Economic development, energy demand, and carbon emission prospects ofChina's provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan period: Application ofCMRCGE model

This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.

Economists’Judgement on China’s Socio-Economic Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

2020 is the final year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period and an intersection between the“two centennial goals.”It is also a vital year for drafting the 14th Five-year Plan and embarking on a new journey of socialist modernization.What socio-economic progress has China achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and what are the opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period?In May 2020,the China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey among economists.Results suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China has achieved remarkable progress in the following areas:significant socio-economic development,deepening industry-ICT integration,and rapid growth of new economy;mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation,and enhanced R&D capabilities for cutting-edge technologies;green production and the abatement of air and water pollution;and poverty reduction.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,opportunities co-exist with challenges for China’s socio-economic development,which brims with resiliency.Surveyed economists felt sanguine about China’s development outlook.Based on the results,surveyed economists believed that the Chinese government should focus on the following priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period:expediting industrial transition,strengthening the real economy,and exploring domestic consumption potentials;ramping up research in fundamental science,and accelerating the research of critical technologies;increasing equal access to basic public services;and promoting green development in all respects,including green consumption,production,distribution,innovation,and finance.

China’s 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans:Review and Advice

The 13th Five-year Plan period ushered in a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.During this period,China’s economy transitioned from rapid to high-quality growth and weathered the storms of the trade war with the United States and the COVID-19 outbreak.Chinese policymakers embraced new development concepts,and fought to cut overcapacity and excess inventory,deleverage,lower costs,and bolster weak areas under the theme of supply-side structural reforms.In fighting the three tough battles of major risk prevention,targeted poverty reduction and pollution abatement,China has largely resolved myriad structural contradictions and maintained rapid domestic economic growth and stability.Most targets for the 13th Five-year Plan period have been achieved ahead of time or are near completion on time.Institutional sophistication has bolstered high-quality development.

Development Trend of Energy and Key Points of Ecological Environment Protection in China's "14^(th) Five-Year Plan" Period

From the changes of total primary energy consumption and primary energy consumption structure,installed capacity and power generation of secondary energy(electricity),etc.,the development characteristics of China's energy structure in the"13^(th) Five-Year Plan"period was comprehensively studied.Combined with the complexity of the international situation,the diversification of the domestic energy system,the intelligence of the energy industry,etc.,the situation and challenges faced by China's energy development were deeply discussed in the four aspects of energy security,energy low-carbon transformation,energy system efficiency,and energy technology level.From the angle of ecological environment protection,the development of energy in the"14^(th) Five-Year Plan"period in China was analyzed,and some policies and measures were put forward.

China’s Rural Development in the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan Period

The 14^(th) Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025)is a critical transition for China’s social and economic development.After achieving moderate prosperity and eradicating absolute poverty in 2020,China will embark upon a new journey towards an affluent society with rural revitalization replacing poverty eradication as a new priority of government agenda on agriculture and rural affairs.In the 14^(th) FYP period,China should increase rural prosperity in all respects,modernize agriculture and the countryside,address food security challenges,raise farmers’incomes,and roll out rural reforms.

Towards carbon neutrality and China's 14th Five-Year Plan: Clean energy transition, sustainable urban development, and investment priorities

China's 14th Five-Year Plan,for the period 2021e25,presents a real opportunity for China to link its longterm climate goals with its short-to medium-term social and economic development plans.China's recent commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 has set a clear direction for its economy,but requires ratcheting up ambition on its near-term climate policy.Against this background,this paper discusses major action areas for China's 14th Five-Year Plan after COVID-19,especially focusing on three aspects:the energy transition,a new type of sustainable urban development,and investment priorities.China's role in the world is now of a magnitude that makes its actions in the immediate future critical to how the world goes forward.This decade,2021e2030,is of fundamental importance to human history.If society locks in dirty and high-carbon capital,it raises profound risks of irreversible damage to the world's climate.It is crucial for China to peak its emissions in the 14th Five-Year Plan(by 2025),making the transition earlier and cheaper,enhancing its international competitiveness in growing new markets and setting a strong example for the world.The benefits for China and the world as a whole could be immense.

