Forecasting of Thunder/Lightning Potential

In this paper, the characteristics of thunderstorms in Zibo City were ana- lyzed. The thunderstorms could be divided into cold-front thunderstorm, upper trough （shear line） type thunderstorm and cold-vortex thunderstorm. We also screened out the atmosphere parameters that were highly correlated to the occurrence of thunder/ lightning. They were treated as the predictors. Each possible influencing factor was analyzed on the lightning day correspondingly. Their threshold values were also de- termined. Among them, the parameter that had the highest neutralizing capacity was treated as negative index. For different type of thunderstorm weather, the negative index was different. The application of negative indexes was also discussed. We hope to provide a valuable basis for the accurate forecasting of thunder/lightning.

Spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain for middle and long-term earthquake forecast and its preliminary application

The principle of middle and long-term earthquake forecast model of spatial and temporal synthesized probability gain and the evaluation of forecast efficiency (R-values) of various forecast methods are introduced in this paper. The R-value method, developed by Xu (1989), is further developed here, and can be applied to more complicated cases. Probability gains in spatial and/or temporal domains and the R-values for different forecast methods are estimated in North China. The synthesized probability gain is then estimated as an example.

Probability forecast of earthquake magnitude in Chinese mainland before A．D． 2005

A probability forecast method of earthquake magnitude, based on the earthquake frequency magnitude relation and the model of Bernoulli′s random independent trial, is applied to the earthquake risk assessment of seismic zones in China's Mainland before A.D.2005 in the paper. The forecasting results indicate that the probabilities of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 5 in seismic zones before 2005 are estimated to be over 0.7 in common and 0.8 in most zones; and from 0.5 to 0.7 with M =6; the maximum probability of earthquake occurrence with magnitude 7 is estimated at 0.858, which is also expected in Shanxi seismic zone. In west China's Mainland, earthquakes with magnitude 6 are expected to occur in most seismic zones with high probability (over 0.9 in general) ; the relatively high probabilities of earthquake occurrence (more than 0.7) with magnitude 7 are expected in the seismic zones surrounding the Qinghai Tibet plateau and south Tianshan seismic zone. A discussion about the result confidence and the relationship between the estimated probability and the possible annual rate of earthquake occurrence is made in the last part of the paper.

Typhoon storm surge ensemble forecast based on GPU technique

The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models.The results agree well with tidal gauge observations.To improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran.The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts.The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model.Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided.The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut.The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.

Tropical Stratospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June-September) and NE monsoon (October-December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) for the 29 year period (1958-1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall (r = 0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during easterly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However, NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.Tracks of the SW monsoon storms and depressions in association with the stratospheric wind were also examined to couple with the fluctuations in SW monsoon rainfall. It is noted that easterly / westerly wind at 10 hPa, in some manner, suppresses / enhances monsoon storms and depressions activity affecting their tracks.

Dependability Analysis for Fault-Tolerant Computer Systems Using Dynamic Fault Graphs

Dependability analysis is an important step in designing and analyzing safety computer systems and protection systems.Introducing multi-processor and virtual machine increases the system faults' complexity,diversity and dynamic,in particular for software-induced failures,with an impact on the overall dependability.Moreover,it is very different for safety system to operate successfully at any active phase,since there is a huge difference in failure rate between hardware-induced and softwareinduced failures.To handle these difficulties and achieve accurate dependability evaluation,consistently reflecting the construct it measures,a new formalism derived from dynamic fault graphs(DFG) is developed in this paper.DFG exploits the concept of system event as fault state sequences to represent dynamic behaviors,which allows us to execute probabilistic measures at each timestamp when change occurs.The approach automatically combines the reliability analysis with the system dynamics.In this paper,we describe how to use the proposed methodology drives to the overall system dependability analysis through the phases of modeling,structural discovery and probability analysis,which is also discussed using an example of a virtual computing system.

Prediction of death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers

Background:To estimate cardiovascular and cancer death rates by regions and time periods.Design:Novel statistical methods were used to analyze clinical surveillance data.Methods:A multicenter,population-based medical survey was performed.Annual recorded deaths from cardiovascular diseases were analyzed for all 195 countries of the world.It is challenging to model such data;few mathematical models can be applied because cardiovascular disease and cancer data are generally not normally distributed.Results:A novel approach to assessing the biosystem reliability is introduced and has been found to be particularly suitable for analyzing multiregion environmental and healthcare systems.While traditional methods for analyzing temporal observations of multiregion processes do not deal with dimensionality efficiently,our methodology has been shown to be able to cope with this challenge.Conclusions:Our novel methodology can be applied to public health and clinical survey data.