A Mathematical Methodology for the Preventive Study of the Failure Rate to Optimize the Maintenance Program of a Public Work: Economic-Management Aspects for Safety and Quality

In this paper we analyze the problem of the assessment of the failure rate of the complex public work system and the engineering part of it (bridge, tunnel, etc.), examining the case of serious maintenance problems, such as those which occurred in the recent disaster of the "Morandi bridge". The original mathematical methodology envisaged makes it possible to optimize the safety and quality scenarios of the operation and infrastructure in question, also from an economic-management point of view, evaluating every aspect in an integrated way and for the entire period life. The scientific results obtained are of particular interest for the study of maximization of the planning protocols of "terotechnological" interventions, providing a contribution to the science of programmed maintenance for the mobility networks and for more complex parts such as bridges and tunnels.

Does the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program Enhance the Abnormal Rate of Return and Transaction Volatility of the Underlying Stocks:A Quasi-Natural Experimental Design

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Program,which is a new starting point for the opening up of the mainland capital market,still has many uncertainties.Research on the benefits and market volatility of such policies can provide investors with time to invest in such policies,fluctuations in the underlying stocks of the Chinese stock market,and decision support for the formulation and revision of relevant policies.This paper studies whether there is significant abnormal rate of return in the selected stocks which are in the Shanghai Stock Connect Program within the specified period,the excess return gap between the stocks which are in the program and which are not in the program,and the impact of the Shanghai Stock Connect Program on the volatility of the relevant stocks.Based on the CAPM model and the Fama-French 3-factor model,this paper uses t test to study the significance of the abnormal rate of return.By establishing a difference-in-difference(DID)model,the regression of the abnormal rate of return is tested,and the sample volatility is analyzed according to the influence of the fund transaction.The study found that the stocks in the program have significant abnormal rate of returns during the window period.The Shanghai Stock Connect has brought about a huge change in transaction amount,and policy makers need to improve related and similar policies.

Effectiveness and tolerability of programmed cell death protein-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy for upper gastrointestinal tract cancers

BACKGROUND The combination of programmed cell death protein-1(PD-1)inhibitor and che-motherapy is approved as a standard first-or second-line treatment in patients with advanced oesophageal or gastric cancer.However,it is unclear whether this combination is superior to chemotherapy alone.AIM To assess the comparative effectiveness and tolerability of combining PD-1 inhibitors with chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone in patients with advanced gastric cancer,gastroesophageal junction(GEJ)cancer,or oesophageal carcinoma.METHODS We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for studies that compared the efficacy and tolerance of PD-1 inhibitors in combination with chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone in patients with advanced oesophageal or gastric cancer.We employed either random or fixed models to analyze the outcomes of each clinical trial,en-compassing data on overall survival(OS),progression-free survival(PFS),objective response rate,and adverse events(AEs).RESULTS Nine phase 3 clinical trials(7016 advanced oesophageal and gastric cancer patients)met the inclusion criteria.Our meta-analysis demonstrated that the pooled PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group had a significantly longer OS than the chemotherapy-alone group[hazard ratio(HR)=0.76,95%confidence interval(CI):0.71-0.81];the pooled PFS result was consistent with that of OS(HR=0.67,95%CI:0.61-0.74).The count of patients achieving an objective response in the PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group surpassed that of the chemotherapy-alone group[odds ratio(OR)=1.86,95%CI:1.59-2.18].AE incidence was also higher in the combination-therapy group than in the chemotherapy-alone group,regardless of whether≥grade 3 only(OR=1.30,95%CI:1.07-1.57)or all AE grades(OR=1.88,95%CI:1.39-2.54)were examined.We performed a subgroup analysis based on the programmed death-ligand 1(PD-L1)combined positive score(CPS)and noted extended OS and PFS durations within the CPS≥1,CPS≥5,and CPS≥10 subgroups of the PD-1 inhibitor+chemotherapy group.CONCLUSION In contrast to chemotherapy alone,the combination of PD-1 inhibitor and chemotherapy appears to present a more favorable option for initial or subsequent treatment in patients with gastric cancer,GEJ tumor,or oesophageal cancer.This holds true particularly for individuals with PD-L1 CPS scores of≥5 and≥10.

