Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Spatiotemporal Differences and Classification Regulation of Urbanization Impact on Agricultural Development in Shrinking Areas:A Case Study of 15 Shrinking Cities in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China.Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China,this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object,and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019,analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector,and proposes a targeted regulation strategy.The results show that:1)overall,there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces.The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development;2)regarding the time dimension,the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time;3)regarding the spatial pattern,the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west;4)the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors;and 5)the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different.However,they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction,which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast,areas of negative population growth in the west,and areas of urban spatial change in the south.According to the causes of the impact,this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions.

Population Shrinkage in Resource-dependent Cities in China: Processes, Patterns and Drivers

Resource-dependent cities(RCs)are a vulnerable group of urban settlements that often face population shrinkage;however,population changes in RCs in China are not well understood.This study offers new insight into this matter through a robust analysis that features a longer time scale,a larger sample of RCs,and a finer unit of analysis.It finds new evidence that problems of population shrinkage in RCs are more serious than previous literature has suggested.Approximately 30%of the studied units have experienced either long-term or short-term population shrinkage,and many more are experiencing a slowing down of population growth.Problems are especially common among three types of RCs:the resource-depleted RCs,the forestry-based RCs,and RCs in Northeast China.These results underscore transition policy inadequacies in addressing population loss,and call for a more comprehensive and diversified population policy that tackles the multifaceted factors that contribute to population shrinkage,including lack of industrial support,maladjustment to market oriented reformation,poor urban environment and natural population decline.

Vulnerability and Sustainable Development Mode of Coal Cities in Northeast China

In this study, by carrying on the spot investigation to the seven coal cities in Northeast China and interview-ing with the local authority and the residents, the authors definite the vulnerability that is closed to exposure, sensitiv-ity and resilience, and set up vulnerability model of coal cities in Northeast China. At the same time, the authors broadly illustrate how the components of natural-social-economic system act in the coal area, so as to probe the ways to reduce vulnerability more effectively, such as preferential national policy and so on. Furthermore, the article studies the relationship between vulnerability and sustainable development. Vulnerability is a spatio-temporal function of sus-tainable development. The regional sustainable development refrains the spiral ascending of vulnerability. And the re-gional vulnerability and sustainable development appear in turn. Then the article analyzes the natural vulnerability, so-cial vulnerability and economic vulnerability of coal cities in Northeast China. At last, combing vulnerability model and situation of coal cities in Northeast China, the authors put forward regional technology innovation mode, multi-dimension structure transformation mode, attracting investment mode and recycling economy mode to reduce vulnerability.

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data （I km spatial resolution）, this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide （CO2） emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO2 emissions, including scope I and scope 2. Cities with higher CO2 emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO2 emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO2 emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region （such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan）, and the Yangtze River Delta region （such as Shanghai and Suzhou）. The city per capita CO2 emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO2 emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions （Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan） cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO2 emissions. The majority （77%） of cities have annual CO2 emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities （excluding industrial cities and service-based cities）, are in the lowest level. Per capita CO2 emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person （89%） with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO2 emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO2 emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO2 emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO2 emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed： first, city CO2 emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partition- ing the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO2 emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and bench- marking research on city CO2 emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO2 emission reduction should be established.

Conceptualizing and Measuring Economic Resilience of Resource-based Cities： Case Study of Northeast China

This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals-and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities.

Decomposition Analysis on Direct Material Input and Dematerialization of Mining Cities in Northeast China

Material dematerialization is a basic approach to reduce the pressure on the resources and environment and to realize the sustainable development. The material flow analysis and decomposition method are used to calculate the direct material input (DMI) of 14 typical mining cities in Northeast China in 1995–2004 and to analyze the demateri- alization and its driving factors in the different types of mining cities oriented by coal, petroleum, metallurgy and multi-resources. The results are as follows: 1) from 1995 to 2006, the increase rates of the DMI and the material input intensity of mining cities declined following the order of multi-resources, metallurgy, coal, and petroleum cities, and the material utilizing efficiency did following the order of petroleum, coal, metallurgy, and multi-resources cities; 2) during the research period, all the kinds of mining cities were in the situation of weak sustainable development in most years; 3) the pressure on resources and environment in the multi-resources cities was the most serious; 4) the petro- leum cities showed the strong trend of sustainable development; and 5) in recent years, the driving function of eco- nomic development for material consuming has continuously strengthened and the controlling function of material utilizing efficiency for it has weakened. The key approaches to promote the development of circular economy of min- ing cities in Northeast China are put forward in the following aspects: 1) to strengthen the research and development of the technique of resources’ cycling utilization, 2) to improve the utilizing efficiency of resources, and 3) to carry out the auditing system of resources utilization.

