CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation over Northern China:Further Investigation

Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the allmodel ensemble(AMME),“highest-ranked”model ensemble(BMME),and“lowest-ranked”model ensemble(WMME),from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture budgets.The results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the WMME.Compared with the AMME and WMME,the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation,thereby improving the simulation of winter precipitation.The three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar,characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly jet.However,the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME,contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast China.Compared to the AMME and WMME,the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5).One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is larger.The projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a role.In addition,larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China.

CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections.

Program evaluation and its application to equipment based on super-efficiency DEA and gray relation projection method

For the gray attributes of the equipment program and its difficulty to carry out the quantitative assessment of the equipment program information, the gray relation projection method is simply reviewed. Combining the super-data envelopment analysis（DEA） model and the gray system theory, a new super-DEA for measuring the weight is proposed, and a gray relation projection model is established to rank the equipment programs. Finally, this approach is used to evaluate the equipment program. The results are verified valid and can provide a new way for evaluating the equipment program.

Discussion on Project Interim Evaluation

Based on the actual demand of project Management (PM) and the traditional conceptof Project Evaluation (PE), we extend the concept and connotation of PE In this paper, wepresent the concept of PE corresponding to the whole project life cycle, and divide it into ProjectEx Ante Evaluation (PAE), Project lnterim Evaluation (PIE) and Project Ex Post Evaluation(PPE), and mainly analyze PIE.

The Application of Case Method in the Teaching of Investment Project Evaluation

Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business management,in this way,it is helpful to cultivate and develop students’active participation in class discussion.For investment students,specialized courses such as Investment Project Evaluation and corporate finance are concentrated in the upper grades,and in the freshman,sophomore phase has completed the Finance,finance,macroeconomics and other basic courses.On the basis of students’existing knowledge structure,the course“Investment Project Evaluation”needs to fully tap students’potential in learning and train students’practical problem-solving ability,to cultivate students’thinking ability of combining theoretical knowledge with practical cases,to avoid the teaching mode of“I tell you to listen”,and to guide students to think,analyze and solve problems actively.

Application of PPE Model in Land Adaptability Appraisal in Small Basin Based on RAGA

The paper applies multi-dimension to lower technology-projection pursuit evaluation model in the conservation of water and soil discipline domain, optimizes the projection direction using the improved acceleration genetic algorithms, transforms the multi-dimensional data target to lower sub-space, and values soil adaptability of Dongdagou basin in Keshan County by searching the optimal projection direction and the projection function data. The paper provides a new notion and method for the conservation of water and soil in small basin.

PERT and CPM in Project Management with Practical Examples

This paper reviewed the concepts of Project Evaluation Review Technique and Critical Path Method in project management with practical examples. The methods and success of quantitative decision-making approaches in project management through the use of project evaluation review technique and the critical path method as regards project duration and critical activities of a project, were discussed. The review found that while both methods are effective in achieving success in project management, the relationship and connectivity of activities involved in a project life cycle are key aspects. The paper concludes that the project evaluation review technique is more effective when the duration of the project is uncertain, while the critical path method is effective when the project’s end time is certain. The paper, therefore, recommends that to achieve maximum operative efficiency in utilizing resources in project management, prior to commencing the execution of a project, all required resources to cover every activity must be assembled and prioritized to eliminate interruptions that could bring delay and unnecessary cost implications. Again, policies focused on improving project execution should be implemented in developing nations to minimize the many cases of failed and delayed projects. Subsequently, stakeholders in projects must be given the right, under the law, to prosecute the government, its agencies and/or the executors of projects for failure to execute a project on schedule.

Economic Evaluation of a Water Source Project

This paper describes a new method which is different with the shadow price method to evaluate the economic benefits of the water source project. The approach is to take the water source as a constraint on the regional economic development, calculate the difference between the generaded when the water source project is in operation and the gross product generated when the project is nonexistent, and then review the economic benefits on the project. For this purpose, we have constructed an input-output linear programming model and compiled a compatible using the routines for solving the input-output linear programming model. The above models and the routines have been used in paractical calculation of economic benefits of a water source project for a region. The computation result are satisfactory.

