A Probabilistic Method for Motion Analysis of Caisson Breakwaters

It is assumed that, during the design period, the waves acting on breakwaters are divided into three types： standing wave, broken wave and breaking wave,and the wave heights fit the Rayleigh distribution while the water depths, wave periods and duration of breaking wave impact force fit normal distribution. Based on the random samples of water depths, wave heights, wave periods and duration of breaking wave impact force, the types of waves acting on breakwaters are distinguished and the time-history model of the wave force is determined. The motions of caisson breakwaters under the wave force are simulated by a dynamic numerical model and the statistic characteristics of the dynamic responses are analyzed with the Monte Carlo method. A probabilistic procedure to analyze the motion of the breakwater is developed therein. The procedure is illustrated by an example.

Multi-Branch Cable Harness Layout Design Based on Genetic Algorithm with Probabilistic Roadmap Method

Current studies on cable harness layouts have mainly focused on cable harness route planning.However,the topological structure of a cable harness is also extremely complex,and the branch structure of the cable harness can affect the route of the cable harness layout.The topological structure design of the cable harness is a key to such a layout.In this paper,a novel multi-branch cable harness layout design method is presented,which unites the probabilistic roadmap method(PRM)and the genetic algorithm.First,the engineering constraints of the cable harness layout are presented.An obstacle-based PRM used to construct non-interference and near to the surface roadmap is then described.In addition,a new genetic algorithm is proposed,and the algorithm structure of which is redesigned.In addition,the operation probability formula related to fitness is proposed to promote the efficiency of the branch structure design of the cable harness.A prototype system of a cable harness layout design was developed based on the method described in this study,and the method is applied to two scenarios to verify that a quality cable harness layout can be efficiently obtained using the proposed method.In summary,the cable harness layout design method described in this study can be used to quickly design a reasonable topological structure of a cable harness and to search for the corresponding routes of such a harness.

PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY OF LOW CYCLE FATIGUE ANALYSIS

The cyclic stress-strain responses (CSSR), Neuber's rule (NR) and cyclic strain-life relation (CSLR) are treated as probabilistic curves in local stress and strain method of low cycle fatigue analysis. The randomness of loading and the theory of fatigue damage accumulation (TOFDA) are considered. The probabilistic analysis of local stress, local strain and fatigue life are constructed based on the first-order Taylor's series expansions. Through this method proposed fatigue reliability analysis can be accomplished.

Probabilistic QOS Aware Congestion Control in Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks

The general problem faced in the field of Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks (WMSNs) is congestion. The most common method in the area of WMSNs to minimize congestion is traffic control. Quality Of Service (QOS) is widely used in WMSNs to guarantee preferential service for critical applications by controlling end-to-end delay, reducing data loss and by providing adequate bandwidth. The present work is on Probabilistic QOS Aware Congestion Control (PQACC) which employs probabilistic method based congestion prediction and priority based data transmission rate adjustment, where inelastic real-time traffic and elastic non-real-time traffic are treated separately. Using the present PQACC approach, average throughput, average source-to-sink delay and average packet loss probability are improved by 9%, 10.33% and 16.03% compared to EWPBRC and achieved 5.97%, 7.05% and 11.69% improvement compared to FEWPBRC. Simulation result reveals that, congestion is effectively predicted, controlled and provides necessary level of QOS in terms of delay, throughput and packet loss, hence making this approach possible in mission critical applications.

Finite element model with imposed slip surfaces for earth mass safety evaluation

The study of earth masses requires numerical methods that provide the quantification of the safety factor without requiring detrimental assumptions. For that, equilibrium analysis can perform fast computations but require assumptions that limit its potentiality. Limit analysis does not require detrimental assumptions but are numerically demanding. This work provides a new approach that combines the advantage of both the equilibrium method and the limit analysis. The defined hybrid model allows probabilistic analysis and optimization approaches without the assumption of interslice forces. It is compared with a published case and used to perform probabilistic studies in both a homogeneous and a layered foundation. Analyses show that the shape of the density probability functions is highly relevant when computing the probability of failure, and soil elasticity hardly affects the safety of factor of the earth mass.