Maximum Data Collection Rate in Rechargeable Wireless Sensor Networks with Multiple Sinks

In rechargeable wireless sensor networks, a sensor cannot be always benefi cial to conserve energy when a network can harvest excessive energy from the environment due to its energy replenished continually and limited energy storage capacity. Therefore, surplus energy of a node can be utilized for strengthening packet delivery efficiency and improving data collection rate. In this work, we propose an algorithm to compute an upper data generation rate that maximizes it as an optimization problem for a network with multiple sinks, which is formulated as a linear programming problem. Subsequently, a dual problem by introducing Lagrange multipliers is constructed, and subgradient algorithms are used to solve it in a distributed manner. The resulting algorithms are guaranteed to converge to an optimal data generation rate, which are illustrated by an example in which an optimum data generation rate is computed for a network of randomly distributed nodes. Through extensive simulation and experiments, we demonstrate our algorithm is efficient to maximize data collection rate in rechargeable wireless sensor networks.

Assessing an Educational Program to Improve Documentation and Reduce Pain in Hospitalized Patients

Few experimental studies have evaluated the efficacy of continuing educational programs aimed at the improvement of nurses’ pain-management skills. This study assessed whether a standardized educational program aimed at nurses could increase the use of the Numeric Rating Scale-11 in both documenting and reducing postoperative pain-intensity levels in hospitalized surgical patients. The study had a quasi-experimental pre- and post-intervention design. Data were collected from records of surgical patients prior to and after the standardized educational program was completed. There were no significant differences between pre- and post-intervention groups in terms of either pain-documentation frequency or pain-intensity level. The study showed no increase in the frequency of postoperative pain documentation and no reduction of surgical patients’ postoperative pain-intensity level. This finding indicates that the standardized educational program on postoperative pain management was insufficient to bring about changes in clinical practice.

Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI on Technical Efficiency—A Case Study of Vietnamese Agricultural Sector

The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.

Effects of Plasticizers,Antioxidants and Burning Rate Modifiers on Aging Performance of the HTPB/HMDI Composite Solid Propellant

The effects of plasticizers,antioxidants and burning rate modifiers on the aging performance of the composite solid propellant based on hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene(HTPB)/hexamethylene diisocyanate(HMDI)were explored by apply-ing an accelerated aging program for 90 day at 70 ℃. The HTPB propellant matrix with the diisooctyl sebacate(DOS)as plasti-cizers and diisooctyl azelate(DOZ), antioxidants as N,N ′-Diphenyl-p-phenylenediamine(AO) and 2,2′-methylenebis(4-methyl-6-tert-butylphenol)(cyanox 2246)and burning rate modifiers as barium ferrite(BF),copper chromites(CC)and fer-ric oxide(FO)were varied. Results show that sample(S1)which based on DOS decreases the stress value and increases the strain value which considered to be an excellent start for aging program. Sample(S3)containing AO presents the higher resis-tance to oxidation showing the better performance that reflects on increasing the shelf life of the composite solid propellant mo-tor. Sample(S5)which based on BF enhances the ballistic performance among over the other tested two samples. The accelerat-ed aging program allowed us to estimate the motor in-service lifetime.

An SQP algorithm for mathematical programs with nonlinear complementarity constraints

In this paper, we describe a successive approximation and smooth sequential quadratic programming （SQP） method for mathematical programs with nonlinear complementarity constraints （MPCC）. We introduce a class of smooth programs to approximate the MPCC. Using an 11 penalty function, the line search assures global convergence, while the superlinear convergence rate is shown under the strictly complementary and second-order sufficient conditions. Moreover, we prove that the current iterated point is an exact stationary point of the mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints （MPEC） when the algorithm terminates finitely.

Improvement in cryosurvival of buffalo bull (Bubalus bubalis) sperm by altering freezing rate within critical temperature range

