Uncertainty quantification of inverse analysis for geomaterials using probabilistic programming

Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.

Probabilistic back-analysis of rainfall-induced landslides for slope reliability prediction with multi-source information

Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.

Reachability-Based Confidence-Aware Probabilistic Collision Detection in Highway Driving

Risk assessment is a crucial component of collision warning and avoidance systems for intelligent vehicles.Reachability-based formal approaches have been developed to ensure driving safety to accurately detect potential vehicle collisions.However,they suffer from over-conservatism,potentially resulting in false–positive risk events in complicated real-world applications.In this paper,we combine two reachability analysis techniques,a backward reachable set(BRS)and a stochastic forward reachable set(FRS),and propose an integrated probabilistic collision–detection framework for highway driving.Within this framework,we can first use a BRS to formally check whether a two-vehicle interaction is safe;otherwise,a prediction-based stochastic FRS is employed to estimate the collision probability at each future time step.Thus,the framework can not only identify non-risky events with guaranteed safety but also provide accurate collision risk estimation in safety-critical events.To construct the stochastic FRS,we develop a neural network-based acceleration model for surrounding vehicles and further incorporate a confidence-aware dynamic belief to improve the prediction accuracy.Extensive experiments were conducted to validate the performance of the acceleration prediction model based on naturalistic highway driving data.The efficiency and effectiveness of the framework with infused confidence beliefs were tested in both naturalistic and simulated highway scenarios.The proposed risk assessment framework is promising for real-world applications.

Terrain or climate factor dominates vegetation resilience?Evidence from three national parks across different climatic zones in China

Vegetation resilience(VR),providing an objective measure of ecosystem health,has received considerable attention,however,there is still limited understanding of whether the dominant factors differ across different climate zones.We took the three national parks(Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,HTR;Wuyishan National Park,WYS;and Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park,NTL)of China with less human interference as cases,which are distributed in different climatic zones,including tropical,subtropical and temperate monsoon climates,respectively.Then,we employed the probabilistic decay method to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the VR and their natural driving patterns using Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model as well.The results revealed that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of the three national parks fluctuated between 0.800 and 0.960,exhibiting an overall upward trend,with the mean NDVI of NTL(0.923)>HTR(0.899)>WYS(0.823);(2)the positive trend decay time of vegetation exceeded that of negative trend,indicating vegetation gradual recovery of the three national parks since 2012;(3)the VR of HTR was primarily influenced by elevation,aspect,average annual temperature change(AATC),and average annual precipitation change(AAPC);the WYS'VR was mainly affected by elevation,average annual precipitation(AAP),and AAPC;while the terrain factors(elevation and slope)were the main driving factors of VR in NTL;(4)among the main factors influencing the VR changes,the AAPC had the highest proportion in HTR(66.7%),and the AAP occupied the largest area proportion in WYS(80.4%).While in NTL,elevation served as the main driving factor for the VR,encompassing 64.2%of its area.Consequently,our findings indicated that precipitation factors were the main driving force for the VR changes in HTR and WYS national parks,while elevation was the main factors that drove the VR in NTL.Our research has promoted a deeper understanding of the driving mechanism behind the VR.

Probabilistic modeling of multifunction radars with autoregressive kernel mixture network

The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars(MFRs)pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance.Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrained models,posing challenges for non-cooperative applications.This paper introduces a novel approach to model MFRs using a Bayesian network,where the conditional probability density function is approximated by an autoregressive kernel mixture network(ARKMN).Utilizing the estimated probability density function,a dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for denoising and detecting change points in the intercepted MFRs pulse trains.Simulation results affirm the proposed method's efficacy in modeling MFRs,outperforming the state-of-the-art in pulse train denoising and change point detection.

A NOVEL STOCHASTIC HEPATITIS B VIRUS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH SECOND-ORDER MULTIPLICATIVE α-STABLE NOISE AND REAL DATA

This work presents an advanced and detailed analysis of the mechanisms of hepatitis B virus(HBV)propagation in an environment characterized by variability and stochas-ticity.Based on some biological features of the virus and the assumptions,the corresponding deterministic model is formulated,which takes into consideration the effect of vaccination.This deterministic model is extended to a stochastic framework by considering a new form of disturbance which makes it possible to simulate strong and significant fluctuations.The long-term behaviors of the virus are predicted by using stochastic differential equations with second-order multiplicative α-stable jumps.By developing the assumptions and employing the novel theoretical tools,the threshold parameter responsible for ergodicity(persistence)and extinction is provided.The theoretical results of the current study are validated by numerical simulations and parameters estimation is also performed.Moreover,we obtain the following new interesting findings:(a)in each class,the average time depends on the value ofα;(b)the second-order noise has an inverse effect on the spread of the virus;(c)the shapes of population densities at stationary level quickly changes at certain values of α.The last three conclusions can provide a solid research base for further investigation in the field of biological and ecological modeling.