Vehicle emissions of primary air pollutants from 2009 to 2019 and projection for the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing, China

Over the past decade,the emission standards and fuel standards in Beijing have been upgraded twice,and the vehicle structure has been improved by accelerating the elimination of 2.95 million old vehicles.Through the formulation and implementation of these policies,the emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),nitrogen oxides(NO_(x)),and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))in 2019 were 147.9,25.3,43.4,and 0.91 kton in Beijing,respectively.The emission factor method was adopted to better understand the emissions characteristics of primary air pollutants from combustion engine vehicles and to improve pollution control.In combination with the air quality improvement goals and the status of social and economic development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in Beijing,different vehicle pollution control scenarios were established,and emissions reductions were projected.The results show that the emissions of four air pollutants(CO,VOCs,NO_(x),and PM_(2.5))fromvehicles in Beijing decreased by an average of 68% in 2019,compared to their levels in 2009.The contribution of NOx emissions from diesel vehicles increased from 35% in 2009 to 56% in 2019,which indicated that clean and energy-saving diesel vehicle fleets should be further improved.Electric vehicle adoption could be an important measure to reduce pollutant emissions.With the further upgrading of vehicle structure and the adoption of electric vehicles,it is expected that the total emissions of the four vehicle pollutants can be reduced by 20%-41% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

中国石化“十三五”油气勘探进展与“十四五”前景展望

深入总结中国石油化工股份有限公司(简称中国石化)“十三五”期间在不同勘探领域取得的各项成果,梳理和分析油气成藏理论新认识和技术新进展,以期为“十四五”发展规划编制提供依据。5年来,中国石化大力推进高质量勘探,通过攻关中西部三大盆地海相碳酸盐岩、四川盆地致密气及深层—常压页岩气、东部成熟探区复杂隐蔽油气藏、中西部碎屑岩致密油气等领域的油气富集理论、甜点预测技术及低成本工程工艺技术,发现并培育了塔里木盆地顺北油田、四川盆地涪陵页岩气田两个10×10^(8)t级大油气田,拓展了6个亿吨级规模效益增储阵地。通过中国石化矿权区油气资源赋存状况研究,明确了“十四五”发展思路及措施:立足长期低油价下高质量发展,加大勘探力度,拓展资源类型、突出区带整体、注重低品位盘活,加快推进勘探大突破大发现,预计新增探明石油地质储量9.6×10^(8)t、天然气地质储量1.16×10^(12)m^(3)。为确保发展目标顺利实现,提出了持续加大勘探投入、加大地震勘探、加强风险勘探、加强科技创新、提升工程技术5项保障措施。

中国石化“十三五”天然气勘探进展与前景展望

“十三五”以来,中国石油化工股份有限公司(以下简称中国石化)全面贯彻落实“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略和“大力提升国内油气勘探开发力度”重要批示的精神,油气勘探工作以战略突破与规模增储为核心,加强理论与技术创新,大打高质量勘探进攻仗,取得了一批重要的油气勘探成果。为了加快推动中国石化天然气业务的发展,在全面梳理“十三五”以来天然气勘探成果,理论、技术进展的基础上,展望了未来中国石化天然气勘探的方向和发展潜力。研究结果表明:①“十三五”以来,中国石化坚持“海相陆相并举、常规非常规并重”的战略部署,按照“做大海相常规气、做强海相页岩气、做优陆相致密气”的思路,创新发展了我国南方海相页岩气、中西部海相碳酸盐岩、中西部致密碎屑岩领域的油气成藏理论;②攻关形成了基于储层识别描述与甜点预测为核心的三维地震勘探技术,攻关集成了深层/超深层钻完井、酸压测试、长水平井压裂与超大功率电动成套压裂、易钻复合桥塞等配套装备与工具;③在海相页岩、海相碳酸盐岩、陆相致密碎屑岩等3大领域取得了一系列天然气勘探成果,新增天然气探明储量1.0068×10^(12) m^(3),为中国石化天然气产量快速增长提供了优质资源保障;④展望未来,中国石化探区具有较雄厚的天然气资源基础,我国中西部海相碳酸盐岩、中西部致密碎屑岩、海域深层碎屑岩、东部成熟探区深层碎屑岩与火成岩等领域是其天然气勘探发展的主要方向。结论认为,“十四五”期间,预计中国石化可新增天然气探明储量1.16×10^(12)~1.36×10^(12) m^(3),可以为我国天然气大发展夯实资源基础。

