Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may h...Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. (1) This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; (2) The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.展开更多
Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situati...Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is varied with seasons, seismic landslide hazard assessments are carried out for frequent, occasional and rare earthquake occurrences in the Tianshui region, which can provide a valuable reference for landslide hazard management and infrastructure design in mountainous seismic zones.展开更多
In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addit...In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addition to crustal earthquakes provided by catalogues, recent paleoseismological and neotectonic investigations have permitted to consider events which occurred during the last 400 years.Four seismogenic sources that could cause damages to the studied site corresponding to Precordillera,Western Sierras Pampeanas, Basement of the Cuyana Basin and Cordillera Principal were identified.Based on the evaluation of the contribution of these sources,maximum moment magnitudes above 7.5(Mw) are expected.High values of SA(spectral acceleration)(0.2 and 1 s periods) and PGA(peak ground acceleration) were found in the city of San Juan, which suggests that it is located in a zone of high seismic hazard.Finally, the obtained SA spectra were compared with the seismic-resistant construction standards of Argentina INPRES-CIRSOC 103 [1]. Results suggest that for the city of San Juan and for a return period of475 years, it covers the seismic requirements of the structures.展开更多
The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the eva...The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too. It can be seen that for those local sites along zone's border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.展开更多
Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is e...Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. (1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker (2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.展开更多
It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural perform...It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.展开更多
Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of ...Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in China.It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin 2021-2030.The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more details.The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes.This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable.There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and GMMs.The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments.The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.展开更多
This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history, purpose, usage, delimiting principles, various presenting forms and main specialties. Th...This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history, purpose, usage, delimiting principles, various presenting forms and main specialties. Then the viewpoints are emphasized, making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method. The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too. Large differences between these rwo concepts exist separately in their statistical property, actual meaning, gradation, required scale, and property of refusing to overlap each other, aim and usage of delimitation. But in current engineering practice, these two concepts are confused. On the one hand, it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up; on the other hand, researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment, mechanism of earthquake generating also pause to go ahead. Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper, that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting, it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and temporally inhomogeneous seismic activities, and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the concept of seismic belt.展开更多
This paper presents an effective means of analyzing the safety of a tunnel under dynamic loading in areas<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"...This paper presents an effective means of analyzing the safety of a tunnel under dynamic loading in areas<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">with seismic records. A particular case of the railway tunnel in the earthquake-prone regions of the escarpment seismic zone of Ethiopia was the specific focus area of the research. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deaggregation have been conducted to determine the design earthquake required as an input for the dynamic analysis. The PSHA</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">performed by considering the operating design earthquake with conservative assumptions of the local geological features resulted in a peak ground acceleration of 0.36. Two pairs of design earthquake have been obtained from the deaggregation process, which were used to filter acceleration time histories for the selected design earthquake from the ground motion database of Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Finally, full dynamic analyses of the tunnel have been performed by applying the scaled acceleration time histories corresponding to the structure in the specific site. It was demonstrated how to prove the stability of the tunnel located in difficult ground conditions by performing plane strain analyses with the possible minimum computational efforts.</span>展开更多
