采用STAMP-24Model的多组织事故分析

安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。

Modeling and analysis of air combustion and steam regeneration in methanol to olefins processes

Light olefins is the incredibly important materials in chemical industry.Methanol to olefins(MTO),which provides a non-oil route for light olefins production,received considerable attention in the past decades.However,the catalyst deactivation is an inevitable feature in MTO processes,and regeneration,therefore,is one of the key steps in industrial MTO processes.Traditionally the MTO catalyst is regenerated by removing the deposited coke via air combustion,which unavoidably transforms coke into carbon dioxide and reduces the carbon utilization efficiency.Recent study shows that the coke species over MTO catalyst can be regenerated via steam,which can promote the light olefins yield as the deactivated coke species can be essentially transferred to industrially useful synthesis gas,is a promising pathway for further MTO processes development.In this work,we modelled and analyzed these two MTO regeneration methods in terms of carbon utilization efficiency and technology economics.As shown,the steam regeneration could achieve a carbon utilization efficiency of 84.31%,compared to 74.74%for air combustion regeneration.The MTO processes using steam regeneration can essentially achieve the near-zero carbon emission.In addition,light olefins production of the MTO processes using steam regeneration is 12.81%higher than that using air combustion regeneration.In this regard,steam regeneration could be considered as a potential yet promising regeneration method for further MTO processes,showing not only great environmental benefits but also competitive economic performance.

郑州“7·20”地铁水淹事件STAMP致因分析

为探讨河南郑州“7·20”地铁5号线伤亡事件致因,综合运用系统理论事件模型与过程(STAMP)模型,分析5号线伤亡事件安全控制结构,据此逐级辨识事件致因;基于复杂网络理论将事件致因及其联系抽象为网络的节点和边,建立地铁水灾事件网络;计算聚类系数、度数等拓扑参数定量分析事件致因性质,确定关键致因。结果表明:地方党委政府面对汛情的应对部署不紧不实,缺少有效的组织动员和有关部门对工程建设存在失管失察是事件的深层根源;建设单位、设计单位等五方主体单位及运维单位的主体责任失职是事件的主观关键致因;应从政府及有关部门、五方主体单位和运维单位方面采取多元协同的风险防控措施。

Finite Element Simulation of Radial Tire Building and Shaping Processes Using an Elasto-Viscoplastic Model

The comprehensive tire building and shaping processes are investigated through the finite element method(FEM)in this article.The mechanical properties of the uncured rubber from different tire components are investigated through cyclic loading-unloading experiments under different strain rates.Based on the experiments,an elastoviscoplastic constitutive model is adopted to describe themechanical behaviors of the uncured rubber.The distinct mechanical properties,including the stress level,hysteresis and residual strain,of the uncured rubber can all be well characterized.The whole tire building process(including component winding,rubber bladder inflation,component stitching and carcass band folding-back)and the shaping process are simulated using this constitutive model.The simulated green tire profile is in good agreement with the actual profile obtained through 3D scanning.The deformation and stress of the rubber components and the cord reinforcements during production can be obtained fromthe FE simulation,which is helpful for judging the rationality of the tire construction design.Finally,the influence of the parameter“drum width”is investigated,and the simulated result is found to be consistent with the experimental observations,which verifies the effectiveness of the simulation.The established simulation strategy provides some guiding significance for the improvement of tire design parameters and the elimination of tire production defects.

基于STAMP与模型检验的全自动无人驾驶复杂运营场景安全验证方法

与传统列控系统相比,全自动无人驾驶运营场景更加复杂多变,潜在的危险及致因具有更强的隐蔽性和复杂性,给运营安全带来了新的挑战。针对以上问题,提出一种STAMP(Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process)与模型检验相结合的复杂运营场景安全验证方法。首先,基于STAMP理论构建运营场景分层控制结构模型,辨识潜在的不安全控制行为、分析危险致因和安全约束;其次,定义分层控制结构模型与安全状态机模型间的基本转换规则,基于分层控制结构模型、安全约束和转换规则,构建运营场景安全状态机模型;最后,针对提取的安全约束,利用数据流图建立安全属性验证模型,结合模型检验技术,对运营场景安全状态机模型进行形式化验证。以全自动无人驾驶运营场景中列车自动进站停车为例,对方法进行验证分析。结果表明,当STAMP理论提取的安全约束通过了场景安全状态机模型的验证时,表示在该场景中对应的不安全控制行为没有发生且不导致相应危险。该方法结合系统安全分析与形式化建模验证的优势,降低了运营场景建模的难度,构建的运营场景形式化模型满足系统安全约束,可以作为全自动无人驾驶系统安全设计和安全改进的重要基础。

Dynamics of Advantageous Mutant Spread in Spatial Death-Birth and Birth-Death Moran Models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

Data-driven casting defect prediction model for sand casting based on random forest classification algorithm

The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.