复合材料层合板屈曲载荷计算的区间分析算法(英文)

A method named interval analysis method, which solves the buckling load of composite laminate with uncertainties, is presented. Based on interval mathematics and Taylor series expansion, the interval analysis method is used to deal with uncertainties. Not necessarily knowing the probabilistic statistics characteristics of the uncertain variables, only little information on physical properties of material is needed in the interval analysis method, that is, the upper bound and lower bound of the uncertain variable. So the interval of response of the structure can be gotten through less computational efforts. The interval analysis method is efficient under the condition that probability approach cannot work well because of small samples and deficient statistics characteristics. For buckling load of a special cross-ply laminates and antisymmetric angle-ply laminates with all edges simply supported, calculations and comparisons between interval analysis method and probability method are performed.

Reliability Sensitivity-based Correlation Coefficient Calculation in Structural Reliability Analysis

The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view,the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity,and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown.The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed.Numerical studies have shown the following results：（1） If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than（at what magnitude 0.000 01）,then the correlation could be ignored,which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error.（2） However,as the difference between ρs,that is the most sensitive to the reliability,and ρR,that is with the smallest reliability,is less than 0.001,ρs is suggested to model the dependency of random variables.This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement.（3） In the case of ｜Eabs｜ρ0.001 and also ｜Erel｜ρ0.001,ρR should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis.Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.

Seismic hazard analysis for central-western Argentina

In this study, we present a PSHA（Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis） for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina（30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W）. In addition to crustal earthquakes provided by catalogues, recent paleoseismological and neotectonic investigations have permitted to consider events which occurred during the last 400 years.Four seismogenic sources that could cause damages to the studied site corresponding to Precordillera,Western Sierras Pampeanas, Basement of the Cuyana Basin and Cordillera Principal were identified.Based on the evaluation of the contribution of these sources,maximum moment magnitudes above 7.5（Mw） are expected.High values of SA（spectral acceleration）（0.2 and 1 s periods） and PGA（peak ground acceleration） were found in the city of San Juan, which suggests that it is located in a zone of high seismic hazard.Finally, the obtained SA spectra were compared with the seismic-resistant construction standards of Argentina INPRES-CIRSOC 103 [1]. Results suggest that for the city of San Juan and for a return period of475 years, it covers the seismic requirements of the structures.

Prediction of the solidification structure of casting and heterogeneous nucleation

The frequency of heterogeneous nucleation during the solidification of Al-Sibinary alloy was estimated by comparing experimentally obtained macrostructures of castings withnumerically simulated ones. A molten alloy was unidirectionally solidified from a water-cooledcopper chill in an adiabatic mold. The location of columnar to equiaxed transition (CET) in thesolidified alloy ingot was measured. A numerical simulation for grain structure formation based onthe Monte Carlo method was carried out, and the frequency of heterogeneous nucleation in the alloywas evaluated by producing similar structure with the experimental one. The frequency ofheterogeneous nucleation was expressed as a probabilistic function with an exponential form ofundercooling that deter-mines the probability of nucleation event in the simulation. The value ofthe exponent is regarded as the nucleation parameter. The nucleation parameter of Al-Si binary alloyvaried with initial Si content.

Estimating the expected value of multiple prospects in bidding blocks

In recent years,China has accelerated the reform of its oil and gas management system,especially in competitive transfer of mining rights.Evaluating the expected value(EV)of lease blocks is crucial for the bidding decision of oil companies.When bidding for a block with several individual prospects,the simple addition of each prospect EV usually leads to overly high and optimistic resource volume and value estimates.For the assessment of the EV of a multi-prospect block,two factors should be considered.Firstly,the geological setting of the prospects,including their relative spatial relationship,their chance of geological success,their resources and their geological dependency,etc.The second factor is the exploration strategy of oil companies,concerned with the dry hole tolerance,the committed wells and the drilling priorities for the prospects,etc.A probabilistic method to assess the EV of a multi-prospect block is proposed,which proves to be favorable for formulating a bidding strategy for oil companies.In addition,a case study on two specific blocks with several prospects is presented to illustrate the effect of the above mentioned factors on the EV.

