The Operation Mechanism of Agricultural Products Supply Chain and Profit Allocation Model in the Context of Asymmetric Information

The research performed analysis on causes of asymmetric information of agricultural product supply chain and made conclusion on operation mechanism and characteristics of supply chain based on asymmetric information. Finally, the research detailed profit sharing of agricultural product supply chain in the context of asymmetric information and proposed suggestions, providing references of pricing and profit sharing of supply chains of agricultural products.

Dynamic optimal allocation of energy storage systems integrated within photovoltaic based on a dual timescale dynamics model

Energy storage systems(ESSs)operate as independent market participants and collaborate with photovoltaic(PV)generation units to enhance the flexible power supply capabilities of PV units.However,the dynamic variations in the profitability of ESSs in the electricity market are yet to be fully understood.This study introduces a dual-timescale dynamics model that integrates a spot market clearing(SMC)model into a system dynamics(SD)model to investigate the profit-aware capacity growth of ESSs and compares the profitability of independent energy storage systems(IESSs)with that of an ESS integrated within a PV(PV-ESS).Furthermore,this study aims to ascertain the optimal allocation of the PV-ESS.First,SD and SMC models were set up.Second,the SMC model simulated on an hourly timescale was incorporated into the SD model as a subsystem,a dual-timescale model was constructed.Finally,a development simulation and profitability analysis was conducted from 2022 to 2040 to reveal the dynamic optimal range of PV-ESS allocation.Additionally,negative electricity prices were considered during clearing processes.The simulation results revealed differences in profitability and capacity growth between IESS and PV-ESS,helping grid investors and policymakers to determine the boundaries of ESSs and dynamic optimal allocation of PV-ESSs.

Research on The Factors Affecting Profit Allocation Based on Virtual Supply Chain

Traditional profit allocation solutions cannot be effectively applied to the practice for the limitations in their premises and principles. This paper based on the practical processes of virtual supply chain performs analysis on major factors relative to cost and risk which effect the profit allocation among the partners, and then proposes the quantitative relations between the factors and profit allocation. The relations can serve as a base for further research on extensive profit allocation model.

Resource Allocation for Network Security Risk Assessment：A Non-Cooperative Differential Game Based Approach

In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, including response cost and response negative cost. The whole assessment process is considered as a differential game for optimal resource control. The proposed scheme can be obtained through the Nash Equilibrium. It is proved that the game theory based algorithm is applicable and the optimal resource level can be achieved based on the proposed algorithm.

A Distributed Algorithm for Parallel Multi-task Allocation Based on Profit Sharing Learning

经由联盟形成的任务分配是在多代理人系统(妈) 的几应用程序域的基本研究挑战，例如资源分配，灾难反应管理等等。怎么以一种分布式的方式分配许多未解决的任务到一些代理人，主要处理。在这篇论文，我们在自我组织、自我学习的代理人之中建议一个分布式的平行多工分配算法。处理状况，我们在二维的房间地理上驱散代理人和任务，然后介绍为寻找它的任务由的一个单个代理人的分享学习的利润(PSL ) 不断自我学习。我们也在代理人之中为通讯和协商介绍策略分配真实工作量到每个 tasked 代理人。最后，评估建议算法的有效性，我们把它与 Shehory 和 Krau 被许多研究人员在最近的年里讨论的分布式的任务分配算法作比较。试验性的结果证明建议算法罐头快速为每项任务形成一个解决的联盟。而且，建议算法罐头明确地告诉我们每个 tasked 代理人的真实工作量，并且能因此为实际控制任务提供一本特定、重要的参考书。

Policy and Profit Allocation for the Cooperative Development of Natural Gas Resource on Chinese Offshore Continental Shelf

China has a wide sea waters with their offshore continental shelf covering over 1 million km?.Rich oil-gas resources are lying under the sea waters.In accordance with the conventional international assessment method for oil and gas resources,it is expected that the gas reserve volume in China is approximately 14000 billion cu.m.Particularly,the Yinggehai Basin,Qiongdo-ngnan Basin and Zhushan Depression in the Pearl River Mouth basin of the South China Sea are rapidly subsiding basins with more than 100 million km2 of prospects for exploration,where the geological conditions are favourable for generation of rich natural gas.

