A model for extracting large deformation mining subsidence using D-InSAR technique and probability integral method

Due to the difficulties in obtaining large deformation mining subsidence using differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar （D-InSAR） alone, a new algorithm was proposed to extract large deformation mining subsidence using D-InSAR technique and probability integral method. The details of the algorithm are as follows：the control points set, containing correct phase unwrapping points on the subsidence basin edge generated by D-InSAR and several observation points （near the maximum subsidence and inflection points）, was established at first; genetic algorithm （GA） was then used to optimize the parameters of probability integral method; at last, the surface subsidence was deduced according to the optimum parameters. The results of the experiment in Huaibei mining area, China, show that the presented method can generate the correct mining subsidence basin with a few surface observations, and the relative error of maximum subsidence point is about 8.3%, which is much better than that of conventional D-InSAR （relative error is 68.0%）.

Application of probability integral method in ground deformation prediction

In order to study the law of mining subsidence and ground movement, to provide the basis of coal mining under building, railway and water, we used the probability integration method to make comprehensive evaluation of ground stability. Take Yingcheng Coal Mine of Jiutai as an example. Mining-induced movement and horizontal movement are analyzed on the basis of the measurement data. The resuhs of prediction can pro- vide reference and basis for prevention of coal mining subsidence and future restoration and treatment.

A method to calculate displacement factors using SVM

In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support Vector Machine （SVM） was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu- late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor, based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid- ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of displacement in mining subsidence orediction.

Hazard development mechanism and deformation estimation of water solution mining area

Based on the hazard development mechanism, a water solution area is closely related to the supporting effect of pressure-bearing water, the relaxing and collapsing effect of orebody interlayer, the collapsing effect of thawless material in orebody, filling effect caused by cubical expansibility of hydrate crystallization and uplifting effect of hard rock layer over cranny belt. The movement and deformation of ground surface caused by underground water solution mining is believed to be much weaker than that caused by well lane mining, which can be predicted by the stochastic medium theory method. On the basis of analysis on the engineering practice of water solution mining, its corresponding parameters can be obtained from the in-site data of the belt water and sand filling mining in engineering analog approach.

Superposition model for analyzing the dynamic ground subsidence in mining area of thick loose layer

The dynamic ground subsidence due to underground mining is a complicated time-dependent and rate- dependent process. Based. on the theory of rock rheology and probability integral method, this study developed the superposltlOn model for the prediction and analysis of the ground dynamic subsidence in mining area of thick !oose layer. The model consists of two parts （the prediction of overlying bedrock and the prediction of thick loose layer）. The overlying bedrock is regarded as visco-elastic beam, of which the dynamic subsidence is predicted by the Kelvin visco-elastic rheological model. The thick loose layer is regarded as random medium, and the ground dynamic subsidence, is predicted by the probability integral model. At last, the two prediction models are vertically stacked in the same coordinate system, and the bedrock dynamic subsidence is regarded as a variable mining thickness input into the prediction model of ground dynamic subsidence. The prediction results obtained were compared w^th actual movement and deformation data from Zhao I and Zhao II mine, central China. The agreement of the prediction results with the. field measurements.show that the superposition model （SM） is more satisfactory and the formulae obtained are more effective than the classical single probability Integral model（SPIM）, and thus can be effectively used for predicting the ground dynamic subsidence in mining area of thick loose layer.

Robust and Efficient Reliability Estimation for Exponential Distribution

In modeling reliability data,the exponential distribution is commonly used due to its simplicity.For estimating the parameter of the exponential distribution,classical estimators including maximum likelihood estimator represent the most commonly used method and are well known to be efficient.However,the maximum likelihood estimator is highly sensitive in the presence of contamination or outliers.In this study,a robust and efficient estimator of the exponential distribution parameter was proposed based on the probability integral transform statistic.To examine the robustness of this new estimator,asymptotic variance,breakdown point,and gross error sensitivity were derived.This new estimator offers reasonable protection against outliers besides being simple to compute.Furthermore,a simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of this new estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator,weighted likelihood estimator,and M-scale estimator in the presence of outliers.Finally,a statistical analysis of three reliability data sets was conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimator.