Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China

This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.

Factors Influencing Price of Agricultural Products and Stability Countermeasures

Factors leading to rise of prices of agricultural products mainly include tension of supply-demand relationship,promotion of production cost and circulation cost,and speculation of Refugee Capital(Hot Money).Factors leading to low price and difficult sales of agricultural products mainly include asymmetry of supply-demand information,lack of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products and decentralized and small-scaled operation of farmers.On the basis of these factors,this paper presents following countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing prices of agricultural products:firstly,building long-effect mechanism for production and sales of agricultural products;secondly,expand the production and increase supply of agricultural products;thirdly,control the rising range of production cost for agricultural products;fourthly,enhance organization level of farmers;fifthly,promote innovation and development of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products.

Application of GARCH Model in Research on Price of Agricultural Products

Taking the price of grain in Guizhou Province as an example, by establishing GARCH model, I calculate VAR of logarithm return of grain price index, in order to conduct research on the variation law of price of the agricultural products. The results show that VAR of grain in Guizhou has variation. After the year 2010, VAR value is gradually increasing, and the price variation risk of grain market tends to increase progressively. Based on the characteristics of grain price variation, a series of corresponding proposals are put forward to stabilize the grain price as follows: strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction, and promote the agricultural overall production capacity; reinforce the market supervision on the circulation field of agricultural products, and maintain market order; improve regulation system of agricultural products, and stabilize the price of agricultural products; strengthen mobility regulation, and prevent a flood of speculative cash.

The Spillover Effect between Futures and Spot Price of Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Soybean Products of China

Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

Production Chain Length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

International Comparison,Regional Characteristics and Regulatory Management of Structural Rise in the Prices of Chinese Industrial and Agricultural Products

China's price fluctuations increasingly exhibit significant structural characteristics,and since 2003,there have been several rounds of significant structural price rise.The degree of structural rise in the prices of industrial and agricultural products in China is not only higher than in the general developed countries and developing countries,but also more prominent than in other transition economies.And the structural rise in the prices of Chinese industrial and agricultural products exhibits significant economic zone differences:the structural fluctuations are the greatest in the central and western regions,significantly higher than in the eastern regions as well as the national average.From the perspective of causes of structural rise in the prices of Chinese industrial and agricultural products,the government must aim to coordinate the industrial and agricultural investments and bridge the gap in the industrial and agricultural technologies and supply capacity.

The Price Model of Aquatic Products Based on Predictive Control Theory

This paper discusses a disequilibrium cobweb model of price of aquatic products, and applies predictive control theory, so that the system operates stably, and the deviation between supply and demand of aquatic products smoothly tracks the pre-given target. It defines the supply and demand change model, and researches the impact of parameter selection in this model on dynamic state and robustness of the system. I conduct simulation by Matlab software, to get the response curve of this model. The results show that in the early period of commodities coming into the market, affected by lack of market information and many other factors, the price fluctuates greatly in a short time. The market will gradually achieve balance between supply and demand over time, and the price fluctuations in the neighbouring two periods are broadly consistent. The increase in model parameter can decrease overshoot, to promote the stability of system, but the slower the dynamic response, the longer the deviation between supply and demand to accurately track a given target. Therefore, by selecting different parameters, the decision-makers can establish different models of supply and demand changes to meet the actual needs, and ensure stable development of market. Simulation results verify the excellent performance of this algorithm.

Pricing Power of China's Cocoon and Silk Products in International Market:An Empirical Analysis Based on International Market Power

Do China＇s silk products only have advantage in number but no pricing power in international market？ In this paper, we used the residual demand elasticity model to estimate the international market power of China＇s silk products. The empirical results revealed that China＇s raw material products such as natural silk products and semi-finished products such as satin products had certain market power in the main export markets, but the finished silk products such as woman＇s blouse or shirts and shawls had no market power in the target markets including USA and Germany. The scale economy from resource endowment and great market share are the base of the international market power of natural silk products. The advantage from industry agglomeration and great market share are the source of the international market power of satin products. Technical bottlenecks and inefficiency in brand building are the cause of unobvious international market power of China＇s finished silk products, and the competition from Italy and France has increased the difficulty to enhance market power. In order to consolidate and improve the international market power of China＇s silk products, it is suggested to stabilize the production scale and strengthen industrial base, to speed up the resources integration and optimize the industrial distribution, to strengthen science and technology innovation and adjust product structure, to speed up the brand construction and enhance the influence of brand, and to enlarge the scale of organization and achieve scale economies.

A Three-Stage Stochastic Dynamic Pricing Game Model Affected by New Products into the Market

In real-life marketing, a common phenomenon is that the prices of current product will have been cut down even the new product has not gone into market yet. Thus, it is very important for merchant to set the strategy which can make the excepted revenue maximum. So, this paper constructs a three-stage stochastic dynamic pricing game model for analyzing the influence of the uncertainty of entry timing of the new products on pricing of products being sold. By analyzing of the pricing strategy, there are big differences in the predictions of new product going into market between merchant and customers;the merchant will adopt cutting price for promotion strategy to reduce negative influence of the new products on the demand of the products sold now. Otherwise, the merchant will adopt the strategy of maximizing current period’s profit.