Comparison of a Spectral Bin and Two Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes for Supercell Simulation:Investigation into Key Processes Responsible for Hydrometeor Distributions and Precipitation

There are more uncertainties with ice hydrometeor representations and related processes than liquid hydrometeors within microphysics parameterization(MP)schemes because of their complicated geometries and physical properties.Idealized supercell simulations are produced using the WRF model coupled with“full”Hebrew University spectral bin MP(HU-SBM),and NSSL and Thompson bulk MP(BMP)schemes.HU-SBM downdrafts are typically weaker than those of the NSSL and Thompson simulations,accompanied by less rain evaporation.HU-SBM produces more cloud ice(plates),graupel,and hail than the BMPs,yet precipitates less at the surface.The limiting mass bins(and subsequently,particle size)of rimed ice in HU-SBM and slower rimed ice fall speeds lead to smaller melting-level net rimed ice fluxes than those of the BMPs.Aggregation from plates in HU-SBM,together with snow–graupel collisions,leads to a greater snow contribution to rain than those of the BMPs.Replacing HU-SBM’s fall speeds using the formulations of the BMPs after aggregating the discrete bin values to mass mixing ratios and total number concentrations increases net rain and rimed ice fluxes.Still,they are smaller in magnitude than bulk rain,NSSL hail,and Thompson graupel net fluxes near the surface.Conversely,the melting-layer net rimed ice fluxes are reduced when the fall speeds for the NSSL and Thompson simulations are calculated using HU-SBM fall speed formulations after discretizing the bulk particle size distributions(PSDs)into spectral bins.The results highlight precipitation sensitivity to storm dynamics,fall speed,hydrometeor evolution governed by process rates,and MP PSD design.

Investigation of FRP and SFRC Technologies for Efficient Tunnel Reinforcement Using the Cohesive Zone Model

Amid urbanization and the continuous expansion of transportation networks,the necessity for tunnel construction and maintenance has become paramount.Addressing this need requires the investigation of efficient,economical,and robust tunnel reinforcement techniques.This paper explores fiber reinforced polymer(FRP)and steel fiber reinforced concrete(SFRC)technologies,which have emerged as viable solutions for enhancing tunnel structures.FRP is celebrated for its lightweight and high-strength attributes,effectively augmenting load-bearing capacity and seismic resistance,while SFRC’s notable crack resistance and longevity potentially enhance the performance of tunnel segments.Nonetheless,current research predominantly focuses on experimental analysis,lacking comprehensive theoretical models.To bridge this gap,the cohesive zone model(CZM),which utilizes cohesive elements to characterize the potential fracture surfaces of concrete/SFRC,the rebar-concrete interface,and the FRP-concrete interface,was employed.A modeling approach was subsequently proposed to construct a tunnel segment model reinforced with either SFRC or FRP.Moreover,the corresponding mixed-mode constitutive models,considering interfacial friction,were integrated into the proposed model.Experimental validation and numerical simulations corroborated the accuracy of the proposed model.Additionally,this study examined the reinforcement design of tunnel segments.Through a numerical evaluation,the effectiveness of innovative reinforcement schemes,such as substituting concrete with SFRC and externally bonding FRP sheets,was assessed utilizing a case study from the Fuzhou Metro Shield Tunnel Construction Project.

Risk identification and safety assessment of human-computer interaction in integrated avionics based on STAMP

To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.

Classification of Conversational Sentences Using an Ensemble Pre-Trained Language Model with the Fine-Tuned Parameter

Sentence classification is the process of categorizing a sentence based on the context of the sentence.Sentence categorization requires more semantic highlights than other tasks,such as dependence parsing,which requires more syntactic elements.Most existing strategies focus on the general semantics of a conversation without involving the context of the sentence,recognizing the progress and comparing impacts.An ensemble pre-trained language model was taken up here to classify the conversation sentences from the conversation corpus.The conversational sentences are classified into four categories:information,question,directive,and commission.These classification label sequences are for analyzing the conversation progress and predicting the pecking order of the conversation.Ensemble of Bidirectional Encoder for Representation of Transformer(BERT),Robustly Optimized BERT pretraining Approach(RoBERTa),Generative Pre-Trained Transformer(GPT),DistilBERT and Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding(XLNet)models are trained on conversation corpus with hyperparameters.Hyperparameter tuning approach is carried out for better performance on sentence classification.This Ensemble of Pre-trained Language Models with a Hyperparameter Tuning(EPLM-HT)system is trained on an annotated conversation dataset.The proposed approach outperformed compared to the base BERT,GPT,DistilBERT and XLNet transformer models.The proposed ensemble model with the fine-tuned parameters achieved an F1_score of 0.88.