Integrated hazard assessment of rockfall incidents in the Cap Aokas Cliff Region

Rock fall accidents in mountainous cliff areas have significant consequences for human life and transportation.This study aimed to evaluate the rockfall hazard in the Cap Aokas cliff region located along the northeast coast of Algeria by identifying the key factors contributing to rockfall occurrence.We employed a combination of kinematic analysis,Matterocking method,and 3D trajectory simulations to determine zones that are susceptible to rockfall mobilization.By using a probabilistic and structural approach in conjunction with photogrammetry,we identified the controlling factors.The kinematic analysis revealed the presence of five discontinuity families,which indicated both plane and wedge failure modes.The 3D trajectory simulations demonstrated that the falling blocks followed the stream direction.We then validated the susceptibility maps generated from the analysis using aerial photos and historical rockfall events.The findings of this study enhance our understanding of rockfall phenomena and provide valuable insights for the development of effective strategies to mitigate rockfall hazards.

Probabilistic seismic inversion based on physics-guided deep mixture density network

Deterministic inversion based on deep learning has been widely utilized in model parameters estimation.Constrained by logging data,seismic data,wavelet and modeling operator,deterministic inversion based on deep learning can establish nonlinear relationships between seismic data and model parameters.However,seismic data lacks low-frequency and contains noise,which increases the non-uniqueness of the solutions.The conventional inversion method based on deep learning can only establish the deterministic relationship between seismic data and parameters,and cannot quantify the uncertainty of inversion.In order to quickly quantify the uncertainty,a physics-guided deep mixture density network(PG-DMDN)is established by combining the mixture density network(MDN)with the deep neural network(DNN).Compared with Bayesian neural network(BNN)and network dropout,PG-DMDN has lower computing cost and shorter training time.A low-frequency model is introduced in the training process of the network to help the network learn the nonlinear relationship between narrowband seismic data and low-frequency impedance.In addition,the block constraints are added to the PG-DMDN framework to improve the horizontal continuity of the inversion results.To illustrate the benefits of proposed method,the PG-DMDN is compared with existing semi-supervised inversion method.Four synthetic data examples of Marmousi II model are utilized to quantify the influence of forward modeling part,low-frequency model,noise and the pseudo-wells number on inversion results,and prove the feasibility and stability of the proposed method.In addition,the robustness and generality of the proposed method are verified by the field seismic data.

An Active Deception Defense Model Based on Address Mutation and Fingerprint Camouflage

The static and predictable characteristics of cyber systems give attackers an asymmetric advantage in gathering useful information and launching attacks.To reverse this asymmetric advantage,a new defense idea,called Moving Target Defense(MTD),has been proposed to provide additional selectable measures to complement traditional defense.However,MTD is unable to defeat the sophisticated attacker with fingerprint tracking ability.To overcome this limitation,we go one step beyond and show that the combination of MTD and Deception-based Cyber Defense(DCD)can achieve higher performance than either of them.In particular,we first introduce and formalize a novel attacker model named Scan and Foothold Attack(SFA)based on cyber kill chain.Afterwards,we develop probabilistic models for SFA defenses to provide a deeper analysis of the theoretical effect under different defense strategies.These models quantify attack success probability and the probability that the attacker will be deceived under various conditions,such as the size of address space,and the number of hosts,attack analysis time.Finally,the experimental results show that the actual defense effect of each strategy almost perfectly follows its probabilistic model.Also,the defense strategy of combining address mutation and fingerprint camouflage can achieve a better defense effect than the single address mutation.

