From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

Starting with the meanings of the terms “risk” and “uncertainty,””he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of “risk” and “uncertainty” interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective, and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

θ-improved limited tolerance relation model of incomplete information system for evaluation of water conservancy project management modernization

The modernization of water conservancy project management is a complicated engineering system involving a management system, a management method, management personnel, the exertion of social, economic, and ecological effects, and so on. However, indices for evaluating the modernization of water conservancy project management are usually unobtainable in practical applications. Conducting appropriate extension of the classical rough set theory and then applying it to an incomplete information system are the key to the application of the rough set theory Based on analysis of some extended rough set models in incomplete information systems, a rough set model based on the θ-improved limited tolerance relation is put forward. At the same time, upper approximation and lower approximation are defined under this improved relation. According to the evaluation index system and management practices, the threshold for θ is defined. An example study indicates the practicability and maneuverability of the model.

A Review on the Role of Risk Management (RM) and Value Engineering (VE) Tools for Project Successful Delivery

Both in developed and in developing countries, the construction industry is regarded as an economic investment activity without forgetting its significant relationship with national economic development due to its great contributions to the national gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. Concerning construction processes, both risk management (RM) and value engineering (VE) techniques have commonalities from the beginning up to the completion of the project due to enhancing the project value/quality, meeting the project deadline, and reducing overall project cost. VE includes resolving the uncertainty of project objectives and ensuring that the project is delivered in a value for money way. The key point of RM is to solve the uncertainty of the project itself and its results to ensure that the specifications are achieved within the prescribed time, cost, and quality constraints. This review work is comparatively and collectively focused on assessing the role of RM and VE tools for project successful delivery. It studies the points of difference and common features of the two aspects in terms of construction project delivery. So, this study concluded that in construction RM tool cannot be the chief aim of the all parties involved in the project execution because sometimes it produces itself negative results and reduces project management success. Therefore, RM needs a strong combination with VE due to the dependence of the target in identifying and assessing risks by considering the highest performance and lowest cost. The integration of RM and VE combination in a single study would avoid duplication of work and deliver better value for money thereby leading to better project outcomes.

Understanding of an‘Enlightened Planning’Approach in Project Risk Management

This article explains the execution and delivery progression phases of the project lifecycle.It is the third phase of the project lifecycle that leads to the final realization of the project's goals.However,this essay will describe the understanding of the‘enlightened planning’approach during the execution and delivery strategy progress of a project’s lifecycle.The features and details in the Enlightened Planning and PMI PMBOK Guide are compared.The author explored the nature and role of basic frameworks such as the project lifecycle,the process phase structure,and key project definition questions—the seven Ws(Who,Why,What,Which way,Wherewithal,When,Where).Combining Enlightened Planning and PMI PMBOK Guide,the differences between the two approaches are given.In addition,the author elaborated the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches in current practice.

Predictive Analytics for Project Risk Management Using Machine Learning

Risk management is relevant for every project that which seeks to avoid and suppress unanticipated costs, basically calling for pre-emptive action. The current work proposes a new approach for handling risks based on predictive analytics and machine learning (ML) that can work in real-time to help avoid risks and increase project adaptability. The main research aim of the study is to ascertain risk presence in projects by using historical data from previous projects, focusing on important aspects such as time, task time, resources and project results. t-SNE technique applies feature engineering in the reduction of the dimensionality while preserving important structural properties. This process is analysed using measures including recall, F1-score, accuracy and precision measurements. The results demonstrate that the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) achieves an impressive 85% accuracy, 82% precision, 85% recall, and 80% F1-score, surpassing previous models. Additionally, predictive analytics achieves a resource utilisation efficiency of 85%, compared to 70% for traditional allocation methods, and a project cost reduction of 10%, double the 5% achieved by traditional approaches. Furthermore, the study indicates that while GBM excels in overall accuracy, Logistic Regression (LR) offers more favourable precision-recall trade-offs, highlighting the importance of model selection in project risk management.

The Effect of the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis on Enterprise Risk Management Disclosure of Top US Banks

We document the effect of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the volume and the quality of enterprise risk management （ERM） disclosure in the annual reports of the largest US banks, and analyze its determinants. Using a content analysis approach of the annual reports form 10-K for the years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, we find that the ERM disclosure is significantly and positively associated with the crisis, bank size, board independence, duality and significantly and negatively associated with profitability, leverage, and board size. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by investigating the effect of the crisis on ERM disclosure in the US banking sector context, and gives an insight into the factors affecting risk disclosure practices during the financial crisis.