文中采用蒙特卡罗随机抽样方法,研发了一套融合传统二维潜在震源区(下文简称“潜源”)和三维断层源的概率地震危险性算法。该算法不仅适用于传统的区域面源,同时还能考虑地震的破裂尺度并兼容三维断层源的概率地震危险性计算。文中研发...文中采用蒙特卡罗随机抽样方法,研发了一套融合传统二维潜在震源区(下文简称“潜源”)和三维断层源的概率地震危险性算法。该算法不仅适用于传统的区域面源,同时还能考虑地震的破裂尺度并兼容三维断层源的概率地震危险性计算。文中研发的算法可高效实现断层源地震事件集的三维模拟,并将地震破裂尺度引入到概率地震危险性计算中,显著提高了近断层地区地震危险性计算的合理性。为了提高程序的执行效率,算法采用预先在平面潜源中充填网格点的方式随机模拟地震事件在潜源内的均匀分布。对于椭圆衰减的地震危险性计算,算法采用了预先构建不同震级、距离及不同场点与潜源长轴方向夹角下的短轴距的三维矩阵,通过查表和插值方式直接获得相应场点的短轴距,避免了循环迭代逼近短轴距计算效率低下的问题。分别利用五代图的概率地震危险性程序和文中研发的算法,计算了湖南长-株-潭(长沙-株洲-湘潭)城市群所处的中强地震活动环境的区域地震危险性以及近断层源的常德、株洲2个场点在不同概率水平下(重现期分别为50a、 475a和2 475a)的地震危险性。比较研究表明,五代图的程序低估了三维断层源附近的地震危险性,且随着概率水平的降低,低估的程度越来越高。最后,利用太平洋地震工程中心(Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, PEER)验证概率地震危险性程序的算例(数据集1案例10)验证了文中算法的可靠性。展开更多
为了厘定概率地震危险性分析方法在地震灾害风险调查与评估工作中的适用性,针对从化区,以中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2015)提供的信息为依托,给出其周边的潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,基于地震灾害风险普查资料...为了厘定概率地震危险性分析方法在地震灾害风险调查与评估工作中的适用性,针对从化区,以中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2015)提供的信息为依托,给出其周边的潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,基于地震灾害风险普查资料,利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法对其进行地震危险性分析。确定了对从化区地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,计算了从化区未来50年超越概率63%、10%、2%和100年超越概率1%的PGA分布,基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS)平台绘制了从化区4种概率下的基岩及地表地震动峰值加速度值分布图。结果表明:背景源(17)、广州、佛冈、河源、担杆岛、珠海和东莞潜在震源区对计算区内PGA起主要贡献;区内50年超越概率10%地表地震动分布中间高两边低。展开更多
The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spa...The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model.However,a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps(CanSHMs)obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable.The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs.In the present study,we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue.We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models.For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models,we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth.The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models.This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.展开更多
基金Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104065)Social Public Welfare Special Foundation of the Na-tional Research Institutes (2005DIB3J119).
文摘Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. (1) This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; (2) The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program (Grants No. 2018YFC1504601)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 41572313 and 41702343)China Geological Survey Project (Grant No. DD20190717)
文摘Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is varied with seasons, seismic landslide hazard assessments are carried out for frequent, occasional and rare earthquake occurrences in the Tianshui region, which can provide a valuable reference for landslide hazard management and infrastructure design in mountainous seismic zones.
文摘In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addition to crustal earthquakes provided by catalogues, recent paleoseismological and neotectonic investigations have permitted to consider events which occurred during the last 400 years.Four seismogenic sources that could cause damages to the studied site corresponding to Precordillera,Western Sierras Pampeanas, Basement of the Cuyana Basin and Cordillera Principal were identified.Based on the evaluation of the contribution of these sources,maximum moment magnitudes above 7.5(Mw) are expected.High values of SA(spectral acceleration)(0.2 and 1 s periods) and PGA(peak ground acceleration) were found in the city of San Juan, which suggests that it is located in a zone of high seismic hazard.Finally, the obtained SA spectra were compared with the seismic-resistant construction standards of Argentina INPRES-CIRSOC 103 [1]. Results suggest that for the city of San Juan and for a return period of475 years, it covers the seismic requirements of the structures.
基金Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (100110).
文摘The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statis-tical zone scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too. It can be seen that for those local sites along zone's border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.
文摘Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. (1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker (2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.
文摘It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.
基金sponsored by the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant Nos.DQJB22Z03 and DQJB22B25)。
文摘Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in China.It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin 2021-2030.The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more details.The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes.This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable.There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and GMMs.The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments.The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.
