Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Development of Optimal Maintenance Policies for Offshore Wind Turbine Gearboxes Based on the Non-homogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Process

Gearbox in offshore wind turbines is a component with the highest failure rates during operation. Analysis of gearbox repair policy that includes economic considerations is important for the effective operation of offshore wind farms. From their initial perfect working states, gearboxes degrade with time, which leads to decreased working efficiency. Thus, offshore wind turbine gearboxes can be considered to be multi-state systems with the various levels of productivity for different working states. To efficiently compute the time-dependent distribution of this multi-state system and analyze its reliability, application of the nonhomogeneous continuous-time Markov process(NHCTMP) is appropriate for this type of object. To determine the relationship between operation time and maintenance cost, many factors must be taken into account, including maintenance processes and vessel requirements. Finally, an optimal repair policy can be formulated based on this relationship.

Development Situation and Strategy Analysis of Waxy Corn Processing Industry in Chongqing Municipality

With the development of society and economy and increasing awareness of people's diet and health care,the demand for waxy corn and its processed products has been rising. At present,the planting of waxy corn in Chongqing is taking shape,but the waxy corn processing is still in the initial stage with smaller enterprise scale and fewer processing product variety. Based on the analysis of the development advantages and disadvantages of waxy corn processing industry in Chongqing,this paper brings forward the development ideas and strategies of Chongqing waxy corn processing industry from three aspects of production,processing and policy.

A generalized geometric process based repairable system model with bivariate policy

The maintenance model of simple repairable system is studied.We assume that there are two types of failure,namely type Ⅰ failure(repairable failure)and type Ⅱ failure(irrepairable failure).As long as the type Ⅰ failure occurs,the system will be repaired immediately,which is failure repair(FR).Between the(n-1)th and the nth FR,the system is supposed to be preventively repaired(PR)as the consecutive working time of the system reaches λ^(n-1) T,where λ and T are specified values.Further,we assume that the system will go on working when the repair is finished and will be replaced at the occurrence of the Nth type Ⅰ failure or the occurrence of the first type Ⅱ failure,whichever occurs first.In practice,the system will degrade with the increasing number of repairs.That is,the consecutive working time of the system forms a decreasing generalized geometric process(GGP)whereas the successive repair time forms an increasing GGP.A simple bivariate policy(T,N)repairable model is introduced based on GGP.The alternative searching method is used to minimize the cost rate function C(N,T),and the optimal(T,N)^(*) is obtained.Finally,numerical cases are applied to demonstrate the reasonability of this model.

Security Policy Management Process within Six Sigma Framework

This paper presents a management process for creating adaptive, real-time security policies within the Six Sigma (6σ) framework. A key challenge for the creation of a management process is the integration with models of known Industrial processes. One of the most used industrial process models is Six Sigma which is a business management model wherein customer centric needs are put in perspective with business data to create an efficient system. The security policy creation and management process proposed in this paper is based on the Six Sigma model and presents a method to adapt security goals and risk management of a computing service. By formalizing a security policy management process within an industrial process model, the adaptability of this model to existing industrial tools is seamless and offers a clear risk based policy decision framework. In particular, this paper presents the necessary tools and procedures to map Six Sigma DMAIC (Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control) methodology to security policy management.

Export Value-Added of China’s Manufacturing Sector:Estimation and Mechanism Analysis

Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.

Policy Developments and Politics in Brazil： The Digital TV Decision-Making Process

Using an analytical narrative approach to understand policy change, this paper explores the Brazilian government decision to create a digital TV policy initiating major reforms in this sector. The analysis is centered on the actors, preferences, and choices. The article is divided into three parts： （1） We address the historical institutionalism assumptions; （2） We focus on the politics of digital TV policy in Brazil; and （3） The results are highlighted, and ＂winners＂ and ＂losers＂ are identified. Actors, preferences, and choices are historically observed and related to the government decision about rules of digital TV exploitation. It provides configurational evidence that makes it possible to associate major changes to two presidential decrees （n° 4.901/2003 and n° 5.820/2006） that reflect the preferences and behavior of the main actor （broadcasters, social movements, and federal government） around the new digital TV issues. The Brazilian case shows an institutional model in which federal government＇s decisions are strongly connected with the preferences of the actor broadcasters and goes against the actor social movements.