The distribution and ecological risks of antibiotics in surface water in key cities along the lower reaches of the Yellow River:A case study of Kaifeng City,China

A large number of antibiotics have been discharged into rivers by human activities,posing a threat to aquatic ecosystems.The surface water of the Yellow River Basin also suffers antibiotic pollution,which hinders the improvement in the aquatic ecological environment.This study investigated and analyzed the characteristics and assessed the ecological risks of antibiotic pollution in surface water bodies such as canals,rivers and fish ponds in Kaifeng,Henan Province,which is a key city along the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The test results are as follows.A total of 15 types of antibiotics were detected in the surface water.They had a total antibiotic concentration of 12.2-249.9μg/L,of which tetracyclines(TCs)and quinolones accounted for the highest percentages.Six types of quinolones had detection rates of up to 100%,and doxycycline(DC)and oxytetracycline(OTC)had average concentrations of 29.52μg/L1 and 13.71μg/L,respectively.The major canals with water diverted from the Yellow River had total concentrations of quinolones and TCs of 22.0μg/L and 14.9μg/L,respectively,which were higher than those in previous studies.This phenomenon may be related to the decrease in the water flow of the Yellow River during the dry season and the increase in the antibiotic consumption of residents in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak.The upper reaches of the Huiji River in the Xiangfu District had higher antibiotic content than other districts in Kaifeng.Specifically,TCs accounted for 72.38%-91.84%of all antibiotics,and the DC and OTC concentrations were significantly higher than other antibiotics in the upper reaches.As indicated by the ecological risk assessment results,TCs had the highest ecological risks to green algae.Among them,DC had medium-high risks;TC,OTC,and chlortetracycline(CTC)had medium-high risks;trimethoprim(TMP)and lomefloxacin(LOM)had low risks;other TC antibiotics had no risk.Compared with green algae,most antibiotics showed higher ecological risks to daphnia and lower ecological risks to fish.DC and OTC dominate antibiotic pollutants in the surface water in Kaifeng City,and especially in Xiangfu District,where DC and OTC have medium-high risks.The TCs in the major Yellow River showed medium risks to both green algae and daphnia.It can be speculated that the antibiotic pollution in the Yellow River might pose a certain threat to the ecological security of water in Kaifeng City.

The Evolution and Differentiation of Economic Convergence of Resource-based Cities in Northeast China

A key target of the overall strategy implementation for regional development since the 18th Party Congress of China has involved taking measures to narrow regional disparities. This is because resource-based cities' economic development has fallen below general levels due to resource exhaustion and an unbalanced industrial structure, among other factors. Further, an economic gap has long existed between Northeast China's large number of resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities. This article comprehensively studies the economic convergence of Northeast China's resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities from 1996 to 2015 by using a dynamic panel to analyze not only the economic development of different industries and types of cities, but also the main factors that influence economic development. The empirical results demonstrate that economic convergence exists in both resource-based and non-resource-based cities, but the economic gap between them has clearly narrowed since the implementation of a strategy to revitalize the Northeast's old industrial base. Shrinking cities are the fastest to converge, as mature cities are slower and regenerating cities are the slowest; regarding industry structure, the secondary industry dominates the economy in mature and shrinking cities, and the tertiary industry in regenerating cities. The primary stimulus in resource-based cities' economic development involves upgrading the industrial structure and investing in human capital. As China faces a ‘new normal' economy, resource-based cities in Northeast China should restructure the economy and perfect their market system to avoid again widening the economic gap.