Risk Management： A New Project Management Perspective

Risk management in Botswana has been very ineffective at assisting projects to be on time, on budget, and meeting client＇s/buyer＇s expectations. Traditional risk management attempts to manage, control, and direct a project through various phases, from planning and design, through procurement, and to construction. However, the risk management in Botswana seems to be either not implemented or not successful. The project performance in Botswana has a poor performance record. The researchers are attempting to identify why the traditional project/risk management is not working. In analyzing the problem in Botswana, the researchers discovered that the traditional risk management model was theoretically unsound, and designed a new project and risk model, with an entirely different approach to risk. The new model is an outgrowth of the highly successful Performance Information Procurement System （PIPS） and the Information Measurement Theory （IMT）/Kashiwagi Solution Model （KSM） concepts. The approach has been presented to some Botswana clients and academics and has received a favorable response. The development of the new risk model will lead to a huge change in the paradigm for delivering projects in Botswana. The theoretical development of the new risk model is ongoing at the University of Botswana as a part of a doctoral dissertation.

On the Application of IPRA Tool in Risk Assessment and Management of International Construction Projects

Construction companies face threats from competition and must be able to adjust to modem technology and changes in customer expectations. These issues require efficient risk management techniques. The success of construction companies running projects in international markets depends on how the risks arise from the host country conditions as well as the project specific risk factors. Successful management of risks requires identification of risks, construction of a risk model which can be used to assess the magnitude of risks, and implementation of response strategies so that an acceptable risk-return balance can be achieved. The project success usually depends on the combination of all risks, response strategies used to mitigate risks, and a company＇s ability to manage them. There exists a need to develop risk models containing the risks of doing business in international markets and factors that affect manageability of these risks. One of the market＇s critical challenges is scheduled management and the understanding and application of program management. This paper uses systematic risk identification, classification and analysis, and measurement and response methodologies to help international contractors quantify the risks of project development and accomplishment.

The risk aversion measures in Architectural Engineering Project Management

With the continuous development of the construction industry, the scale and volume of the construction project is expanding. And the project management of the construction project still has the big risk problem which influenced by many factors. These risks will not only bring unnecessary interference to the construction of the project, but also may jeopardize the safety of people＇s life and property. It is the focus of this article to do a good job in risk aversion in the management of construction projects.

Risk Management and Operation Strategies of Chinese Overseas Risk Exploration Projects

Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep mucking up the business all around the world.Meanwhile,China’s rapid energy consumption growth boosted by a booming economy has put the country to rely heavily on exported oil.It is therefore extremely urgent to expand and diversify petroleum supply channel in consideration of the country’s energy security.As the world’s economy has been slowly recovering from the slump and

The 2008 Irish Dioxin Crisis:Prevention is better than Crisis Management

In Ireland, in 2008, pig feed manufactured from recycled human food became contaminated with dioxin and this led to a global recall of all Irish pork products produced from 1st September to 6th December 2008. This case study illustrates several points a) the food chain is only as secure as its weakest link, b) due to the complexity of the modern food chain, once pork is processed, precise traceability to a particular farm of origin is impossible, c) even with a single food agency, overseeing the policing of the food chain, things can go wrong, d) it demonstrated the benefits of having credible consumer protection agencies to undertake scientific risk assessment and communicate with the public, e) if risk management decisions are taken quickly, and communicated in an open and transparent manner to the public, adverse human health effects can be avoided and consumer confidence can maintained, f) in the EU the legal limit for dioxins in pork fat is 1 picogram per gram (10-12 ) and attempting to communicate the risks associated with this level of contamination plus the concepts of bioaccumulation and body burden and the need for continued exposure to result in adverse health effects is extremely challenging, g) there was a major economic impact and damage to the country's reputation as a food exporter and finally h) it illustrates that prevention is better that crisis management. Other countries can learn lessons from this incident that may prevent similar occurrences in their jurisdictions.

Ecological Risk Management of Drinking Water Project: The Case Study of Kunming City

Following rapid infrastructure development and industrialization, the problems of water pollution and water shortage have become more severe. Whether there is safe drinking water in cities has attracted wide attention.The ecological risk management of drinking water project is an important means of ensuring the safety of a drinking water source. Based on ecological risk assessment and management theories, this paper establishes an ecological risk management model and assessment system with the aim of providing theoretical guidance and scientific basis for formulating a policy on the safety and protection of drinking water sources in a city. Kunming is one of the cities plagued by severe water shortage in China. Its ecological risk management of drinking water has attracted the attention of both the local government and the public.Using Kunming as the case study, this paper conducts a comparative analysis and assessment on three major reservoirs that face ecological risks. It highlights the existing problems and gives helpful suggestions.

A Practical Framework Applied to IT Project Risk Management

Based on studying the five core sub-processes and the other two assistant ones of project risk management, the paper introduces P^2I^2 formula by analyzing the characteristics of IT projects and the stage which IT project risk management belongs to, and then presents a new risk management framework abbreviated as GPS, which contains risk management Guide, Process/thread model and risk State chart.

