The chaotic behavior among the oil prices, expectation of investors and stock returns: TAR-TR-GARCH copula and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula

This paper has two aims. The first one is to investigate the existence of chaotic structures in the oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns by combining the Lyapunov exponent and Kolmogorov entropy, and the second one is to analyze the dependence behavior of oil prices, expectations of investors and stock returns from January 02, 1990, to June06, 2017. Lyapunov exponents and Kolmogorov entropy determined that the oil price and the stock return series exhibited chaotic behavior. TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods were applied to study the co-movement among the selected variables. The results showed significant evidence of nonlinear tail dependence between the volatility of the oil prices, the expectations of investors and the stock returns. Further, upper and lower tail dependence and comovement between the analyzed series could not be rejected. Moreover, the TAR-TR-GARCH and TAR-TR-TGARCH copula methods revealed that the volatility of oil price had crucial effects on the stock returns and on the expectations of investors in the long run.

Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.

On the Influence Factors of Second-hand House Prices in First-tier Cities——Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

With the arrival of the ＂housing stock＂ in first - tier cities, the second - handhousing^market will become the dominant property market. This ardcle aim to the first - tiercities of second - hand housing prices and new home price index for the empirical analysis, thedata related to the cointegration analysis found that the result of the first -tier cities real estatemarket in China, the new home price index is the significant factors influencing the second -hand house price indexi For Beijing, Shanghai second - hand housing and new home price in-dex time series johans test, found that there exists cointegration relationship between two varia-bles,the new city real estate market prices out of a line on the secondary market have clearguide. Therefore, the real estate market regulation aiming at the first -tier cities and the＂housing stock＂ should take the second - hand housing market as the main direction, startingwith the sale price and influencing factors of new houses. At the same time, in different cities,we should adhere to the city＇ s policies, reflect the policy differentiation, promote the reformof the real estate supply side, and promote the return of housing properties.

Settlement of Internal Cutthroat Competition Amid IT Group Companies:Away from “Prisoners’ Dilemma” of Price Wars

Cutthroat competition amid subsidiary companies of IT Group Company due to immanent characteristics of IT industry and grouping management mechanism infringes upon the collective profits. Two ways to avoid cutthroat competition of group company with game theory are studied： the assessment objective made by IT group company for subsidiary companies focuses on profits not revenue; the supervisory department of group company shall intensify law enforcement strength and give severe punishment against illegal depreciation of the subsidiary company.

生鲜农产品电商拼价销售影响小农生产经营的内在逻辑——基于陕西省A县甜瓜产业的考察

水果电商业态中的拼价销售模式在促进果品流通及提升水果消费总量方面发挥了关键作用,但该模式对小农生产经营所产生的负面效应同样值得关注。本文基于A县甜瓜产业的田野调研经验,剖析了水果电商拼价销售运营模式,并从农产品价格形成和品质控制两个维度考察生鲜水果电商拼价销售模式影响小农生产经营的内在逻辑。研究发现:一方面,从价格形成过程角度看,经过消费者比价购买、电商经营者拼价销售、供应链和代办压价收购以及果农被动受价等一系列“层层压价”环节,小农利润空间被严重压缩;另一方面,拼价电商销售模式放大了水果销售中的品控难题,电商经营者及供应链“拼价不拼质”的销售和收购策略诱发农户“重产轻质”的种植偏好,危害地域品牌发展,也进一步加剧小农的生产经营困境。鉴于水果电商拼价销售模式存在的现实问题,需要有针对性地采取应对措施维护水果电商市场秩序和保障农业生产者利益,强化农业产业的富民效应。

中国共产党对苏区“剪刀差”问题的阐释与应对

中国共产党进入农村开展革命斗争之后,面临着工农产品价格的“剪刀差”问题。中共一方面重视采取各种经济政策来解决苏区工业品价格上升、农产品价格下跌的问题;另一方面也注重阐释、宣传“剪刀差”现象的成因,并加强群众经济动员,降低“剪刀差”对苏区经济和农村革命的影响。总体而言,中共对于“剪刀差”问题的阐释与应对,受整体军事战争形势和根据地经济政策的影响,在三个不同阶段形成了不同的阐释与应对策略,部分地解决了革命所需的物资流通与群众动员问题,并在其中积累了处理农村工农产品价格“剪刀差”问题的经验。

抗战时期行政院经济会议、国家总动员会议的物价管制及其成效

全面抗战爆发后,国民政府先后建立了行政院经济会议、国家总动员会议,对审查协调、督导推动物价管制政策及其实施发挥了总揽全局的作用,并取得一定成效,但未能达到稳定物价的目的。经济会议、国家总动员会议的经济检察工作深陷权责不清、效率低下和苛扰民间的困境,未能有效抑制违反管制政策的行为。国民党战时集权政治结构和党内日益恶化的政治生态是制约物价管制成效的深层因素。

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Investment in deepwater oil and gas exploration projects:a multi-factor analysis with a real options model

Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.