Probabilistic description of extreme oscillations and reliability analysis in rolling motion under stochastic excitation

Large-amplitude rolling motions, also regarded as extreme oscillations, are a great threat to marine navigation, which may lead to capsizing in ship motion. Therefore, it is important to quantify extreme oscillations, assess reliability of ship systems, and establish a suitable indicator to characterize extreme oscillations in ship systems. In this work, extreme events are investigated in a ship model considering a complex ocean environment, described by a single-degree-of-freedom nonlinear system with stochastic harmonic excitation and colored Gaussian noise. The stationary probability density function(PDF) of the system is derived through a probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method. Based on this, we infer the classical damage rate of the system. Furthermore, a new indicator, independent of the PDF, is proposed to quantify the damage related only to the fourth-order moment of the system and the threshold for extreme events. It is more universal and easier to determine as compared with the classical damage rate. A large damping ratio, a large noise intensity, or a short correlation time can reduce the damage rate and the value of the indicator.These findings provide new insights and theoretical guidance to avoid extreme oscillations and assess the reliability of practical ship movements.

Probabilistic uncertain linguistic TODIM method based on the generalized Choquet integral and its application

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to develop a probabilistic uncertain linguistic(PUL)TODIM method based on the generalized Choquet integral,with respect to the interdependencies between criteria,for the selection of the best alternate in the context of multiple criteria group decision-making(MCGDM).Design/methodology/approach-Owing to decision makers(DMs)do not always show completely rational and may have the preference of bounded rational behavior,this may affect the result of the MCGDM.At the same time,criteria interaction is a focused issue in MCGDM.Hence,a novel TODIM method based on the generalized Choquet integral selects the best alternate using PUL evaluation,where the generalized Choquet integral is used to calculate the weight of criterion.The generalized PUL distance measure between two probabilistic uncertain linguistic elements(PULEs)is calculated and the perceived dominance degree matrices for each alternate relative to other alternates are obtained.Furthermore,the comprehensive perceived dominance degree of each alternate can be calculated to get the ranking.Findings-Potential application of the PUL-TODIM method is demonstrated through an evaluation example with sensitivity and comparative analysis.Originality/value-As per author’s concern,there are no TODIM methods with probabilistic uncertain linguistic sets(PULTSs)to solve MCGDM problems under uncertainty.Compared with the result of existing methods,the final judgment value of alternates using the extended TODIM methodology is highly corroborated,which proves its potential in solving MCGDM problems under qualitative and quantitative environments.

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF ROCK FAILURE BEHAVIOUR USING AN INTEGRATION OF THE PROBABILISTIC COLLOCATION METHOD AND ELASTO-PLASTIC CELLULAR AUTOMATON

The Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion and probabilistic collocation method （PCM） are combined and applied to an uncertainty analysis of rock failure behavior by integrating a self- developed numerical method （i.e., the elastic-plastic cellular automaton （EPCA））. The results from the method developed are compared using the Monte Carlo Simulation （MCS） method. It is concluded that the method developed requires fewer collocations than MCS method to obtain very high accuracy and greatly reduces the computational cost. Based on the method, the elasto- plastic and elasto-brittle-plastic analyses of rocks under mechanical loadings are conducted to study the uncertainty in heterogeneous rock failure behaviour.

Probabilistic Constructions of B_2[g] Sequences

We use the probabilistic method to prove that for any positive integer g there exists an infinite B2[g] sequence A = {ak} such that ak ≤ k^2＋1/g（log k）^1/g＋0（1） as k→∞. The exponent 2＋1/g improves the previous one, 2 ＋ 2/g, obtained by Erdos and Renyi in 1960. We obtain a similar result for B2 [g] sequences of squares.

