A Conceptual Framework for Commercial Property Price Indexes

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Income Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper suggests a variant of the capitalization of the Net Operating Income approach to the construction of property price indexes and uses the one hoss shay or light bulb model of depreciation as a model of depreciation for the structure component of a commercial property.

Production Chain Length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.

Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Inflationary effects of oil prices and domestic gasoline prices:Markov-switching-VAR analysis

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.

Forecasting Model Based on Information-Granulated GA-SVR and ARIMA for Producer Price Index

The accuracy of predicting the Producer Price Index(PPI)plays an indispensable role in government economic work.However,it is difficult to forecast the PPI.In our research,we first propose an unprecedented hybrid model based on fuzzy information granulation that integrates the GA-SVR and ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)models.The fuzzy-information-granulation-based GA-SVR-ARIMA hybrid model is intended to deal with the problem of imprecision in PPI estimation.The proposed model adopts the fuzzy information-granulation algorithm to pre-classification-process monthly training samples of the PPI,and produced three different sequences of fuzzy information granules,whose Support Vector Regression(SVR)machine forecast models were separately established for their Genetic Algorithm(GA)optimization parameters.Finally,the residual errors of the GA-SVR model were rectified through ARIMA modeling,and the PPI estimate was reached.Research shows that the PPI value predicted by this hybrid model is more accurate than that predicted by other models,including ARIMA,GRNN,and GA-SVR,following several comparative experiments.Research also indicates the precision and validation of the PPI prediction of the hybrid model and demonstrates that the model has consistent ability to leverage the forecasting advantage of GA-SVR in non-linear space and of ARIMA in linear space.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.

The Changes in World Oil Prices, Monetary Factors, and Foreign Index Toward Composite Index Movement： Indonesian Case for the Period of 2005-2011

Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.

Preparation and application of express price index

Firstly, according to the application of price index in other areas, put forward the concept of express price index. And the system of price index theory is carried out, including the index method, index theory, and introduces the development and application of foreign famous commodity index; secondly, basic work in the previous step, put forward the preparation of China＇s express delivery price index, price index as the relationship between supply and demand of express delivery industry price guide.

The research based on the differential equation model of price factors

National attaches＇ great importance to price trends highlights the complexity of the situation of the current price. Control price at a reasonable level has become a large problem of the ＂The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂ for the first year of a major exam in front of us. At the end of Last year, the central economic work conference held to stabilize the overall price level in a more prominent position. The State Council raised that to ensure the overall price level basically stable on the first place in the deployment of the first quarter.

Research on the Change of GDP Growth,Monetary Growth and Price Index based on VAR and IRF

In this paper,we use the macro data from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2015,through vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality analysis,impulse response function(RFI)and variance decomposition analysis of quantitative analysis methods,to research on the relationship among China’s real growth variation of gross domestic product(GDP),Money supply growth rate and consumer price index.We find that the money supply growth has impact on China’s real growth variation of GDP in short-term,but there is no long-term significant effect.Economic growth is the main factor to promote the consumer price index growth,money growth is not the main factor driving the change in the price index.China’s currency growth is affected significantly by the change of the economic growth.

China futures price forecasting based on online search and information transfer

The synchronicity effect between the financial market and online response for time-series forecasting is an important task with wide applications.This study combines data from the Baidu index(BDI),Google trends(GT),and transfer entropy(TE)to forecast a wide range of futures prices with a focus on China.A forecasting model based on a hybrid gray wolf optimizer(GWO),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM)is developed.First,Baidu and Google dual-platform search data were selected and constructed as Internetbased consumer price index(ICPI)using principal component analysis.Second,TE is used to quantify the information between online behavior and futures markets.Finally,the effective Internet-based consumer price index(ICPI)and TE are introduced into the GWO-CNN-LSTM model to forecast the daily prices of corn,soybean,polyvinyl chloride(PVC),egg,and rebar futures.The results show that the GWO-CNN-LSTM model has a significant improvement in predicting future prices.Internet-based CPI built on Baidu and Google platforms has a high degree of real-time performance and reduces the platform and language bias of the search data.Our proposed framework can provide predictive decision support for government leaders,market investors,and production activities.

The Response of Consumer Food Price Index(CFPI)due to the Impact of Pandemic COVID-19 on Indian Agriculture Sector

India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major exporter of many crop foods.India,Thailand,and Vietnam are the major exports of rice if these stopped exports it reduces the economy up to 15%.A related circumstance is built up with diverse yields too like wheat,sunflower whose fare has been stationary by Kazakhstan,Serbia individually.In India,the end of April is the main source of income to farmers because they sell their rabi crops(wheat,mustard,maize,lentil,chilies,gram,tomatoes)in the market drastically decreases of CFPI may lead to the distress of Indian agricultural economy.The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts.

