Assessment of Climate for Agricultural Suitability and Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Production in the Guanzhong Region, Shaanxi Province

Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method. Three coefficients, in- cluding the resource coefficient （Cr）, the efficiency coefficient （Ce）, and the utility co- efficient （K）, were used in the models, which were calculated based on temperature, moisture, and sunshine duration data of Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province. The results indicated that resource coefficient was higher in west of the region than that in east, and higher in south （especially in the Central Shaanxi Plain） than that in the Weibei plateau. The value of Cr changed from 6.5 to 9.2 from north to plain area. Spatial change of efficiency coefficient was obvious, lower in the northeast than in the central plain, and the value of Ce changed from 2.3 to 6.5 from the northeast to the central plain. As for utility coefficient, it was lower in northeastern part of the Weibei plateau and in southern mountain areas than that in the central plain, showing significant latitudinal zonality. Furthermore, the value of K increased from 0.35 to 0.78 from northeast to the central plain, and decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 from the central plain to southern mountain areas. These indicated that climate resource in the central plain region was more abundant and potential, compared with other regions. GuanZhong region was classified into three larger agricultural zones and three small independent zones, according to agro-ecological assessment. Light, heat and water resources should be made use of in an efficient way in spatial allo- cation of agricultural production. For example, water facilities should also be im- proved in Weibei plateau region where highly-qualified fruit should be enhanced and fruit processing industrial chain should be shaped. Large-scale production area of wheat should be increased in central irrigation region and more vegetable bases should be developed around large and medium-scale cities. Thanks for outstanding water conservation function, the three-dimensional agriculture including medicine and other sideline production should be developed in Qinling Mountains and the special- ized commercial agriculture should be accelerated in independent small zones, ac- cording to local conditions. In the research, different crop varieties were developed in corresponding regions as per current eco-climatic conditions.

Availability-based simulation and optimization modeling framework for open-pit mine truck allocation under dynamic constraints

We present a novel system productivity simulation and optimization modeling framework in which equipment availability is a variable in the expected productivity function of the system. The framework is used for allocating trucks by route according to their operating performances in a truck-shovel system of an open-pit mine, so as to maximize the overall productivity of the fleet. We implement the framework in an originally designed and specifically developed simulator-optimizer software tool. We make an application on a real open-pit mine case study taking into account the stochasticity of the equipment behavior and environment. The total system production values obtained with and without considering the equipment reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) characteristics are compared. We show that by taking into account the truck and shovel RAM aspects, we can maximize the total production of the system and obtain specific information on the production availability and productivity of its components.

A study on the allocation of productive factors of Chinese agriculture

Chinese agriculture is undergoing a transformation process from traditional agriculture into modern agricultrue.This article discusses how land. labor, fertilizer, machinery etc. are used in agricultural production of different regions. reveals the influence of natural conditions and economic level on the utilization of modern agricultural factors. It proposes a system of allocation hoes of regional agricultural productive factors and points out the development stage and tendency of allocation of agricultural productive factors in different regions.

Application Research of Oil Development Costs in Reservoir Management

Based on oil development costs, the application research in the technical and economic limits calculation of oil development and the production optimal allocation to all the oilfields, was finished. At the same time, according to the regression of real development costs, a new method for oil well economic water cut and oil well economic rate are set up, the production optimal allocation is developed with satisfactory results.

A Reasonable Approach for the Development of Shale Gas Wells with Consideration of the Stress Sensitivity

High-pressure deep shale gas reservoirs are usually highly stress-sensitive.When the reasonable production mode of shale gas well is built,the impact of strong stress sensitivity should be fully considered.First,this study calculated the relationship between permeability and formation pressure under different elastic modulus based on the shale lithology of Long Ma Xi formation in Sichuan Basin by testing and analysing the mechanical parameters of the rock.According to numerical simulation result,when the elastic modulus exceeds 14.0 GPa,the stress sensitivity of the matrix will slight affect the cumulative gas production of shale gas.Second,the changing relation between fracture conductivity and permeability with fracture pressure and the time of pressure acts were experimentally studied.The numerical simulation result suggested that the 30-year cumulative gas production considering the stress sensitivity was reduced by 13.5%compared with the 30-year cumulative gas production without considering the stress sensitivity.Finally,the production of different production modes under different stress sensitive characteristics was predicted using numerical simulation method.When the matrix and fractures are fixed with a same stress-sensitive curve,the initial production allocation will not significantly impact the cumulative gas production.When the fractured fractures are subjected to a varying stress sensitive curve,the lower production allocation will result in higher post-production and cumulative gas production.

