As an alternative or complementary approach to the classical probability theory,the ability of the evidence theory in uncertainty quantification（UQ） analyses is subject of intense research in recent years.Two state-...As an alternative or complementary approach to the classical probability theory,the ability of the evidence theory in uncertainty quantification（UQ） analyses is subject of intense research in recent years.Two state-of-the-art numerical methods,the vertex method and the sampling method,are commonly used to calculate the resulting uncertainty based on the evidence theory.The vertex method is very effective for the monotonous system,but not for the non-monotonous one due to its high computational errors.The sampling method is applicable for both systems.But it always requires a high computational cost in UQ analyses,which makes it inefficient in most complex engineering systems.In this work,a computational intelligence approach is developed to reduce the computational cost and improve the practical utility of the evidence theory in UQ analyses.The method is demonstrated on two challenging problems proposed by Sandia National Laboratory.Simulation results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method outperforms both the vertex method and the sampling method without decreasing the degree of accuracy.Especially,when the numbers of uncertain parameters and focal elements are large,and the system model is non-monotonic,the computational cost is five times less than that of the sampling method.展开更多
Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported tha...Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantifica- tion(II) theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from different periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.展开更多
The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary r...The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun mine as an example, the geological factors affecting coal and gas outburst were researched. Eight sensitive factors for the outburst of coal and gas were screened out from 11 geological factors using the method of unit classification and the third theory of quantification. On the basis of this, the Zhongmacun coal mine was classified into several divisions. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geological factors of gas outburst forecast.展开更多
The essential principles of the third theory of quantification are discussed, the concept and calculated method of reaction degree are put forward which extend the ap- plying range and scientificalness of the primary ...The essential principles of the third theory of quantification are discussed, the concept and calculated method of reaction degree are put forward which extend the ap- plying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun Mine as example, on the base of analyzing the rules of gas geology synthetically and travers- ing the geological factors infecting coal and gas outburst, the paper adopts the method of combining carving up statistical units with the third theory of quantification, screens out 8 sensitive geological factors from 11 geological indexes and carries through the work of gas geology regionalism to the exploited area of Zhongmacun according to the researching result. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geo- logical factors of gas outburst forecast.展开更多
This paper presents a nonlinear multidimensional scaling model, called kernelized fourth quantification theory, which is an integration of kernel techniques and the fourth quantification theory. The model can deal wit...This paper presents a nonlinear multidimensional scaling model, called kernelized fourth quantification theory, which is an integration of kernel techniques and the fourth quantification theory. The model can deal with the problem of mineral prediction without defining a training area. In mineral target prediction, the pre-defined statistical cells, such as grid cells, can be implicitly transformed using kernel techniques from input space to a high-dimensional feature space, where the nonlinearly separable clusters in the input space are expected to be linearly separable. Then, the transformed cells in the feature space are mapped by the fourth quantification theory onto a low-dimensional scaling space, where the scaled cells can be visually clustered according to their spatial locations. At the same time, those cells, which are far away from the cluster center of the majority of the scaled cells, are recognized as anomaly cells. Finally, whether the anomaly cells can serve as mineral potential target cells can be tested by spatially superimposing the known mineral occurrences onto the anomaly cells. A case study shows that nearly all the known mineral occurrences spatially coincide with the anomaly cells with nearly the smallest scaled coordinates in one-dimensional scaling space. In the case study, the mineral target cells delineated by the new model are similar to those predicted by the well-known WofE model.展开更多
基金supported by the Advanced Research of National Defense Foundation of China(426010501)
文摘As an alternative or complementary approach to the classical probability theory,the ability of the evidence theory in uncertainty quantification（UQ） analyses is subject of intense research in recent years.Two state-of-the-art numerical methods,the vertex method and the sampling method,are commonly used to calculate the resulting uncertainty based on the evidence theory.The vertex method is very effective for the monotonous system,but not for the non-monotonous one due to its high computational errors.The sampling method is applicable for both systems.But it always requires a high computational cost in UQ analyses,which makes it inefficient in most complex engineering systems.In this work,a computational intelligence approach is developed to reduce the computational cost and improve the practical utility of the evidence theory in UQ analyses.The method is demonstrated on two challenging problems proposed by Sandia National Laboratory.Simulation results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method outperforms both the vertex method and the sampling method without decreasing the degree of accuracy.Especially,when the numbers of uncertain parameters and focal elements are large,and the system model is non-monotonic,the computational cost is five times less than that of the sampling method.
基金Project 106084 supported by the Scientific and Technological Research of the Ministry of EducationBK2007701 by the Natural Science Foundation ofJisngsu Province2006CB2022010 by the National Basic Research Program of China and the Qing-lan Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in submerged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantifica- tion(II) theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from different periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.
文摘The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun mine as an example, the geological factors affecting coal and gas outburst were researched. Eight sensitive factors for the outburst of coal and gas were screened out from 11 geological factors using the method of unit classification and the third theory of quantification. On the basis of this, the Zhongmacun coal mine was classified into several divisions. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geological factors of gas outburst forecast.
基金Supported by"973"Key Foundation of China (2002CB211704).
文摘The essential principles of the third theory of quantification are discussed, the concept and calculated method of reaction degree are put forward which extend the ap- plying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun Mine as example, on the base of analyzing the rules of gas geology synthetically and travers- ing the geological factors infecting coal and gas outburst, the paper adopts the method of combining carving up statistical units with the third theory of quantification, screens out 8 sensitive geological factors from 11 geological indexes and carries through the work of gas geology regionalism to the exploited area of Zhongmacun according to the researching result. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geo- logical factors of gas outburst forecast.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40872193)
文摘This paper presents a nonlinear multidimensional scaling model, called kernelized fourth quantification theory, which is an integration of kernel techniques and the fourth quantification theory. The model can deal with the problem of mineral prediction without defining a training area. In mineral target prediction, the pre-defined statistical cells, such as grid cells, can be implicitly transformed using kernel techniques from input space to a high-dimensional feature space, where the nonlinearly separable clusters in the input space are expected to be linearly separable. Then, the transformed cells in the feature space are mapped by the fourth quantification theory onto a low-dimensional scaling space, where the scaled cells can be visually clustered according to their spatial locations. At the same time, those cells, which are far away from the cluster center of the majority of the scaled cells, are recognized as anomaly cells. Finally, whether the anomaly cells can serve as mineral potential target cells can be tested by spatially superimposing the known mineral occurrences onto the anomaly cells. A case study shows that nearly all the known mineral occurrences spatially coincide with the anomaly cells with nearly the smallest scaled coordinates in one-dimensional scaling space. In the case study, the mineral target cells delineated by the new model are similar to those predicted by the well-known WofE model.
