Price prediction of power transformer materials based on CEEMD and GRU

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has fueled the expansion of power grids.Power transformers are key equipment in power grid projects,and their price changes have a significant impact on cost control.However,the prices of power transformer materials manifest as nonsmooth and nonlinear sequences.Hence,estimating the acquisition costs of power grid projects is difficult,hindering the normal operation of power engineering construction.To more accurately predict the price of power transformer materials,this study proposes a method based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMD)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)network.First,the CEEMD decomposed the price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions(IMFs).Multiple IMFs were clustered to obtain several aggregated sequences based on the sample entropy of each IMF.Then,an empirical wavelet transform(EWT)was applied to the aggregation sequence with a large sample entropy,and the multiple subsequences obtained from the decomposition were predicted by the GRU model.The GRU model was used to directly predict the aggregation sequences with a small sample entropy.In this study,we used authentic historical pricing data for power transformer materials to validate the proposed approach.The empirical findings demonstrated the efficacy of our method across both datasets,with mean absolute percentage errors(MAPEs)of less than 1%and 3%.This approach holds a significant reference value for future research in the field of power transformer material price prediction.

Stock Price Prediction Based on the Bi-GRU-Attention Model

The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest for further in-depth mining and research. Mathematical statistics methods struggle to deal with nonlinear relationships in practical applications, making it difficult to explore deep information about stocks. Meanwhile, machine learning methods, particularly neural network models and composite models, which have achieved outstanding results in other fields, are being applied to the stock market with significant results. However, researchers have found that these methods do not grasp the essential information of the data as well as expected. In response to these issues, researchers are exploring better neural network models and combining them with other methods to analyze stock data. Thus, this paper proposes the ABiGRU composite model, which combines the attention mechanism and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (GRU) that can effectively extract data features for stock price prediction research. Models such as LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM are selected for comparative experiments. To ensure the credibility and representativeness of the research data, daily stock price indices of BYD are chosen for closing price prediction studies across different models. The results show that the ABiGRU model has a lower prediction error and better fitting effect on three index-based stock prices, enhancing the learning efficiency of the neural network model and demonstrating good prediction stability. This suggests that the ABiGRU model is highly adaptable for stock price prediction.

A Multimodel Transfer-Learning-Based Car Price Prediction Model with an Automatic Fuzzy Logic Parameter Optimizer

Cars are regarded as an indispensable means of transportation in Taiwan.Several studies have indicated that the automotive industry has witnessed remarkable advances and that the market of used cars has rapidly expanded.In this study,a price prediction system for used BMW cars was developed.Nine parameters of used cars,including their model,registration year,and transmission style,were analyzed.The data obtained were then divided into three subsets.The first subset was used to compare the results of each algorithm.The predicted values produced by the two algorithms with the most satisfactory results were used as the input of a fully connected neural network.The second subset was used with an optimization algorithm to modify the number of hidden layers in a fully connected neural network and modify the low,medium,and high parameters of the membership function(MF)to achieve model optimization.Finally,the third subset was used for the validation set during the prediction process.These three subsets were divided using k-fold cross-validation to avoid overfitting and selection bias.In conclusion,in this study,a model combining two optimal algorithms(i.e.,random forest and k-nearest neighbors)with several optimization algorithms(i.e.,gray wolf optimizer,multilayer perceptron,and MF)was successfully established.The prediction results obtained indicated a mean square error of 0.0978,a root-mean-square error of 0.3128,a mean absolute error of 0.1903,and a coefficient of determination of 0.9249.

Price Prediction of Seasonal Items Using Time Series Analysis

The price prediction task is a well-studied problem due to its impact on the business domain.There are several research studies that have been conducted to predict the future price of items by capturing the patterns of price change,but there is very limited work to study the price prediction of seasonal goods(e.g.,Christmas gifts).Seasonal items’prices have different patterns than normal items;this can be linked to the offers and discounted prices of seasonal items.This lack of research studies motivates the current work to investigate the problem of seasonal items’prices as a time series task.We proposed utilizing two different approaches to address this problem,namely,1)machine learning(ML)-based models and 2)deep learning(DL)-based models.Thus,this research tuned a set of well-known predictive models on a real-life dataset.Those models are ensemble learning-based models,random forest,Ridge,Lasso,and Linear regression.Moreover,two new DL architectures based on gated recurrent unit(GRU)and long short-term memory(LSTM)models are proposed.Then,the performance of the utilized ensemble learning and classic ML models are compared against the proposed two DL architectures on different accuracy metrics,where the evaluation includes both numerical and visual comparisons of the examined models.The obtained results show that the ensemble learning models outperformed the classic machine learning-based models(e.g.,linear regression and random forest)and the DL-based models.