药品价格指数的构建与应用

目的基于药品零售价格大数据构建药品价格指数,描述其波动特征,发挥其药品价格宏观监管作用,促进药品价格保持合理水平。方法运用链式拉氏指数构建原理建立药品价格指数模型,运用时间序列模型描述指数波动特征,识别并分析药品价格波动异常状况。结果2015年1月—2020年12月,药品价格总指数小幅上涨,累计涨幅为14.43%,年均涨幅约2.40%,市场化改革成效较为显著。通过基于局部加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal-trend decomposition using loess,STL)方法对获得的药品价格总指数时间序列进行分析,指数呈长期平缓上升趋势,不规则波动值为-1.41~2.03,说明药品价格受外因影响较小,周期性特征仍有待进一步研究。2015年1月—2020年12月,根据药品价格指数共监测到价格异常风险32次。结论药品价格指数较全面地反映药品价格走势,对于药品价格异常波动具有一定的预警作用,能够为我国药品价格监管提供有效工具。

Demand for Money and Inflation in Ethiopia

One of the vital components of the macroeconomic model that helps policymaking is the demand for money function.Having reliable predictions on the money demand function helps in determining the optimum growth of money supply which is vital in controlling the inflation rate in the economy and also preventing monetary disturbances from affecting real output.In order to formulate and estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia,this study used quarterly data from 2000Q3 to 2021Q2 and employed the Ordinary Least Square method and Engle-Granger two-stage procedure for empirical analysis.The empirical result from the models indicates that,in the long run,all variables(real GDP,CPI inflation,real effective exchange rate,real interest rate and lagged real money balance)are significantly affecting the demand for money in Ethiopia.Whereas,the estimated coefficients of the short-run variable show that the real effective exchange rate,CPI inflation,and lagged real money balance are the main determinants of demand for money while the real GDP and real interest rate are insignificant.Another important finding is that absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term implies that about 54.2%of the disequilibrium in real money demand is counter-balanced by short-run adjustment in each quarter.The study suggests that in conducting monetary policy,policymakers should consider not only the behavior of income and price but also the movement of exchange rates.The study also calls for appropriate formulation and estimation of the all-encompassing demand for money function that is capable of bringing stability to the growth of money coupled with sustainable economic growth.

A Hybrid Neural Network and Box-Jenkins Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.

Modeling dynamic assessment of ecosystem services based on remote sensing technology:A sampling of the Gansu grassland ecosystem

The ecosystem is important because it is the life sustaining system for human survival.Three ecosystem characteristics are:regional particularities,ecosystem complexity and conventional cultural particularities.This paper develops a remote sensing based dynamic model to assess grassland ecosystem service values involving multidisciplinary knowledge.The ecological value of grassland ecosystems is focused on using a remote sensing technique in the model,and setting up the framework for a dynamic assessing model.The grassland ecological services condition and value in 1985 is used as the benchmark.The dynamic model has two adjusting indicators:biomass and price index.The biomass is simulated using the CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model.The price index was obtained from statistics data published by the statistical bureau.Results show that the grassland ecosystem value in Gansu Province was 28.36 billion Chinese Yuan in 1985,140.37 billion in 1999 and 130.86 billion in 2002.

Forecasting Inflation Rate of Zambia Using Holt’s Exponential Smoothing

In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.

The Relationship between the Ethiopian Economic Growth and the Decrease in Purchasing Power of Consumers

There is no clear theory which states fixed relationship between inflation and growth.Controversy by quantity and institutional inflation theories also confirm this.According to quantity theorists,there is a long-run trade-off between inflation and economic growth but the supporters of institutional theory of inflation,are less sure about presence of negative relationship about inflation and growth.Thus,the relationship between inflation and economic growth is debatable both in the world and specifically to Ethiopia.Therefore,the objective of this critical review is to determine the relationship between the current status of the Ethiopian economy and the consumer price index by considering the economic development indictors and consumer price index.The nexus of inflation and economic growth is one of the most important macroeconomic policy problems that take the attention of researchers,policy makers and different scholars.Conducting this review will benefit developing countries by discovering what their current status is,as far as a person with a higher level of consumption is regarded as having a higher level of economic wellbeing than someone with a lower level of consumption.This study falls within the ambit of the pragmatism philosophical stance and exploratory in nature.This study applied the inductive method of reasoning and used secondary data.The Study found that there is a negative relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer(consumer price index)synonymously measured by the inflation-macroeconomic growth trade-off.The review reveals that Ethiopian economy is highly growing and the consumer price index(purchasing power of consumers)is decreasing.This shows that the purchasing power consumer(consumer price index)in Ethiopia is not solely determined by the macroeconomic development,which in turn requires further investigation.It is recommended therefore that future research works will explore more on the relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the purchasing power of consumer or clearly can explore the effect of economic growth on the purchasing power of consumers(consumer price index).

Design and implementation of China Hydrogen Price Index system

Hydrogen will be an important part of China’s energy system in the future and an important carrier for energy-using terminals to realize green and low-carbon transformation.It is important to establish a nationwide hydrogen market to promote the healthy and orderly development of the hydrogen industry chain.The core is to form a complete hydrogen price mechanism and play a decisive role in the process of resource allocation by the market.In this paper,we have developed the framework of the‘China Hydrogen Price Index’system by establishing the‘Assessment+Collection’model,which covers four types of hydrogen:hydrogen,clean hydrogen,renewable hydrogen and high-purity hydrogen.The model considers the raw materials required for hydrogen production,fixed equipment,engineering construction costs and carbon prices,and conducts sensitivity analysis on the trends and influencing factors of national and regional hydrogen prices of multiple categories since 2018.The results show that,with respect to the level of hydrogen prices,fossil-energy-rich and renewable-energy-rich areas have more advantages than other regions.The price of raw materials is the main factor of the hydrogen price change,and the utilization hours of renewable energy and hydrogen production equipment have a key influence on the price of renewable hydrogen.Next,by establishing an index update mechanism,improving the standard system and building a trading platform,we can further exert the role of price signals and continue to promote the efficient and smooth expansion of the domestic hydrogen market.