Risk Allocation and Mitigation in Nigeria’s Privatisation Programme—A Case Study of Electric Power Sector Privatisation

Under the Nigerian privatisation programme, the issues of risk allocation and mitigation were never always properly handled. Historically, there had always been a tendency to dump all the project risks on the private sector partner without properly evaluating whether it was capable of managing them. Extant literature has shown that where the comparative advantages of parties to handle risks are not properly taken into consideration, the allocation of risk is unbalanced and the tendency for the project to run into difficulties and/or fail increases. This paper looks at the electric power sector privatisation, distilling how key project risks were handled under the exercise. This should be a good pointer as to whether the privatisation exercise would be a success in the long run.

A Brief Analysis on Risk allocation for Public-Private Partnership Projects in China

Public-Private Partnership （PPP） financing modalily has the ability of alleviating the budgetary pressure to the government. fulfilling the need of infrastructure development, and improving the efficiency of investment and operation. However, the negotiations between the government and the investors are time-consuming and costly, due to the perspective differences in risk allocation and revenue distribution. Disputes often arise during concession period because of changes in various risks or non-performance of its obligalions, especially when one sector was forced to accept the requirements by the other as a result of the unequal status, the project urgency or other reasons. Only a few PPP projects in China could perform successfully. There is therefore a need to develop an equitable risk allocation mechanism for the delivery of PPP projects in China so as to improve the efficiency of private investment in infrastructure development.

Dynamic spectrum allocations in multi-cells and intra-cell of cognitive network to enhance system performance

In this study, we propose new dynamic spectrum allocations in multi-cells and intra-cell of cognitive network to enhance system performance in terms of decreasing probability of interruption and spectrum handoff of communication services in a cognitive system. The inter-cells of the spectrum allocation mechanism is designed to share the risk of vacating spectrum caused by licensed incumbents re-occupying the spectrum and minimize probability of service interruption in the cognitive network. This mechanism also can guarantee fairness among multi-cells. The intra-cell of the proposed spectrum allocation is based on a service data hierarchical model and establishes a mapping mechanism between layered data and the spectrum. It can reduce probability of spectrum handoff. Finally, simulation results are given and show that the new mechanism can reduce service interruption ratio and the probability of spectrum handoff caused by licensed incumbents with re-occupying the spectrum.

Profitability Prediction Model for NPD Projects Under RisK

Only a few successful new product development （NPD） projects are continuously supported by the firm when they are expected to assure profitability in the market. The profitability of a project is measured as profit ratio （PR）, the profit is divided by the cost. The profit figure is changed depending on either internal risks or uncertainties occurring externally. More risks require higher response costs to them and uncontrollable uncertainties affect NPD projects either positively or negatively. In this study, a PR model is developed to predict the profitability of a project at a given time. The model minimizes the response cost computed under two extreme response strategies, such as ＂Avoid＂ and ＂Acceptance＂ for the internal threats. Also, the model reflects the sales volume changes due to external uncertainties. The linear programming （LP） method determines the optimal probability of the response strategy under three scenarios of defining the relationship between risk avoidance and risk acceptance. It can be utilized to make a GO/NOGO decision on the project based on the prediction results at any gate of the NPD process. The solving procedure is provided to apply the developed model for real cases.