The Process of Policy Implementation： The Policy of HIV/AIDS Prevention in Youth Groups in Thailand

Thailand was implementing the policy of HIV/A1DS prevention in risky group, The youth is one of groups with sexual risk behaviors to HIV/AIDS. This research aims to elucidate the process of policy implementation at the national and regional levels, and to explain the obstacles of policy implementation. The method was qualitative study. The stakeholders were 88 people. The data were collected by in-depth interview and coded by a computer program. The policy was transferred from the national AIDS committee to the Department of Disease Control （DDC） and provincial level. This process was lacking budget support. The provincial AIDS committee was monitored by the provincial health office, cooperating with the central level. The major role was to transfer the policy to the school, Local Administration Organization （LAO） and associated organization. The activity was funded by provincial, global funds, and outside sources. In the community, the core activities were AIDS knowledge, establishing core youth groups, and building the network of AIDS. The obstacle at the national level was changing the policy process from one with a budget to one without budget. In the area of practice, the AIDS problem and the effects of the risk behavior in youth groups were slightly concerned.

A GDPR Compliant Approach to Assign Risk Levels to Privacy Policies

Data privacy laws require service providers to inform their customers on how user data is gathered,used,protected,and shared.The General Data ProtectionRegulation(GDPR)is a legal framework that provides guidelines for collecting and processing personal information from individuals.Service providers use privacy policies to outline the ways an organization captures,retains,analyzes,and shares customers’data with other parties.These policies are complex and written using legal jargon;therefore,users rarely read them before accepting them.There exist a number of approaches to automating the task of summarizing privacy policies and assigning risk levels.Most of the existing approaches are not GDPR compliant and use manual annotation/labeling of the privacy text to assign risk level,which is time-consuming and costly.We present a framework that helps users see not only data practice policy compliance with GDPR but also the risk levels to privacy associated with accepting that policy.The main contribution of our approach is eliminating the overhead cost of manual annotation by using the most frequent words in each category to create word-bags,which are used with Regular Expressions and Pointwise Mutual Information scores to assign risk levels that comply with the GDPR guidelines for data protection.We have also developed a web-based application to graphically display risk level reports for any given online privacy policy.Results show that our approach is not only consistent with GDPR but performs better than existing approaches by successfully assigning risk levels with 95.1%accuracy after assigning data practice categories with an accuracy rate of 79%.

地方政府如何提高农村厕所改造政策执行成效?——基于政策执行系统理论的实证分析

地方政府政策执行过程因政策差异而呈现出动态性和复杂性特征。分析典型政策的执行过程,总结政策执行过程的影响因素,对于深刻认识公共政策执行过程的复杂性,改进政策执行过程、增强政策执行效果具有积极意义。农村厕所改造政策是当前中国各地正在推行的典型政策,通过问卷调查获取数据,借鉴政策执行系统模型分析发现:政策执行资源、机构特性、系统环境以及政策执行者的价值偏好等因素,是我国地方政府政策执行过程的主要影响因素,对农村厕所改造政策执行成效的影响更为显著。自主性政策执行、曲解性政策执行以及象征性政策执行现象,导致地方政府政策执行偏差问题突出。据此,提出了矫正地方政府政策执行偏差、增强政策执行效果的政策建议。

营商环境治理效能提升的制度优势支撑:一个基于政策过程理论的框架建构

提升营商环境治理效能是营造市场化、法治化和国际化一流营商环境的必然要求,也是实现中国式现代化的关键抓手。从营商环境治理效能提升的结果出发,以政策过程理论为工具,追溯制度优势经由优化营商环境政策定位、政策制定与调整、政策执行和政策扩展到营商环境治理效能提升的过程性路径框架:在政策定位中,社会主义制度属性要求优化营商环境政策议程建立和坚持以人民为中心的政策理念;在政策制定与调整中,以实事求是的决策思想、民主集中的决策原则和不断创新的决策驱动力构成的决策模式保证优化营商环境的科学精准施策;在政策执行中,中国共产党集中统一的领导制度与中国特色科层组织体系嵌合形成的统筹协同的党政治理结构保障了优化营商环境政策的有效执行;在政策扩展中,集中力量办大事所蕴含的部署统筹性、全民动员力和资源集成性,推动优化营商环境政策不断纵深发展。