Cassini Growth of Population Between Two Metropolitan Cities——A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin Region,China

The existing models of population distribution often focus on the region with a single city or even multiple centers, and lack the detailed explorations of the common and special type of urbanization areas with two centers. Taking Beijing-Tianjin region of China, which is a distinct dual-nuclei metropolitan area in the world, as an example and choosing Landsat-5 TM image in 2005, population, etc. as the data, this paper devotes to comprehending and illustrating a model of Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities through the research of spatial population distribution pattern, aided with RS and GIS techniques. Main technical processes include Kriging interpolation of the population data and character simulation of the Cassini ovals. According to the calculation of a/b, a key characteristic index of Cassini growth model, the spatial structures of population distribution were given. When a/b〈 1, it is a curve with two separated loops with a population density more than 3000 persons/km^2. When a/b=1, it is a lemniscate curve with a population density about 3000 persons/km^2. When 1〈a/b〈 √2, it is a dog-bone shaped concave curve with a population density between 500-3000 persons/km^2. When a/b= √2, it is an oblate curve with a population density about 500 persons/km^2. When a/b〉 √2, there is an oval-shaped convex curve with a population density less than 500 persons/km^2. The results show that owing to the combined action and influence of the regional dual-nuclei, the population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin region is in accord with Cassini model significantly. Therefore, there is Cassini growth of population between the two metropolitan cities in Beijing-Tianjin region. In addition, the process of Cassini growth has extraordinarily instructive significance for judging the development stages of the dual-nuclei metropolitan areas.

Characteristics and Driving Forces of Spatial Expansion of Oasis Cities and Towns in Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China

This paper presents an integrated study of urban spatial expansion in the Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China based on TM, ETM remote sensing data in 1987, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and 2011. The study explores the characteristics of urban spatial expansion and dynamic mechanism by using expansion speed index, expansion intensity index, compact index, fractal dimension, and extended flexibility index. We built the index system of influencing factors of urban spatial expansion by using the grey incidence model. The results showed that urban spatial expansion rate in the Hexi Corridor has been on the upward trend since 1987. Expansion intensity showed an obvious upward trend, however, the upward trend varied in different urban areas. In addition, the urban structure was loose relatively, but the urban compactness was more obvious. The urban spatial form tended to be simple, and the urban land use tended to become more intensive. Urban spatial expansion experienced several stages: padding internally, external expansion and padding internally. The main driving factors of urban spatial expansion are not the urban water resources and the oasis scale, but one or several factors such as economy, traffic, population, resource and national policy.

Distribution of primary school based on spatial network comprehensive model in low-income mountainous cities： a case study in Wanyuan, China

Focusing on the peculiarities of urban construction resulting from specific mountain terrains, the purpose of this study is to find out a suitable method based on a Spatial Network Comprehensive Model(SNCM) to reasonably plan and distribute primary schools in low-income mountain cities. The construction principles and advantages of the SNCM method are proposed and the method tested in Wanyuan city of Qinba Mountain area(Southwest China) to verify its feasibility and optimization. Taking account of the mountain terrain and its influence on user behavior, we used the SNCM method to build a comprehensive model which integrates the road slope and the walking speed of pupils into the basic spatial model. The model is used to calculate a reasonable layout of the primary schools and to validate the rationale. The results show that the SNCM method can be effectively applied in low-income mountainous cities. It can not only improve the accessibility and service efficiency of primary schools using as little capital-investment as possible, but also help the city grow in an intensive and efficient way.

GROWTH OF NEW DESIGNATED CITIES IN CHINA

The opening of the economy has contributed to the rapid urban development in China over the last 17 years from 1979 to 1996. It is worthwhile to note three new development trends of Chinese urban system. The first trend identifies the emergence of mega urbanization regions. The second trend rebuilds a closer tie between the Chinese urban system and the global urban system through the development of the world (global) cities and international cities. The third trend shows the fast polarized development in hinterlands and peripheries around advanced economic regions. However, the research literature on Chinese urbanization in English has shown the scarcity of good databanks and the analysis results are incomplete. Some researchers also always question the quality of the data. Using the most completed and most recent data, this paper reviews the growth of China's new designated cities since 1949. This paper also seeks to examine the various policies and to explore the underlying factors that have affected the growth of China new cities. From the development of China's cities in the past 47 years from 1949 to 1996, it is easy to find that metropolitan cities developed with a relatively high rate compared with smaller ones, but the ratio of number and population to whole country cities remained stable; Chinese urban system development had entered a phase of small cities development; in terms of cities regional distribution, the south and east region is still the central area of urban development.

Which Neighborhoods Have Easier Access to Online Home Delivery Services?A Spatiotemporal Accessibility Analysis in Nanjing,China

The rise in online home delivery services(OHDS)has had a significant impact on how urban services are supplied and used in recent years.Studies on the spatial accessibility of OHDS are emerging,but few is known about the temporal dimension of OHDS accessibility as well as the geographic and socioeconomic differences in the spatiotemporal accessibility of OHDS.This study measures the spatiotemporal accessibility of four types of OHDS,namely leisure,fresh and convenient,medical,and catering services.The geographic and socioeconomic disparities in the spatiotemporal accessibility of these four types of OHDS are then identified using spatial statistical methods and the Kruskal-Wallis test(K-W test).The case study in Nanjing,China,suggests that:1)spatiotemporal accessibility better reflects the temporal variation of OHDS accessibility and avoids overestimation of OHDS accessibility when only considering its spatial dimension.2)The spatiotemporal accessibility of OHDS varies geographically and socioeconomically.Neighborhoods located in the main city or neighborhoods with higher housing prices,higher population density,and higher point of interest(POI)mix have better OHDS spatiotemporal accessibility.Our study contributes to the understanding of OHDS accessibility from a spatiotemporal perspective,and the empirical insights can assist policymakers in creating intervention plans that take into account variations in OHDS spatiotemporal accessibility.

City Network Evolution Characteristics of Smart Industry: Evidence from Yangtze River Delta, China

The dual-path model of industrial evolution and spatial progression has been widely acknowledged and incorporated into the strategic planning to promote the development of urban industries and regional collaborations.However,current research on inter-enter-prise city networks mainly focuses on the single sector of flows on all enterprise branches,such as product value chains and production factors,but neglects that of particular industry department.Built upon the new economic geography and city networks theory,this paper develops a methodological framework that focuses on the analysis of city network evolution characteristics of smart industry.Particu-larly,a conceptual model of smart industry enterprise-industry-city is proposed and then applied to a case study of smart industry in the Yangtze River Delta Region,China.Using enterprise supplier-customer data,a city network of smart industry is constructed and sub-sequently analyzed with the proposed model.Findings indicate that the smart industry network in Yangtze River Delta Region exhibits a hierarchical structure and the expansion of the network presents a small-world network characteristic.The study not only makes a meth-odological contribution for revealing the industrial and spatial evolution path of the current smart industry,but also provides empirical support for the formulation of new economic development policies focused on smart industries,demonstrating the role of city clusters as carriers of regional synergistic development.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERIOUSLY POLLUTED CITIES IN CHINA——Taking Benxi City as an Example

The environmental problems in the seriously polluted cities in China have been paid attention to by policy makers and foreign and domestic scholars. However, it is very difficult to improve the environmental quality fundamentally due to its complexity, for example the formation of the seriously deteriorated environment. It is considered that the terminal harnessing is an important way,but the spread of high level terminal treatment is restricted by the limit of funds and technological level. Therefore, the way for a sustainable development of the seriously polluted cities should be multiple sided, which is to correlate the operation of environmental protection with the operation of city construction. To achieve an identity of these opposites, measures should be taken during economic development and environmental protection in every developing stage. In this paper, the authors take Benxi City as a case study.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Heat Islands and Optimization of Spatial Network Construction in the Central Urban Area of Fuzhou City, China

Although accelerated urbanization has led to economic prosperity,it has also resulted in urban heat island effects.Therefore,identifying methods of using limited urban spaces to alleviate heat islands has become an urgent issue.In this study,we assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of urban heat islands within the central urban area of Fuzhou City,China from 2010 to 2019.This assessment was based on a morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)model and an urban thermal environment spatial network constructed us-ing the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model.Optimization measures for the spatial network were proposed to provide a theor-etical basis for alleviating urban heat islands.The results show that the heat island area within the study area gradually increased while that of urban cold island area gradually decreased.The core area was the largest of the urban heat island patch landscape elements with a significant impact on other landscape elements,and represented an important factor underlying urban heat island network stability.The thermal environment network revealed a total of 197 thermal environment corridors and 93 heat island sources.These locations were then optimized according to the current land use,which maximized the potential of 1599.83 ha.Optimization based on current land use led to an increase in climate resilience,with effective measures showing reduction in thermal environment spatial network structure and function,contributing to the mitigation of urban heat island.These findings support the use of current land use patterns during urban heat island mitigation measure planning,thus providing an important reference basis for alleviating urban heat island effects.