文摘This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history, purpose, usage, delimiting principles, various presenting forms and main specialties. Then the viewpoints are emphasized, making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method. The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too. Large differences between these rwo concepts exist separately in their statistical property, actual meaning, gradation, required scale, and property of refusing to overlap each other, aim and usage of delimitation. But in current engineering practice, these two concepts are confused. On the one hand, it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up; on the other hand, researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment, mechanism of earthquake generating also pause to go ahead. Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper, that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting, it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and temporally inhomogeneous seismic activities, and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the concept of seismic belt.
文摘This paper presents an effective means of analyzing the safety of a tunnel under dynamic loading in areas<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">with seismic records. A particular case of the railway tunnel in the earthquake-prone regions of the escarpment seismic zone of Ethiopia was the specific focus area of the research. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deaggregation have been conducted to determine the design earthquake required as an input for the dynamic analysis. The PSHA</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">performed by considering the operating design earthquake with conservative assumptions of the local geological features resulted in a peak ground acceleration of 0.36. Two pairs of design earthquake have been obtained from the deaggregation process, which were used to filter acceleration time histories for the selected design earthquake from the ground motion database of Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Finally, full dynamic analyses of the tunnel have been performed by applying the scaled acceleration time histories corresponding to the structure in the specific site. It was demonstrated how to prove the stability of the tunnel located in difficult ground conditions by performing plane strain analyses with the possible minimum computational efforts.</span>
文摘文中采用蒙特卡罗随机抽样方法,研发了一套融合传统二维潜在震源区(下文简称“潜源”)和三维断层源的概率地震危险性算法。该算法不仅适用于传统的区域面源,同时还能考虑地震的破裂尺度并兼容三维断层源的概率地震危险性计算。文中研发的算法可高效实现断层源地震事件集的三维模拟,并将地震破裂尺度引入到概率地震危险性计算中,显著提高了近断层地区地震危险性计算的合理性。为了提高程序的执行效率,算法采用预先在平面潜源中充填网格点的方式随机模拟地震事件在潜源内的均匀分布。对于椭圆衰减的地震危险性计算,算法采用了预先构建不同震级、距离及不同场点与潜源长轴方向夹角下的短轴距的三维矩阵,通过查表和插值方式直接获得相应场点的短轴距,避免了循环迭代逼近短轴距计算效率低下的问题。分别利用五代图的概率地震危险性程序和文中研发的算法,计算了湖南长-株-潭(长沙-株洲-湘潭)城市群所处的中强地震活动环境的区域地震危险性以及近断层源的常德、株洲2个场点在不同概率水平下(重现期分别为50a、 475a和2 475a)的地震危险性。比较研究表明,五代图的程序低估了三维断层源附近的地震危险性,且随着概率水平的降低,低估的程度越来越高。最后,利用太平洋地震工程中心(Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, PEER)验证概率地震危险性程序的算例(数据集1案例10)验证了文中算法的可靠性。
文摘为了厘定概率地震危险性分析方法在地震灾害风险调查与评估工作中的适用性,针对从化区,以中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2015)提供的信息为依托,给出其周边的潜在震源区划分、地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,基于地震灾害风险普查资料,利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法对其进行地震危险性分析。确定了对从化区地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,计算了从化区未来50年超越概率63%、10%、2%和100年超越概率1%的PGA分布,基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS)平台绘制了从化区4种概率下的基岩及地表地震动峰值加速度值分布图。结果表明:背景源(17)、广州、佛冈、河源、担杆岛、珠海和东莞潜在震源区对计算区内PGA起主要贡献;区内50年超越概率10%地表地震动分布中间高两边低。
基金The support of the Fundamental Research Funds from the Central Universities,CHD(Grant No.300102282103)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(Program No.2023-JC-QN-0512)Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen)。
文摘The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes.An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model.However,a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps(CanSHMs)obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable.The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs.In the present study,we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue.We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models.For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models,we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth.The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models.This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.