Conditional Simulation of Flow in Heterogeneous Porous Media with the Probabilistic Collocation Method

A stochastic approach to conditional simulation of flow in randomly heterogeneous media is proposed with the combination of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion and the probabilistic collocation method(PCM).The conditional log hydraulic conductivity field is represented with the Karhunen-Loeve expansion,in terms of some deterministic functions and a set of independent Gaussian random variables.The propagation of uncertainty in the flow simulations is carried out through the PCM,which relies on the efficient polynomial chaos expansion used to represent the flow responses such as the hydraulic head.With the PCM,existing flow simulators can be employed for uncertainty quantification of flow in heterogeneous porous media when direct measurements of hydraulic conductivity are taken into consideration.With illustration of several numerical examples of groundwater flow,this study reveals that the proposed approach is able to accurately quantify uncertainty of the flow responses conditioning on hydraulic conductivity data,while the computational efforts are significantly reduced in comparison to the Monte Carlo simulations.

A Comparative Study of Stochastic Collocation Methods for Flow in Spatially Correlated Random Fields

Stochastic collocation methods as a promising approach for solving stochastic partial differential equations have been developed rapidly in recent years.Similar to Monte Carlo methods,the stochastic collocation methods are non-intrusive in that they can be implemented via repetitive execution of an existing deterministic solver without modifying it.The choice of collocation points leads to a variety of stochastic collocation methods including tensor product method,Smolyak method,Stroud 2 or 3 cubature method,and adaptive Stroud method.Another type of collocation method,the probabilistic collocation method(PCM),has also been proposed and applied to flow in porous media.In this paper,we discuss these methods in terms of their accuracy,efficiency,and applicable range for flow in spatially correlated random fields.These methods are compared in details under different conditions of spatial variability and correlation length.This study reveals that the Smolyak method and the PCM outperform other stochastic collocation methods in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The random dimensionality in approximating input random fields plays a crucial role in the performance of the stochastic collocation methods.Our numerical experiments indicate that the required random dimensionality increases slightly with the decrease of correlation scale and moderately from one to multiple physical dimensions.

A Note on the Existence of Fractional f-factors in Random Graphs

Let G ： Gn,p be a binomial random graph with n vertices and edge probability p = p（n）, and f be a nonnegative integer-valued function defined on V（G） such that 0 〈 a ≤ f（x） ≤ b 〈 np- 2√nplogn for every E V（G）. An fractional f-indicator function is an function h that assigns to each edge of a graph G a number h（e） in [0, 1] so that for each vertex x, we have d^hG（x） = f（x）, where dh（x） = ∑ h（e） is the fractional degree xEe ofx inG. Set Eh = {e ： e e E（G） and h（e） ≠ 0}. IfGh isaspanningsubgraphofGsuchthat E（Gh） = Eh, then Gh is called an fractional f-factor of G. In this paper, we prove that for any binomial random graph Gn,p 2 with p 〉 n^-2/3, almost surely Gn,p contains an fractional f-factor.

Non-homogeneous Tb Theorem for Bi-parameter g-function

The main result of this paper is a bi-parameter Tb theorem for Littlewood-Paley g-function, where b is a tensor product of two pseudo-accretive function. Instead of the doubling measure, we work with a product measure μ = μn × μm, where the measures μn and μm are only assumed to be upper doubling. The main techniques of the proof include a bi-parameter b-adapted Haar function decomposition and an averaging identity over good double Whitney regions. Moreover, the non-homogeneous analysis and probabilistic methods are used again.

Lower Bounds of Size Ramsey Number for Graphs with Small Independence Number

Let r≥3 be an integer such that r−2 is a prime power and let H be a connected graph on n vertices with average degree at least d andα(H)≤βn,where 0<β<1 is a constant.We prove that the size Ramsey number R^(H;r)>nd2(r−2)2−Cn−−√for all sufficiently large n,where C is a constant depending only on r,d andβ.In particular,for integers k≥1,and r≥3 such that r−2 is a prime power,we have that there exists a constant C depending only on r and k such that R^(Pkn;r)>kn(r−2)2−Cn−−√−(k2+k)2(r−2)2 for all sufficiently large n,where P k n is the kth power of Pn.