he stress-strength interferenee model can be used for the structure with-out fatigue cracks. It is not available for the structure that is often damaged slightlysuch as propellers. A two-dimensional interferenee relia...he stress-strength interferenee model can be used for the structure with-out fatigue cracks. It is not available for the structure that is often damaged slightlysuch as propellers. A two-dimensional interferenee reliability model using thetwo-dimensional fatigue load distribution and the distribution of fatigue crack growththreshold for the reliability of the structure with fatigue crack is established. The relia-bility of the propeller of Y7-200B with different crack sizes is listed. A damage toler-ance analysis using an interference integration formula with the two-dimensional loaddistribution is carried out for the propeller and the fatigue crack inspection period withgiven reliability is presented.展开更多
Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by c...Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by considering the variability of ship collision scenario parameters. However, the existing models were limited by the capability of the collision computational models and did not completely capture collision scenario, and material and geometric uncertainties. In this paper, a novel framework to performance characterisation of ships in collision involving a variety of striking ships is developed, by characterising the structural consequences with efficient response models. A double-hull oil carrier is chosen as the struck ship to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Response surface techniques are employed to generate the most probable input design sets which are used to sample an automated finite element tool to compute the chosen structural consequences. The resulting predictor-response relationships are fitted with suitable surrogate models to probabilistically characterise the struck ship damage under collisions. As demonstrated in this paper, such models are extremely useful to reduce the computational complexity in obtaining probabilistic design measures for ship structures. The proposed probabilistic approach is also combined with available collision frequency models from literature to demonstrate the risk tolerance computations.展开更多
Based on the idea of risk evaluation, the existing lightning damage risk assessment methods are reviewed and summarized in this paper. And the power grid lightning damage risk assessment system is established on the b...Based on the idea of risk evaluation, the existing lightning damage risk assessment methods are reviewed and summarized in this paper. And the power grid lightning damage risk assessment system is established on the basis of lightning flashover risk evaluation methodology for transmission lines, and adopts the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process as the core algorithm. It can comprehensively evaluate the risk for transmission lines of regional grid, various sections of a line and each tower of the section, considering much more impact factors, including the running time of line, importance of grades, equipment damage, and the success rate of lightning stroke reclosing and so on. According to the calculation results of the risk assessment of the analytic hierarchy process and lightning flashover risk evaluation, the principles and methods of grade classification for power grid lightning damage risk map are studied, and give typical examples in the paper. It can describe the lightning withstanding ability much more scientifically and provide important references for the manage department of power system.展开更多
A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise ...A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subjected to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. The paper shows an illustrative example of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.展开更多
文摘he stress-strength interferenee model can be used for the structure with-out fatigue cracks. It is not available for the structure that is often damaged slightlysuch as propellers. A two-dimensional interferenee reliability model using thetwo-dimensional fatigue load distribution and the distribution of fatigue crack growththreshold for the reliability of the structure with fatigue crack is established. The relia-bility of the propeller of Y7-200B with different crack sizes is listed. A damage toler-ance analysis using an interference integration formula with the two-dimensional loaddistribution is carried out for the propeller and the fatigue crack inspection period withgiven reliability is presented.
文摘Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by considering the variability of ship collision scenario parameters. However, the existing models were limited by the capability of the collision computational models and did not completely capture collision scenario, and material and geometric uncertainties. In this paper, a novel framework to performance characterisation of ships in collision involving a variety of striking ships is developed, by characterising the structural consequences with efficient response models. A double-hull oil carrier is chosen as the struck ship to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Response surface techniques are employed to generate the most probable input design sets which are used to sample an automated finite element tool to compute the chosen structural consequences. The resulting predictor-response relationships are fitted with suitable surrogate models to probabilistically characterise the struck ship damage under collisions. As demonstrated in this paper, such models are extremely useful to reduce the computational complexity in obtaining probabilistic design measures for ship structures. The proposed probabilistic approach is also combined with available collision frequency models from literature to demonstrate the risk tolerance computations.
文摘Based on the idea of risk evaluation, the existing lightning damage risk assessment methods are reviewed and summarized in this paper. And the power grid lightning damage risk assessment system is established on the basis of lightning flashover risk evaluation methodology for transmission lines, and adopts the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process as the core algorithm. It can comprehensively evaluate the risk for transmission lines of regional grid, various sections of a line and each tower of the section, considering much more impact factors, including the running time of line, importance of grades, equipment damage, and the success rate of lightning stroke reclosing and so on. According to the calculation results of the risk assessment of the analytic hierarchy process and lightning flashover risk evaluation, the principles and methods of grade classification for power grid lightning damage risk map are studied, and give typical examples in the paper. It can describe the lightning withstanding ability much more scientifically and provide important references for the manage department of power system.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2602105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52378295)+2 种基金Guangdong Province Natural Science Foundation(No.2024A1515010296)Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent and Resilient Structures for Civil Engineering (No.2023B1212010004)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (No.KQTD20210811090112003)。
文摘A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subjected to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. The paper shows an illustrative example of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.