Objective:To optimize the cryopreservation of buffalo bull semen by altering freezing rates within critical temperature range (4℃ to -60℃). Methods: A total of 20 ejaculates each from 5 Murrah buffalo bulls were cryopreserved using programmable biofreezer in 2 phases. In the 1st phase, 9 freezing rates were applied at -2, -5, -10, -20, -30, -40, -50, -60 or -4℃/min (control) from 4℃ to -15℃;at -40℃/min from -15℃ to -60℃. In the 2nd phase, a fixed freezing rate was applied at -30℃/min from 4℃ to -15℃. Six freezing rates were applied at -10, -20, -30, -40 (control), -50 or -60℃/min from -15℃ to -60℃. The freezing from -60℃ to -140℃ were fixed at -50℃/min in both the phases. Post thaw semen quality was assessed in terms of motility, viability, membrane integrity (hypo-osmotic swelling test), sperm abnormalities, and active mitochondria. Data were arc sine transformed and analyzed through one-way analysis of variance using SPSS software. Results: In the 1st phase, percent individual motility, progressive motility and viability were similar among various protocols. Percent hypo-osmotic swelling reactive sperm was higher with freezing at -30℃/min. In the 2nd phase, percent individual motility, viability and hypo-osmotic swelling reactive sperm was higher with freezing at -50℃/min. Sperm head abnormalities were lower at -30℃/min in the 1st phase, but were similar among the protocols of the 2nd phase. Percent active mitochondria were higher at -30℃/min in the 1st phase and at -50℃/min in the 2nd phase.Conclusions:The optimum post thaw semen quality of buffalo bull could be obtained by applying freezing rate at -30℃/min (4℃ to -15℃) and at -50℃/min (-15℃ to -140℃), followed by plunging of straws in into liquid nitrogen for storage.

Computer program of nonlinear, curved regression for ‘probacent’-probability equation in biomedicine

On the basis of experimental observations on animals, applications to clinical data on patients and theoretical statistical reasoning, the author developed a com-puter-assisted general mathematical model of the ‘probacent’-probability equation, Equation (1) and death rate (mortality probability) equation, Equation (2) derivable from Equation (1) that may be applica-ble as a general approximation method to make use-ful predictions of probable outcomes in a variety of biomedical phenomena [1-4]. Equations (1) and (2) contain a constant, γ and c, respectively. In the pre-vious studies, the author used the least maximum- difference principle to determine these constants that were expected to best fit reported data, minimizing the deviation. In this study, the author uses the method of computer-assisted least sum of squares to determine the constants, γ and c in constructing the ‘probacent’-related formulas best fitting the NCHS- reported data on survival probabilities and death rates in the US total adult population for 2001. The results of this study reveal that the method of com-puter-assisted mathematical analysis with the least sum of squares seems to be simple, more accurate, convenient and preferable than the previously used least maximum-difference principle, and better fit-ting the NCHS-reported data on survival probabili-ties and death rates in the US total adult population. The computer program of curved regression for the ‘probacent’-probability and death rate equations may be helpful in research in biomedicine.

Micra AV无导线起搏器植入术后随访优化对房室同步率的影响

目的分析Micra AV无导线起搏器植入术后的房室同步率,探讨术后程控优化对房室同步率的影响。方法采用前瞻性队列研究,选取2022年8月至2023年6月于首都医科大学附属北京安贞医院行Micra AV无导线起搏器植入的持续三度房室传导阻滞患者,于术后1周、1个月和3个月分别进行程控和优化,记录房室同步率、电学参数和超声心动图等。结果共入选68例植入Micra AV的三度房室传导阻滞患者,平均年龄(68.2±9.7)岁,其中男47例(69.1%)。所有患者均成功植入Micra AV,术后无严重并发症发生;术中和术后1周、1个月、3个月的平均阈值、感知、阻抗参数稳定;术后超声心动图左心室射血分数变化差异无统计学意义(P=0.162);术后1周、1个月、3个月的平均房室同步率分别为(75.2%比83.8%比91.6%,P=0.001),差异有统计学意义。结论Micra AV作为心房机械感知,需要个性化来调整相关参数。术后随访程控和优化对于三度房室传导阻滞患者植入Micra AV后的房室同步起搏和舒适度体验具有重要作用。

Risk stratification of renal transplant recipients using routine parameters: Implication of learning from SARS-CoV-2 into transplant follow-up program

BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2(SARS-CoV-2)infection is a global pandemic that is associated with a high risk of morbidity and mortality among recipients of solid organ transplantation.In the course of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection,various laboratory markers have been identified as predictors for high risk of mortality.AIM To risk stratify renal transplant recipients(RTxR)using general demographic parameters,comorbidities and routine laboratory markers for the severity of the disease and its outcomes.We believe that learning about these routinely monitored parameters can help us plan better strategies for the RTxR follow-up program.METHODS This present study includes RTxR who acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 2020 to February 2021.We recorded the basic demographics,comorbidities and routine laboratory markers.We investigated the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on RTxRs and risk-stratified the progression of disease severity and outcomes in terms of recovery or mortality.RESULTS From 505 RTxRs in our renal transplant follow-up program,29(7.75%)RTxRs had PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection.We recorded 8 deaths from SARS-CoV-2 infection giving an overall mortality rate of 1.6%but a significant 27.6%mortality in SARS-CoV-2 positive recipients.Age more than 68 years,non-Caucasian ethnicity and male gender were associated with a significant drop in survival probability;P≤0.001.<0.001 and<0.0001 respectively.87.5%of the deceased were diabetic;P≤0.0.0001.Estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 26 mL/min/1.73 m2,serum albumin less than 20 g/L,Hemoglobin less than 9.6 g/L and serum calcium less than 1.70 mmol/L were all associated with significantly increased risk of mortality;P=0.0128,<0.001,<0.0001 and 0.0061 respectively.CONCLUSION This study has identified some routinely used modifiable parameters in predicting a higher risk of mortality and morbidity.This knowledge can be used in RTxR follow-up programs by addressing these parameters early to help reduce the morbidity and mortality in RTxRs.