DPAL-BERT:A Faster and Lighter Question Answering Model

Recent advancements in natural language processing have given rise to numerous pre-training language models in question-answering systems.However,with the constant evolution of algorithms,data,and computing power,the increasing size and complexity of these models have led to increased training costs and reduced efficiency.This study aims to minimize the inference time of such models while maintaining computational performance.It also proposes a novel Distillation model for PAL-BERT(DPAL-BERT),specifically,employs knowledge distillation,using the PAL-BERT model as the teacher model to train two student models:DPAL-BERT-Bi and DPAL-BERTC.This research enhances the dataset through techniques such as masking,replacement,and n-gram sampling to optimize knowledge transfer.The experimental results showed that the distilled models greatly outperform models trained from scratch.In addition,although the distilled models exhibit a slight decrease in performance compared to PAL-BERT,they significantly reduce inference time to just 0.25%of the original.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach in balancing model performance and efficiency.

HV Process Model of Software Development

Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) is one of the major ingredients for the development of efficient software systems within a time frame and low-cost involvement. From the literature, it is evident that there are various kinds of process models that are used by the software industries for the development of small, medium and long-term software projects, but many of them do not cover risk management. It is quite obvious that the improper selection of the software development process model leads to failure of the software products as it is time bound activity. In the present work, a new software development process model is proposed which covers the risks at any stage of the development of the software product. The model is named a Hemant-Vipin (HV) process model and may be helpful for the software industries for development of the efficient software products and timely delivery at the end of the client. The efficiency of the HV process model is observed by considering various kinds of factors like requirement clarity, user feedback, change agility, predictability, risk identification, practical implementation, customer satisfaction, incremental development, use of ready-made components, quick design, resource organization and many more and found through a case study that the presented approach covers many of parameters in comparison of the existing process models. .

STAMP框架下化学品船智能液货系统风险分析

为分析化学品船智能液货系统的安全性,采用系统理论事故模型与过程(System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes, STAMP)方法,构建了化学品船智能液货系统控制反馈模型;基于系统理论过程分析(System-Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA),确定系统级事故,识别不安全控制行为并分析不安全控制行为关键致因;将不安全控制行为作为风险因素,利用三角模糊数对不安全控制行为风险进行量化。结果表明,26种不安全控制行为中,泵管阀动态调节、人员监测、数据采集、货品相容性判定等因素对风险影响程度较高。该分析结果可为化学品船智能液货系统的应用和安全管理提供参考。

基于STAMP模型的掺氢输送放空系统风险分析

随着掺氢运输迅猛发展,原有的放空系统又产生了新的安全隐患和风险因素。为了保障掺氢管道放空作业时设备和人员的安全,本文基于事故分析模型,通过分析掺氢管道的放空流程,确定放空系统失效事故的安全约束条件,建立放空作业控制与反馈模型,识别控制模型中潜在的不安全控制行为,确定不同的不安全控制行为产生的风险及对应的安全约束,对掺氢管道的风险性进行分析研究,提高掺氢管道放空作业的安全性。

An Intelligent Master Model of Computer Aided Process Planning for Large Complicated Stampings

Process planning for large complicated stampings is more complicated, illegible and multiform than that for common stampings. In this paper, an intelligent master model of computer aided process planning （CAPP） for large complicated stampings has been developed based on knowledge based engineering （KBE） and feature technology. This innovative model consists of knowledge base （KB）, process control structure （PCS）, process information model （PIM）, multidisciplinary design optimization （MDO）, model link environment （MLE） and simulation engine （SE）, to realize process planning, optimization, simulation and management integrated to complete intelligent CAPP system. In this model, KBE provides knowledge base, open architecture and knowledge reuse ability to deal with the multi-domain and multi-expression of process knowledge, and forms an integrated environment. With PIM, all the knowledge consisting of objects, constraints, cxtmricncc and decision-makings is carried by object-oriented method dynamically for knowledge-reasoning. PCS makes dynamical knowledge modified and updated timely and accordingly. MLE provides scv. cral methods to make CAPP sysmm associated and integrated. SE provides a programmable mechanism to interpret simulation course and result. Meanwhile, collaborative optimization, one method of MDO, is imported to deal with the optimization distributed for multiple purposes. All these make CAPP sysmm integrated and open to other systems, such as dic design and manufacturing system.