Carrying Capacity and Coupling Coordination of Water and Land Resources Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Areas: A Case Study of Yulin City, China

Quantitatively assessing the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems in arid and semi-arid areas is crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.In this work,taking Yulin City in China as a case study and employing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation(CRITIC)method,a modified model of coupling degree was developed to evaluate the car-rying capacity of water and land resources systems endowment and utilization,as well as their coupling coordination degree from 2013 to 2020.Our findings indicate that the water and land resources of Yulin are diminishing due to declines in agriculture,higher industrial water use,and wetland shrinkage.However,reallocating domestic water for ecological sustainability and reducing sloping farmland can mitigate this trend of decline.Temporally,as the coupling coordination between water and land resources system endowment in Yulin continuously improved,the coupling coordination between water and land resources system utilization first decreased and then in-creased with 2016 as the turning point.Spatially,the carrying capacity of water and land resources systems,the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system endowment,and the coupling coordination degree between water and land resources system utilization in Yulin exhibited the same pattern of being higher in the six northern counties than in the six southern counties.Improving the water resources endowment is vital for the highly efficient use of water and land resources.

ON DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE CITIES IN CHINA

The large cities in China have grown rapidly during the past 40 years. By the end of 1990, there were 59 large cities with a population of 0.5 million or more in the China's Mainland, of which 31 cities have a population of more than 1 million. Under the situation of controlling and developing, the characteristics of the large city grooth may be generalized as follows: 1. Large cities have developed rapidly, but their proportion of number and population in the whole national urban system has dropped. 2. The proportion of coastal large cities some what dropped, the inland large cities increased rapidly.3. Most of the provincial capitals have developed into large cities. Due to the concentration of industry and population to the cities, especially to the large cities, the cities scales are expending and the urban problems are strenghtened. The economic efficiency in large cities is decreasing, the Problems in infrastructure construction are becoming more and more serious. The coming 10 to 20 years are an important period for large city development in China. With the social and economic development, the large city growth will continue. The urbann agglomerations-taking the extra-large and medium-sized cities as their centres will come into being in China. the industries such as finance, trade,information and real estate will increase greatly and will form the major part of urban area, with the restructuring of industries in metropolitan regions.

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Winter Urban Heat Island:A Case Study of Rapid Urbanization Area of Fuzhou City,China

Under the influence of anthropogenic and climate change,the problems caused by urban heat island(UHI)has become increasingly prominent.In order to promote urban sustainable development and improve the quality of human settlements,it is significant for exploring the evolution characteristics of urban thermal environment and analyzing its driving forces.Taking the Landsat series images as the basic data sources,the winter land surface temperature(LST)of the rapid urbanization area of Fuzhou City in China was quantitatively retrieved from 2001 to 2021.Combing comprehensively the standard deviation ellipse model,profile analysis and GeoDetector model,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the winter urban thermal environment were systematically analyzed.The results showed that the winter LST presented an increasing trend in the study area during 2001–2021,and the winter LST of the central urban regions was significantly higher than the suburbs.There was a strong UHI effect from 2001 to 2021with an expansion trend from the central urban regions to the suburbs and coastal areas in space scale.The LST of green lands and wetlands are significantly lower than croplands,artificial surface and unvegetated lands.Vegetation and water bodies had a significant mitigation effect on UHI,especially in the micro-scale.The winter UHI had been jointly driven by the underlying surface and socio-economic factors in a nonlinear or two-factor interactive enhancement mode,and socio-economic factors had played a leading role.This research could provide data support and decision-making references for rationally planning urban layout and promoting sustainable urban development.