Joint Rate Allocation and Buffer Management for Robust Transmission of VBR Video

在这份报纸我们在场在接收装置与播放调整机制在来源集成率分配和缓冲区控制的一个适应录像传播框架。传播率被使用在录像流嵌入以一个精制方法调整传播率的程序钟引用(PCR ) 的一个率分配算法决定。服务者方面也维持多重缓冲区让一些不同重要性层次根据来源缓冲区尺寸，视觉影响，和播放截止时间为控制损失做贸易离开随机的损失。在边界上播放调整机制基于 proportional-integra (PI ) ，控制器在接收装置被采用根据全面损失和接收装置缓冲区占有最大化显示的录像的视觉质量。我们的建议框架的表演在模拟以山峰 signal-to-noise 比率(PSNR ) 被评估，并且模拟结果象译码的框架的更好的质量一样表明平均 PSNR 价值的改进。

高速公路货车空车差异化费率优化的双层规划方法

为解决高速公路货车由计重收费调整为按车型收费导致货车空车分流的问题,本文建立一种基于双层规划模型的货车空车分车型差异化费率优化方法。首先,以高速公路经营主体实现收费收益最大化为目标构建上层规划模型,考虑高速公路通行效率提升及增量货车空车增加的管养支出;其次,以道路使用者实现出行效用最大化为目标构建下层规划模型,构建基于逻辑回归模型和随机效用最大化理论的货车空车出行效用函数,分析货车空车特性变量对出行效用的影响;然后,采用多层神经网络模型及三次艾尔米特插值法,预测不同费率优惠下高速公路货车空车增量交通量,作为上下层联系变量;最后,以高速公路与平行老路构成的运输通道为例,采用内存受限的拟牛顿优化算法(L-BFGS-B)求解高速公路货车空车分车型最优费率。结果表明:高速公路费率折扣率对货车空车各车型出行选择影响最为显著;此外,车籍地对一类、四类货车空车出行选择影响较大,运输类型对二类、三类和六类货车空车出行选择影响较大;与现行费率方案相比,优化后的费率方案年度增加通行费收入3941万元,高速公路通行效率提升4.17%,货车空车平均每车出行效用增加3.51。

2017-2022年北京市怀柔区免疫规划疫苗接种报告情况分析

目的回顾性分析2017-2022年北京市怀柔区免疫规划疫苗接种报告数据,为进一步做好接种率监测报告工作提供参考。方法利用北京市免疫规划监测信息管理系统获取2017-2022年北京市怀柔区免疫规划疫苗接种率监测数据,对接种报告的及时性、完整性、可靠性进行分析评价。结果2017年1月1日至2022年12月31日,北京市怀柔区各预防接种单位免疫规划疫苗接种报告及时性、完整性均为100%;5种免疫规划疫苗PV1-3、DTaP1-3、MMR/MR1、JE-L1、MPSV1-2基础免疫报告接种率均在96%以上,估算接种率为90.53%~127.42%;D值评价指标:可信占36.67%,可疑占50.00%,不可信占13.33%;R值评价指标:可信占66.67%,可疑占29.17%,不可信占4.17%。结论2017-2022年北京市怀柔区常规免疫接种率监测系统运行良好,大部分常规免疫疫苗维持在较高接种水平,但可能存在流动儿童摸底不够清晰、报告接种率偏高的问题,需要更精准掌握应种儿童人数,优化免疫规划监测信息管理系统接种率判定功能,做好漏种儿童补种等,进一步强化常规免疫接种率监测工作。

“圈养湖羊的空间利用率”评阅综述

介绍2023年“高教社杯”全国大学生数学建模竞赛D题“圈养湖羊的空间利用率”的主要建模思路,并简要评述该题参赛论文的总体情况.

