation neural network(BPNN)has been used to predict the geological indicators of tunnels in previous studies.Nevertheless,these studies ignored the imbalance proportion of surrounding rock grades,leading to the indiscriminate use of data,thus affecting the predictive effect of BPNN.In order to prove the importance of the proportion of surround-ing rock grade in geological prediction,we mainly attempt to utilize particle swarm optimization(PSO)to optimize the proportion of sample data,and integrate with BPNN to establish a PSO-BPNN theoretical model to predict geological indicators.At the same time,combined with the actual engineering data,5 tunneling indicators were selected as input and 4 geological indicators were selected as out-put by a variety of dimensionality reduction methods.The geological indicators are density,uniaxial compressive strength,internal fric-tion angle(u)and Poisson’s ratio(e).On this basis,the PSO-BPNN prediction model was established in detail.By comparing the prediction of traditional BPNN,PSO-BPNN and other optimization-integrated models,the result shows that optimized proportion of surrounding rock grades reduces the prediction error and improves the interpretability of the prediction model.Meanwhile,we com-bined the theory of surrounding rock partition to illustrate the rationality of surrounding rock proportion in PSO result,that is,the proportion of complex surrounding rock should be increased appropriately to improve the prediction result.Ultimately,based on the optimization-integrated models with engineering data and the surrounding rock classification theory,the importance of proportion of surrounding rock grades for tunnel geological prediction is confirmed.