Predicting Future Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Cryptocurrency price prediction has garnered significant attention due to the growing importance of digital assets in the financial landscape. This paper presents a comprehensive study on predicting future cryptocurrency prices using machine learning algorithms. Open-source historical data from various cryptocurrency exchanges is utilized. Interpolation techniques are employed to handle missing data, ensuring the completeness and reliability of the dataset. Four technical indicators are selected as features for prediction. The study explores the application of five machine learning algorithms to capture the complex patterns in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. The findings demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the different approaches, highlighting the significance of feature engineering and algorithm selection in achieving accurate cryptocurrency price predictions. The research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic and rapidly evolving field of cryptocurrency price prediction, assisting investors and traders in making informed decisions amidst the challenges posed by the cryptocurrency market.

A Novel Cryptocurrency Prediction Method Using Optimum CNN

In recent years,cryptocurrency has become gradually more significant in economic regions worldwide.In cryptocurrencies,records are stored using a cryptographic algorithm.The main aim of this research was to develop an optimal solution for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies based on user opinions from social media.Twitter is used as a marketing tool for cryptoanalysis owing to the unrestricted conversations on cryptocurrencies that take place on social media channels.Therefore,this work focuses on extracting Tweets and gathering data from different sources to classify them into positive,negative,and neutral categories,and further examining the correlations between cryptocurrency movements and Tweet sentiments.This paper proposes an optimized method using a deep learning algorithm and convolution neural network for cryptocurrency prediction;this method is used to predict the prices of four cryptocurrencies,namely,Litecoin,Monero,Bitcoin,and Ethereum.The results of analyses demonstrate that the proposed method forecasts prices with a high accuracy of about 98.75%.The method is validated by comparison with existing methods using visualization tools.

ARIMA and Facebook Prophet Model in Google Stock Price Prediction

We use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model and Facebook Prophet model to predict the closing stock price of Google during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as compare the accuracy of these two models’predictions.We first examine the stationary of the dataset and use ARIMA(0,1,1)to make predictions about the stock price during the pandemic,then we train the Prophet model using the stock price before January 1,2021,and predict the stock price after January 1,2021,to present.We also make a comparison of the prediction graphs of the two models.The empirical results show that the ARIMA model has a better performance in predicting Google’s stock price during the pandemic.

Price Prediction of Seasonal Items Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods

Price prediction of goods is a vital point of research due to how common e-commerce platforms are.There are several efforts conducted to forecast the price of items using classicmachine learning algorithms and statisticalmodels.These models can predict prices of various financial instruments,e.g.,gold,oil,cryptocurrencies,stocks,and second-hand items.Despite these efforts,the literature has no model for predicting the prices of seasonal goods(e.g.,Christmas gifts).In this context,we framed the task of seasonal goods price prediction as a regression problem.First,we utilized a real online trailer dataset of Christmas gifts and then we proposed several machine learningbased models and one statistical-based model to predict the prices of these seasonal products.Second,we utilized a real-life dataset of Christmas gifts for the prediction task.Then,we proposed support vector regressor(SVR),linear regression,random forest,and ridgemodels as machine learningmodels for price prediction.Next,we proposed an autoregressive-integrated-movingaverage(ARIMA)model for the same purpose as a statistical-based model.Finally,we evaluated the performance of the proposed models;the comparison shows that the best performing model was the random forest model,followed by the ARIMA model.