社会建构、反馈效应与延迟退休年龄政策停滞

党的十八届三中全会以来,我国屡次提出研究和制定“渐进式延迟退休年龄政策”的方针策略,然时至今日,全国性的延迟退休政策尚未出台。以社会建构与政策设计理论为理论基础与分析框架,以1951—2021年54份中央政府文件为样本,考察目标群体的社会建构如何通过反馈效应影响延迟退休年龄政策进程,研究发现:干部和高级专业技术人员被正面建构且因政策受益,产生正反馈,政策长期仅适用于该群体,普通劳动者被正面建构但因政策受损,产生负反馈,以致全国性政策无法出台,政策陷入停滞;而正反馈效应长期积累促使社会建构转向,社会环境因素改变政策认知,进而推动政策进程。因此,政策制定者坚定决心,不断优化政策设计,回应目标群体的社会建构转向;党和中央政府以积极应对人口老龄化战略吸纳延迟退休年龄政策,塑造公众政策认知;地方政府积极开展政策试验,总结经验教训,这些措施都有助于加快政策进程。

规模化CCUS-EOR项目技术经济性分析及启示

社会各界对规模化全流程CCUS-EOR项目经济性及其他相关重要问题认识不足,不利于跨行业、跨地区、跨部门项目实施。中国CCUS/CCS项目累积注入二氧化碳量超过1000万t,积累了丰富项目运营经验;基于我国驱油类CCUS产业链技术现状和成熟度分析,认为在鄂尔多斯盆地有序开展规模化全流程CCUS项目技术可行,结合区域油藏地质特点,提出边学习经验、边工程建设、边运行项目、边认识规律、边调整方案的复杂油藏CCUS滚动建设模式;选择陕西榆林—安塞—定边地区煤化工碳源与代表性油藏,开展了基于管道输送的300万吨级CCUS项目方案设计和投资概算;用改进的全流程CCUS项目经济评价模型,分析基准收益率、财税金融政策、碳交易价格、产量不确定性等可控变量对项目经济性的影响,对比若干规模化CCUS项目的临界效益井口碳价,提出统一产业链各环节经济评价基准收益率有助于三跨型CCUS项目合作,实施绿色低息贷款可降低CCUS-EOR项目临界效益油价,采取“后CCUS项目交易、埋存量下限交易、埋存减量绿色补偿”可解决CCUS项目碳交易争议,严格CO_(2)驱油试验选区可进一步改善项目经济性,以上核心产业政策建议有助于推进鄂尔多斯盆地CCUS技术规模化应用。

“双减”政策执行中的偏差行为研究——基于史密斯政策执行过程模型

为探究“双减”政策执行过程中的政策执行偏差行为,基于史密斯政策执行过程模型,从理想化政策、执行机构、目标群体及环境因素四个层面采用个案研究法对G省L县“双减”政策执行过程中出现的象征性执行、选择性执行、替代性执行等偏差行为进行成因分析,发现政策话语的模糊性和政策适应性的欠缺、目标群体利益基点下的理性选择、执行机构间的博弈及传统文化观念和教育生态环境的桎梏均对“双减”政策的执行效果产生叠加影响。基于此,提出如下纠偏对策:优化宏观设计,完善政策内容;革新教育理念,减少工具理性;完善利益协调机制,助力政策执行;突破文化桎梏,构建良好生态,以期为改进“双减”政策执行偏差问题并有效执行政策提供参考。

黑龙江省农产品加工产业发展与现状分析

农产品加工业是农业现代化的标志,但黑龙江省农产品加工产业仍以传统初加工模式为主,精深加工领域发展落后。本文在对黑龙江省农产品加工产业现状、农产品加工产业发展的重要性,及农产品加工产业发展的制约因素等方面开展系统阐述的基础上,提出黑龙江省农产品加工产业良性快速发展的可行性建议,即建设科企互作平台、形成行业发展合力,创新技术更新产品、加强技术装备配套,扭转地域劣势、扬长避短加强宣传,加强平台建设、引领良性循环。