Ordering and Pricing Strategies for Fresh Products with Multiple Quality Levels Considering Consumer Utility

In this paper, considering a scenario in which there are two quality levels of fresh products and introduction of consumer utility function, we studied the optimal ordering and pricing strategies under certain quantity. Our results showed that, facing the two quality levels of fresh products, retailers would not benefit from sales of lower quality of fresh products with the deterministic demand. In the pursuit of profit maximization, the initial order quantity is smaller than the potential demand for market.

Price Discrimination of Film Products and Building of Hierarchical Market under the Background of “Internet Plus”

Price Discrimination of film products is theoretically feasible and logically inevitable, and it has been used for a long time in film industry as well. However, there are practical paradoxes in the new environment due to market factors like popularization of Internet environment and Online to Offline(O2O) retailers between hierarchical markets. Compared with high-level markets, low-level markets are lack of conditions for differentiated lower price like cinema infrastructure, and environment for film consumption market, so that the consumption potential for market has not been motivated yet. Therefore, it is quite important to pay close attention to how to expand the market by clearer gradient pricing structures and Internet platform.

Impact and Policy Implications of Swine Epidemic on Price Fluctuation of Livestock Products in China

The drastic price fluctuation of livestock products caused by frequent swine epidemics has seriously affected the stable and healthy development of the livestock product market.It is important to develop strategies for the stability and development of livestock product market by understanding the impact of swine epidemic on the price of livestock products.Therefore,we systematically analyzed the impact of the swine epidemic on the price of livestock products in China based on monthly data from February 2009 to July 2020 using the factor augmented vector autoregression(FAVAR)model.The results showed that:(i)During the swine epidemic,the price of pork first showed a negative response and then a positive response,while the price of other livestock products showed positive response overall.(ii)The price of pork was the most affected by the swine epidemic,followed by price of chicken.Price fluctuation of beef and mutton was similar,and the price response of eggs and fresh milk was relatively smaller.Based on these results,we put forward policy suggestions for stabilizing the price of livestock products in China during swine epidemic from the aspects of improving the defense system and guiding consumption scientifically.

Regulating and Controlling the Rising Prices of Geographical Indication Products in Inflation——taking Geographical Indication Products from Chongqing as an Example

Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geographical indication goods have their own necessities.From the perspective of the products,they are equipped with appreciation potential due to the cultural pe culiarities.From the historical standpoint,their prices have not been high as well as other agricultural products.Realistically,the increase in their prices results from the costs of labors and raw materials.Therefore,the prices of geographical indication products rise to catch up.Not only are their prices at a reasonable level,but also they are beneficial to increase peasants'income.In con clusion,it is necessary that the strategies which are different from those of other products be adopted to regulate and control the prices of geographical indication products.

Prices of Rare Earth Products Tend to Rise(Continued)

8. Ji Daiyu, General Manager of Baotou Xinyuan RareEarth Hi-Tech Materials Co. LtdControl gross to stabilize prices. Chinese rare earth is precious strategic resource. The more it is exploit, the less it will be. The State has put forward rare earth policy of "strengthen management, protect resource, develop scientifically and face international". Chinese rare

Stability analysis of intermediate product dynamic price in two-level supply chain

In two cases that upstream and downstream firms have the decision power of intermediate product prices in a two-level supply chain,the dynamic pricing mechanism of intermediate products is studied.When a party who has the decision power of pricing gives prices of intermediate products,the other side will give the supply or demand quantity of intermediate products which maximizes its own profits,then the party who decides price has two pricing strategies.One uses the matching price which meets the other party's demand or supply needs according to the prices of intermediate products in the next cycle.The other uses the convex combinations of the current price and the matching price which satisfies the other party's demand or supply as the price of the intermediate product in the next cycle.No matter which side has the decision power of intermediate product prices between upstream and downstream firms,results show that in the first pricing strategy,only in one case of the pricing of intermediate products stable;but in the second pricing strategy,both of the cases of pricing of intermediate products are stable in a certain field of combined parameters.

Changes in Net Barter Terms of Trade for Sino-Australian Agricultural Products after China's Accession to the WTO

Using " chain-based and constant-based" two-step method,this paper measured Paasche net barter terms of trade index for SinoAustralian agricultural products from 2001 to 2013,and further calculated contribution of each category of agricultural products to changes in overall net barter terms of trade. The results showed that since 2001,the overall net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products fluctuated between deterioration and improvement. In 2013,the net barter terms of trade index was 1. 02,and its improvement is not significant. From 2001 to 2013,the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products improved about 16. 44%,which dominated by the category 0 agricultural products whose influence degree is 6 times and 28 times the degree of category 4 and category 1. In years when the net barter terms of trade for Sino-Australian agricultural products deteriorated,category 2 agricultural products were the root cause for the deterioration.

Production Decision Based on Discounted Price and Delivery Frequency for Garment Original Equipment Manufacturer with Constrained Capacity

Original equipment manufacturers(OEM) have never been so important and powerful as it is today in garment manufacturing industry.The OEMsupplier's production decisions always have a great impact on the market performance and the profits of a garment brand manufacturer.With constrained capacity and multiply buyers,howto make reasonable production decisions is an urgent problem for OEMsuppliers.A price discount model with a single OEMsupplier and two buyers is proposed to deal with the problem.Based on this model,the OEMsupplier could satisfy buyers' demands and guarantee their profits as well through adjusting price and delivery frequency.A numerical example validates the validity of the model.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.