Population evolution at the prefecture-level city scale in China:Change patterns and spatial correlations

China has entered a new stage of high-quality urbanization.Therefore,it is critical to grasp the latest population distribution and dynamics.Using mean-variance grading,Moran’s index,and the Theil index,this study compared the differences in population changes between 2010–2020 and 2000–2010 at the prefecture-level city scale based on census data to analyze the new trends in population evolution.We found that:(1)New growth poles of the population are inland provincial capitals,forming rapid-growing zones together with coastal urban agglomerations.Population growth in over 60%of the cities in the northern coastal urban agglomeration has slowed.(2)The scope of population loss in inland areas is constantly expanding.In the northeastern part of China,92.7%of the cities have lost population,making this a typical population loss area.(3)Population shrinkage in the northeastern region and growth in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration show diffusion characteristics,while population patterns around the provincial capital are in a polarized stage.(4)The Theil index of population distribution increased,with 83.91%of differences coming from between groups,indicating that the gap between cities of different sizes has further expanded.This study provides scientific support for the coordinated promotion of nearby and remote urbanization.

Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning(hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline),this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.

Analyzing the Urban Hierarchical Structure Based on Multiple Indicators of Economy and Industry: An Econometric Study in China

For a city,analyzing its advantages,disadvantages and the level of economic development in a country is important,especially for the cities in China developing at flying speed.The corresponding literatures for the cities in China have not considered the indicators of economy and industry in detail.In this paper,based on multiple indicators of economy and industry,the urban hierarchical structure of 285 cities above the prefecture level in China is investigated.The indicators from the economy,industry,infrastructure,medical care,population,education,culture,and employment levels are selected to establish a new indicator system for analyzing urban hierarchical structure.The factor analysis method is used to investigate the relationship between the variables of selected indicators and obtain the score of each common factor and comprehensive scores and rankings for 285 cities above the prefecture level in China.According to the comprehensive scores,285 cities above the prefecture level are clustered into 15 levels by using K-means clustering algorithm.Then,the hierarchical structure system of the cities above the prefecture level in China is obtained and corresponding policy implications are proposed.The results and implications can not only be applied to the urban planning and development in China but also offer a reference on other developing countries.The methodologies used in this paper can also be applied to study the urban hierarchical structure in other countries.

Evaluation and Analysis of Ecological Efficiency from the Perspective of Ecological Civilization:A Case Study of Hubei Province

Nowadays,Hubei Province pays more attention to sustainable development with the purpose of building green province. Therefore,in the construction process of ecological civilization in Hubei Province,how to get the optimal economic output with minimum resource consumption and minor environment damage is one of the most urgent problems. Based on the panel data of 12 prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2014,the Malmquist Productivity Index( MPI) was used to calculate the eco-efficiency of 12 prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province. According to the analyzed results,it was found that there was a downward trend of ecological efficiency in Hubei Province during the study period. As for the overall environmental production situation of the whole province in this period,results showed that environmental production efficiency was improved while the level of environmental production technology has decreased greatly. This phenomenon maybe result from different speed,because the speed of technical efficiency improvement was less than the extent of technology decline,which finally led that the Hubei Province's environmental productivity declined.

Study on Credit Card Risk of Commercial Banks in Prefectural-Level Banks Based on Logistic Model

Substantial income has been brought to the bank since credit card business entering the Chinese market,giving rise to a growing number of credit card issuers and more frequent transactions,which also improves convenience of cardholders.However,the booming market of credit card caused a series of credit risk.Credit risk in commercial banks and medium-sized banks in prefectural-level city is an operational risk that cannot be ignored,if not properly handled;it will exacerbate risk control pressure.Credit card risk mainly concerns default risk,and factors causing breach varied.Credit card risk can exist in the whole process,including the customers?application for credit card,card insuring,and transaction settlement.Finding an effective way to identify a variety of credit card risk,and developing a complete and efficient monitoring system to reduce the risk of credit loss is essential for large commercial banks.In terms of smaller-scale banks in prefecture-level city,a credit scoring system to evaluate the customer's credit ability is particularly important.Dataset in this paper mainly comes from a prefecture-level city bank,and the information is anonymous and authentic.This paper starts with the more than 700 customer data of a prefecture-level city bank and comprehensively considers the status quo of credit card development in China's commercial banks and successful domestic and foreign credit risk management experiences,followed with the causes and characteristics of credit card risks,solutions,and proposals,systematically expounding credit card business risk management.This article adopts the Logistic model and the credit scoring model.Through the screening and analysis of dozens of customer's characteristic variables and the use of various commands of statistical software,a prediction model of customer default probability will be constructed.At the same time,a scoring model was introduced to set the threshold for issuing cards in a quantifiable manner to help banks predict the possibility of customer default before issuing credit cards.Finally,through the combination of multiple sets of model comparison and selection,a high level of issuance volume can be ensured,and the risk rate is minimized,which can provide a reference for banks in the practical application of credit risk control.