A Review of Cloud-Resolving Model Studies of Convective Processes

Convective processes affect large-scale environments through cloud-radiation interaction, cloud micro- physical processes, and surface rainfall processes. Over the last three decades, cloud-resolving models （CRMs） have demonstrated to be capable of simulating convective-radiative responses to an imposed large-scale forcing. The CRM-produced cloud and radiative properties have been utilized to study the convective- related processes and their ensemble effects on large-scale circulations. This review the recent progress on the understanding of convective processes with the use of CRM simulations, including precipitation processes; cloud microphysical and radiative processes; dynamical processes; precipitation efficiency; diurnal variations of tropical oceanic convection; local-scale atmosphere-ocean coupling processes; and tropical convective-radiative equilibrium states. Two different ongoing applications of CRMs to general circulation models （GCMs） are discussed： replacing convection and cloud schemes for studying the interaction between cloud systems and large-scale circulation, and improving the schemes for climate simulations.

Approximate-model Based Estimation Method for Dynamic Response of Forging Processes

Many high-quality forging productions require the large-sized hydraulic press machine（HPM） to have a desirable dynamic response. Since the forging process is complex under the low velocity, its response is difficult to estimate. And this often causes the desirable low-velocity forging condition difficult to obtain. So far little work has been found to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. In this paper, an approximate-model based estimation method is proposed to estimate the dynamic response of the forging process under low velocity. First, an approximate model is developed to represent the forging process of this complex HPM around the low-velocity working point. Under guaranteeing the modeling performance, the model may greatly ease the complexity of the subsequent estimation of the dynamic response because it has a good linear structure. On this basis, the dynamic response is estimated and the conditions for stability, vibration, and creep are derived according to the solution of the velocity. All these analytical results are further verified by both simulations and experiment. In the simulation verification for modeling, the original movement model and the derived approximate model always have the same dynamic responses with very small approximate error. The simulations and experiment finally demonstrate and test the effectiveness of the derived conditions for stability, vibration, and creep, and these conditions will benefit both the prediction of the dynamic response of the forging process and the design of the controller for the high-quality forging. The proposed method is an effective solution to achieve the desirable low-velocity forging condition.

Integrated Modelling of Microstructure Evolution and Mechanical Properties Prediction for Q&P Hot Stamping Process of Ultra‑High Strength Steel

High strength steel products with good ductility can be produced via Q&P hot stamping process,while the phase transformation of the process is more complicated than common hot stamping since two-step quenching and one-step carbon partitioning processes are involved.In this study,an integrated model of microstructure evolution relating to Q&P hot stamping was presented with a persuasively predicted results of mechanical properties.The transformation of diffusional phase and non-diffusional phase,including original austenite grain size individually,were considered,as well as the carbon partitioning process which affects the secondary martensite transformation temperature and the subsequent phase transformations.Afterwards,the mechanical properties including hardness,strength,and elongation were calculated through a series of theoretical and empirical models in accordance with phase contents.Especially,a modified elongation prediction model was generated ultimately with higher accuracy than the existed Mileiko’s model.In the end,the unified model was applied to simulate the Q&P hot stamping process of a U-cup part based on the finite element software LS-DYNA,where the calculated outputs were coincident with the measured consequences.

Distribution and assessment of hydrogeochemical processes of F-rich groundwater using PCA model:a case study in the Yuncheng Basin,China

Hydrogeochemistry and factor analysis were conducted together to assess the distribution and the major geochemical processes in fluoride-contaminated shallow groundwater in the Yuncheng Basin.Spatially,fluoride concentration was low(<1.5 mg/L)in the southern piedmont plain,medium(<4 mg/L)in the central basin,and high(up to 14.1 mg/L)in Kaolao lowland areas in shallow aquifers.A three-factor principal component analysis model explained over 75.1%of the total variance.Sediment weathering leaching and evapotranspiration were recognized as the first primary hydrochemical processes response for the groundwater chemistry and explained the largest portion(42.1%)of the total variance.Factor two reflects the negative influence of human activities,with a positive loading of NO3^-and HCO3^-,and negative loading of well depth.Fluoride-bearing mineral dissolution and alkaline condition was ranked as the third factors responding for groundwater chemistry and explained 11.2%of the total variance.