我国健康建筑的评价实践与思考

In January 2017,the Assessment Standard for Healthy Building(T/ASC 02-2016)was published.The issue and application of this standard indicates that healthy buildings have developed from labs to field in China.Based on it,the concept of healthy buildings has been gradually implemented in the construction industry and has achieved preliminary results.This paper conducted statistical analysis on the healthy indexes level from 48 certificated projects and quantitatively demonstrated the practical effect of health building projects in China.At the same time,through the analysis of the healthy measures for different types of projects,this study also made a statistical analysis for the operational difficulty of the provisions of the standard in practice,providing practical reference for the continuous updating and improvement of the health building standard and providing reference for the project construction and the manager’s strategy formulation.Specific conclusions are as follows:(1)The health effects of the health building projects are reflected in several aspects:The average annual concentrations of indoor PM2.5 and PM10 are 14.8 and 23.9μg/m^3,respectively;the indoor average annual concentrations of formaldehyde and TVOC are 0.043 and 0.228 mg/m^3,respectively;68.8%of the total hardness of drinking water in the project is less than 150 mg/L(calculated by CaCO3);85.4%of the main functional rooms reached the thermal comfort level of ClassⅠ;the free fitness area takes 1.9%of the total area.(2)The higher the quality of the project is,the better the balance among the healthy elements is.In general,the score of items related to water takes 59%and 55%for comfort,which are significantly lower than that of air(82%),fitness(84%)and humanity(73%).However,the degree of practice completion is relatively low.It is suggested that the standard compilers should refer to the difficulty feedback of project practice in the process of standard revision.(3)According to the difficulty index value from low to high,the provisions are divided into 1-5 categories.Among them,9 provisions(6.2.15,8.2.4,6.2.4,8.2.3,8.2.9,6.2.6,7.2.6,7.2.4,6.2.14)have significant differences in the difficulty index between public construction and residential construction.(4)The non-participation rates of 6 provisions(5.2.3,6.2.4,6.2.15,6.2.16,7.2.6,8.2.8)were 64%,93%,64%,64%,77%and 84%,respectively.There are three types of reasons:Residential buildings do not participate in the evaluation,public buildings do not participate in the evaluation and projects without designated special space do not participate in the evaluation.Therefore,it is suggested that in the process of standard perfection,corresponding measures should be taken to improve the effective use rate of provisions.(5)In this paper,measure provisions in the standard are summarized into 16 technical measures,among which intelligent lighting technology,natural lighting technology and outdoor acoustic environment construction technology score rate are significantly lower.There are obvious differences in the selection of public buildings and residential buildings in terms of indoor acoustic environment control technology,natural lighting technology,fitness site design and child-friendly design.

The Research and Application of the Strategic Analysisand Selection of R&D Project

On the basis of important role of science and technology in economic development, thisarticle systematically studies and discusses strategic evaluation techniques and methods of R&D projectfrom management sector’s angles. Firstly, it summarizes the existing R&D project evaluation methods.Then the ’three step’ method of R&D project evaluation is presented, that is (1) the benefit and successprobability of R&D project are evaluated based on the fuzzy influence diagram, (2) the portfolio analysisin the structure of R&D project is studied. (3) ’0-1’ model is used for project selection. The methodcan combine qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation, and describe the relationship betweenfactors that influence project’s result, thus improve the decision level of R&D project evaluation andselection. Finally, by means of practical application, the effectiveness and feasibility of the method areverified.

How the “Best” CMIP5 Models Project Relations of Asian–Pacific Oscillation to Circulation Backgrounds Favorable for Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Based on the simulations of 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the present study assesses their capacity to simulate the relationship of the summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation （APO） with the vertical zonal wind shear, low-level atmospheric vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric divergence in the lower and upper troposphere, and western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） that are closely associated with the gen- esis of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. The results indicate that five models can simultaneously re- produce the observed pattern with the positive APO phase accompanied by weak vertical zonal wind shear, strengthened vorticity in the lower troposphere, increased mid-level humidity, intensified low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and a northward-located WPSH over the western North Pacific. These five models are further used to project their potential relationship under the RCPS.5 scenario during 2050 2099. Compared to 1950-1999, the relationship between the APO and the vertical zonal wind shear is projected to weaken by both the multi-model ensemble and the individual models. Its linkage to the low-level vorticity, mid-level humidity, atmospheric diver- gence in the lower and upper troposphere, and the northward-southward movement of the WPSH would also reduce slightly but still be significant. However, the individual models show relatively large differences in projecting the linkage between the APO and the mid-level humidity and low-level divergence.