The Relationship Between Credit Risk Management and Profitability Among the Commercial Banks in Kenya

Banks operate in an environment of considerable risks and uncertainty. Credit risk has always been a vicinity of concern not only to bankers but to all in the business world because the risks of a trading partner not fulfilling his obligations in full on due date can seriously jeopardize the affairs of the other partner. Credit risk management in banks has become more important not only because of the series of financial crisis that the world has experienced in the recent past, but also the introduction of Basel II Accord. The objective of the study was to establish the relationship between credit risk management and profitability in commercial banks in Kenya, Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in order to fulfill the main purpose of the study. A regression model was used to do the empirical analysis. The results obtained from the regression model show that there is an effect of credit risk management on profitability at a reasonable level. The findings and analysis reveal that credit risk management has an effect on profitability in all the commercial banks analyzed.

Capital allocation for cash-subadditive risk measures:From BSDEs toBSVIEs

In the context of risk measures,the capital allocation problem is widely studied in the literature where different approaches have been developed,also in connection with cooperative game theory and systemic risk.Although static capital allocation rules have been extensively studied in the recent years,only few works deal with dynamic capital allocations and its relation with BSDEs.Moreover,all those works only examine the case of an underneath risk measure satisfying cash-additivity and,moreover,a large part of them focuses on the specific case of the gradient allocation where Gateaux differentiability is assumed.The main goal of this paper is,instead,to study general dynamic capital allocations associated to cash-subadditive risk measures,generalizing the approaches already existing in the literature and motivated by the presence of(ambiguity on)interest rates.Starting from an axiomatic approach,we then focus on the case where the underlying risk measures are induced by BSDEs whose drivers depend also on the yvariable.In this setting,we surprisingly find that the corresponding capital allocation rules solve special kinds of Backward Stochastic Volterra Integral Equations(BSVIEs).

Risk Assessment and Defense Resource Allocation of Cyber-physical Distribution Systems Under Denial-of-service Attacks

With the help of advanced information technology,real-time monitoring and control levels of cyber-physical distribution systems(CPDS)have been significantly improved.However due to the deep integration of cyber and physical systems,attackers could still threaten the stable operation of CPDS by launching cyber-attacks,such as denial-of-service(DoS)attacks.Thus,it is necessary to study the CPDS risk assessment and defense resource allocation methods under DoS attacks.This paper analyzes the impact of DoS attacks on the physical system based on the CPDS fault self-healing control.Then,considering attacker and defender strategies and attack damage,a CPDS risk assessment framework is established.Furthermore,risk assessment and defense resource allocation methods,based on the Stackelberg dynamic game model,are proposed under conditions in which the cyber and physical systems are launched simultaneously.Finally,a simulation based on an actual CPDS is performed,and the calculation results verify the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Risks and new transformations of PPP contracts

This paper tries to demonstrate that the principle of the risk allocation based on the balance is the most effective way to resolve the risk allocation problems of public-private partnership （PPP） contracts and presents suggestions how to carry out this principle. For PPP projects, it is necessary to set up a workable and commercially viable risk sharing mechanism to satisfy the different interests and the objectives of both the public sector and the private sector. An effective risk allocation mechanism is not only an important part in preparing project documents, but also an essential part in the success of PPP contracts. Risk allocation can be represented in a risk matrix. The more balanced the risk allocation is, the lower the risk degree of PPP contracts is. Therefore, the most effective risk allocation of PPP contracts is that the public sector and the private sector take part in risk management together in all the stages of the project and allocate the balanced risks. The outcomes of this paper can be used by both the public sector and the private sector to make a good choice of the PPP contract form.

The Import Risk Analysis under the Circumstances of Reform and Opening up Policy in China

China's opening up has brought about the chances and the risks to the import trade at the same time.The thesis puts the focus on four kinds of risks in the import practice.They are respectively about policy change,customers'operating capacity and credit status,exchange rate fluctuation and contract currency and contract terms.The impacts of those risks on the developing import trade in China are profound and lasting.

Risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity on product spaces

In this paper, by an axiomatic approach, we propose the concepts of comonotonic subadditivity and comonotonic convex risk measures for portfolios, which are extensions of the ones introduced by Song and Yan （2006）. Representation results for these new introduced risk measures for portfolios are given in terms of Choquet integrals. Links of these newly introduced risk measures to multi-period comonotonic risk measures are represented. Finally, applications of the newly introduced comonotonic coherent risk measures to capital allocations are provided.

Competition and Profitability of Banks: Empirical evidence from the Middle East & North African (MENA) Countries

This paper uses generalized method of moments(GMM),Least Squares(LS)and Generalized Linear Model(GLM)to examine the impact of competition on profitability of banks and Stochastic Frontier approach(SFA)is used to estimate of cost efficiency.We have used an unbalanced panel dataset from a sample of emerging economic MENA countries over the period between 2011 and 2017.We find out that have a significant and negative impact of competition on profitability of banks.The empirical findings of this study suggest that(1)MENA banks should more improve the process of managing and monitoring the loan segment business;the result which reducing in the level of credit risk which leads to higher profitability(2)MENA banks should shrink higher level of banking sector development.(3)MENA banks should make full conduct of available funds to engage in various natures of businesses;if there is an issue of insolvency,robust government support would give protection to MENA banks.Finally,it also provides some compulsory policy implications which will be very much beneficial for a wide range of stakeholders.

Randomized Objective Function Linear Programming in Risk Management

The traditional linear programming model is deterministic. The way that uncertainty is handled is to compute the range of optimality. After the optimal solution is obtained, typically by the simplex method, one considers the effect of varying each objective function coefficient, one at a time. This yields the range of optimality within which the decision variables remain constant. This sensitivity analysis is useful for helping the analyst get a sense for the problem. However, it is unrealistic because objective function coefficients tend not to stand still. They are typically profit contributions from products sold and are subject to randomly varying selling prices. In this paper, a realistic linear program is created for simultaneously randomizing the coefficients from any probability distribution. Furthermore, we present a novel approach for designing a copula of random objective function coefficients according to a specified rank correlation. The corresponding distribution of objective function values is created. This distribution is examined directly for central tendency, spread, skewness and extreme values for the purpose of risk analysis. This enables risk analysis and business analytics, emerging topics in education and preparation for the knowledge economy.

Randomized Constraint Limit Linear Programming in Risk Management

Traditional linear program (LP) models are deterministic. The way that constraint limit uncertainty is handled is to compute the range of feasibility. After the optimal solution is obtained, typically by the simplex method, one considers the effect of varying each constraint limit, one at a time. This yields the range of feasibility within which the solution remains feasible. This sensitivity analysis is useful for helping the analyst get a feel for the problem. However, it is unrealistic because some constraint limits can vary randomly. These are typically constraint limits based on expected inventory. Inventory may fall short if there are overdue deliveries, unplanned machine failure, spoilage, etc. A realistic LP is created for simultaneously randomizing the constraint limits from any probability distribution. The corresponding distribution of objective function values is created. This distribution is examined directly for central tendencies, spread, skewness and extreme values for the purpose of risk analysis. The spreadsheet design presented is ideal for teaching Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis to graduate students in business analytics with no specialized programming language requirement.

On a Certain Method of Rejecting Games With Too Much Risk and Not Enough Expected Gain

Many important economic decisions involve an element of risk.Risk aversion is a concept in economics,game theory,finance,and psychology related to the behavior of consumers,players,and investors under uncertainty.Loss aversion is an important component of a phenomenon that has been widely discussed in recent years.It refers to a tendency to feel the pain of a loss more acutely than the pleasure of an equal-sized gain.Many scientists have analyzed the problem of profitability in games.Some authors presented certain features which characterize“safe”games played once.Kahneman and Tversky(1991)showed that the ratio of loss aversion to gain attraction should amount to 1:2.The aim of this paper is to show an asymptotically efficient strategy which enables the risk-averse player to establish boundary variables of loss and gain at each stage of a repeated game.