POSSIBILITY TO USE SCH(?)RDINGER EQUATION TO DESCRIBE LARGE-SCALE PROBABILITY WAVES AND ITS APPLICATION IN SEASONAL PREDICTION

Under the influence of a one-dimensional stationary outfield with the equilibrium between kinetic and potential energy produced by it,a modified Sch(?)rdinger equation in the form i((?)ψ/(?)t)t=a (?)~2ψ/ax^2-ib (?),where b=b_o(?)T/(?)x,is used to describe the behavior of the probability wave on the six-month departure charts at the 500 hPa level.It is found that C=2πa/L-b_o(?)T/ax and when L→∞,then C= -b_o(?)T/(?)x,where C is wave velocity,a and b are constants,and L is wavelength.The motion direction of probability waves is against the outfield temperature gradient,and their velocity is related to the absolute value of temperature gradient.The motion of waves shrinks in heat sinks and expands in heat sources,which have been verified in practice.Finally the six-month departure probability wave and the modified Sch(?)rdinger equation are used in the MOS predictions of temperature and rainfall in spring-summer 1981-1985 in Jilin Province and the accuracy for trend predictions is equal to 80%.

Probabilistic Models for the Probability of Wave Breaking and Whitecap Coverage Based on Kinematic Breaking Criterion

More and more researches show that neither the critical downward acceleration nor the critical slope of water waves is a universal constant. On the contrary, they vary with particular wave conditions. This fact renders the models either for the probability of wave breaking B or for the whitecap coverage W based on these criteria difficult to apply. In this paper and the one which follows we seek to develop models for the prediction of both B and W based on the kinematical criterion. First, several joint probabilistic distribution functions (PDFs) of wave characteristics are derived, based on which the breaking properties B and W are estimated. The estimation is made on the assumption that a wave breaks if the horizontal velocity of water particles at its crest exceeds the local wave celerity, and whitecapping occurs in regions of fluid where water particles travel faster than the waves. The consequent B and W depend on wave spectral moments of orders 0 to 4. Then the JONSWAP spectrum is used to represent the fetch limited sea waves in deep water, so as to relate the probability of wave breaking and the whitecap coverage with wind parameters. To this end, the time averaging technique proposed by Glazman (1986) is applied to the estimation of the spectral moments involved, and furthermore, the theoretical models are compared with available observations collected from published literature. From the comparison, the averaging time scale is determined. The final models show that the probability of wave breaking as well as the whitecap coverage depends on the dimensionless fetch. The agreement between these models and the database is reasonable.

Effect of wave spectrum width on the probability density distribution of wind-wave heights

The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived from this distribution, are widely used for the treatment of realistic wind waves. However, the bandwidth of wave frequency influences the probability distribution of wave heights. In this paper, a wave-spectrum-width parameter B was introduced into the JONSWAP spectrum. This facilitated the construction of a wind-wave spectrum and the reconstruction of wind-wave time series for various growth stages, based on which the probability density distributions of the wind-wave heights were studied statistically. The distribution curves deviated slightly from the theoretical Rayleigh distribution with increasing B. The probability that a wave height exceeded a certain value was clearly smaller than the theoretical value for B≥0.3, and the difference between them increased with the threshold value. The relation between the Hs/σ ratio and B was investigated statistically, which revealed that the Hs/σ ratio deviated from 4.005 and declined with B. When B reached 0.698 1, the Hs/σ ratio was 3.825, which is about 95.5% of its original value. This indicates an overestimation in the a potential method for improving the accuracy of the Hs extremely large waves under severe sea states. prediction of Hs from Hs=4.005σ, and provides remote sensing retrieval algorithm, critical for

Parameterization of Wave Breaking Probability and Whitecap Coverage

The model for whitecap coverage and wave breaking probability are parameterized by the dimensionless wind fetch X^-. This paper aims at replacing X^- with other parameters such as the average wave period T^-, wind speed U10 or wave age ξ in order to improve the suitability and convenience of the model for application. First, W and B are expressed in terms of T^- and U10, which are relatively easy to measure in the field. Further, U10 is replaced with the friction velocity U. by use of the empirical relationship. As wave age has been widely used to parameterize spectral models of ocean waves and air-sea fluxes, W and B are then expressed as a simple function of wave age, respectively. The new forms of the model obtained are W= 1 - Ф（3.02ξ0＂76） and B = exp（ - 4.54ξ^1.52） . The two forms are mere applicable in pracrice, since ξ is relatively easy to measure or determine from wave and wind records. Comparisons between these expressions and data collected from published literature are made and agreement is fairly good.

Wave Energy Estimation by Using A Statistical Analysis and Wave Buoy Data near the Southern Caspian Sea

Statistical analysis was done on simultaneous wave and wind using data recorded by discus-shape wave buoy. The area is located in the southern Caspian Sea near the Anzali Port. Recorded wave data were obtained through directional spectrum wave analysis. Recorded wind direction and wind speed were obtained through the related time series as well. For 12-month measurements（May 25 2007-2008）, statistical calculations were done to specify the value of nonlinear auto-correlation of wave and wind using the probability distribution function of wave characteristics and statistical analysis in various time periods. The paper also presents and analyzes the amount of wave energy for the area mentioned on the basis of available database. Analyses showed a suitable comparison between the amounts of wave energy in different seasons. As a result, the best period for the largest amount of wave energy was known. Results showed that in the research period, the mean wave and wind auto correlation were about three hours. Among the probability distribution functions, i.e Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Rayleigh, ＂Weibull＂ had the best consistency with experimental distribution function shown in different diagrams for each season. Results also showed that the mean wave energy in the research period was about 49.88 k W/m and the maximum density of wave energy was found in February and March, 2010.

Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.

Comparison of linear and nonlinear extreme wave statistics

An extremely large（＂freak＂） wave is a typical though rare phenomenon observed in the sea. Special theories（for example, the modulation instability theory） were developed to explain mechanics and appearance of freak waves as a result of nonlinear wave-wave interactions. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the freak wave appearance can be also explained by superposition of linear modes with the realistic spectrum. The integral probability of trough-to-crest waves is calculated by two methods： the first one is based on the results of the numerical simulation of a wave field evolution performed with one-dimensional and two-dimensional nonlinear models.The second method is based on calculation of the same probability over the ensembles of wave fields constructed as a superposition of linear waves with random phases and the spectrum similar to that used in the nonlinear simulations. It is shown that the integral probabilities for nonlinear and linear cases are of the same order of values