Risk-Informed Model-Free Safe Control of Linear Parameter-Varying Systems

This paper presents a risk-informed data-driven safe control design approach for a class of stochastic uncertain nonlinear discrete-time systems.The nonlinear system is modeled using linear parameter-varying(LPV)systems.A model-based probabilistic safe controller is first designed to guarantee probabilisticλ-contractivity(i.e.,stability and invariance)of the LPV system with respect to a given polyhedral safe set.To obviate the requirement of knowing the LPV system model and to bypass identifying its open-loop model,its closed-loop data-based representation is provided in terms of state and scheduling data as well as a decision variable.It is shown that the variance of the closedloop system,as well as the probability of safety satisfaction,depends on the decision variable and the noise covariance.A minimum-variance direct data-driven gain-scheduling safe control design approach is presented next by designing the decision variable such that all possible closed-loop system realizations satisfy safety with the highest confidence level.This minimum-variance approach is a control-oriented learning method since it minimizes the variance of the state of the closed-loop system with respect to the safe set,and thus minimizes the risk of safety violation.Unlike the certainty-equivalent approach that results in a risk-neutral control design,the minimum-variance method leads to a risk-averse control design.It is shown that the presented direct risk-averse learning approach requires weaker data richness conditions than existing indirect learning methods based on system identification and can lead to a lower risk of safety violation.Two simulation examples along with an experimental validation on an autonomous vehicle are provided to show the effectiveness of the presented approach.

Missing Value Imputation for Radar-Derived Time-Series Tracks of Aerial Targets Based on Improved Self-Attention-Based Network

The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random missing(RM)that differs significantly from common missing patterns of RTT-AT.The method for solving the RM may experience performance degradation or failure when applied to RTT-AT imputation.Conventional autoregressive deep learning methods are prone to error accumulation and long-term dependency loss.In this paper,a non-autoregressive imputation model that addresses the issue of missing value imputation for two common missing patterns in RTT-AT is proposed.Our model consists of two probabilistic sparse diagonal masking self-attention(PSDMSA)units and a weight fusion unit.It learns missing values by combining the representations outputted by the two units,aiming to minimize the difference between the missing values and their actual values.The PSDMSA units effectively capture temporal dependencies and attribute correlations between time steps,improving imputation quality.The weight fusion unit automatically updates the weights of the output representations from the two units to obtain a more accurate final representation.The experimental results indicate that,despite varying missing rates in the two missing patterns,our model consistently outperforms other methods in imputation performance and exhibits a low frequency of deviations in estimates for specific missing entries.Compared to the state-of-the-art autoregressive deep learning imputation model Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series(BRITS),our proposed model reduces mean absolute error(MAE)by 31%~50%.Additionally,the model attains a training speed that is 4 to 8 times faster when compared to both BRITS and a standard Transformer model when trained on the same dataset.Finally,the findings from the ablation experiments demonstrate that the PSDMSA,the weight fusion unit,cascade network design,and imputation loss enhance imputation performance and confirm the efficacy of our design.

Flight Time Minimization of UAV for Cooperative Data Collection in Probabilistic LoS Channel

This paper investigates the data collection in an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)-aided Internet of Things(IoT) network, where a UAV is dispatched to collect data from ground sensors in a practical and accurate probabilistic line-of-sight(LoS) channel. Especially, access points(APs) are introduced to collect data from some sensors in the unlicensed band to improve data collection efficiency. We formulate a mixed-integer non-convex optimization problem to minimize the UAV flight time by jointly designing the UAV 3D trajectory and sensors’ scheduling, while ensuring the required amount of data can be collected under the limited UAV energy. To solve this nonconvex problem, we recast the objective problem into a tractable form. Then, the problem is further divided into several sub-problems to solve iteratively, and the successive convex approximation(SCA) scheme is applied to solve each non-convex subproblem. Finally,the bisection search is adopted to speed up the searching for the minimum UAV flight time. Simulation results verify that the UAV flight time can be shortened by the proposed method effectively.

Probability-Enhanced Anchor-Free Detector for Remote-Sensing Object Detection

Anchor-free object-detection methods achieve a significant advancement in field of computer vision,particularly in the realm of real-time inferences.However,in remote sensing object detection,anchor-free methods often lack of capability in separating the foreground and background.This paper proposes an anchor-free method named probability-enhanced anchor-free detector(ProEnDet)for remote sensing object detection.First,a weighted bidirectional feature pyramid is used for feature extraction.Second,we introduce probability enhancement to strengthen the classification of the object’s foreground and background.The detector uses the logarithm likelihood as the final score to improve the classification of the foreground and background of the object.ProEnDet is verified using the DIOR and NWPU-VHR-10 datasets.The experiment achieved mean average precisions of 61.4 and 69.0 on the DIOR dataset and NWPU-VHR-10 dataset,respectively.ProEnDet achieves a speed of 32.4 FPS on the DIOR dataset,which satisfies the real-time requirements for remote-sensing object detection.

