To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the ef...To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.展开更多
As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market...As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.展开更多
Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autor...Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.展开更多
On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comp...On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comparable countries (or regions). The prominent problem of the real estate market in our country is the rapid rise of urban house price and the high ratio of house price to income. The direct reason is that the social funds, especially the excessive credit funds flow into the real estate market. The indirect reason is that the land supply mode makes the land price increase too fast and account for high proportion in house price, which leads to the result that the development of real estate industry is beyond the stage of economic development. These problems are not isolated, but related to each other. The rapid rise of house prices in most of the cities, especially in the first-tier cities, is the comprehensive reflection of a large amount of credit funds promoting and the drawbacks of the land supply system in essence. The main ideas to solve the problem are correctly understanding the status, role and influence of the real estate market, stabilizing and improving the short-term control policy of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61703014 and 62073008).
文摘To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.
文摘As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.
文摘Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.
基金Major projects of the National Social Science Fund“Research on China’s Industrial Structure Adjustment and Upgrading under the Supply-Side Reform and Coordinated Demand-Side Reform during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period”(16ZDA004)。
文摘On the basis of determining the international comparison method and framework of the real estate market, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the development of China’s real estate market and those of some comparable countries (or regions). The prominent problem of the real estate market in our country is the rapid rise of urban house price and the high ratio of house price to income. The direct reason is that the social funds, especially the excessive credit funds flow into the real estate market. The indirect reason is that the land supply mode makes the land price increase too fast and account for high proportion in house price, which leads to the result that the development of real estate industry is beyond the stage of economic development. These problems are not isolated, but related to each other. The rapid rise of house prices in most of the cities, especially in the first-tier cities, is the comprehensive reflection of a large amount of credit funds promoting and the drawbacks of the land supply system in essence. The main ideas to solve the problem are correctly understanding the status, role and influence of the real estate market, stabilizing and improving the short-term control policy of the real estate market, and accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market.
