The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price risin...This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.展开更多
Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were...Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.展开更多
August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set a...August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set at 2.5%, and in Europe it is 2%.展开更多
Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset i...Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset investment are better signals of the overall health of the Chinese economy than the inflation rate, which is largely cyclical.展开更多
Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on Janua...Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on January 9.The growth in the consumer price index（CPI）,the main gauge of inflation,was also below the2-percent increase registered in2014.展开更多
The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemp...The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemployment rate maintained a steady decline from 8.9 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2014.展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
文摘This paper thinks that the price of a commodity depends on both the value of the commodity and that of the currency. The change in either value will cause the change of the price of the commodity. Only the price rising caused by the decreasing of the currency value can be called inflation, and the price rising led by the increasing of the value of the merchandise can not be called inflation. Therefore, it is not proper, as defined by the modem economics, to think that any price increasing should be in general called inflation.
文摘Grain prices often dominate all other product prices,and an increase in their price is usually considered as a prelude to inflation.The three fairly serious inflations,in 1985,1988-1989,and 1993-1995 respectively,were all preceded by grain price hikes.Furthermore,the money supply surged in the preceding year or during the same year in which these inflations occurred.This year has witnessed the same symptoms. High grain prices,which still have a possibility to go up further,have attracted wide attention across the world,including in China.As early as the end of last year,the State Council issued a circular that mandated the stabilization of grain prices in order to strictly crack down on illegal actions such as dishonest merchants driving up grain prices.One time,five State-level Departments led by National Development and Reform Commission,released an urgent announcement in order to safeguard the stability of grain prices in the domestic market.Wu Xiaoling,Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China,said that the negative influences exerted on other product prices by the rise in global grain price should not be ignored.According to Wu,the People's Bank of China will continue to closely watch the price changes. From a global and comprehensive viewpoint,the article analyzes the features of the recent grain price hike and the reasons for its dramatic rise,as well as,the impact it will have on the global economy.
文摘August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set at 2.5%, and in Europe it is 2%.
文摘Despite consumer inflation figures hitting 5.6% in July - a 1o-year high - few analysts are showing major concerns. Most analysts whom CIB spoke with said that the moderately high rates of bank loans and fixed asset investment are better signals of the overall health of the Chinese economy than the inflation rate, which is largely cyclical.
文摘Inflation Indexes China’s consumer prices grew 1.4percent in 2015 from one year earlier,below the government’s 3-percen cap set for the year,according to data released by National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on January 9.The growth in the consumer price index（CPI）,the main gauge of inflation,was also below the2-percent increase registered in2014.
文摘The labor market is important to the economy,as reflected by its impact on economic performance and the government’s decision-making process for related policies.Take the United States,for example, in which the unemployment rate maintained a steady decline from 8.9 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2014.