Development of a DFN-based probabilistic block theory approach for bench face angle design in open pit mining

In open pit mining,uncontrolled block instabilities have serious social,economic and regulatory consequences,such as casualties,disruption of operation and increased regulation difficulties.For this reason,bench face angle,as one of the controlling parameters associated with block instabilities,should be carefully designed for sustainable mining.This study introduces a discrete fracture network(DFN)-based probabilistic block theory approach for the fast design of the bench face angle.A major advantage is the explicit incorporation of discontinuity size and spatial distribution in the procedure of key blocks testing.The proposed approach was applied to a granite mine in China.First,DFN models were generated from a multi-step modeling procedure to simulate the complex structural characteristics of pit slopes.Then,a modified key blocks searching method was applied to the slope faces modeled,and a cumulative probability of failure was obtained for each sector.Finally,a bench face angle was determined commensurate with an acceptable risk level of stability.The simulation results have shown that the number of hazardous traces exposed on the slope face can be significantly reduced when the suggested bench face angle is adopted,indicating an extremely low risk of uncontrolled block instabilities.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Personalized Lower Limb Gait Reconstruction Modeling Based on RFA-ProMP

Personalized gait curves are generated to enhance patient adaptability to gait trajectories used for passive training in the early stage of rehabilitation for hemiplegic patients.The article utilizes the random forest algorithm to construct a gait parameter model,which maps the relationship between parameters such as height,weight,age,gender,and gait speed,achieving prediction of key points on the gait curve.To enhance prediction accuracy,an attention mechanism is introduced into the algorithm to focus more on the main features.Meanwhile,to ensure high similarity between the reconstructed gait curve and the normal one,probabilistic motion primitives(ProMP)are used to learn the probability distribution of normal gait data and construct a gait trajectorymodel.Finally,using the specified step speed as input,select a reference gait trajectory from the learned trajectory,and reconstruct the curve of the reference trajectoryusing the gait keypoints predictedby the parametermodel toobtain the final curve.Simulation results demonstrate that the method proposed in this paper achieves 98%and 96%curve correlations when generating personalized lower limb gait curves for different patients,respectively,indicating its suitability for such tasks.

Myths about Earthquakes:Quo vadis?

We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.

Probabilistic Calculation of Tidal Currents forWind Powered Systems Using PSO Improved LHS

This paper introduces the Particle SwarmOptimization(PSO)algorithmto enhance the LatinHypercube Sampling(LHS)process.The key objective is to mitigate the issues of lengthy computation times and low computational accuracy typically encountered when applying Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS)to LHS for probabilistic trend calculations.The PSOmethod optimizes sample distribution,enhances global search capabilities,and significantly boosts computational efficiency.To validate its effectiveness,the proposed method was applied to IEEE34 and IEEE-118 node systems containing wind power.The performance was then compared with Latin Hypercubic Important Sampling(LHIS),which integrates significant sampling with theMonte Carlomethod.The comparison results indicate that the PSO-enhanced method significantly improves the uniformity and representativeness of the sampling.This enhancement leads to a reduction in data errors and an improvement in both computational accuracy and convergence speed.

Lychrel Numbers in Base 10: A Probabilistic Approach

For decades, Lychrel numbers have been studied on many bases. Their existence has been proven in base 2, 11 or 17. This paper presents a probabilistic proof of the existence of Lychrel number in base 10 and provides some properties which enable a mathematical extraction of new Lychrel numbers from existing ones. This probabilistic approach has the advantage of being extendable to other bases. The results show that palindromes can also be Lychrel numbers.

The Energy Origin of Mass

The concept of mass manifests in diverse forms, dimensions and configurations, and yet among all these manifestations, a unified origin is usually yearned for. This study aims to propose models that attribute the emergence of mass from fundamental quantities of physics, notably energy, space, and time. To this end, an operator is introduced, wherein these fundamental concepts serve as inputs, yielding functions that characterise mass. These functions are grounded in the domain of complex numbers, augmented by the incorporation of probabilistic elements, facilitating a nuanced depiction of mass modulation. Through investigation, it becomes apparent that a corollary energy field arises surrounding mass, facilitating its interactions within its surroundings. Ultimately, the comprehensive model of mass, inclusive of its associated field, gives rise to interactions with other masses, thereby engendering the genesis of larger and denser manifestations of mass, a phenomenon expounded within this framework.