乳业韧性增长下的新变化——2022年中国乳业市场回顾与分析

2022年,中国牛奶产量为3932万吨,同比增长6.8%;乳制品产量为3118万吨,同比增长2.0%。原奶产量充足,但生产量明显下降,乳业市场进入到短期的调整阶段。从消费变化来看,消费降级、消费平移、消费升级同时存在,乳品消费出现结构分化;从产品的变化看,低温鲜奶全面进入全方位的竞争阶段,将复刻常温乳品的发展路径;常温奶基础型产品增加较快,但价格竞争激烈;而中高端乳品的降价销售与价格恢复过程,品牌价值的作用明显;随着老龄化社会的到来,成人类奶粉成为市场的热点产品,越来越多的企业加入到这个品类的竞争中来;为挖掘市场新的增长点,乳品的关联类产品受到重视,比如雪糕、奶酒、奶酪等;从渠道变化看,线上渠道受到更多企业的重视,线下渠道也出现了新的业态,这些都推动着乳品企业的渠道变革。

2023年第二季度乳品行业市场分析

第二季度国内乳制品消费进入相对淡季,复苏缓慢,供需阶段性过剩,加剧了奶价的下滑,零售终端的价格战激烈,中小型乳品企业面临更加严峻的挑战。从上市乳品企业的业绩来看,整体营收增长出现疲态,业绩分化明显,大型企业增长依然稳健,但增速明显放缓;中小型乳品企业的营收和利润全面下滑,但有部分乳品企业通过坚守品牌价值、持续推广新品等方式,依然获得了较好的增长。奶酪品类缺乏新的消费场景,同质化竞争下,头部品牌也出现增长下滑。乳品行业的并购现象再次重现,行业进入到新的整合期。乳品企业新品频出,从调制乳到酸奶,从乳饮品到婴幼儿配方奶粉等,均呈现出功能化、场景化的特征。

浅谈“价格战”下工程质量检测监管存在的问题及对策

论文就“价格战”产生的背景,及其在工程质量检测领域引起的危害进行了分析,指出了当前检测机构监管部门的难点、痛点和堵点,并提出了对应的监管措施。

光绪中期湖广盐斤加价与鄂省江防经费筹措研究

晚清时期,江防是抵御外侮的重要防线。中法战争期间,署湖广总督卞宝第主持建设鄂省江防,但困于经费支绌,几经周折后奏准在湘、鄂两省施行川、淮盐斤加价2文。然而,加价推行过程中,户部欲行干预与分利之举,两江总督左宗棠担心淮盐销售受阻而不欲淮盐加价,湘省因川盐、淮盐、粤盐竞争激烈也不愿推行加价。最终,经过多方协商,鄂省川、淮盐斤顺利加价,湘省则改为淮盐加价1文。湖广盐斤加价的收入甚为可观,为鄂省江防建设和善后提供了充足的财力保障。但是,战争危机解除后,江防经费余款及后续加价收入皆移为他用,极大地抑制了鄂省江防建设的后劲。这一个案表明盐斤加价是江防经费的重要来源,其艰难的运作过程及事后移挪他用的结果又折射出江防建设处于忽轻忽重的尴尬之境。

药品价格下降成因及趋势分析

目的 :探讨药品价格下降的成因、幅度及后果。方法 :对我国近年来的社会经济状况、医药行业走势和国家对医药行业的宏观调控措施等因素进行分析。结果与结论 :药品价格下降是必然结果 。

连锁药店应对药品价格竞争的策略探讨

目的 :为连锁药店应对药品价格竞争提供参考思路。方法 :从经济学角度探讨药店竞争 ;分析平价药店与连锁药店各自的优、劣势。结果与结论 :连锁药店只有加强药学服务 ,不断发掘市场空白点 ,充分发挥自身优势 ,才能在竞争中立于不败之地。

基于博弈论的云制造服务平台价格战应对策略研究

在云制造模式下,制造服务提供方的恶意低价或有意降价行为,将导致云制造服务平台出现价格战。本文对云制造服务平台的服务价格、报价商家数目以及一段时期内的成交次数等数据进行分析,得出制造服务提供方和需求方达到一定规模后其制造服务的报价服从正态分布规律的结论。将博弈论引入云制造领域,构建了云制造服务平台实施惩罚与不惩罚策略下制造服务提供方与云制造服务平台的博弈模型,达到了子博弈完美纳什均衡。针对制造服务提供方有意的缓慢降价行为,增加其获取信息的条件限制,从而提高了信息获取的成本。研究结果表明,本文提出的两种价格战应对策略,能够有效抑制制造服务提供方的恶意低价和有意降价行为,保证了云制造服务平台的平稳运行。

博弈论模型对“价格战”现象的分析和对策建议

运用微观经济学和博弈论原理构建了寡头竞争市场中“价格战”现象的分析模型，得出了减弱“价格战”的两种方法：一是联合与兼并，二是创造产品差异．并对避免“价格战”

对价格战问题的思考

价格战是企业的一种重要的营销手段。本文目的就是通过对价格战的成因及后果的分析,找出一套适用于价格战的竞争手段。通过分析价格战的各种成因,以及价格战对企业和顾客的影响,本文提出了面对价格战企业应采取发起价格战、避免价格战和对付价格战的三种不同策略。

产品差别化、价格战与合谋

随着中国市场化改革的不断深入,价格战成为各行各业企业间不断上演的舞台剧。文章旨在从产品差别化与企业间合谋的相互关系出发,来分析企业频繁选择价格竞争而难以进行合谋的原因,即产品垂直差别水平的降低将使合谋难以维持,价格战容易爆发。因此,解决价格战的途径之一是中国企业应该加大自主创新的能力,提高产品垂直差别化程度。