考虑运行图抽线调整的城际铁路动车周转计划编制

针对现有城际铁路动车组周转计划编制方法未考虑运行线客座率分布,导致抽线调整时难以单独停运低客座率车次而不影响高客座率车次的问题,本文提出一种适用于运行图抽线调整的动车组周转计划优化编制方法。以最小化动车组使用数量及交路中运行线客座率差异为目标,考虑满足一级修等约束条件,构建非线性整数规划模型;通过线性化处理并结合Hierholzer's算法筛选合格解的方式,高效求解模型。案例分析表明:相较于只考虑动车组使用数量的传统方法,该模型在不增加动车组使用数量的情况下,可以显著降低各交路中运行线客座率的差异。优化后的交路中运行线客座率极差提高了68.67%,交路中运行线客座率方差之和降低至对比方案的66.27%。抽线调整时,采用优化方案能够更精确地优先取消低客座率运行线,有效保留高客座率运行线。在抽线条数分别设定为1,2,3的情况下,优化方案停开的运行线中,客座率低于60%的运行线的占比均保持在77%以上,而对比方案中该比例均未超过45%;优化方案中被取消车次的平均客座率比对比方案分别降低了4.48%、5.88%和6.01%。

基于基因表达式编程算法的数据驱动型平板闸门流量计算方法

灌区是国家水网建设的重要内容,精准量测和控制过闸流量过程是灌区用水管理的关键。为实时获取高精度的平板闸门过流量,以物理试验为基础,首先采用仿真模型分析了不同工况下闸前闸后流线与流速分布、水深-流量变化关系,其次,以仿真模型的模拟结果作为训练集,采用基因表达式编程算法(Gene Expression Programming,GEP)构建了融合闸前/后水深与开度的闸门过流量算法,并以更多的仿真模型模拟结果作为测试集,对比分析了该算法的性能。结果表明:①fluent数值模拟能在不同闸门开度和流量组合下重现复杂流线和流速分布过程,且模拟的流量过程与实测结果拟合良好,但效率低下,无法满足实际闸控的实时性需求;②GEP算法能够保持仿真模型的精度,且能达到实时计算;③与存在多个率定参数的经典闸孔出流分段公式相比,无任何率定参数的GEP算法的精度更高;④以仿真模型的模拟结果为基准,GEP算法比BP神经网络的精度更高、泛化性更好。因此,GEP算法更适宜平板闸门过流量的计算,可为灌区用水管理提供技术支撑。

诱导换羽过程中光照程序对蛋鸡卵巢功能重塑的辅助作用

家禽是长日照动物,科学合理的光照程序对蛋鸡的生长发育、性成熟、开产日龄、产蛋高峰等都有显著影响,在诱导换羽的禁食和恢复采食的不同阶段,设定相应的光照程序对于提升诱导换羽效果具有重要的意义。该研究选用529日龄体重相近、产蛋率约为60%的贵妃蛋鸡为试验材料,根据禁食诱导换羽的不同时期,将光照制度的变化分4个阶段,并于第Ⅰ阶段(16 h L/8 h D,禁食前)、第Ⅱ阶段(8 h L/16 h D持续3 d)、第Ⅲ阶段(10 h L/14 h D持续13 d)的最后1天(F 0、F 3、F 16)和第Ⅳ阶段(逐渐增加光照0.5 h/d至恢复到16 h L/8 h D)的第6、32天(R 6、R 32)5个不同时期屠宰采样,通过卵泡数量、卵巢抗氧化指标、KIT-PI3K-PTEN-AKT信号通路和GDF9基因表达量等来探究光照程序在禁食诱导换羽过程的作用。结果表明,缩短光照蛋鸡血清中生殖激素FSH、LH、E 2和P 4的水平降低(P<0.001),超氧化物歧化酶(P<0.05)、谷胱甘肽过氧化酶(P<0.001)活力增强,在此过程中原始卵泡可能被激活,使小黄卵泡(P<0.01)、大白卵泡(P>0.05)的数量增多;逐渐恢复光照时长过程中KIT和PI3K处于持续高表达状态(P<0.001),PTEN相对表达量降低(P<0.01),而AKT相对表达量基本不变(P>0.05),且血清中生殖激素水平和卵巢抗氧化水平恢复到初始状态,但整体卵泡数量有所上升。该结果表明在禁食换羽过程中科学合理的光照程序对卵巢功能的重塑具有辅助作用。