Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in impl...Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in implementing price stabilization policy for the government. This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers in soybean prices between international and domestic markets using the multivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model based on the data set from December 22,2004 to December 19,2014. The estimate results indicate that there are volatility spillover effects from domestic futures market to spot market and bilateral spillover between international futures market and domestic spot market. In order to prevent market manipulation and to reduce the impacts of price volatility in international soybean market on Chinese market,this paper proposes the following policy measures such as establishing early warning mechanism for soybean price fluctuations,improving soybean futures contract design and strengthening trading risk management mechanism,amplifying information disclosure system,and regularizing speculation activities of big traders.展开更多
China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especial...China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.展开更多
基金Supported by National Social Science Foundation of China(13BJY141)
文摘Sharp fluctuation of soybean prices in international and domestic markets has caused big risks for both domestic soybean producers and processing enterprises in recent years. It also increases the difficulties in implementing price stabilization policy for the government. This paper analyzes the volatility spillovers in soybean prices between international and domestic markets using the multivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model based on the data set from December 22,2004 to December 19,2014. The estimate results indicate that there are volatility spillover effects from domestic futures market to spot market and bilateral spillover between international futures market and domestic spot market. In order to prevent market manipulation and to reduce the impacts of price volatility in international soybean market on Chinese market,this paper proposes the following policy measures such as establishing early warning mechanism for soybean price fluctuations,improving soybean futures contract design and strengthening trading risk management mechanism,amplifying information disclosure system,and regularizing speculation activities of big traders.
文摘China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.