Stock Price Prediction Using Predictive Error Compensation Wavelet Neural Networks

:Machine Learning(ML)algorithms have been widely used for financial time series prediction and trading through bots.In this work,we propose a Predictive Error Compensated Wavelet Neural Network(PEC-WNN)ML model that improves the prediction of next day closing prices.In the proposed model we use multiple neural networks where the first one uses the closing stock prices from multiple-scale time-domain inputs.An additional network is used for error estimation to compensate and reduce the prediction error of the main network instead of using recurrence.The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using six different stock data samples in the New York stock exchange.The results have demonstrated significant improvement in forecasting accuracy in all cases when the second network is used in accordance with the first one by adding the outputs.The RMSE error is 33%improved when the proposed PEC-WNN model is used compared to the Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)model.Furthermore,through the analysis of training mechanisms,we found that using the updated training the performance of the proposed model is improved.The contribution of this study is the applicability of simultaneously different time frames as inputs.Cascading the predictive error compensation not only reduces the error rate but also helps in avoiding overfitting problems.

A Comprehensive Price Prediction System Based on Inverse Multiquadrics Radial Basis Function for Portfolio Selection

Price prediction plays a crucial role in portfolio selection (PS). However, most price prediction strategies only make a single prediction and do not have efficient mechanisms to make a comprehensive price prediction. Here, we propose a comprehensive price prediction (CPP) system based on inverse multiquadrics (IMQ) radial basis function. First, the novel radial basis function (RBF) system based on IMQ function rather than traditional Gaussian (GA) function is proposed and centers on multiple price prediction strategies, aiming at improving the efficiency and robustness of price prediction. Under the novel RBF system, we then create a portfolio update strategy based on kernel and trace operator. To assess the system performance, extensive experiments are performed based on 4 data sets from different real-world financial markets. Interestingly, the experimental results reveal that the novel RBF system effectively realizes the integration of different strategies and CPP system outperforms other systems in investing performance and risk control, even considering a certain degree of transaction costs. Besides, CPP can calculate quickly, making it applicable for large-scale and time-limited financial market.

Predicting Bitcoin Trends Through Machine Learning Using Sentiment Analysis with Technical Indicators

Predicting Bitcoin price trends is necessary because they represent the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market.As the history of the Bitcoin market is short and price volatility is high,studies have been conducted on the factors affecting changes in Bitcoin prices.Experiments have been conducted to predict Bitcoin prices using Twitter content.However,the amount of data was limited,and prices were predicted for only a short period(less than two years).In this study,data from Reddit and LexisNexis,covering a period of more than four years,were collected.These data were utilized to estimate and compare the performance of the six machine learning techniques by adding technical and sentiment indicators to the price data along with the volume of posts.An accuracy of 90.57%and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value(AUC)of 97.48%were obtained using the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost).It was shown that the use of both sentiment index using valence aware dictionary and sentiment reasoner(VADER)and 11 technical indicators utilizing moving average,relative strength index(RSI),stochastic oscillators in predicting Bitcoin price trends can produce significant results.Thus,the input features used in the paper can be applied on Bitcoin price prediction.Furthermore,this approach allows investors to make better decisions regarding Bitcoin-related investments.

Bitcoin:Exploring Price Predictability and the Impact of Investor Sentiment

This article addresses the predictability of Bitcoin’s price by examining relationships between Bitcoin and financial and emotional variables such as the Fear and Greed Index(FGI),the American Interest Rate(FED),and the Stock Market Index(NASDAQ).Through the use of statistical techniques such as the Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality,as well as forecasting models,the study reveals that,despite the notorious volatility of the cryptocurrency market,it is possible to identify consistent behavioral patterns that can be successfully used to predict Bitcoin returns.The approach that combines VAR models and neural networks stands out as an effective tool to assist investors and analysts in making informed decisions in an ever-changing market environment.

Used car price prediction based on XGBoost and retention rate

In order to improve the accuracy of used car price prediction,a machine learning prediction model based on the retention rate is proposed in this paper.Firstly,a random forest algorithm is used to filter the variables in the data.Seven main characteristic variables that affect used car prices,such as new car price,service time,mileage and so on,are filtered out.Then,the linear regression classification method is introduced to classify the test data into high and low retention rate data.After that,the extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)regression model is built for the two datasets respectively.The prediction results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of the proposed model is 0.548,which is significantly improved compared to 0.488 of the original XGBoost model.Finally,compared with other representative machine learning algorithms,this model shows certain advantages in terms of mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),5%accuracy rate and comprehensive evaluation index.As a result,the retention rate-based machine learning model established in this paper has significant advantages in terms of the accuracy of used car price prediction.

Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Stock Price Prediction: Leveraging LSTM for Real-Time Forecasting

The research focuses on improving predictive accuracy in the financial sector through the exploration of machine learning algorithms for stock price prediction. The research follows an organized process combining Agile Scrum and the Obtain, Scrub, Explore, Model, and iNterpret (OSEMN) methodology. Six machine learning models, namely Linear Forecast, Naive Forecast, Simple Moving Average with weekly window (SMA 5), Simple Moving Average with monthly window (SMA 20), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are compared and evaluated through Mean Absolute Error (MAE), with the LSTM model performing the best, showcasing its potential for practical financial applications. A Django web application “Predict It” is developed to implement the LSTM model. Ethical concerns related to predictive modeling in finance are addressed. Data quality, algorithm choice, feature engineering, and preprocessing techniques are emphasized for better model performance. The research acknowledges limitations and suggests future research directions, aiming to equip investors and financial professionals with reliable predictive models for dynamic markets.

ARIMA Model in the Application of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Index

In the paper, based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index in 2011, the ARIMA model was established by using Eviews 6, and the historical trend of stock price was found out. The model was used to provide a reference for the investors.

CPPCNDL: Crude oil price prediction using complex network and deep learning algorithms

Crude oil price prediction is a challenging task in oil producing countries.Its price is among the most complex and tough to model because fluctuations of price of crude oil are highly irregular,nonlinear and varies dynamically with high uncertainty.This paper proposed a hybrid model for crude oil price prediction that uses the complex network analysis and long short-term memory(LSTM)of the deep learning algorithms.The complex network analysis tool called the visibility graph is used to map the dataset on a network and K-core centrality was employed to extract the non-linearity features of crude oil and reconstruct the dataset.The complex network analysis is carried out in order to preprocess the original data to extract the non-linearity features and to reconstruct the data.Thereafter,LSTM was employed to model the reconstructed data.To verify the result,we compared the empirical results with other research in the literature.The experiments show that the proposed model has higher accuracy,and is more robust and reliable.

Application of LSTM model optimized by individual-ordering- basedadaptivegeneticalgorithmin stock forecasting

Purpose-To improve the accuracy of stock price trend prediction in the field of quantitative financial trading,this paper takes the prediction accuracy as the goal and avoid the enormous number of network structures and hyperparameter adjustments of long-short-term memory(LSTM).Design/methodology/approach-In this paper,an adaptive genetic algorithm based on individual ordering is used to optimize the network structure and hyperparameters of the LSTM neural network automatically.Findings-The simulation results show that the accuracy of the rise and fall of the stock outperform than the model with LSTM only as well as other machine learning models.Furthermore,the efficiency of parameter adjustment is greatly higher than other hyperparameter optimization methods.Originality/value-(1)The AGA-LSTM algorithm is used to input various hyperparameter combinations into genetic algorithm to find the best hyperparameter combination.Compared with other models,it has higher accuracy in predicting the up and down trend of stock prices in the next day.(2)Adopting real coding,elitist preservation and self-adaptive adjustment of crossover and mutation probability based on individual ordering in the part of genetic algorithm,the algorithm is computationally efficient and the results are more likely to converge to the global optimum.

A Refueling Scheme Optimization Model for the Voyage Charter with Fuel Price Fluctuation and Ship Deployment Consideration

Due to the long operation cycle of maritime transportation and frequent fluctuations of the bunker fuel price, the refueling expenditure of a chartered ship at different time or ports of call make significant difference. From the perspective of shipping company, an optimal set of refueling schemes for a ship fleet operating on different voyage charter routes is an important decision. To address this issue, this paper presents an approach to optimize the refueling scheme and the ship deployment simultaneously with considering the trend of fuel price fluctuations. Firstly, an ARMA model is applied to forecast a time serials of the fuel prices. Then a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to maximize total operating profit of the shipping company. Finally, a case study on a charter company with three bulk carriers and three voyage charter routes is conducted. The results show that the optimal solution saves the cost of 437,900 USD compared with the traditional refueling scheme, and verify the rationality and validity of the model.