社会技术融合:政策信息学的由来、范畴与框架

政策信息学是涉及政策科学、信息学等多学科的新兴交叉领域,从情报学视角去观察和梳理政策信息学的由来、范畴与框架,能为政策信息学提供学科发展的土壤,并增强情报学的话语权和生命力。首先,本文基于社会技术系统理论,从社会和技术两方面系统阐述了政策信息学的缘起由来,并阐明其研究范畴,对代表性概念及研究进行总结和辨析。其次,从社会技术融合视角构建了面向政策过程全生命周期的政策信息学分析框架,梳理政策信息学分析的研究问题、方法和工具。最后,对政策信息学的研究与应用进行展望,认为未来政策信息学将继续进行社会技术融合,并围绕全流程分析、全数据挖掘、全主体服务、全方位评价、全时空推演等五个方面深化拓展。图5。表3。参考文献66。

基于改进Faster R-CNN的电力检修工程智慧监测

提出一种改进Faster R-CNN的目标检测模型用于智能化电力检修工程,构建了电力检修设备的数据集,并对其进行了数据清洗和数据增强。为了提高模型对被物体在遮挡以及复杂背景情况的识别能力,在模型中嵌入了精心设计的ESAM注意力模块,优化了模型的特征提取能力。ESAM注意力模块通过多尺度处理和跨空间学习方法,在保持计算效率的同时,能够更好地捕捉和利用图像特征中的重要信息,从而提高模型的整体性能。设计了多组实验并可视化模型效果,实验结果进一步验证了模型的有效性。该研究对于提高电力检修工作的效率和质量,保障电力系统的安全运行,从而支撑“双碳”目标的实现,具有一定的理论意义和实际价值。

地方特色发展政策动员、情境式行动及效能评价——N市S镇“万亩良田整治工程”过程分析

政策动员对于提升地方治理能力具有重要作用。本文追踪N市S镇“万亩良田整治工程”推进特色发展政策落地、空间重构到模式示范的过程,依据“过程-情境”叙事范式,建构“调适-稳定”的分析框架,阐释地方政府政策动员的过程机制和演变逻辑。研究发现,地方政府实施政策动员需依据行政、市场和社会三重逻辑,推进议题协商,构建实践共同体,完成地方情境化的政策调适和议题改造,达成政策框架内多重组织行动系统的稳定态势。政策动员需以制度创新和整合社会资源为载体,迎合“有效”与“合法”双重逻辑,运用调适策略构建稳定的政策共生机制,推动区域性集体行动的达成,实现基层治理效能提升。此外,本文进一步揭示了政策动员在地方特色产业发展框架下的现实策略和典型模式,完善了地方治理政策实践建构的过程性理论研究。

高校课程建设政策的演进逻辑与理性选择

新中国成立以来,我国高校课程建设政策经历了以恢复国家建设和学习苏联为中心的初建阶段、以适应社会变革为切入点的规范发展阶段、以提升教育质量为动力的深入发展阶段;遵循着以人才培养为目标的政策动力机制、以学生需求为重心的政策价值取向、以政策工具为托底的政策实施过程保障、以经济学为主导的政策话语规则的演变逻辑。未来,我国高校课程建设政策应该要构建以协调政策主体利益为基点的动力机制、渗透以多元价值为依归的目标价值取向、强化以政策工具为支柱的政策实施过程保障、强化以民众参与为根本的政策话语规则。

乡镇中心幼儿园建设政策执行的阻碍因素与优化策略——基于史密斯政策执行过程模型的分析

乡镇中心幼儿园建设政策执行的结果影响着农村学前教育高质量发展。基于对华东地区S省J县W镇的个案研究,结合史密斯政策执行过程模型分析所收集的资料,发现乡镇中心幼儿园建设政策执行的主要阻碍因素有政策形式及政策方案的模糊性、乡镇政府事权与财权的不匹配、家长和教师的认知偏差、人口出生率下降和城镇化进程加快等。推进乡镇中心幼儿园建设政策有效执行,需要增强政策目标及内容的针对性,在落实“以县为主,省级统筹”的财政管理体制基础上强化基层政府政策执行能力,改善教师待遇以及增强教育质量,并坚持全面推进乡村振兴战略。