Model of generic project risk element transmission theory based on data mining

In order to construct the data mining frame for the generic project risk research, the basic definitions of the generic project risk element were given, and then a new model of the generic project risk element was presented with the definitions. From the model, data mining method was used to acquire the risk transmission matrix from the historical databases analysis. The quantitative calculation problem among the generic project risk elements was solved. This method deals with well the risk element transmission problems with limited states. And in order to get the limited states, fuzzy theory was used to discrete the historical data in historical databases. In an example, the controlling risk degree is chosen as P(Rs≥2) ≤0.1, it means that the probability of risk state which is not less than 2 in project is not more than 0.1, the risk element R3 is chosen to control the project, respectively. The result shows that three risk element transmission matrix can be acquired in 4 risk elements, and the frequency histogram and cumulative frequency histogram of each risk element are also given.

Impacts of the Financial Factors on Schedule Delays Risk of the International Contracting Projects: Evidence from Highway BOT Pro-jects in Vietnam

Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.

Research on Risk Evaluation Method for International Engineering Projects

Risk evaluation is one of the important elements of international engineering project management. The risk factors of international engineering projects are systematically analyzed from multiple dimension features of the projects. The muhilayer evaluation index system for the international engineering project risk assessment is proposed and constructed, which consists of 8 I-grade indexes and 24 II-grade indexes as policy risk, market risk, resource risk, and technical scheme risk, schedule risk, funding risk, personnel risk and management risk. And then the self-evaluation and benchmarking evaluation methods are applied to evaluate the international engineering project risk, and established the corresponding mathematical models. Finally, a project evaluation example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the mathematical models.

Analyses on schedule-cost coefficient correlation of spaceflight project based on historical statistics and its application

When analyze the uncertainty of the cost and the schedule of the spaceflight project, it is needed to know the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. This paper deduces the schedule distribution, considering the effect of the cost, and proposes the estimation formula of the correlation coefficient between the in（schedule） and the cost. On the basis of the fact and Taylor expansion, the relation expression between the schedule-cost correlation coefficient and the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient is put forward. By analyzing the value features of the estimation formula of the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient, the general rules are proposed to ascertain the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. An example is given to demonstrate how to approximately amend the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical statistics, which reveals the traditional assigned value is inaccurate. The universality of this estimation method is analyzed.

A Novel Method for Assessing and Optimizing Software Project Process Based Risk Control

A new approach for assessing and optimizing software project process based on software risk control presented, which evaluates and optimizes software project process from the view of controlling the software project risks. A model for optimizing software risk control is given, a discrete optimization algorithm based on dynamic programruing is proposed and an example of using above method to solve a problem is also included in this paper. By improving the old passive post-project control into an active effective preaction, this new method can greatly promote the possibility of success of software projects.

Risk Assessment at the Design Phase of Construction Projects in Ghana

The study was carried out exclusively in Ghana to explore the approaches employed by consultants in risk assessment at the design phase of projects in Ghana. One hundred and fourteen (114) consultants were selected out of a population of one hundred and eighty six (186) from three main professional associations in Ghana made up of the Ghana Institute of Architects, Ghana Institution of Engineers and the Ghana Institution of Surveyors (Quantity Surveying Division) practicing in Ghana for the study. Both primary and secondary data were collected. A descriptive survey was also used to observe and describe the presence, frequency or absence of characteristics of a phenomenon as it naturally occurred, in order to gain additional information. A questionnaire was also designed to collect data from the architects, engineers and quantity surveyors. The data was analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Scientists (SPSS) 17.0. Descriptive and inferential statistics, such as frequency tables, percentages and cross tabulations were used in the data analysis and summaries. Simple tests of associations were undertaken by using Chi square and Cramer’s V statistics to compare relationships between variables. Again, relative importance index was also used to analyze some of the data by computing to deduce their rankings. The relative importance index was used to analyze some of the data by computing to deduce their rankings. The research revealed that majority of consultants had an average knowledge of risk management. Based on the findings it was recommended that consultants undergo advanced training in risk assessment. It was therefore suggested that consultancy firms should develop a set of laid down procedures for consultants to use in risk assessment in order that the use of intuition employed by majority is lessened. The challenges observed in risk assessment and the remedial steps suggested curtailing the detrimental effects of risks would be of wide importance to many developing economies.

An Analysis of the Benfit on Green Risk in Construction Projects

The Construction project green risks (CPGRs) refer to those threats to environment, energy sources and material re-sources during the entire life-cycle of a construction project. The emergent green risks in exploiting these resources are of varying concern to all. In this paper, evolutionary game is introduced to make about impacts of strategy choices from interactions among the choices developers, and between the choices developers and EPDs on project green risk. The results show that CPGRs will occur if either developers find that not managing CPGRs has a better payoff than opting for CPGR management, or if monitors impose only mild fines even when they find CPGRs within construction projects of developer’s firms. The study also shows that there is a prohibitively expensive cost incurred by EPDs in monitoring CPGRs. Finally, some strategies are given for EPDs to help them make policies to regulate the strategies of developers.