中国石油“十三五”物探技术进展及“十四五”发展方向思考

“十三五”期间,中国石油天然气股份有限公司(简称中国石油)根据日益复杂的油气勘探开发对象,分盆地、分领域制定物探技术政策,强化地震采集源头设计,严格过程管控,确保部署成效;开展老资料精细处理解释,挖掘资料潜力,瞄准生产瓶颈难题,强化科研攻关,提高解疑能力;强化分盆地、分领域技术研讨交流,加强物探地质复合型人才培养,提升人才素质和技术应用水平;强化基础工作,实施精益管理,促进有序稳健发展;发展完善了6类物探技术系列,形成19项关键技术,有力支撑了中国石油原油产量稳中有升、天然气业务快速发展。“十四五”油气勘探开发重心不断向深层—超深层、页岩油气,以及强复杂地表更复杂领域转移,提高难动用储量开发成效、提高老油气田采收率也面临技术挑战。为了满足新形势下油气勘探开发需求,针对八大重点领域,中国石油将按照集成推广、科研攻关、试验探索3个层次,发展高效、低成本、高精度物探技术,重点发展智能物探、深层地球物理勘探、油藏地球物理、井中地震等全新一代物探技术。

China’s Economic Development in the New Era: Challenges and Paths

China’s economy has seen rapid development ever since its reform and opening-up strategy was launched in 1978.Strong economic expansion over the past four decades has taken China from low-income to upper-middle-income status.Looking back at the transformation that China has made,however,we must recognise that the old growth story is coming to an end.The phase of development driven by investment in physical capital will be increasingly supplanted by investment in assets such as knowledge and social capital as well as investment in preservation of natural capital.Recognising the challenges that China is facing,with this paper we aim to offer an approach to growth and development that could spell out a new development strategy for the country as the 21st century progresses.China will focus on the technologies with high-quality growth prospects:modern service sectors,including health,education,transport,communications and IT,artificial intelligence,finance,logistics,sustainable urban infrastructure and new food and land-use systems.With today’s technologies,China can help the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries embark on a much more sustainable,more efficient and greener form of development,avoiding historical problems of pollution and congestion,with China itself moving up the value chain at the same time.

The Next Five Years(2022-2027)Will Be Crucial for Building a Modern Socialist Country in All Respects:Implications from the Report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC

As pointed out in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the next five years(2022-2027)will be crucial for beginning to build a modern socialist country in all respects.Firstly,the next five years will be a period of historical transition in the central task of the CPC.The central task of the CPC will be to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects.At this crucial stage for getting our efforts off to a good start,China should understand and pursue the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization.Secondly,the next five years will be a period of deep reform in which strategic opportunities,risks and challenges are concurrent.Alongside a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation well underway,the new principal contradiction facing Chinese society,a historical transition in the central task of the CPC,and a shift in the international balance of power,profound and complex changes are taking place in China's internal and external environment for development.Uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising and must be dealt with appropriately.Thirdly,the next five years will be a key period of achieving China's overall development objectives for 2035.It is a paramount stage of meeting the 14th Five-Year Plan goals,formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan goals,and realizing Chinese modernization by 2035.China should uphold the CPC's overall leadership,follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics,apply a people-centered development philosophy,remain committed to deepening reform and opening up,and carry forward our fighting spirit.Fourthly,the next five years will be a crucial period of accelerating the creation of a new pattern of development and pursuing high-quality development.Chinese modernization should be advanced through a series of strategic initiatives,such as building a high-standard socialist market economy,modernizing the industrial system,propelling rural revitalization across the board,promoting coordinated regional development,and boosting high-standard opening up.Fifthly,the next five years will be an impact period of unprecedented downward pressure on the national economy under various factors and risks beating expectations.In order to achieve the 14th Five-Year Plan goals and the overall development objectives by 2035,it is necessary to defuse the threefold pressure composed of increasing demand shrinkage,supply shocks and flagging market expectations,as well as intensifying potential risks.To accomplish the main objectives and tasks for the next five years,it is necessary to observe objective laws,apply the new development philosophy,continue to pursue economic development as central task,adopt system-based thinking,take steady steps to sustain progress,and promote high-quality development in a scientific and effective manner.

Contributions on the Special-Contracted Teacher Scheme and the Supply of Rural Teachers

In the past decade,the Special-Contracted Teacher Scheme has witnessed remarkable progress,but there are deficiencies including inadequate benefit guarantee for and mixed reviews on the quality of special-contracted teachers.In the context of developing the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)for education and accelerating the modernization of education,the current implementation of the Special-Contracted Teacher Scheme requires to be further examined and judged,to adjust the policy in time and present policy recommendations for the supply of rural teachers during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Therefore,several scholars were invited to contribute to gain insight into this policy from multiple perspectives.

Economic implications of the sixth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee for China’s Hong Kong

The sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC),also known as‘the Sixth Plenum’,was successfully held in Beijing from 8 to 11 November 2021.It passed a historic resolution on the major achievements and historical experience of the CPC over the past 100 years and set forth the direction of China’s development in the next few decades.This paper aims to analyse the conclusions reached in the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC and discuss its economic implications for the Hong Kong SAR.