Study on the Problem of Multistage Vaccine Production and Allocation with Capacity Constraints

Vaccination is the best way to build an immune barrier to control a new infectious disease.Considering the limited production capacity at the initial stage of vaccine production,the problem of multistage vaccine production and allocation is studied under the policy of free treatment for infected patients by the government.Given the population and infection rates of different regions and the vaccine production capacity of each stage,an integer programming model is established to minimize the sum of production-and-vaccination cost and treatment cost of infected patients,which is solved by the GUROBI solver.The correctness of the model is verified by simulation,and the necessity of considering the treatment cost of infected patients in the objective function is further analyzed,which confirmed the correctness of the free treatment policy for patients in China.A heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the large-scale problem and numerical experiments are conducted to verify the efficiency of this algorithm.Furthermore,based on the sensitivity analysis results of parameters,the optimal vaccine production and allocation strategy are proposed,which provide the decision basis for the government departments to make reasonable vaccine production and vaccination plan.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China between 1980 and 2010 by using spatial production allocation model

Understanding crop patterns and their changes on regional scale is a critical re- quirement for projecting agro-ecosystem dynamics. However, tools and methods for mapping the distribution of crop area and yield are still lacking. Based on the cross-entropy theory, a spatial production allocation model （SPAM） has been developed for presenting spa- tio-temporal dynamics of maize cropping system in Northeast China during 1980-2010. The simulated results indicated that （1） maize sown area expanded northwards to 48~N before 2000, after that the increased sown area mainly occurred in the central and southern parts of Northeast China. Meanwhile, maize also expanded eastwards to 127°E and lower elevation （less than 100 m） as well as higher elevation （mainly distributed between 200 m and 350 m）; （2） maize yield has been greatly promoted for most planted area of Northeast China, espe- cially in the planted zone between 42°N and 48°N, while the yield increase was relatively homogeneous without obvious longitudinal variations for whole region; （3） maize planting density increased gradually to a moderately high level over the investigated period, which reflected the trend of aggregation of maize cultivation driven by market demand.

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION PLANNING UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES

In this paper we demonstrate the need for risk-adjusted approaches to planning expansion of livestock production. In particular, we illustrate that under exposure to risk, a portfolio of producers is needed where more efficient producers co-exist and cooperate with less efficient ones given that the latter are associated with lower, uncorre, lated or even negatively correlated contingencies. This raises important issues of cooperation and risk sharing among diverse producers. For large-scale practical allocation problems when information on the contingencies may be disperse, not analytically tractable, or be available on aggregate levels, we propose a downscaling procedure based on behavioral principles utilizing spatial risk preference structure, It allows for estimation of production allocation at required resolutions accounting for location specific risks and suitability constraints. The approach provides a tool for harmonization of data from various spatial levels. We applied the method in a case study of livestock production allocation in China to 2030.

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.

Apply neural network for improving production planning at Samarang petrol mine

Purpose-Artificial neural network(ANN)is considered a good solution for building non-linear relationship between input and output parameters,which is suitable for solving production back allocation,which is the most important step for production planning of petroleum mine.The purpose of this paper is to suggest a solution for solving production back allocation problem at Samarang petrol mine based on ANN approach.Design/methodology/approach-In this study,well operational parameters’surveillance was conducted and ANN was used to build relationships between operation parameters and production rates.Experimental method is used for testing and evaluating the possibility of using ANN for supporting production planning at Samarang mine.Findings-Consequently,the proposed ANN solution can increase the accuracy of predicted values and could be used for supporting production planning at Samarang mine.Because ANN uses well test data for training and predicting(without adding new devices),it could be a feasible and cheap solution.Research limitations/implications-There is a need for applying other methods,such as:support machine vector,non-linear autoregressive models,etc.for better evaluation of ANN solution.Practical implications-The ANN models helped operation engineers to understand well production performance and make decision to improve production plan in timely manner.This solution could be generalized for the whole mine or to similar petroleum mines in practice.Originality/value-This paper aims to propose a solution based on ANN for solving production back allocation problem of petroleum industry.The solution is tested at Samarang mine.